Saturday, January 8, 2022

Doggy's Doghouse 1/8/2022

 






 








                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
                    ****************************************************

GO UCONN!!!!!

**************************************************


So, while I'm basking in the sun in Florida, my wonderful grandsons are enjoying the snow in Connecticut.

I miss them, but I don't miss the snow!!!!

**************************************************

3 weeks, 4 postponements, and a ton of boredom, UConn women's basketball is finally playing again!!

It's been difficult to get motiviated to blog about all the other games when the team I love can't get on the court. 

I can't even imagine what the players and coaching staff is going through. 

If you watch Geno's interview, you can see the stress on his face. He put it best when he said it's like starting the season over again. 
 
So, like the players, I have to jump back in. And we can start with the next game, Sunday at 1:00 against Creighton.

Let's look at UConn first. When we left off, UConn was playing a 6 player rotation. They started Williams, Westbrook, Ducharme, Juhasz and Nelson-Ododa. And the only player off the bench was Edwards. 

Since that game, over the next 21 days, UConn has added back only one player. But she is very important to the team. Nika Muhl is now available for 15 minutes. I'm doubtful on those minutes. It could definately be more if needed.

Geno now has another guard to add to the rotation, and this is huge in regards to minutes. It was clear in the last game that Williams and Westbrook were a little gassed. Not just physically but mentally. Geno now has three (or four with Ducharme) guards to rotate and 3 (or four with Ducharme) forwards to rotate. A much better situation. 

The bad news on the injury front is it looks like Aubrey Griffin is out for the season. She has a disc problem and Geno said it will probably be season ending surgery. So sad for her, but get the surgery and come back stronger than ever!! 

Azzi Fudd is moving closer to returning. I'm glad to see them taking their time with her. Geno said she will start running next week. That's a big step in her rehabbing that foot. If she can handle the pressure on the healing stress reaction, she could be back by the end of January. 

The best news to me was what Geno had to say about Paige Bueckers. “She feels good. She looks good. She obviously is, as you can imagine, disappointed that she has to miss all this time. She’s probably the only one happy those games were all postponed". 

Something tells me it could be a little sooner. I'm praying for a 2/6 return against Tennessee. How great would that be?

Creighton, UConn's opponent Sunday, is on a four game winning streak and looking good. They beat a good Arkansas team and hammered Marquette in their last game. The Bluejays are not a big team with only two players over 6' tall, yet they outrebounded Marquette 40-29. But their strength is their pressure defense and really good three point shooting. Similar to the old DePaul teams, it's not just one or two players that can hit the three pointers, it's 6 or 7 that will put em up from long range. It will be a tough match for the Huskies.

Creighton spreads around the minutes and the points pretty evenly between their players. They have 8 players who play double digit minutes and two others that play 9.4 and 8.9 MPG. And it's not just in blowouts. Like their players say, "Depth is our strength". They will throw wave after wave of players at UConn, trying to wear out a team that hasn't played in three weeks. It's a great strategy. Morgan Maley and Lauren Jenson will be taking 3-4 three pointers each in this game.

The Bluejays also do a great job taking care of the ball with an amazing 253/176 assists to turnovers. Wow. Very UConn-like! 

Make no mistake, even at home with great fan support, this is going to be a really, really difficult game. UConn will be fortunate to win this game. And I think they will. 

UConn by 4+.   

**************************************************
UCONN VIDEOS

SILVER LINING!!!

GENO INTERVIEW


WESTBROOK AND DUCHARME INTERVIEW

Uhhh....Did Geno know Paige was on the court??

Ok, I just watched that video, and I was really shocked to see Paige running on the court. She was limping like crazy and at one point, grabbed at her knee. Really? Is this part of the rehab processs?? Geno said she was moving along great. I'm pretty sure that she wouldn't be out there without doctor's permission. But it was pretty scrary to watch!

**************************************************
GAMES

MOST SCORES HAVE CLICKABLE LINKS TO A GAME STORY

UPSETS IN RED




**************************************************
 

Straight from the Dog

Well, I'm back. Hopefully for the rest of the season. Life is really good here in Florida, so I'm very laid back and that makes it harder to put together these blogs. But I'm sure UConn playing will keep me motivated. They have a ton of games to play and two against OOC foes Oregon and South Carolina in January. They haven't rescheduled the four postponed games yet, but with 8 games in 21 days this month, UConn will certainly have the opportunity to get the kinks out. 

