Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Doggy's UConn vs South Carolina Final Four Pregame Report


                                                            
              
            1 Seed                                                                1 Seed               
      UConn Huskies                                  South Carolina Gamecocks
            38-0                                                                    35-3

 Friday April 3rd , 2026
5:00 PM  
Mortgage Matchup Center
Phoenix, Ariz.
ESPN


SOUTH CAROLINA | UCONN 
UCONN LEADS 11-5 
H: 5-1 | A: 4-2 | N: 2-2 

12/17/07 #2 UConn 97, USC 39 Storrs, Conn. 
12/28/08 #1 UConn 77, USC 48 Columbia, S.C. 
02/09/15 #2 UConn 87, #1 USC 62 Storrs, Conn. 
02/08/16 #1 UConn 66, #2 USC 54 Columbia, S.C. 
02/13/17 #1 UConn 66, #6 USC 55 Storrs, Conn. 
02/01/18 #1 UConn 83, #7 USC 58 Columbia, S.C. 
03/26/18 #1 UConn 94, #7 USC 65 Albany, N.Y. 
02/11/19 #4 UConn 97, #11 USC 79 Hartford, Conn. 
02/10/20 #1 USC 70, #5 UConn 52 Columbia, S.C. 
02/08/21 #2 UConn 63, #1 USC 59 (OT) Storrs, Conn.
11/22/21 #2 UConn 57, #1 USC 73 Paridise Island, Bahamas
04/03/22 #1 USC 64, #5 UConn 49 Minneapolis, Minn.
2/4/23 #1 USC 81, #5 UConn 77 Hartford, Conn. 
02/11/24 #1 USC 83, #11 UConn 65 Columbia, S.C.
02/16/24 #4 USC 58, #7 UConn 87 Columbia, S.C.
04/06/25 #3 UConn 82, #2 USC 59 Tampa, Fla.

***************************

    Comparative Team Statistics

                                            UConn                                 South Carolina

                                              87.9         PPG                            87.2
                                              50.1        Defensive PPG             57.4
                                              29.7        Scoring Margin            29.8
                                              52.0        Field Goal %                50.9
                                              33.4        Defensive FG%            34.6 
                                              38.7        Three Point %              36.5
                                              27.0        Defensive 3PT%           28.5
                                              74.2        Free Throw %              72.4
                                              37.7        Rebounds/game            42.3
                                                6.1        Rebounding Margin      8.4 
                                              23.4        Assists per game           18.3
                                              12.7        Turnover per game       12.8
                                                1.9        Assists/TO ratio             1.4
                                              15.7        Steals per game             9.7
                                                5.0        Blocks per game            5.9  
                                                 


*******************************************************************

SOUTH CAROLINA 


South Carolina Starters

 
Game Analysis

South Carolina lost a lot of players from last seasons team that was beat up by UConn in both the regular season matchup 87-58 and in the championship game 82-59. Surprising results for sure. 

Gone are 6'2" forward Chloe Kitts, who was lost for the sesaon to injury, Te-Hina Paopao a 5'9" guard, 6'3" forward Sania Feagin and Bree Hall, a 6' guard. That's four of the five starters from last seasons championship game. Top player off the bench MiLaysia Fulwiley, a 5'10" guard left in the transfer portal. 

5'8" RS senior point guard Raven Johnson is the only returning starter. She has really upped her game this year, making smarter players with a terrific 192/57 assists/TO ratio and also so  much better than any time in her career from deep, shooting three pointers at 39.8%. UConn won't be able to cheat off of her on defense. She is also shooting a career high 49.8% from the field and for the first time double digit scoring at 10.0 PPG. She is the true leader on this team.

Sophomore Joyce Edwards, a 6'2" Forward, is the leading scorer on the team at 19.7 PPG up 7 points this year. and second in rebounding at 6.4 RPG. She is the best player on the team and is even better than last season. Edward's shooting is up from 53.5% to 59.5%. Edwards also leads the team in steals and is second in blocks shots. A much better all around player than years past. You can see why she was considered competition to Strong for HS players of the year back when. 

6' junior guard Tessa Johnson moved into the starting lineup and is clearly the three point sniper on the team. You can't leave her open for a second. She is fourth on the team in scoring at 12.9 PPG. Johnson shoots the ball at 46.2% from the field but her strong point is the 44.5% on threes. And it's not low volume. She takes around 6 per game. Tessa has a solid floor game too with a 90/46 assist/TO ratio.  

