Saturday, April 5, 2025

Doggy's UConn/South Carolina NCAA Championship Game

 



 

                                                      
            2 Seed                                                                1 Seed               
      UConn Huskies                                  South Carolina Gamecocks
            36-3                                                                    35-3

 Sunday April 6th , 2025
3:00 PM  
Amelia Arena
Tampa, Florida 
ESPN


SOUTH CAROLINA | UCONN 
UCONN LEADS 10-5 
H: 5-1 | A: 4-2 | N: 1-2 

12/17/07 #2 UConn 97, USC 39 Storrs, Conn. 
12/28/08 #1 UConn 77, USC 48 Columbia, S.C. 
02/09/15 #2 UConn 87, #1 USC 62 Storrs, Conn. 
02/08/16 #1 UConn 66, #2 USC 54 Columbia, S.C. 
02/13/17 #1 UConn 66, #6 USC 55 Storrs, Conn. 
02/01/18 #1 UConn 83, #7 USC 58 Columbia, S.C. 
03/26/18 #1 UConn 94, #7 USC 65 Albany, N.Y. 
02/11/19 #4 UConn 97, #11 USC 79 Hartford, Conn. 
02/10/20 #1 USC 70, #5 UConn 52 Columbia, S.C. 
02/08/21 #2 UConn 63, #1 USC 59 (OT) Storrs, Conn.
11/22/21 #2 UConn 57, #1 USC 73 Paridise Island, Bahamas
04/03/22 #1 USC 64, #5 UConn 49 Minneapolis, Minn.
2/4/23 #1 USC 81, #5 UConn 77 Hartford, Conn. 
02/11/24 #1 USC 83, #11 UConn 65 Columbia, S.C.
02/16/24 #4 USC 58, #7 UConn 87 Columbia, S.C.

***************************

    Comparative Team Statistics

                                            UConn                                 South Carolina

                                              81.7         PPG                            79.7
                                              52.0        Defensive PPG             57.4
                                              29.7        Scoring Margin            22.3
                                              51.0        Field Goal %                46.8
                                              34.7        Defensive FG%            35.3 
                                              38.4        Three Point %              34.2
                                              28.8        Defensive 3PT%           29.4
                                              74.6        Free Throw %              76.1
                                              36.9        Rebounds/game            42.1
                                                5.8        Rebounding Margin      7.9 
                                              20.9        Assists per game           16.5
                                              10.6        Turnover per game       12.4
                                                1.5        Assists/TO ratio             1.5
                                              10.2        Steals per game             9.2
                                                4.1        Blocks per game            5.8  
                                                 
 UCONN 


*******************************************************************

SOUTH CAROLINA 



South Carolina Starters


 
Game Analysis

6'2" junior forward Chloe Kitts is a real key for the Gamecocks. The highest scoring starters, she is averaging 10.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG. She is aggressive on the boards and on defense. One word I would use is intense for her attitude. She leads the team in offensive rebounds with 105.  She had 6 points and 5 rebounds in the first UConn game in 21 minutes.

Te-Hina Paopao is a 5'9" senior guard. She is fourth on the team in scoring at 9.6 PPG and has a terrific Assist/Turnover ratio with 110/46 as the second point guard on the floor. She is shooting a solid 37.6% on threes but her knack is hitting the big three pointer. She struggled with that in the first UConn game scoring ten points and only going 2-6 on threes in 29 minutes.   

Bree Hall, a 6' senior guard, was valuable off the bench last season and has been starting all year. Her scoring is down this year as she is averaging 6.4 PPG and while she doesn't score a lot she is a terrific and clutch three point shooter at 38.9%. Not a great ball handler, like many South Carolina players, it's her defense that gets her minutes. She had 7 points and 5 rebounds in 29 minutes against UConn in their first matchup. 

5'8" RS junior Raven Johnson is a talented player. She is second on the team with 107 assists and only 39 turnovers. Her issue is scoring. She is averaging 4.9 PPG and is shooting threes at 29.5% although she only takes 2 per game. She leads the team in steals with 1.4 per game.  She was scoreless in 24 minutes with 4 rebounds and 3 assists against UConn in the first matchup. 