A couple of interesting games on Sunday. Both in the SEC. Here is the low down.

No. 1 South Carolina vs No. 21 Kentucky  - The Wildcats are coming off a great win against No. 15 Georgia and will be sky high for this game. Rhyne Howard showed her AA chops with 30 points, and she will need to do even more for Kentucky to beat South Carolina. Gotta go with the Gamecocks, especially at home. 

No. 7 Tennessee, the surprise team this season, is visiting 13-1 Ole Miss. They lost their opening game to Belmont but they have since won 13 straight games. Not exactly against murder's row, but they did beat No. 18 South Florida two games ago. Tennessee is due for a loss but I'm not convinced this will be that game.

Speaking of Tennessee, those crazy Orange fans had an intetesting take on UConn having to postpone so many games. The more their team wins, the more arrogant and obsessed with UConn they get.

"I’m betting Bueckers is out for the season. He’s gonna try to make sure they have an excuse not to play in the NCAA tournament because he knows they are dead in the water. You heard it here first. I won’t be shocked AT ALL if he retires after this season. He’s the kid on the playground who gets stuffed, cries and leaves with the ball." 

"Uconn will be playing Sunday. Geno said one player will be bk from injury...Sir, was that the reason you've not been playing? 🤔 most teams had been playing without their star players sir. He just don't wana fall out of 25 Rank. Or miss NCAA tournament..That would be Geno new history."    

"Does anyone know why UConn has not been playing their games? I guess im open to speculation, but I also would like to know the rules regarding postponement and forfeiture. It seems like lots of teams still play with individuals out due to protocol, and UConn despite their injuries still should have plenty of players to field a team."

There were several more posts saying Geno is not playing these games on purpose to avoid the better teams in the Big East and therefore in conference losses. Let me help them out.

14 player roster to start the season.
2 transfers leaving 12.
5 injuries leaving 7.
3 Covid infections leaving them under the 7 you have to have available to play.
One injured player and 2 Covid players back giving them 7 players so they are playing a game Sunday.

No nefarious ducking of games as some there would like to believe. Morons.

******************************************************** 

By Phil 


Tempest in a teapot

There's a recent tempest in a teapot. One of the key statements was uttered by Muffet:

"UConn has done great things... But I think it goes over the top with ESPN," McGraw said. "That is Connecticut's network. Notre Dame has NBC. Connecticut has ESPN."

My first observation is that tempests in a teapot often arise when there is too little to talk about. The dozens of Covid induced cancellations are worth talking about, but there's only so much you can say. The dozens of missing games mean you are trying to replace dozens of storylines with one. Nature abhors a vacuum, and that vacuum will be filled. There aren't enough meaningful games to talk about to fill up the space so sportswriters reach out to retired coaches hoping to find something to discuss. There's a delicious bit of irony that sportswriters think a potshot claiming that UConn gets too much media coverage is worthy of media coverage.

I recently expressed my view that Geno should not feed the troll, so shouldn't I take that same advice? No, because Geno's position means he should try to stay above the fray, and I'm a fan so if I wrestle in the mud, I might even like it. More seriously, I'm not going to address Muffett per se, but discuss the view that ESPN is biased in favor of UConn, a view which is espoused by many not just her.

Long before Notre Dame dropped out of the top tier of teams, even before they ascended to the top tier of teams for a brief visit, even before UConn became synonymous with excellence in sport, there were other women's basketball teams who dominated the sport's conversations. Yes, there was a period of time when Tennessee was king of the hill. They didn't win every year; various teams had good years, challenged them and sometimes even beat them, but there was a long period of time when discussions about women's basketball were Tennessee and whomever was challenging them at the time. Then along came UConn, and Tennessee fans felt this was one more upstart who would be a brief flash in the pan and then disappear. Except that didn't happen. The king of the hill pushed, but UConn feinted and the king fell down the hill. The fans don't like it, which makes them just like fans always and everywhere.

Fans don't like admitting that their team is quite as good as they used to be, so they look for excuses. One common excuse is that sportswriters are playing up some other team, even though their team, of course, is still the very best. Some of them come up with color-coded Excel spreadsheets proving that their team, despite barely getting invited to the tournament and leaving early, is still really the best team in the country. I daresay UConn fans will engage in the someday but that day is still in the future.

