Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Doggy's UConn/UCLA National Semi-Final Pregame Report



 2 Seed UConn Huskies                                  1 Seed UCLA Bruins    35-3                                                                     34-2

Friday, April 4, 2025
Time: 9:30
Amelia Arena
Tampa, Florida
TV: ESPN 

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Prior Match ups 

UCLA | UCONN LEADS 7-1 
H: 1-0 | A: 2-0 | N: 4-1 

11/17/98 #2 UConn 113, UCLA 102 Los Angeles, Calif. 
12/23/99 #1 UConn 106, UCLA 64 Storrs, Conn. 
12/21/14 #2 UConn 86, UCLA 50 Uncasville, Conn. 
03/25/17 #1 UConn 86, #15 UCLA 71 Bridgeport, Conn. 
11/21/17 #1 UConn 78, #5 UCLA 60 Los Angeles, Calif. 
03/29/19 #2 UConn 69, #20 UCLA 61 Albany, N.Y
12/11/21 #3 UConn 71, UCLA 61 Newark, N.J.
11/24/23 #2 UCLA 78, #6 UConn 67 Cayman Islands

UCLA Season to Date

What a great year to date for the UCLA Bruins. They have only lost two games this year (so far!) and both of them were to the team UConn just beat USC.  They lost at USC 71-60 on February 13th and then at home on March 1st 80-67. They did get retribution, beating the Trojans 72-67 in the BIG TEN finals. 

Among their best wins was a beat down of South Carolina 77-62

They have had a solid NCAA tournament, easily winning their 1-16 game against Southern 84-46, beating 8 seeded Richmond 84-67, taking it to 5 seed Ole Miss 76-62 in the Sweet Sixteen and then finally a 72-65 win over 3 seed LSU in the Elite Eight to get to the Final Four and their matchup against the Huskies.   
      
Comparative Team Statistics
     (leader in bold)

                                                    UConn                                         UCLA

                                              81.6        PPG                             78.7
                                              52.0        Defensive PPG            57.9
                                              29.6        Scoring Margin            20.8
                                              50.9        Field Goal %                48.2
                                              34.6        Defensive FG%           35.2 
                                              38.3        Three Point %              33.7
                                              28.9        Defensive 3PT%          29.0
                                              76.4        Free Throw %              72.8
                                              37.0        Rebounds/Game          42.9
                                                5.9        Rebounding Margin      12.3 
                                              21.0        Assists per game          20.4
                                              10.7        Turnover per game       15.1
                                                2.0        Assists/TO ratio              1.4
                                              11.4        Steals per game             7.2
                                                4.1        Blocks per game             5.4

                                    
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Game Analysis

This is a real interesting matchup. Both  teams are terrific offensively and defensively. 

Offensive Rankings

UConn is 1st in FG percentage, 3rd in assists per game,  1st in assists/TO ratio, 9th in scoring offense, 5th in three point percentage.  

UCLA is 6th in FG percentage, 4th in assists per game, 11th in assists/to ratio, 18th in scoring offense.

Defensive Rankings

UConn is 4th in defensive FG%, 39th in Rebounding Margin, 1st in scoring defense, 17th in steals per game.  

UCLA is 6th in defensive FG%, 6th in rebounds per game, 2nd in rebounding margin, 11th in Blocks per game (Betts), 44th in scoring defense.

Clearly UCLA has the advantage in rebounding. It's a huge part of their game. UConn is just the most efficient offensive team in the country. Both are very good defensive teams.  

On to the players. I posted 8 players for UCLA but I am no sure they will go that deep with that many players out there for double digit minutes. They didn't in the LSU game.

UCLA STARTERS

The star of the team and the most indispensable player is 6'7" Junior Center Lauren Betts. She leads the team in scoring at 20 PPG, rebounding at 9.6 RPG, Blocks at 3 per game. She is 5th in the country in BPG. She leads the team in free throws attempted but only hits them at 61%. That can be an issue in a game like this where every point will matter. She is shooting a terrific 64.9% from the field, 4th in the country. Betts is just a load in the middle. You can't move her and she will move her defender to get position in the paint. She has excellent hands and solid moves to the basket. UConn's bigs will have to work hard to slow her down. The Huskies did a good job last year when they played holding her to 13 points and 7 rebounds and she didn't block a shot.