Sania Feagin is the "Big" for South Carolina since Watkins was injured. The 6'3" Senior forward is averaging 8.1 PPG and 4.6 RPG in only 19 MPG minutes. Those numbers are basically the same as last season. She leads the team in blocks with 1.5 BPG. They really needed more from her this year. She only played 13 minutes and had 4 points, 4 assists and zero blocks against UConn in the first game.   

As usual the bench is a big part of the South Carolina team. And for this version of the Gamecocks, the two leading scorers are young and talented.

Freshman Joyce Edwards, a 6'2" Forward, is the leading scorer on the team at 12.7 PPG and second in rebounding at 5.1 RPG. She has become the best player on the team. She is shooting 53.5% from the field.  She played 29 minutes in the first UConn game scoring 17 point and grabbing 5 rebounds. She added 2 blocks. 

Sophomore MiLaysia Fulwiley, a 5'10" firebrand guard is second on the team in scoring at 11.3 PPG. She loves to play with some flash. Behind the back moves, look away passes and long range threes. Also second on the team in steals. She is just fun to watch. But was flashy as she is, she has issues. She only shoots 42.4% from the field and 25.8% on threes. It's not only the low percentage, she sometimes picks the worst time to take the bad shot. In the first UConn game she had 11 points, 2  turnover and 0 assists in 17 minutes. . 

The third bench player that will see time in this game is 6' sophomore guard Tessa Johnson. She plays 21 MPG and averages 8.3 PPG. She is shooting 44-103 on threes, 42.7%. She had one of the worst games of her young career against UConn in the first matchup. She was scoreless going 0-4 on threes, her only shots. She had 1 assists and 1 turnover.    

They played Maryam Dauda, a 6'4" Junior forward, sixteen minutes against Texas. After averaging only 6 MPG on the season. I'm not sure why Dawn did this before the UConn game. Will she see minutes in this one?    

Any way you look at it, Dawn is most likely only playing 8 players against UConn with significant minutes.

Ok. That's a writeup on the players. So how will this game play out?

I'm starting with what Geno said when talking about playing them again. He said he was the only one not happy about winning by 29 points in the first matchup. He knew they would be playing again. And here we are. I agree with him that you have to completely drop the first game when analyzing this game. Certainly South Carolina has to improve on a few things to make a game of it. 

The Gamecocks have to play better defense. The Huskies had several back door layups. Just some lazy defense by SC. 

They also have to get back quicker on defense and slow down the Huskies attack. I'm not sure they have the players to do that. 

They have to shoot better, mostly three pointers. The Gamecocks were 3-17 in the first matchup. Against Texasm they were 7-11 on threes, with PaoPao going 3-4. They need that type of performance.

It was shocking to see how UConn dominated the boards in that first matchup 48-29. Crazy. The Gamecocks will have to do much better.

All that being said, you know that Dawn will have her team foaming at the mouth. Their effort will be supreme. It will be up to the Huskies to match that intensity and bring the game to them. 

Matchup wise, UConn really does have several advantages.The top 3 scorer for UConn vs the top 3 scorer for South Carolina. It's not close. Bueckers, Strong and Fudd vs Kitts/PaoPao, Fulwiley and Edwards. 

If you are looking for a surprise player to make a difference, look for El Alfy to build on her effort against Betts with a terrific game against Feagin. 

UConn will do what they have done the last 15 games where the closest game was 14 against USC, 19 and 20 points against Creighton. Their average MOV was 83-50-23 points.   
 
All that being said......... 
Final Prediction

I just can't see this game being anything like the UConn/UCLA game or the first UConn/Sourh Carolina game. It's going to be a real battle. I can see the Gamecocks hitting a better percentage of their threes. And play the Huskies tough on the boards. But this game will be too much Paige, Azzi and Sarah. I'm not sure this version of South Carolina can handle UConn's offense and score enough against the great defense the Huskies are playing.  

Championship No. 12. 