It's easy for any fan to observe three factual statements:
1. ESPN is headquartered in Connecticut
2. UConn is headquartered in Connecticut
3. ESPN spends a lot of time talking about UConn
Then think there is an obvious syllogism 1 and 2 and 3 -> 4 ESPN is biased in favor of UConn

That inference is not trivial to prove or disprove.
It's absolutely true that ESPN covers UConn more than lots of teams. However that's not the assertion. The assertion is that UConn is covered more than they deserve, which cannot possibly be answered without figuring out how much they deserve to be covered.

I don't know an easy way to design a metric to figure out how much coverage a team deserves to receive.

I will suggest one small metric. If a sports organization is biased in favor of a team, the ranking of that team by the organization will be higher than the rankings put together by others.

Let's look at some of the rankings.
As of today 5 January 2022, UConn is ranked as follows:
# 6 NCAA Power Rankings
# 9 Massey
#11 AP
#11 Coaches Poll
#11 Women's Hoops World
#12 ESPN Power Rankings

Yes, six different ranking systems, and five of them rank UConn higher than ESPN. If anyone honestly thinks that ESPN is biased favor of UConn, one would reasonably expect the ESPN ranking to be maybe not the top but above the middle and not in last place. How can one honestly explain how ESPN can be biased in favor of UConn and rank them lower than any of the other services?

******************************************************** 

By David in Naples


Last Sunday, the #1, #2, #3, #6, #7, #8, #10, #12 and #13 teams in the country played games. Since these are the best of the best, their 3 point shooting was probably spectacular, right? Not quite...

Consider:
1. Those 9 teams shot a combined 35-122 or 28.7%.
2. Only 1 of the teams shot better than 35%. South Carolina was 5-14 or 35.7%.
3. #7 Tennessee and #13 Georgia both shot under 17% on their threes. 2-13 combined.
4. Both Tenn. and Georgia won despite bad shooting.
5. Six teams shot worse than 30%.
6. The three teams shooting better than 31% (SC, Stanford & L'Ville) all won. 

UConn now sits at 32% on 154 threes tried in 9 games. Opponents are at 31% on 196 threes.  

Maybe moving the line back in WBB is impacting accuracy...?  Or, maybe it was just a bad weekend for long range shooters.

Go Huskies..!!

******************************************************** 
UCONN LINKS

Muhl set to kick in Journal Inquirer
Just like starting over Journal Inquirer

******************************************************** 

Message Boards

UConn Territory - The best UConn women's message board ever!!! 
Vol Nation - Tennessee women's basketball board
ND Nation - Notre Dame women's basketball board
Rebkell - WCBB for everyone that thinks they are smarter than everyone else



I'm always open for suggestions. Just please reply to this blog or email me at:

Sunday, January 2, 2022

Doggy's Doghouse 1/2/2022

 







 








                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
                    ****************************************************

GO UCONN!!!!!

**************************************************

A ton of games were played Sunday. I've linked all the results and while there were a couple of Top 25 cancellations, there were many games that were able to be played.

And I can't tell you how jealous I am of the fans of those teams. 

Every night, when prepping this blog, I look for articles about UConn to share with you. And when there are no results other than another UConn game being postponed, well, it's painful.  

I see all these teams that I know if everyone was healthy UConn would be sitting at the No. 2 spot right behind South Carolina.

2020 was a really tough season, with no fans and cancelled games and finally the season ending early. But somehow this feels worse, starting with the Bueckers' injury. 

So, what happens next has to be better than what we have now. And something tells me that somehow and sometime this season, UConn will have it's full compliment of players. Hopefully early enough to get several games in together. 

Then LOOK OUT!!!!  

**************************************************

Now it's their turn to be jealous!!!!


"ICE" BRADY - Class of 2022


AYANNA PATTERSON - Class of 2022


KAMOREA ARNOLD - Class of 2023


Straight from the Dog

I wrote about 4 games yesterday and I think I did pretty well in my comments.

No. 3 Louisville take a trip to Georgia Tech to take on the No. 16 Yellow Jackets in a game between two teams that have both beaten UConn this season. This is a really tough one to call, but I will make one prediction, If either team scores more than 59 points they will win this game. Good chance for an upset in this one. 

Result - I was close. The team that scored more than 49 won. A real slugfest that Louisville was able to pull out at the end.  