6'6" senior center Madina Okot transferred in from Mississippi State and has achored the paint for the Gamecocks. She is a double double machine, averaging 13.5 PPG (3rd on team) and 10.9 RPG. She gets most of her points from close in shooting 58.4% from the field and a surprising 46.2% on threes. However, she has only taken 26 three point attemps all season. UConn will have to work hard to keep Okot off the offensive glass as she averages 4 per game. She also leads the team in blocked shots with 1.5 per game. A true big center. 

5'9" senior guard Ta'Naya Latson, the nation's leading scorer last year brought her terrific offensive game to South Carolina from Florida State. She was a volume shooter last season which allowed her to score so many points. This year she has toned down her game to fit into a team with other great players and has done a very good job. She is only scoring 14.3 PPG (second on the team) but her efficiency is up. She is shooting 49% from the field. She has struggled from deep this year, shooting long distance at only 29.3% on threes. Another good ball handler she has an assist to turnover ratio of 113/51.  

The South Carolina bench is pretty young with 2 freshman, 1 sophomore and a senior that doesn't see much time in competative games.

Former UConn recruiting target 6'1" freshman Agot Makeer has really started to come on this season. after only three double digit scoring games (12, 12, 10) in her first 26 games, she has scored 16, 15, 10 and 18 in her four NCAA tournament games. You can see why UConn was so high on her. After shooting only 20% on threes this season, she is 3-9 in the NCAA tournament. Long and lean, she is great at running the court. Overall she is averaing 6.5 PPG and 3.4 RPG.  

Maddy McDaniel, a 5'9" sophomore guard, will be the second player off the bench. She is a decent player with overall solid skills. She is only shooting 38.2% from the field but has a good 37.9 three point percentage. She has an amazing assist/turnover ratio of 79/16. That is why she is part of the regular rotation. Dawn can trust her with the ball.   

6'7" freshman Alicia Tournebize from France was added to the roster second semester and has slowly garnered more minutes as the season went on. She is tall but more of a forward than a true big. I can't see her getting much minutes in this game unless to give a starter a blow.   

Maryam Dauda, a 6'4" senior forward will be probably riding the pine in this game. With Edwards and Okot playing 35+ minutes only foul trouble will get her on the court. 

Any way you look at it, Dawn is most likely only playing 7 players against UConn with significant minutes.

Player by player comparisons

PG - Raven Johnson vs KK Arnold. A great matchup between two of the best point guards in the country. Johnson is the better offensive player, but it's not by much. And Arnold is the better defender but it's not by much. Hard to pick a winner between them.

Advantage - Even

SG - Tessa Johnson vs Azzi Fudd. Two terrific players. Johnson is not the complete player that Fudd is. Azzi is better getting off her midrange shot and is the better defender. They both are deadly from three point land with Johnson at 44.5% and Fudd at 45.5%. Johnson is really good. Fudd is better. 

Advantage - UConn

SF - Ta'Niya Latson vs Ashlynn Shade. Neither one is a small forward as both teams go with 3 guards in the starting lineup. Latson is a prolific scorer for her career but has fit in well with the team concept for Dawn. Her defense is just fair. Shades has been in a terrible shooting slump recently but she is still all over the court defensively and adds so much emotionally to the team. 

Advantage - South Carolina 

PF - Joyce Edwards vs Sarah Strong. Clearly the two best players on each team. Edwards is so much better this season, improving her scoring and her efficiency. Up 7 PPG, you can almost write down 20 points for her. She is great around the basket with slippery post moves and a really good offensive rebounder. What more can I say about Strong that hasn't been said? National player of the year doesn't take second fiddle to anyone. 

Advantage - UConn

C - Madina Okot vs Serah Williams. This will be a huge (not only in size)  test for UConn's Williams. Okot has dominated the paint in almost every games she has played in. She didn't have a great game against TCU but that doesn't mean much. Williams has been on and off all season, but she appears to be playing her best basketball recently. This matchup is closer than some might think.    

Advantage - South Carolina (slightly)

Bench - Makeer, McDaniel, Tournebize, Dauda vs Blanca, Heckel, Zeibell, El Alfy. This is a true advantage for the Huskies. Blanca is a starter that comes off the bench and in some respects so is Heckel. With the length of Okot, El Alfy might get more minutes. Overall, the UConn bench is so much better than the South Carolina bench. 