KiKi Rice, their 5'11" Junior point guard, is the only other double digit scorers on the team. She is averaging 12.4 PPG and 5 assist. She has 167  assists and 70 turnovers, a very good assist/turnover ratio. Rice leads the team in steals with 48. She only takes around 2.5 threes per game making them at a 36.1% clip. Rice was the difference maker in last seasons UCLA win over UConn. She almost had a triple double with 24 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists. It was probably the best game of her career. 

Gabriela Jaquez, a 6' Junior Guard, is a jack of all trades for UCLA. She is averaging 9.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG and a solid 76/32 Assist/TO ratio. She is the only other player besides Betts to shoot better than 50%, with 53.5%. She is a good three point shooter as well at 36%. She came off the bench in last years game and scored 7 points and grabbed 6 rebounds against UConn.

Londynn Jones is a 5'4" Junior Guard. This mighty mite just loves the three point shot. Last season she broke the UCLA record for three pointers made. And this year she has taken over 200 three pointers. Shooting an OK 35%, the Huskies will have to keep an eye on her. She is averaging 8.7 PPG. Her issue is that if she doesn't take three pointers she is only shooting 33.6% on two pointers. She had a tough game against UConn last year going 1-5 from the field and all three pointers. 

Angela Dugalić is the final starter. The 6'4" Grad Student forward. She is averaging 7.4 PPG and 5.7 RPG. She also takes care of the ball with a solid assist to turnover ratio of 80/54. She is second on the team in blocks with 28 on the season. She had a tough game in last years matchup going 1-7 from the field  and going 1-3 on threes for her only points. She did grab 7 rebounds so her effort wasn't a total loss.    

UCLA BENCH

Timea Gardiner is a 6'3" Grad Student Forward is a transfer from Oregon State. She is averaging 7.7 PPG and 3.5 RPG. She can really shoot the ball, hitting her three pointers at 39.9%. She was brought in to hit three pointers and that is about all she can contribute. But she could hit a couple of big ones. It's not a good idea to leave her open. Timea was not on the team the last time UConn played UCLA.

Janiah Barker, a 6'4" Junior forward is a transfer from Texas A&M. The perennial underachiever is still not playing to what was her expected level when she was first coming into WCBB. This year she is averaging only 17.4 MPG. Scoring 7.4 PPG and grabbing 6 RPG there has always been a "I want to see more" attitude from the fans. She is shooting a solid 46.4% from the field but a horrific 15.6% on threes going 5-32. Barker is new to the team and did not play in last years contest against UConn.    

They do have a freshman guard Elina Aamisaio, a 5'10" freshman guard. I'm not sure how many minutes she will see in this game. She is averaging 5.1 PPG and 2.3 RPG. Elina is second on the team in assists with 128. That works out to around 3.5 per game. Not a great shooter going 16-62 on threes, I don't expect her to see many minutes in this game.  

Final Prediction 

Well, here we go. Final Four!! And the big question is can Paige score 30+ in one more game? She did last season in the loss to UCLA. She had 31 points. But UConn was just awful in this loss shooting 33.3% from the field and that's with shooting 39% on threes. I seriously doubt we see anything like that in this game.

Lots of questions on how UConn will play Betts. They can't let her dominate the paint. Can Jana and Ice keep her in check? Probably not, certainly not 1-1. But Geno will have defensive schemes to double her from different directions. The bigger issue is slowing down Rice. I'm sure the returning UConn players remember that game well where Rice was just dominating.

I'm not overly impressed with the other players besides Betts and Rice. I'm sure they will have their moments but UConn just too talented for this Bruin squad.

Betts will have to play 35+ minutes for UCLA to have a chance. And I'm not sure doing that doesn't create diminishing returns due to fatigue.   

Experience wise?  From ESPN - "Except for assistant coach Shannon LeBeauf, who was an assistant on Duke's 2006 national runner-up, no Bruins player or coach has been to a Final Four. Perhaps it won't matter, but history says otherwise. Not since the 2006 Maryland Terrapins has a team won a national championship without having a coach or a player go through the experience first."

As much of a matchup problem Betts can be, UConn's offense will be a big challenge for UCLA. Multiple three point shooters, a matchup nightmare in Sarah Strong and in my mind, the no doubt best players in WCBB Paige Bueckers. I am hopeful that Azzi Fudd uses that fourth quarter outburst to shoot the lights out against the Bruins.   

Bottome line?

I like UConn by 7+.

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Doggy's UConn/USC Elite Eight Pregame Report







 2 Seed UConn Huskies                                  1 Seed USC Trojans    34-3                                                                     31-3

Monday, March 31, 2025
Time: 9:00
Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
Spokane, Washington
TV: ESPN 

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Prior Match ups 

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | UCONN 

UCONN LEADS 3-1 
H: 1-1 | A: 1-0 | N: 1-0 

12/07/02 #3 UConn 68, USC 44 Hartford, Conn. 
12/07/03 #1 UConn 72, USC 69 Los Angeles, Calif.
04/01/24 #10 UConn 80, #3 USC 73 Portland, Ore.
12/21/24 #7 USC 72, #4 UConn 70 Hartford, Conn. 

USC Overview

JuJu has an ACL tear and had surgery. It makes it difficult, even pointless to talk about their season to date other than their last game a 67-61 win over Kansas State.

From TrojanSports - 

It's been clear all season that for as deep as this USC women's basketball team is, it was built around the incredible one-two combo of JuJu Watkins and Kiki Iriafen.

One of those two -- most often Watkins, the consensus first-team All-American and United States Basketball Writers Association national player of the year -- led the team in scoring in all but one game before Saturday. When she went down with a torn ACL on Monday night, it was Iriafen, the third-team All-American, who rose up with her best game of the season to lead the way.

But coach Lindsay Gottlieb has also been clear from the start with her loaded freshman class that this was their time too and they were very much a factor in the sky-high potential of this team.

Never was that truer than Saturday night.

With Watkins watching from home and Iriafen struggling through a rare off-shooting night, the freshmen led the way to send No. 1-seeded USC to a 67-61 win over No. 5-seed Kansas State and back into the Elite Eight for the second straight season.

The Trojans (31-3) now get an Elite Eight rematch with UConn (34-3) in Spokane, Washington, on Monday night.

Thanks in large part to freshmen Kennedy Smith (19 points and 3 steals), Avery Howell (18 points, 8 rebounds and 4 steals) and Kayleigh Heckel (8 points), while veteran center Rayah Marshall chipped in 10 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks.

"What can I say about our freshman class? They're winners above everything else," Gottlieb said. "I got a text here that said 'Kennedy Effing Smith' and I was like, 'Can I say that in the media?' ... They're incredibly tough and they are winners, and that's what I told them before the game and they earned every bit of it."

Coming off a 36-point performance last game, Iriafen hit just 3 of 13 shots to finish with 7 points and 8 rebounds.

USC trailed 30-28 at halftime and 39-34 midway through the third quarter before Howell hit a 3-pointer to kickoff a 12-0 run in which she had 5 points and Iriafen had 4 of her points in that spurt while Smith capped it with a steal and fastbreak score.

The Trojans couldn't put the Wildcats (28-8) away until the very end, though.

K-State's Ayoka Lee tied the game at 51-51 a few minutes into the fourth quarter before Marshall answered with the next four points, including an offensive rebound and second-chance score.

The teams kept trading scores, though, and Serena Sundell's layup with 3:04 remaining cut the USC lead to 60-59.

Smith got to the line for two made free throws, then stole the ball back and made one of two at the foul line to make it 63-59 with 1:36 remaining.

A Sundell jumper for K-State and misses on both sides left it 63-61 when the Wildcats fouled Howell with 32 seconds on the clock despite their coach screaming from the sidelines not to foul. Howell hit both free throws, and Lee then fouled Iriafen trying to position for a rebound that never came on the second made foul shot.

That sent Iriafen to the line, but she missed both attempts to keep it a 65-61 game. K-State would miss its final four shots, though as the Trojans could finally exhale.

"I'm really proud of our team's fight and togetherness and finding a way to win. It's not supposed to be easy, and it wasn't easy," Gottlieb said.

USC won despite shooting 38.5-percent from the field, but the Trojans turned the ball over just 9 times while forcing 16 K-State turnovers and holding the Wildcats to just 5 of 16 on 3-pointers.

The players talked to Watkins on the phone before the game and all entered the arena wearing shirts with her face on it. Watkins' absence maintained its own presence all game, of course, but it never overwhelmed or overshadowed the Trojans on the court.

"Having a sense of togetherness, that's something we emphasized even coming in in the summer. Our chemistry on and off the court has been great. Just navigating from there, I think everyone on this team has value and brings something to the table so I think everybody stepped up today," Smith said.

"I never had any doubt in this team. I think everybody still had the common goal of winning a national championship, so just coming in and playing with heart grit and fight from the beginning to the end."

Howell reiterated that point.

"We're so deep on this team and everyone plays such a valuable role that if someone's not hitting we have someone else to rely on, so I just think it falls back to the preparation, the work we've been doing all season," she said.

"We have [Watkins] in our thoughts and we're supporting her from here and we're taking her competitive nature onto the court with us every single time we step there, and we know she's back home supporting us, having a watch party, doing everything she can to give us that good JuJu, you could say."

The road only gets tougher from here, though, as USC now gets a much-anticipated rematch with UConn.

The Huskies ended USC's season last year, 80-73, in the Elite Eight, while the Trojans won a regular-season meeting back in December, 72-70. Gottlieb was vocally miffed that the NCAA selection committee put the two teams in the same corner of the bracket despite that regular-season meeting, and now it's here -- with the dynamics far different than she or anyone could have imagined with Watkins watching from home.

      
Comparative Team Statistics
     (leader in bold)

                                                    UConn                                         USC

                                              81.7        PPG                             81.1
                                              51.7        Defensive PPG            58.8
                                              30.0        Scoring Margin            22.3
                                              51.1        Field Goal %                44.3
                                              34.7        Defensive FG%           35.6 
                                              38.2        Three Point %              32.3
                                              29.0        Defensive 3PT%          28.7
                                              76.1        Free Throw %              76.9
                                              37.2        Rebounds/Game          42.2
                                                6.3        Rebounding Margin        7.9 
                                              21.1        Assists per game          17.4
                                              10.7        Turnover per game       14.9
                                                2.0        Assists/TO ratio              1.2
                                              11.5        Steals per game            11.1
                                                4.2        Blocks per game             6.9

The USC stats are irrelevant with the absence of JuJu Watkins. She impacts points, rebounds, assists, blocks and every stat you can think of.   
                                                         

USC





         


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Game Analysis

Last season USC began and ended with the amazing freshman JuJu Watkins. The precocious youngster led the team to a losing effort in the Elite Eight game against the Huskies. This year the Trojans had added a Robin to Watkins' Batman. And they looked like they were going to make a championship run. KiKi Iriafan transfered in from Stanford and made an immediate impact on USC. But now with the season ending injury to Watkins, USC is down to just Robin. Can they still continue that championship run without JuJu? Let's take a look at the lineup. 

USC Starters

6'2" sophomore JuJu Watkins was the leading scorer on the team at 23.9 PPG. She was a real volume shooter at around 18 per game. Her shooting percentages were not good although still better than last season. She was shooting 42.3% from the field and 32.5% on threes. Watkins was third on the team in rebounding at 6.8 RPG and led the team in assists with 113 on the season. She was second on USC in blocks with 1.9 per game and led in steals with 2.3 per game. She was and is the complete package and future POY winner before her career is over. A shame she got injured but it is what it is and USC will try to find a way to compete. As you can see, there is a ton to make up for.    

KiKi Iriafan, a 6'3" forward is a graduate student who transfered from Stanford. There she was the 2024 Katrina McClain Award winner as the best power forward in the nation.  She is   now leading the team in scoring at 18.2 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 8.4 RPG. I was surprised to see she only has 22 blocks on the season. She had really taken a load off Watkins with her scoring but now she will be expected to do more. She had 16 point, 11 rebounds and 6 assists in the first UConn game.   

Kennedy Smith, a 6'1" freshman guard will be relied on to pick up some of the missing scoring. The No. 6 recruit in the 2024 class, She missed seven games this season with a foot injury but came back in time for the first UConn matchup. They year she is now the second leading scorer at 9.6 PPG. Smith has struggled shooting this season only 42.4% from the field and 31.4% on threes. A big guard she rebounds at 4.3 per game. She had 9 points, 3 rebounds and no assists in the first UConn game. 

Rayah Marshall, the 6'4" senior center is not the double double machine she was last season so far, but is close. She is averaging 7.5 PPG and 8.2 RPG. She is a terrific shot blocker averaging 2.2 BPG. You can bet she will be getting plenty of minutes in this game. Always a decent passer for a center, she is even better this season with 79 assists and only 50 turnovers. She had 6 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks against the Hukies in the first UConn game.   

Talia Vn Oelhoffen is another transfer, this time from Oregon State. The 5'11" grad student guard is averaging 5.8 PPG and 2.5 RPG. She is right behind Watkins in assists with almost 4 per game and steals at 1.3 per game. She's had a tough time offensively. She is shooting 36.2% from the field and 27.7% on threes. In the first UConn game she had 5 points 2 assists and a steal.    

Filling out the starting lineup is 6' guard Avery Howell. She averages 7.4 PPG and 3.8 RPG. She shoots 42% from  the field and is the best three point shooter at 39.9%. Howell had 6 points, 1 rebound and 1 assist in the first UConn game. 

USC Bench

The bench doesn't contribute much to the stats for USC. And even less with Howell now starting. They mostly give the starters a few minutes of rest. And they play less and less as the competition toughens. I would bet that Gottlieb will ride her Starters as much as possible.  

USC will only go two deep off the bench and maybe three depending on score and foul issues.

The third freshman in the regular rotation is 5'9" Freshman Guard Kaleigh Heckel. Hoopgurlz No. 13 in the 2024 freshman classs she is averaging 7.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG and 1.9 APG. She had 5 points, 2 assists and 1 steal in her 13 minutes against UConn in the first game.   

Clarice Akunwafo is a 6'6" senior center averaging 1.2 PPG and 2.5 RPG. She just doesn't contribute much. In their last game she played 17 minutes and was scoreless with 1 rebound and had a quick three fouls. In the first UConn game she didn't play. She will more than likely have to see some action with the limited bench.

Malia Samuels returns as a 5'6" sophomore guard. The speedy guard, in 17.1 MPG is averaging 3.8 points and 1.7 rebounds per game. She handles the ball well with 44 assists and only 271 turnovers on the season. She only played 9 minutes in their first game without JuJu. In the first UConn game coincendently she played 9 minutes. She didn't score and had 1 steal and 1 block.  


Final Prediction 

I was really looking forward to seeing JuJu and Bueckers again. Sadly it was not to be. Teams lose players but not someone that dominates the ball so much. It's so hard to make that up with the remaining players in only two games. They squeaked by Kansas State 67-61 in a game they could have easily lost. Two freshmen came through. I don't see them duplicating that against the UConn defense.    

Expect UConn to play with their usual pace, trying to wear out the shorthanded USC team. Pressure defense and running on every defensive rebound.   UConn's depth will make a difference. 

Bueckers is on a mission. I don't see any way she doesn't have a big game again. Fudd and Strong will shoot better in this game after going 2-12 on threes between them.

I just can't see USC making a game of this. Other than Iriafen, UConn has the advantage at every position. Maybe the center position is even big I like how Ice and El Alfy are playing defense and rebounding. That's all UConn needs from them.    

Any way I look at it, the Huskies are too talented for USC.

I like UConn by 15+.