No. 7 Tennessee goes to Fayetteville to take on unranked Arkansas in two more games that are on UConn's schedule. The Huskies beat Arkansas in their first game of the season. Tennessee has been playing great defense, but again, they have been playing mostly offensivly challenged teams. Their center Key makes it impossible for teams to get to the rim. The Razorbacks will have to hit a ton of threes to pull this one off.

Result - Arkansas was 8-40 on threes. That is an incredible amount of three pointers to put up, but hitting only 20% is really bad. The freshman Wolfenbarger was 2-10 from the field and 0-7 on threes. Tennessee's Key was the difference on defense with five blocks and many other intimidation plays.   

No. 17 Notre Dame visits No. 15 Duke in another ACC tussle. Duke is a tough team to figure. They have played some teams tough. They beat ranked Iowa team by 14 points and played No. 1 South Carolina in a close game. But then they just got hammered by Virginia Tech. Gotta go  with the Irish here, but maybe the Blue Devils will have a bounce back game. I hope so.   

Result - My hopes came true as Duke was able to beat the Irish 72-70 on a couple of late three pointers. It was a great bounce back game by the Blue Devils. 

No. 6 Maryland visits No. 8 Indiana in a huge Big Ten matchup.  I love how the Hoosiers play and if you can watch this game on ESPN2, do it. It will be very entertaining. 

Result - This game was as entertaining as it gets. Back and forth and then into overtime. But like I said, I love how the Hoosiers play and they pulled away in the OT session.  

Two great coachs lock horns when No. 23 Texas A&M travels to Louisiana to take on No. 19 LSU. Gary Blair leads the Aggies against Kim Mulkey's Tigers. At home, I like LSU to take this one.

Result - LSU went ahead and stayed ahead. Mulkey has them playing at a very high level and still only have one loss on the season. They really should crack the Top 15 next week. 

******************************************************** 

By Phil 

Upsets

Inspired by DavidinNaples' observation about potential upsets on the schedule, I thought I would look into it a little more.

I haven’t completely organized my thoughts, but I thought I’d share some preliminary observations.

I looked at the Massey stats where one can see the projected scores along with the implied margin of victory. I arbitrarily selected single digits as potential upset games. In other words, if the expected margin of victory is under 10, I counted it as a game with upset potential. Obviously, upsets can happen even with a larger mismatch – for example, on Thursday 30 December, Brown played St. John’s at St. John’s and was expected to lose by 20 but ended up winning 75–72 – but I’m sticking with single digits for the moment.

Massey has 43 games scheduled today where the projected margin of victory is in single digits. My first instinct was that this was a large number but I haven’t looked at this before so I don’t know that for sure. One complication is that many games have been postponed or canceled so many of those 43 games will not be played today.

After thinking that 43 sounded like a lot, I checked yesterday’s games, and I was surprised to see that 54 had an expected single-digit margin of victory. My off the top of the head guess is that the start of conference play should increase the number of expected close games. This should be easy to check.

However, as we know, many of the games on 1 January were postponed or canceled. Of the 54 potential upset games, only 25 were played. In those 25 games, nine of them were upsets. This strikes me as quite plausible. I haven’t done the math completely, but one ought to guess that a little less than half would end up being upsets.

I looked at the previous day, 31 December. Not a lot of games scheduled, nine had single-digit projected margin of victory but not a single upset. Definitely a small sample but mildly interesting that not a single one of these games turned out to be an upset.

The day before, 30 December, there were 23 games scheduled with a single digit projected margin of victory and 11 almost exactly half turned out to be upsets.
On 29 December, there were 10 potential upsets and six, more than half, turned out to be upsets. Again 10 is a small sample size, so the vagaries of chance makes it likely that there will be some day where there are more than half upsets, and this just barely exceeded 50%.

Someone with better computer skills could probably automate this so that one could look at the entire season and see if anything interesting arises.

******************************************************** 

By David in Naples

Shame on Iowa and Caitlin Clark for stats padding..!  The headlines will read that Clark scored 44 points on 18-26 shooting. Wow, what a player..!!  But a deep dive into the stats show an interesting game plan. 

Consider:
1. Iowa won the game 93-56 and was leading by 30 after 3 periods. 
2. Iowa was playing that basketball juggernaut, the Evansville Purple Aces. Yes, those purple aces..!!
3. Clark scored a basket with 2:47 left in the game to give Iowa 91 points.
4. Clark scored again with 2:22 left in the game to give Iowa 93 points.
5. Iowa played 9 players.
6. Clark took 26 shots. The other 4 starters to 26 shots combined.
7. Clark was 2-7 from 3 pt range.

