Monday, January 20, 2020

Doggy's Doghouse 1/20/20








                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

                                                

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Hey, have you heard? UConn is playing Tennessee Thursday night! It's true.

I am working hard on a fact and opinion filled Pregame report. It's almost done!!!

I was waiting until Tennessee completed it's game against Alabama to make sure the stats are up to date.

I'm kinda speechless now after watching that game. It was ugly on ugly throughout the entire game. 

The ending was amazing though. With under 1 second left in the game, Tennessee's Davis hit a 35 foot high arcing three pointer to win the game 65-63. Talk about a Hail Mary. Will this give them momentum for Thursday's game? Doubtful. The adrenaline rush will be gone by them. But a big win for the Lady Vols.  

I'll have more on this game in my pregame report. It impacts my analysis and prediction.
   
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In another near upset, No. 9 Mississippi State came up short in their bid to defeat the current No. 1, South Carolina. The Gamecocks scored the last 5 points of the game to win 81-79. Senior guard Tyasha Harris scored all of those points. 

This has been a fun season so far. You just never know this season. 


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From Phil


My pretend interview with an AP voter:

Me: I noticed that you didn't include Princeton in the top 25

AP voter (in a condescending tone): I am sure you are thinking that with a 13 – 1 record, they ought to be more highly ranked but you can't just look at won-loss record have to look at the strength of their schedule.

Me: According to Massey the strength of schedule is ranked number 68, which is weaker than many of the other teams in the top 25 but that's better than Arkansas's strength of schedule, ranked number 74. Princeton has a better record and a better strength of schedule than Arkansas, but you ranked Arkansas.

AP voter: record and strength of schedule are two of the things to look at, but you have to also look at their best wins. Arkansas has a win over Vanderbilt.

Me: but you had Arkansas ranked several weeks ago long before they played Vanderbilt. Back in early December, their best win was over Belmont, which is not as good a win as Princeton's win over Penn, Marist, or Florida Gulf Coast.

AP voter (sweating a bit): let me look a little closer. Okay, I see the Princeton strength of schedule is slightly better than Arkansas's, but 68 and 74 are pretty much a push, and Arkansas is in a better conference.

Me: but Arkansas hadn't played a conference game at the time you rank them higher. Are you saying you give teams credit for games they going to play in the future?

AP voter (sweating a lot): no no no we don't do that but I'll commit to looking closer next week

Me: While you are looking, can you take a look at Tennessee?

AP voter: Tennessee's been a longtime powerhouse with a reputation for playing a tough schedule and while they have a couple of losses, they are to some pretty good teams.

Me: Tennessee does have a reputation for playing a tough schedule, but at the moment the strength of schedule is number 94 which isn't really close to 68. So Tennessee plays a much weaker schedule than Princeton and has more losses.

AP voter: Remember, you have to look at who they beat. You may have forgotten but they beat Notre Dame.

Me: You mean Notre Dame who is 7 – 12, and ranked number 88 by Massey? Princeton has better wins than that.

AP voter: let me see who else Tennessee beat, oh yeah Georgia.

Me: I you seriously telling me that Tennessee, with more losses than Princeton, a much weaker strength of schedule than Princeton, deserves to be ranked because they beat Georgia? Princeton has a better record, a better strength of schedule, and their best win is over Massey ranked number 25 Florida Gulf Coast. On every single metric (except the conference they belong to) they outperform Tennessee. Sounds to me like you give more credit for conference and pass record than how they are doing currently. Am I wrong?

AP voter: Let me take a closer look next week.


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By David in Naples!!!!

The return of NISE, the Naples Index of Scoring Efficiency. This is a measure of the relationship between points scored and how many shots it took to get those points. For example, this weekend, Megan had 24 points and Destiny Slocum had 26 points for Oregon State. Who was the more efficient scorer?

Well, Megan took 12 shots and 3 free throws. That is 15 scoring chances. She scored 24 points, so her NISE is +9. (24-15=7)  Slocum took 21 shots and 3 free throws, so she had 24 scoring chances. She scored 26 points, so her NISE was +2. Megan had a more efficient scoring game.

For the season, Megan has a NISE of +9. (276 shots + 64 free throws = 340 scoring chances) Subtract 340 from 349 points. Here is the NISE for the starters and main bench players. (In order of points scored)

Crystal has a NISE of +29
Christyn has a NISE of -3
Olivia has a NISE of -19
Anna has a NISE of +4
Aubrey has a NISE of -11
Kyla has a NISE of +15

Note - Good three point shooting can greatly help your NISE. Lousy free throw shooting will definitely hurt your NISE. See Olivia and Aubrey. Combined they have 1 three (1-13) and have missed 36 free throws.

Go Huskies..!!

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