Advantage - UConn 

Coach - Dawn vs Geno. Yes, I'm on a first name basis with these two HOF coaches. It's hard to pick on over the other, but Geno's resume gives him the nod.

Advantage - UConn.

Final Prediction

Remember the two games last year that UConn won by 29 and 23 points? Forget about those. This is a new season. South Carolina is starting FOUR new players compared to last season. UConn is starting three new players compared to last year. 

A big difference is the two rturning starters for UConn are Strong and Fudd, two All-Americans. 

For South Carolina to win they need to dominate the boards and hit s decent percentage of their three point shots. And they have to defend the three point line as well and hope UConn is not hot from deep. 

For UConn to win, they have to limit South Carolina's offensive rebounding and not leave the good shootings lime Tessa Johnson open from deep. UConn needs to turnover South Carolina as well, not an easy task as they do take care of the ball.   

So, how will it play out?  Certainly no blowout in either direction. I believe that UConn is still the more talented team and with Geno game planing for them, UConn will do enough to win this game. Defense will rule the day and UConn's defense is just the best. As usual the refs are the wildcard. Hopefully a well officiated game.

UConn by 7+.    
Posted by at No comments:

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Doggy's UConn vs North Carolina Sweet Sixteen Pregame Report



                                                     
 1 Seed UConn Huskies                   4 Seed North Carolina Tarheels   36-0                                                                          28-7

Friday, March 27th, 2026
Time: 5:00
Place: Fort Worth, Texas 
TV: ESPN 

Prior Meetings

NORTH CAROLINA vs| UCONN 
UCONN LEADS 10-5 H: 4-1 | A: 2-2 | N: 4-2 

01/12/80 UNC 84, UConn 51 Chapel Hill, N.C. 
03/26/94 #4 UNC 81, #3 UConn 69 Piscataway, N.J. 
12/02/95 #2 UConn 77, #24 UNC 62 Richmond, Va.
11/15/01 #1 UConn 94, UNC 74 Storrs, Conn. 
11/21/04 #9 UNC 71, #4 UConn 65 Raleigh, N.C. 
12/05/05 #7 UNC 77, #8 UConn 54 Hartford, Conn.
 01/15/07 #2 UNC 82, #6 UConn 76 Chapel Hill, N.C. 
01/21/08 #1 UConn 82, #3 UNC 71 Storrs, Conn. 
01/19/09 #1 UConn 88, #2 UNC 58 Chapel Hill, N.C. 
01/09/10 #1 UConn 88, #7 UNC 47 Storrs, Conn. 
01/17/11 #3 UConn 83, #10 UNC 57 Chapel Hill, N.C. 
01/16/12 #3 UConn 86, #24 UNC 35 Storrs, Conn. 
12/06/23 #17 UConn 76, #24 UNC 64 Uncasville, Conn. 
11/15/24 #2 UConn 69, #14 UNC 58 Greensboro, N.C.

*******************************************************************
North Carolina Season

Similar to Syracuse, almost all of UNC's losses were to Top 25 teams.

They lost to at the time No. 3 UCLA 78-60, at the time No. 2 Texas 79-64, at the time No. 22 Louisville 76-66 in overtime, at the the No. 11 Duke 72-68, and at the time No. 12 Louisville 65-57.

They also lost to Stanford 77-71 in overtime and rising team Notre Dame 73-50.

That is all seven losses. Other than Stanford, they beat every team they should have beaten. But on the other hand, they didn't win any games where they were not favored. 

They are having a solid start to their NCAA tournament, beating 13th seed Western Illinois 82-51 and 5th seeded Maryland (bye bye Brenda) 74-66. 

*******************************************************************

Comparative Team Statistics
(leader in bold)

                                             UConn                                       North Carolina 

                                              89.1        PPG                           75.6
                                              50.3        Defensive PPG            58.9
                                              38.8        Scoring Margin           16.6
                                              52.5        Field Goal %               45.6
                                              33.5        Defensive FG%           36.5 
                                              39.2        Three Point %             35.6
                                              27.1        Defensive 3PT%          27.9
                                              74.0        Free Throw %             69.0
                                              37.8        Rebounds/game           39.7
                                                6.4        Rebounding Margin       7.5 
                                              23.7        Assists per game          15.7
                                              12.7        Turnover per game       14.1
                                                1.9        Assists/TO ratio             1.1
                                              15.7        Steals per game              8.7
                                                4.9        Blocks per game            3.6
    
*******************************************************************
North Carolina Tar Heels 



North Carolina Starters

2 Nyla Harris
6'2" Senior Forward
Prior School - Louisville

17 Elina Aarisalo
5'10" Sophomore Guard
Prior School - UCLA 

24 Indya Nivar 
5'10" Senior Guard
Prior School -  Stanford

****************************************************************************

 Game Analysis

UConn and North Carolina player early last season with the Huskies winning 69-58 in their third game of the season. However, there is not much to glean from that matchup. Only Strong and Shade started in that game with Bueckers, Chen and Brady not returning or available in this game. Arnold cmae off the bench in that game. Fudd was not healthy for that game. For UNC, they only return one starter from that game and two players that came off the bench are now starting. Let's get into their player analysis.

6'2" senior forward Nyla Harris is a transfer from Louisville She is leading UNC in scoring at 11.5 PPG and rebounds at 6.9 RPG. Harris is shooting 58.2% from the field but only 2-14 on threes. She gets to the free throw line the most on the team and shoots them at a solid 78.7%. 

Lanie Grant is a 5'9" sophomore guard. She is second on the team in scoring at 11.3 PPG. She is a terrific three point shooter hitting them at 42.8%. Grant plays the most minutes on average at 29 MPG.  

Elina Aarisalo is a 5'10" sophomore guard who, like UConn's Heckel, transferred to UNC from UCLA after her freshman season. She is third in scoring at 10.4 PPG. Another solid three point shooter at 40.9% but only takes 2.5 per game. She is second on the team in assists at 2.9 APG and has a solid assist/to ratio of 99/73.

5'10" senior guard Indya Nivar transferred in Stanford two years ago and is the only returning starter. She is the fourth double digit scorer on the team averaging 10.3 PPG. She leads the team in assists at 3.8 APG. Nivar is not a good long range shooter only hitting them at a 30.8% clip. She had the best assist/turnover ratio at 129/87.    

6'4" RS sophomore Ciarra Toomey is the best big on the team. She is averaging 8.9 PPG and is second in rebounding at 6.2 RPG. We all know how hard UConn recruiter her and I'm sure many UConn fans thought she was  lock to hear to Storrs. Her favorite player was Stewie and she appeared to lover UConn. Can't get them all! She leads he team in blocks at 1.5 BPG. She is a little slower on the court than I remember. She is shooting 54.7% from the field and only 29% on threes on 2 attempts per game.

They are missing Reniya Kelly, a 5'7" junior guard who was playing 25.3 MPG. She didn't score much or shoot a good percentage but her minutes kept others fresh. She has been injured for the last 13 games.

Only two bench players will see significant minutes.   

Nyla Brooks is a 6'1" freshman guard. She has taken the second most three point shots  and hits them at a solid 37.8% on 5 per game. She is averaging 8.7 PPG and will be counted on to his some clutch three pointers. She actually shoots a hight percentage from deep than overall from the field at 36%.

6'1" RS sophomore guard Laila Hull is the other player off the bench. She is another solid three point shooter at 36.4%. She is only averaging 3.6 PPG.  

Overall North Carolina is a middle of the road type team. They shoot a good overall percentage at 45.8%, a good 3 point pecentage at 35.6%, they average a decent 75.6 PPG. Their only advantage over UConn is the same as many other teams, they rebound better. At least that is what their stats say. But middle of the road statistics just won't cut it against UConn.

UNC is mostly a man-to-man team. Looking at the starters, they will have a tough time (like most teams) matching up with Strong. On offense, after watching the Maryland game, UNC guards love to penetrate all the way to the basket. UConn's double teams and switching defense wil make that difficult.     
 

Final Prediction


Sometimes you can look at comparative scores to get an idea how a team will do against the Huskies. Do we have any games like that? We do.

UNC played Louisville twice. They won both games, winning by 10 points in overtime and 8 points. UConn beat Louisville by 13 points.

UNC played Notre Dame, losing by 23 points. UConn beat the Irish by 38 points.

UNC played Syracuse losing in Overtime by 6 points.

Based on that, UConn should win handily. Of course there is more to it. UConn is playing at a really high level. Can they keep that up in this game. It's a different arena, different baskets (same height but new for them to shoot at), and teams can just play above their heads aginst them. 

I don't think UNC can win this game but they certainly can do better than Syracuse did. That wouldn't be hard. I expect UNC to put up a good fight. However, the Huskies are on a mission. 

UConn by 20+.    
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)