Thursday, November 9, 2023

Doggy's UConn/North Carolina State Pregame Report






VS


Day: Sunday
Date: November 12th , 2023
Time: 3:00 PM  
Location: James T. Valvano Arena
Raleigh, North Carolina
TV: ABC


No. 2 UConn Huskies                 Unranked NC State Wolfpack  
             1-0                                                             1-0      

NC STATE | UCONN LEADS 8-2 
H: 2-1 | A: 2-0 | N: 4-1

 03/21/91 #13 UConn 82, #7 NC State 71 Philadelphia, Pa. 
12/29/91 #13 NC State 62, #19 UConn 59 Storrs, Conn. 
12/10/94 #2 UConn 98, NC State 75 Raleigh, N.C. 
03/23/98 #10 NC State 60, #3 UConn 52 Dayton, Ohio
03/24/01 #1 UConn 72, #18 NC State 58 Pittsburgh, Pa. 
11/24/02 #6 UConn 78, NC State 50 Raleigh, N.C. 
12/29/03 #1 UConn 87, NC State 53 Hartford, Conn. 
03/24/07 #4 UConn 78, #18 NC State 71 Fresno, Calif.
03/28/22 #6 UConn 91 #3 NC State 87 2OT Bridgeport, Conn. 
11/20/22 #5 UConn 91, #10 NC State 69 Hartford, Conn.

NC State Season to Date

North Carolina State is coming off an easy 84-43 win over Charlotte. They rode early hot shooting in the first quarter, jumping out to a 36-8 lead. They were as cold as they were hot in the second quarter where they were outscored 7-5. Two different teams.

Not a lot of info to go by. They took 19 three pointers in the first half and only 8 three pointers in the second half. It looked to me they were trying to go more inside. I'm sure to prep for UConn.   

NCST vs Charlotte Game Highlights

   
     UCONN 



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NC State






NC State Starters


Game Analysis


There is some great history between these two programs. UConn leads the series 8-2 and two years ago they had maybe the best women's basketball game of all time.  A double overtime game with UConn winning 91-87 behind an incredible late game performance by Paige Bueckers. Ok...now just forget about that game. This one will be nothing like it. So many players gone from that game. And last year, with mostly a new group players, UConn was able to beat NCST 91-69. It was pretty ugly.

Last year's game highlights

Once again there is a big roster turnover with only one starter back from last years team. That would be 6' junior guard Madison Hayes. 

Against Charlotte, NCST came out on fire from deep. Especially Aziaha Jame, a 5'9" junior guard. She was 4-5 on threes to start the game. Mimi Collins, a 6'3 forward graduate student  was 2-3 on threes in the first quarter as well. A red hot 6-9 on three pointers in the first quarter leading to a 36-8 lead. But as we know, teams usually come back to earth. I just didn't know how hard they would fall. The only scored 5 points in the second quarter. And they were a big fat goose egg going 0-10 on threes in the second quarter. So are they a great three point shooting team or a really bad three point shooting team?  It's hard to say but they were 3-8 in the second half from deep. They didn't take as many but they didn't shoot that well. They played back to their skill level, shooting 35% in the second half. 

NCST has two really dynamic guards in Zoe Brooks, a 5'10" freshman guard from New Jersey and a name most should be familiar with, 6'1" junior guard Saniya Rivers. Brooks Is a really athletic guard that will have one or two plays during the game where you just shake your head. And Rivers transferred from South Carolina two years ago. She was either 1 or 1A in the same class that Fudd was No. 1 in her class. A superior athlete she is still trying to figure the game out. But you always notice her on the court.   

Laci Steele is another freshman guard that will see time on the court. A very good defender, she is a good rebounder from that spot and is not afraid to take the long range shot. She was 0-4 in their first game. 
   
I'm sure they will take open three pointers but UConn's switching man-to-man will give them fits. They don't have much of an inside game so if the threes aren't falling they will struggle to score against the Huskies. 

Collins is 6'3" but really doesn't play that big. Their other big players really just aren't that good. 6'5" Grad Student River Baldwin played her first three season at Florida State before transferring to NC State last season. She's never averaged more than 6 PPG and 4.6 RPG than she did her last year at FSU. She is a nice backup post, but at NCST she starts. Their other big is another Grad Student Lizzy Williamson. Williamson played her first 3 years at Southern Utah before transferring to NC State over the summer. Her last two years at Southern Utah she nearly averaged a double double but she did it against lower level opponents to put it in perspective. None of the bigs are that mobil. Edwards will have a big advantage.  

When they weren't shooting threes, but went to the basket and forced contact. They had 10 free throws in the first quarter and 12 free throws in the third quarter. It was clearly a strategy in prep for future games including against UConn. 

The Wolfpack play primarily man-to-man defense and usually play it well. Similarly to UConn their switching is so good somethimgs it looked like they are playing a zone.  But we have a lot of new starters and a bunch of freshmen on this team. It's yet to be seen if that will be the same with this roster. 

You can bet that Coach Wes Moore will have his team ready for this game, especially in front of a big crowd at home. 

UConn will do what they usually do. Pressure on defense, play their great switching man-to-man and if NC State can't get open threes or hit a high percentage of them, the Huskies should pull away. Look for a few of those pattened UConn 10-0 runs.  

I'd bet that Paige has a better game, not that the Dayton game was bad. She just looks a little rusty. Her rusty is better than some players best.

Final Prediction

Two different teams from their last matchup but I can't say I believe that both are at the same level that they were last season. Yes, Wes Moore is a great coach, but from what I can see, they are a notch down from that Elite Eight team that played UConn so well two years ago. UConn hammered them last season by 22 points. NC State lost a ton from that team. How good will the players replacing those who left? That is the question. Bench players become starters. It is always an unknown to see how those players respond to more responsibility. Doing it against UConn. Not an easy task. 

The Huskies looked like a great team with a long rotation in the first game. I don't see why those same players wouldn't get as much time on the court again. But if the game is close look for top 6-7 to get most of the time.

I believe UConn's defense is going to hold NCST to under 60 and UConn should be able to crack the 80 point mark.

UConn by 22+. 

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