UConn by 9+.    
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Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Doggy's UConn/UCLA National Semi-Final Pregame Report



 2 Seed UConn Huskies                                  1 Seed UCLA Bruins    35-3                                                                     34-2

Friday, April 4, 2025
Time: 9:30
Amelia Arena
Tampa, Florida
TV: ESPN 

**********************************************************

Prior Match ups 

UCLA | UCONN LEADS 7-1 
H: 1-0 | A: 2-0 | N: 4-1 

11/17/98 #2 UConn 113, UCLA 102 Los Angeles, Calif. 
12/23/99 #1 UConn 106, UCLA 64 Storrs, Conn. 
12/21/14 #2 UConn 86, UCLA 50 Uncasville, Conn. 
03/25/17 #1 UConn 86, #15 UCLA 71 Bridgeport, Conn. 
11/21/17 #1 UConn 78, #5 UCLA 60 Los Angeles, Calif. 
03/29/19 #2 UConn 69, #20 UCLA 61 Albany, N.Y
12/11/21 #3 UConn 71, UCLA 61 Newark, N.J.
11/24/23 #2 UCLA 78, #6 UConn 67 Cayman Islands

UCLA Season to Date

What a great year to date for the UCLA Bruins. They have only lost two games this year (so far!) and both of them were to the team UConn just beat USC.  They lost at USC 71-60 on February 13th and then at home on March 1st 80-67. They did get retribution, beating the Trojans 72-67 in the BIG TEN finals. 

Among their best wins was a beat down of South Carolina 77-62. 

They have had a solid NCAA tournament, easily winning their 1-16 game against Southern 84-46, beating 8 seeded Richmond 84-67, taking it to 5 seed Ole Miss 76-62 in the Sweet Sixteen and then finally a 72-65 win over 3 seed LSU in the Elite Eight to get to the Final Four and their matchup against the Huskies.   
      
Comparative Team Statistics
     (leader in bold)

                                                    UConn                                         UCLA

                                              81.6        PPG                             78.7
                                              52.0        Defensive PPG            57.9
                                              29.6        Scoring Margin            20.8
                                              50.9        Field Goal %                48.2
                                              34.6        Defensive FG%           35.2 
                                              38.3        Three Point %              33.7
                                              28.9        Defensive 3PT%          29.0
                                              76.4        Free Throw %              72.8
                                              37.0        Rebounds/Game          42.9
                                                5.9        Rebounding Margin      12.3 
                                              21.0        Assists per game          20.4
                                              10.7        Turnover per game       15.1
                                                2.0        Assists/TO ratio              1.4
                                              11.4        Steals per game             7.2
                                                4.1        Blocks per game             5.4

                                    
 UCONN 
*******************************************************************

Game Analysis

This is a real interesting matchup. Both  teams are terrific offensively and defensively. 

Offensive Rankings

UConn is 1st in FG percentage, 3rd in assists per game,  1st in assists/TO ratio, 9th in scoring offense, 5th in three point percentage.  

UCLA is 6th in FG percentage, 4th in assists per game, 11th in assists/to ratio, 18th in scoring offense.

Defensive Rankings

UConn is 4th in defensive FG%, 39th in Rebounding Margin, 1st in scoring defense, 17th in steals per game.  

UCLA is 6th in defensive FG%, 6th in rebounds per game, 2nd in rebounding margin, 11th in Blocks per game (Betts), 44th in scoring defense.

Clearly UCLA has the advantage in rebounding. It's a huge part of their game. UConn is just the most efficient offensive team in the country. Both are very good defensive teams.  

On to the players. I posted 8 players for UCLA but I am no sure they will go that deep with that many players out there for double digit minutes. They didn't in the LSU game.

UCLA STARTERS

The star of the team and the most indispensable player is 6'7" Junior Center Lauren Betts. She leads the team in scoring at 20 PPG, rebounding at 9.6 RPG, Blocks at 3 per game. She is 5th in the country in BPG. She leads the team in free throws attempted but only hits them at 61%. That can be an issue in a game like this where every point will matter. She is shooting a terrific 64.9% from the field, 4th in the country. Betts is just a load in the middle. You can't move her and she will move her defender to get position in the paint. She has excellent hands and solid moves to the basket. UConn's bigs will have to work hard to slow her down. The Huskies did a good job last year when they played holding her to 13 points and 7 rebounds and she didn't block a shot.

KiKi Rice, their 5'11" Junior point guard, is the only other double digit scorers on the team. She is averaging 12.4 PPG and 5 assist. She has 167  assists and 70 turnovers, a very good assist/turnover ratio. Rice leads the team in steals with 48. She only takes around 2.5 threes per game making them at a 36.1% clip. Rice was the difference maker in last seasons UCLA win over UConn. She almost had a triple double with 24 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists. It was probably the best game of her career. 