Pure stat padding by Iowa. Playing Clark and having her score the last 4 points when up by 40 is bush league. Shame..!!

******************************************************** 

Message Boards

UConn Territory - The best UConn women's message board ever!!! 
Vol Nation - Tennessee women's basketball board
ND Nation - Notre Dame women's basketball board
Rebkell - WCBB for everyone that thinks they are smarter than everyone else



I'm always open for suggestions. Just please reply to this blog or email me at:

Saturday, January 1, 2022

Doggy's Doghouse 1/1/2022

 








 








                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
                    ****************************************************

GO UCONN!!!!!

**************************************************
GAMES

MOST SCORES HAVE CLICKABLE LINKS TO A GAME STORY

 
**************************************************
 

Straight from the Dog


Another day and UConn did NOT cancel a game!! They are still on for Friday, 1/7 against Villanova. Fingers crossed. 

Sunday has some great games and I'm just praying that they don't get cancelled!!

No. 3 Louisville take a trip to Georgia Tech to take on the No. 16 Yellow Jackets in a game between two teams that have both beaten UConn this season. This is a really tough one to call, but I will make one prediction, If either team scores more than 59 points they will win this game. Good chance for an upset in this one.

No. 7 Tennessee goes to Fayetteville to take on unranked Arkansas in two more games that are on UConn's schedule. The Huskies beat Arkansas in their first game of the season. Tennessee has been playing great defense, but again, they have been playing mostly offensivly challenged teams. Their center Key makes it impossible for teams to get to the rim. The Razorbacks will have to hit a ton of threes to pull this one off.

No. 17 Notre Dame visits No. 15 Duke in another ACC tussle. Duke is a tough team to figure. They have played some teams tough. They beat ranked Iowa team by 14 points and played No. 1 South Carolina in a close game. But then they just got hammered by Virginia Tech. Gotta go  with the Irish here, but maybe the Blue Devils will have a bounce back game. I hope so.   

No. 6 Maryland visits No. 8 Indiana in a huge Big Ten matchup.  I love how the Hoosiers play and if you can watch this game on ESPN2, do it. It will be very entertaining. 

Two great coachs lock horns when No. 23 Texas A&M travels to Louisiana to take on No. 19 LSU. Gary Blair leads the Aggies against Kim Mulkey's Tigers. At home, I like LSU to take this one.

Severnteen Ranked teams are playing Sunday. Covid be damned!!!  

******************************************************** 
By David in Naples

Christyn Williams is now #28 on the UConn all-time scoring list with 1,496 points. Not bad for a player who many fans say is "not reaching her potential." Just ahead of her at #27 is Asjha Jones at 1,502 points and #26 Mo Jefferson at 1,532 points. She will break into the top 20 all-time when she scores her next 134 points. That should be in 9 or 10 games. She has a chance to end up in the top 15 all-time for the HUskies..!!

The other senior player who fans love to rag on is Olivia Nelson-Ododa. She also is on a UConn all-time list for blocked shots with 224. That is good for #8 all-time behind Napheesa Collier at #7 with 251 blocks. Right after Pheesa is Stef Dolson at #6 with 254 blocks. Reaching those two Huskies is possible, but #5 all-time is Tina Charles at 304 blocks. Probably a bridge too far...

Go Huskies..!!

Not a stat item from David but he posted this on a message board. I'm sure he won't mind if I repeat it here.

In this year of upsets (teams losing, not us being upset at cancelled games), there will be more this weekend. 

Consider:

1. #3 L’Ville has to go down to #16 Georgia Tech - GT is 10-2 and hot.
2. #7 Tennessee heads down to Arkansas (10-3). 
3. #10 Baylor is on the road at Kansas State (10-2).

Road games can be tough. Watch for more than 1 upset...

Meanwhile, UConn hopefully plays Jan 7th or Jan 9th.... hopefully the walking wounded are healed and able to play...

Go Huskies..!

P.S. - Notre Dame also plays Duke on Sunday... hoping for a scoreless tie & 3 recruits decommit...😎

******************************************************** 

Message Boards

UConn Territory - The best UConn women's message board ever!!! 
Vol Nation - Tennessee women's basketball board
ND Nation - Notre Dame women's basketball board
Rebkell - WCBB for everyone that thinks they are smarter than everyone else



I'm always open for suggestions. Just please reply to this blog or email me at: