Sunday, March 30, 2025

Doggy's UConn/USC Elite Eight Pregame Report







 2 Seed UConn Huskies                                  1 Seed USC Trojans    34-3                                                                     31-3

Monday, March 31, 2025
Time: 9:00
Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
Spokane, Washington
TV: ESPN 

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Prior Match ups 

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA | UCONN 

UCONN LEADS 3-1 
H: 1-1 | A: 1-0 | N: 1-0 

12/07/02 #3 UConn 68, USC 44 Hartford, Conn. 
12/07/03 #1 UConn 72, USC 69 Los Angeles, Calif.
04/01/24 #10 UConn 80, #3 USC 73 Portland, Ore.
12/21/24 #7 USC 72, #4 UConn 70 Hartford, Conn. 

USC Overview

JuJu has an ACL tear and had surgery. It makes it difficult, even pointless to talk about their season to date other than their last game a 67-61 win over Kansas State.

From TrojanSports - 

It's been clear all season that for as deep as this USC women's basketball team is, it was built around the incredible one-two combo of JuJu Watkins and Kiki Iriafen.

One of those two -- most often Watkins, the consensus first-team All-American and United States Basketball Writers Association national player of the year -- led the team in scoring in all but one game before Saturday. When she went down with a torn ACL on Monday night, it was Iriafen, the third-team All-American, who rose up with her best game of the season to lead the way.

But coach Lindsay Gottlieb has also been clear from the start with her loaded freshman class that this was their time too and they were very much a factor in the sky-high potential of this team.

Never was that truer than Saturday night.

With Watkins watching from home and Iriafen struggling through a rare off-shooting night, the freshmen led the way to send No. 1-seeded USC to a 67-61 win over No. 5-seed Kansas State and back into the Elite Eight for the second straight season.

The Trojans (31-3) now get an Elite Eight rematch with UConn (34-3) in Spokane, Washington, on Monday night.

Thanks in large part to freshmen Kennedy Smith (19 points and 3 steals), Avery Howell (18 points, 8 rebounds and 4 steals) and Kayleigh Heckel (8 points), while veteran center Rayah Marshall chipped in 10 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks.

"What can I say about our freshman class? They're winners above everything else," Gottlieb said. "I got a text here that said 'Kennedy Effing Smith' and I was like, 'Can I say that in the media?' ... They're incredibly tough and they are winners, and that's what I told them before the game and they earned every bit of it."

Coming off a 36-point performance last game, Iriafen hit just 3 of 13 shots to finish with 7 points and 8 rebounds.

USC trailed 30-28 at halftime and 39-34 midway through the third quarter before Howell hit a 3-pointer to kickoff a 12-0 run in which she had 5 points and Iriafen had 4 of her points in that spurt while Smith capped it with a steal and fastbreak score.

The Trojans couldn't put the Wildcats (28-8) away until the very end, though.

K-State's Ayoka Lee tied the game at 51-51 a few minutes into the fourth quarter before Marshall answered with the next four points, including an offensive rebound and second-chance score.

The teams kept trading scores, though, and Serena Sundell's layup with 3:04 remaining cut the USC lead to 60-59.

Smith got to the line for two made free throws, then stole the ball back and made one of two at the foul line to make it 63-59 with 1:36 remaining.

A Sundell jumper for K-State and misses on both sides left it 63-61 when the Wildcats fouled Howell with 32 seconds on the clock despite their coach screaming from the sidelines not to foul. Howell hit both free throws, and Lee then fouled Iriafen trying to position for a rebound that never came on the second made foul shot.

That sent Iriafen to the line, but she missed both attempts to keep it a 65-61 game. K-State would miss its final four shots, though as the Trojans could finally exhale.

"I'm really proud of our team's fight and togetherness and finding a way to win. It's not supposed to be easy, and it wasn't easy," Gottlieb said.

USC won despite shooting 38.5-percent from the field, but the Trojans turned the ball over just 9 times while forcing 16 K-State turnovers and holding the Wildcats to just 5 of 16 on 3-pointers.

The players talked to Watkins on the phone before the game and all entered the arena wearing shirts with her face on it. Watkins' absence maintained its own presence all game, of course, but it never overwhelmed or overshadowed the Trojans on the court.

"Having a sense of togetherness, that's something we emphasized even coming in in the summer. Our chemistry on and off the court has been great. Just navigating from there, I think everyone on this team has value and brings something to the table so I think everybody stepped up today," Smith said.

"I never had any doubt in this team. I think everybody still had the common goal of winning a national championship, so just coming in and playing with heart grit and fight from the beginning to the end."

Howell reiterated that point.

"We're so deep on this team and everyone plays such a valuable role that if someone's not hitting we have someone else to rely on, so I just think it falls back to the preparation, the work we've been doing all season," she said.

"We have [Watkins] in our thoughts and we're supporting her from here and we're taking her competitive nature onto the court with us every single time we step there, and we know she's back home supporting us, having a watch party, doing everything she can to give us that good JuJu, you could say."

The road only gets tougher from here, though, as USC now gets a much-anticipated rematch with UConn.

The Huskies ended USC's season last year, 80-73, in the Elite Eight, while the Trojans won a regular-season meeting back in December, 72-70. Gottlieb was vocally miffed that the NCAA selection committee put the two teams in the same corner of the bracket despite that regular-season meeting, and now it's here -- with the dynamics far different than she or anyone could have imagined with Watkins watching from home.

      
Comparative Team Statistics
     (leader in bold)

                                                    UConn                                         USC

                                              81.7        PPG                             81.1
                                              51.7        Defensive PPG            58.8
                                              30.0        Scoring Margin            22.3
                                              51.1        Field Goal %                44.3
                                              34.7        Defensive FG%           35.6 
                                              38.2        Three Point %              32.3
                                              29.0        Defensive 3PT%          28.7
                                              76.1        Free Throw %              76.9
                                              37.2        Rebounds/Game          42.2
                                                6.3        Rebounding Margin        7.9 
                                              21.1        Assists per game          17.4
                                              10.7        Turnover per game       14.9
                                                2.0        Assists/TO ratio              1.2
                                              11.5        Steals per game            11.1
                                                4.2        Blocks per game             6.9

The USC stats are irrelevant with the absence of JuJu Watkins. She impacts points, rebounds, assists, blocks and every stat you can think of.   
                                                         

USC





         


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Game Analysis

Last season USC began and ended with the amazing freshman JuJu Watkins. The precocious youngster led the team to a losing effort in the Elite Eight game against the Huskies. This year the Trojans had added a Robin to Watkins' Batman. And they looked like they were going to make a championship run. KiKi Iriafan transfered in from Stanford and made an immediate impact on USC. But now with the season ending injury to Watkins, USC is down to just Robin. Can they still continue that championship run without JuJu? Let's take a look at the lineup. 

USC Starters

6'2" sophomore JuJu Watkins was the leading scorer on the team at 23.9 PPG. She was a real volume shooter at around 18 per game. Her shooting percentages were not good although still better than last season. She was shooting 42.3% from the field and 32.5% on threes. Watkins was third on the team in rebounding at 6.8 RPG and led the team in assists with 113 on the season. She was second on USC in blocks with 1.9 per game and led in steals with 2.3 per game. She was and is the complete package and future POY winner before her career is over. A shame she got injured but it is what it is and USC will try to find a way to compete. As you can see, there is a ton to make up for.    

KiKi Iriafan, a 6'3" forward is a graduate student who transfered from Stanford. There she was the 2024 Katrina McClain Award winner as the best power forward in the nation.  She is   now leading the team in scoring at 18.2 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 8.4 RPG. I was surprised to see she only has 22 blocks on the season. She had really taken a load off Watkins with her scoring but now she will be expected to do more. She had 16 point, 11 rebounds and 6 assists in the first UConn game.   

Kennedy Smith, a 6'1" freshman guard will be relied on to pick up some of the missing scoring. The No. 6 recruit in the 2024 class, She missed seven games this season with a foot injury but came back in time for the first UConn matchup. They year she is now the second leading scorer at 9.6 PPG. Smith has struggled shooting this season only 42.4% from the field and 31.4% on threes. A big guard she rebounds at 4.3 per game. She had 9 points, 3 rebounds and no assists in the first UConn game. 

Rayah Marshall, the 6'4" senior center is not the double double machine she was last season so far, but is close. She is averaging 7.5 PPG and 8.2 RPG. She is a terrific shot blocker averaging 2.2 BPG. You can bet she will be getting plenty of minutes in this game. Always a decent passer for a center, she is even better this season with 79 assists and only 50 turnovers. She had 6 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks against the Hukies in the first UConn game.   

Talia Vn Oelhoffen is another transfer, this time from Oregon State. The 5'11" grad student guard is averaging 5.8 PPG and 2.5 RPG. She is right behind Watkins in assists with almost 4 per game and steals at 1.3 per game. She's had a tough time offensively. She is shooting 36.2% from the field and 27.7% on threes. In the first UConn game she had 5 points 2 assists and a steal.    

Filling out the starting lineup is 6' guard Avery Howell. She averages 7.4 PPG and 3.8 RPG. She shoots 42% from  the field and is the best three point shooter at 39.9%. Howell had 6 points, 1 rebound and 1 assist in the first UConn game. 

USC Bench

The bench doesn't contribute much to the stats for USC. And even less with Howell now starting. They mostly give the starters a few minutes of rest. And they play less and less as the competition toughens. I would bet that Gottlieb will ride her Starters as much as possible.  

USC will only go two deep off the bench and maybe three depending on score and foul issues.

The third freshman in the regular rotation is 5'9" Freshman Guard Kaleigh Heckel. Hoopgurlz No. 13 in the 2024 freshman classs she is averaging 7.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG and 1.9 APG. She had 5 points, 2 assists and 1 steal in her 13 minutes against UConn in the first game.   

Clarice Akunwafo is a 6'6" senior center averaging 1.2 PPG and 2.5 RPG. She just doesn't contribute much. In their last game she played 17 minutes and was scoreless with 1 rebound and had a quick three fouls. In the first UConn game she didn't play. She will more than likely have to see some action with the limited bench.

Malia Samuels returns as a 5'6" sophomore guard. The speedy guard, in 17.1 MPG is averaging 3.8 points and 1.7 rebounds per game. She handles the ball well with 44 assists and only 271 turnovers on the season. She only played 9 minutes in their first game without JuJu. In the first UConn game coincendently she played 9 minutes. She didn't score and had 1 steal and 1 block.  


Final Prediction 

I was really looking forward to seeing JuJu and Bueckers again. Sadly it was not to be. Teams lose players but not someone that dominates the ball so much. It's so hard to make that up with the remaining players in only two games. They squeaked by Kansas State 67-61 in a game they could have easily lost. Two freshmen came through. I don't see them duplicating that against the UConn defense.    

Expect UConn to play with their usual pace, trying to wear out the shorthanded USC team. Pressure defense and running on every defensive rebound.   UConn's depth will make a difference. 

Bueckers is on a mission. I don't see any way she doesn't have a big game again. Fudd and Strong will shoot better in this game after going 2-12 on threes between them.

I just can't see USC making a game of this. Other than Iriafen, UConn has the advantage at every position. Maybe the center position is even big I like how Ice and El Alfy are playing defense and rebounding. That's all UConn needs from them.    

Any way I look at it, the Huskies are too talented for USC.

I like UConn by 15+.

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Doggy's UConn/Oklahoma Sweet Sixteen Pregame Report

 






                                                                
  2 Seed UConn Huskies                       3 Seed Oklahoma Sooners
33-3 (18-0)                                                          27-7 (11-5)

Date: Saturday, March 29th 2025
Time: 5:30
Where: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
Spokane, Wash.
TV: ESPN


0
OKLAHOMA-UCONN 

HUSKIES LEAD 13-0
 
H: 4-0 | A: 4-0 | N: 5-0 

12/29/99 #1 UConn 84, Oklahoma 68 Norman, Okla. 
03/25/00 #1 UConn 102, Oklahoma 80 Richmond, Va. 
12/22/01 #1 UConn 86, Oklahoma 72 Hartford, Conn. 
03/31/02 #1 UConn 82, Oklahoma 70 San Antonio, Texas 
12/01/02 #3 UConn 73, Oklahoma 60 Honolulu, Hawaii 
11/20/05 #9 UConn 82, #25 Oklahoma 62 Storrs, Conn. 
11/30/08 #1 UConn 106, #4 Oklahoma 78 Storrs, Conn. 
02/15/10 #1 UConn 76, #11 Oklahoma 60 Norman, Okla. 
02/14/11 #2 UConn, 86, #12 Oklahoma 45 Hartford, Conn. 
02/13/12 #2 UConn 73, Oklahoma 55 Norman, Okla. 
12/19/17 #1 UConn 88, Oklahoma 64 Uncasville, Conn. 
12/12/18 #1 UConn 72, Oklahoma 63 Norman, Okla. 
12/22/19 #2 UConn 81, Oklahoma 57 Uncasville, Conn.

Oklahoma  Season to Date

Oklahoma has had a very good season in their first year in the SEC. They are in the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2013 where they lost to Tennessee.

The Sooners have only lost to ranked team except for Mississippi State who they lost to 81-77. They were defeated by No. 13 Duke 109-99 in overtime, No. 5 Texas 80-73, No. 1 South Carolina 101-60, No 7 LSU 107-100, No.12 Kentucky 95-86, and again to No. 5 South Carolina 93-75

They also beat a few ranked teams. They defeated  No. 22 Louisville 78-72, No. 20 Michigan72-62, No. 15 Tennessee 87-86, No. 20 Alabama 91-84, and No. 12 Kentucky 69-65.

All these rankings were what the teams were ranked at the time they played. 

UConn and Oklahoma had five mutual opponents. Oklahoma scores listed first.

-41, -18 South Carolina  +29  
+1 Tennessee -4
+6 Louisville +33
+10 Ole Miss +13
+23 DePaul +26

So far in the NCAA tournament,  Oklahoma defeated 14 seed Florida Gulf Coast 81-58 and 6 seed Iowa 96-62. Taking care of business.

--------------------------------------------

Comparative Team Statistics
(leader in bold)

                                                    UConn                                 Oklahoma  

                                              81.7        PPG                            85.4
                                              51.5        Defensive PPG            68.5
                                              30.2        Scoring Margin           16.9
                                              51.3        Field Goal %               45.8
                                              34.6        Defensive FG%           37.0 
                                              38.1        Three Point %             33.2
                                              29.0        Defensive 3PT%         29.0
                                              76.6        Free Throw %             71.7
                                              37.3        Rebounds/game           47.9
                                                6.4        Rebounding Margin      13.0 
                                              21.2        Assists per game          21.9
                                              10.7        Turnover per game       18.7
                                                2.0        Assists/TO ratio             1.2
                                              11.3        Steals per game              8.9
                                                4.2        Blocks per game            3.9
.
 
       UCONN 


OKLAHOMA








Oklahoma Starters






Oklahoma Bench






Game Analysis

Every team has an identity. This version of the Sooners is all about rebounding and second chances. They have to be because they are a poor shooting team. 

Overall, Oklahoma shoots only 45.8% from the field and 32.2% on threes. They get to the foul line ofter, but shoot at only 71.7%. They make up for that by grabbing 47.9 rebounds per game and snag 15 offensive rebounds per game. 