Gabriela Jaquez, a 6' Junior Guard, is a jack of all trades for UCLA. She is averaging 9.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG and a solid 76/32 Assist/TO ratio. She is the only other player besides Betts to shoot better than 50%, with 53.5%. She is a good three point shooter as well at 36%. She came off the bench in last years game and scored 7 points and grabbed 6 rebounds against UConn.

Londynn Jones is a 5'4" Junior Guard. This mighty mite just loves the three point shot. Last season she broke the UCLA record for three pointers made. And this year she has taken over 200 three pointers. Shooting an OK 35%, the Huskies will have to keep an eye on her. She is averaging 8.7 PPG. Her issue is that if she doesn't take three pointers she is only shooting 33.6% on two pointers. She had a tough game against UConn last year going 1-5 from the field and all three pointers. 

Angela Dugalić is the final starter. The 6'4" Grad Student forward. She is averaging 7.4 PPG and 5.7 RPG. She also takes care of the ball with a solid assist to turnover ratio of 80/54. She is second on the team in blocks with 28 on the season. She had a tough game in last years matchup going 1-7 from the field  and going 1-3 on threes for her only points. She did grab 7 rebounds so her effort wasn't a total loss.    

UCLA BENCH

Timea Gardiner is a 6'3" Grad Student Forward is a transfer from Oregon State. She is averaging 7.7 PPG and 3.5 RPG. She can really shoot the ball, hitting her three pointers at 39.9%. She was brought in to hit three pointers and that is about all she can contribute. But she could hit a couple of big ones. It's not a good idea to leave her open. Timea was not on the team the last time UConn played UCLA.

Janiah Barker, a 6'4" Junior forward is a transfer from Texas A&M. The perennial underachiever is still not playing to what was her expected level when she was first coming into WCBB. This year she is averaging only 17.4 MPG. Scoring 7.4 PPG and grabbing 6 RPG there has always been a "I want to see more" attitude from the fans. She is shooting a solid 46.4% from the field but a horrific 15.6% on threes going 5-32. Barker is new to the team and did not play in last years contest against UConn.    

They do have a freshman guard Elina Aamisaio, a 5'10" freshman guard. I'm not sure how many minutes she will see in this game. She is averaging 5.1 PPG and 2.3 RPG. Elina is second on the team in assists with 128. That works out to around 3.5 per game. Not a great shooter going 16-62 on threes, I don't expect her to see many minutes in this game.  

Final Prediction 

Well, here we go. Final Four!! And the big question is can Paige score 30+ in one more game? She did last season in the loss to UCLA. She had 31 points. But UConn was just awful in this loss shooting 33.3% from the field and that's with shooting 39% on threes. I seriously doubt we see anything like that in this game.

Lots of questions on how UConn will play Betts. They can't let her dominate the paint. Can Jana and Ice keep her in check? Probably not, certainly not 1-1. But Geno will have defensive schemes to double her from different directions. The bigger issue is slowing down Rice. I'm sure the returning UConn players remember that game well where Rice was just dominating.

I'm not overly impressed with the other players besides Betts and Rice. I'm sure they will have their moments but UConn just too talented for this Bruin squad.

Betts will have to play 35+ minutes for UCLA to have a chance. And I'm not sure doing that doesn't create diminishing returns due to fatigue.   

Experience wise?  From ESPN - "Except for assistant coach Shannon LeBeauf, who was an assistant on Duke's 2006 national runner-up, no Bruins player or coach has been to a Final Four. Perhaps it won't matter, but history says otherwise. Not since the 2006 Maryland Terrapins has a team won a national championship without having a coach or a player go through the experience first."

As much of a matchup problem Betts can be, UConn's offense will be a big challenge for UCLA. Multiple three point shooters, a matchup nightmare in Sarah Strong and in my mind, the no doubt best players in WCBB Paige Bueckers. I am hopeful that Azzi Fudd uses that fourth quarter outburst to shoot the lights out against the Bruins.   

Bottome line?

I like UConn by 7+.
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