Sunday, March 10, 2024

Doggy's UConn/Georgetown III Big East Finals

 





  No. 9 UConn Huskies                                     Georgetown Hoyas
   28-5 (18-0)                                                             22-10 (9-9) 

 Monday, March 11th 2024
Time: 7:00 PM
Mohegan Sun Arena
Uncasville, Ct.  
TV: FS1 

Prior Meetings

GEORGETOWN | UCONN LEADS 53-6 
H: 27-2 | A: 21-4 | N: 6-0

Last Ten Games

03/06/11 #1 UConn 59, #23 Georgetown 43 Hartford, Conn. 
03/27/11 #1 UConn 68, #23 Georgetown 63 Philadelphia, Pa. 
02/11/12 #3 UConn 80, # 14 Georgetown 38 Storrs, Conn. 
01/09/13 #3 UConn 75, Georgetown 48 Washington, D.C. 
01/23/21 #3 UConn 72, Georgetown 41 Storrs, Conn
01/15/23 #4 UConn 65, Georgetown 50 Hartford, Conn. 
02/11/23 #4 UConn 67, Georgetown 59 Washington, D.C. 
03/04/23 #9 UConn 69, Georgetown 39 Uncasville, Conn.
1/7/24 #12 UConn 83, Georgetown 55 Washington, D.C.
2/16/24 #15 UConn 85, Georgetown 44 Storrs, Conn.


Comparative Team Statistics
(leader in bold)

                                                    UConn                                   Georgetown  

                                              80.9        PPG                            58.2
                                              56.7        Defensive PPG            54.1
                                              24.2        Scoring Margin             4.1
                                              50.1        Field Goal %               40.1
                                              35.8        Defensive FG%           37.2 
                                              36.0        Three Point %             30.1
                                              28.3        Defensive 3PT%         28.8
                                              74.6        Free Throw %             70.0
                                              38.8        Rebounds/game           36.3
                                                6.5        Rebounding Margin       4.0 
                                              19.7        Assists per game          12.9
                                              12.9        Turnover per game       15.2
                                                1.5        Assists/TO ratio              .8
                                              10.0        Steals per game             6.8
                                                3.7        Blocks per game            4.1
  
   UCONN 





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Georgetown





Georgetown Starters




 Game Analysis

Here is what I said before the first match up. 

"These kinds of games, where UConn is playing one of the weaker teams in the conference, are always difficult to analyze. All I can do is lay out the stats and details. Not much analysis to explain. Their 12-2 record is very deceiving. They have a knack of winning close games against weak opponents. They love to Brown by 2 and beat Cal State Fullerton by 10, Kennesaw State by 2, DePaul by 4 and Butler by 5."   

Since the last time they met when UConn won 83-55, the Hoyas have gone 4-6. Their knack of winning close games has slipped a little and they lost a few games by double digits. 

UConn beat them in the second matchup in Storrs, winning 85-44, an even bigger blowout than the first match up.  

Since that game, the Hoyas are on a 6 games winning streak, winning their last 3 regular season games and then carrying that over into the Big East tournment, winning 3 games in 3 days, culminating with a 55-46 win over No. 21 Creighton. Shocking so far.  

The Hoyas are not a very good offensive team averaging  58.2 points per game around the same as the last match up. They have 399 assists on the season with 472 turnovers. They are shooting 40.1% from the field and 30.1% on threes.

Their strength is their defense as they hold their opponents to 54.1 PPG and create 14.9 turnovers per game. 

Kelsey Ransom, a 5'10" senior guard, is Georgetown's best player. In 35.5 MPG she averages 13.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 2.2 steals. She is only shooting 21.3% on threes.  She leads the team in assists with 138 but she doesn't have a good assist/turnover ratio with 113 turnovers. She had 12 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in the first match up and 5 points 5 rebounds and 4 assists in the second match up.  

Graceann Bennett is a 6'3" forward. She averages 9.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game and is a solid player.  She is the Hoyas' best big and the only player shooting 51.4% from the field. Bennett had 13 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assists in the first match up and 7 points and 5 rebounds in the second match up. 

Victoria Rivera, 6’0” Sophomore Guard, is averaging 6.6 PPG. She leads the team in taking three pointers and averages 1.4 makes per game while shooting the three at 30.1%. She had 3 points and 2 rebounds in the first match up and 16 points in the second match up.

Arrial Jenkins, a 6'3" junior forward now starts.She averages 3.1 PPG and 2.4 RPG. She had 7 points and 4 rebounds in the first match up and 5 points and 1 rebounds in the second matchup.

Alex Cowan, a 5’7” Graduate Guard, is averaging 6.1 PPG and is second on team in assists and one of the few with a positive assist/turnover ratio. Alex is a very experienced college-level guard. She is second in MPG at 32.3. She had 10 points in the first match up and was scoreless in the second match up. 

The bench - 

Myra Bembry is a 6'1" Grad Student foward who transferred from Seton Hall. She has been getting starter minutes off the bench in the tournament. She was scoreless against UConn in the first match up and 1 point in the second match up.

Jada Claude, a 6' junior forward who averages 4.2 points and 2.2 rebounds per game. She is another transfer, this time from Morehead State where she was OVC all newcomer in her junior season. She had transferred from Duke where she didn't get much time in her career with the Blue Devils. She had 0 points in the first match up and 7 points in the second match up.  

Brianna Scott is a 6'4" Junior forward averaging 8.8 points and 5.9 rebounds and is the Hoyas best shot blocker. She will rotate with Bennett on the front line. Scott had 9 points 7 rebounds in the first game and 3 points and 4 rebounds in the second match up. However, she injured her knee in the game and might not be available for the game against UConn.  

Strategy for Georgetown? Survival. With the talent discrepancy, they obviously have no shot at an upset. They just won't want to be embarrassed. The will be difficult for them to accomplish.  

Final Prediction

From my first previous Game Report - "Georgetown is just way overmatched in this game. They are a poor shooting team going against a terrific defensive team. I can't see them scoring 50 points. UConn has settled in with the small lineup and they will give Georgetown fits with their pressure defense. The Huskies could approach 90 points. If the Hoyas can play inspired defense they could keep UConn under 80. Something like 85-45 for the final score." 

From my second Game Report - "I was close with my prediction with the first game. I can't imagine this game any closer. It's Senior Night, always an emotional game where they start out slow. I'm saying they buck that trend and get out to a strong start. It won't be close. UConn by 40+."

So what would all that mean for this game? They are averaging 56.7 PPG in the tournament and 43.3 on defense. But that's against Xavier, the worst team in the league, St. John's, who averages only 59 PPG and Creighton. UConn is much better offensively than those teams.   

This is their fourth game in four days. That is something I'm sure none of the Georgetown players have done before. Fatigue will definately be a factor late in the game. 

It also depends on Edwards. If she can play to her usual game, the Huskies win by 35+. If not it could be 10 points less at 25+.

Georgetown will have to play out of their minds to have a chance. i just don't think they can.

UConn by 30+.  

GO UCONN!!!

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