Leading the way for the Sooners is 6'4" Junior Center Raegan Beer. A former UConn portal target (came in second), Beers is a load in the paint. She is scoring at a 17.5 PPG clip. She also leads the team in RPG at 9.3. Beers leads the team in blocks as well with 39. One of two players on the team over 50% from the field at 64.5%. She also gets to the FT line 5 times per game. And she does this on only 20 MPG. She will be a challenge.

Beers is really important for the Sooners but she is not more important that 6'1" Senior Guard Payton Verhults. Second in the team in scoring at 14.9 PPG, she is their point guard and leader. She is averaging 4.1 APG and has a solid 2-1 assists to turnover ratio. She takes the most three pointers by far and hits them at a decent 34.8%. However she only shoots 42.3% from the field. Verhults also leads the team with 49 steals. Payton has a knack in hitting clutch three pointers so UConn will have to watch her closely. She also loves to hit the boards from the guard spot averaging 5.8 RPG. 

Third on the team in scoring is 5'11" Sophomore Forward Sahara Williams. Averaging 10.6 PPG, she is not a very good shooter, She is 41.3% from the field and on 4 attempts per game, she is shooting only 30.2% on threes. A solid rebounder at 4.8 RPG, she is also a strong defender. 

The only other double digit scorer, RS Senior Forward 6' Skylar Vann is averaging 10 PPG. Vann is a solid ball handler with 93 assists and only 54 turnovers. She is another weak shooter hitting 41.7% from the field and 27% on threes. Another good rebounder she is averaging 4.9 RPG. 

Reyna Scott, a 6'2" RS Senior Forward is the final starter. She has started 15 games this season. Only playing 13.8 MPG, she will be in and out of the lineup in this game. She is averaging 4.7 PPG and is another poor shooter hitting only 43.6% of her shots and 26.7% on threes.

First off the bench, Zia Vann (Skylar's little sister) is averaging 7.1 PPG. The 5'7" freshman guard is the first off the bench. She is second on the team in steals with 45. 

Liz Scott (no relation to Reyna) is a 6'2" RS Senior Forward. She is the ONLY other player that shoots over 43.6% from the field. She is at 53.2%. She grabs rebounds at 4.8 RPG and is scoring at 6.7 PPG.

Lexi Keys, a 5'7" RS Senior Guard and Nevaeh Tot, a 5'9" RS Senior Guard will probably not get many minutes. Keys shoots 37.7% from the field and 33.8% on threes Tot is shooting 32.7% from the field and 29.7% on threes. They positives are they don't turn over the ball much. They are averaging 5 assists and 3 turnovers per game between them.   

Oklahoma is a pretty big team. They start 6'4", 6'2", 6'1", 6' and 5'11".  And they all crash the boards. In the first game in the tournament they had 72 rebounds, 23 of them offensive. Against Iowa they had 64 rebounds, 24 of them offensive. Wow. A further look at the stats tells you they HAD to rebound like that with how poorly they shot in those games. Against FGCU, they shot 38,7% from the field, 30.8% on threes and 68.8% from the foul line. Against Iowa they shot 40.7% from the field, 32.4% on threes and 70.4% from the foul line. 

Oklahoma also gets to the  foul line often, 43 times in those two games.    

UConn will have to do continue their good shooting and find a way to keep Oklahoma off the boards. Sara Strong is the key to that. And can El Alfy do a decent job with Beers before getting into foul trouble.

I'm not sure that the Sooners have the players to guard the Huskies.  They are not particularly quick. They play a man to man defense but Beers floats to the circle to protect the paint when she can. If she is guarding Strong at any point, advantage UConn.                         

Prediction

It's pretty simple. If UConn can hit their shots and  keeps Oklahoma mostly off the boards then UConn runs away with it. If Oklahoma can hold UConn below their shooting averages and can get enough second chance baskets they have a chance.

It's have a hard time imagining the latter happening. Too many offense choices for UConn and Oklahoma is not a very good defensive team. It should be interesting to see how this game turns out but I like the Huskies chances.     

UConn by 15+