Monday, February 3, 2025

Doggy's UConn/Tennessee Pregame Report


 







VS






 UConn Huskies                                            Tenn Lady Vols
              21-2 (12-0)                                                      16-5 (4-5)


Thursday
 February 6th, 2025

Thompson Boiling Arena
Knoxville, Tn
 6:30 P.M. EST
ESPN

Prior Meetings

 UCONN LEADS 17-9

Home: 6-4
 Away: 6-3
 Neutral: 5-2

01/16/95 #2 UConn 77, #1 UT 66 Storrs, Conn.
04/02/95 #1 UConn 70, #3 UT 64 Minneapolis, Minn.
01/06/96 #2 UConn 59, #4 UT 53 Knoxville, Tenn.
03/29/96 #4 UT 88, #2 UConn 83 (OT) Charlotte, N.C.
01/05/97 #1 UConn 72, #8 UT 57 Hartford, Conn.
03/24/97 #10 UT 91, #1 UConn 81 Iowa City, Iowa
01/03/98 #1 UT 84, #3 UConn 69 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/10/99 #2 UT 92, #1 UConn 81 Storrs, Conn.
01/08/00 #1 UConn 74, #2 UT 67 Knoxville, Tenn.
02/02/00 #4 UT 72, #1 UConn 71 Storrs, Conn.
04/02/00 #1 UConn 71, #2 UT 52 Philadelphia, Pa.
12/30/00 #1 UConn 81, #2 UT 76 Hartford, Conn.
02/01/01 #3 UT 92, #2 UConn 88 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/05/02 #1 UConn 86, #2 UT 72 Knoxville, Tenn.
03/29/02 #1 UConn 79, #6 UT 56 San Antonio, Texas
01/04/03 #3 UConn 63, #5 UT 62 (OT) Hartford, Conn.
04/08/03 #1 UConn 73, #5 UT 68 Atlanta, Ga.
02/05/04 #4 UConn 81, #1 UT 67 Knoxville, Tenn.
04/06/04 #6 UConn 70, #2 UT 61 New Orleans, La.
01/08/05 #10 UT 68, #15 UConn 67 Hartford, Conn.
01/07/06 #1 UT 89, #7 UConn 80 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/06/07 #4 UT 70, #5 UConn 64 Hartford, Conn.
1/23/20 #3 UConn 60 #23 Tennessee 45 Storrs, Conn.
1/29/21 #3 UConn 67 #25 Tennessee 61 Knoxville, Tenn.
02/06/22 #10 UConn 75, #7 Tennessee 56 Hartford, Conn.
01/26/23 #5 UConn 84, UT 67 Knoxville, Conn.

     Tennessee Overview

A tale of two seasons so far for the Lady Vols. They ran through the OOC schedule going 12-0 and averaging close to 100 points per game, at time leading the country in scoring. They went over 100 points in 6 games climaxing with a 139 point outburst against North Carolina Centtral putting up SIXTY three pointers. Tennessee fans can justify embarrassing an opponent all they want. It was a disgusting display of poor sportsmanship. 

They opened the SEC with a win over one of the weaker teams in the SEC beating Texas A&M 91-78 but since then, the road got a lot bumpier.

The Lady Vols lost their next two SEC games to ranked teams in closer outcomes. They lost to at the time ranked 9th Oklahoma 87-86 and at the time ranked 6th LSU 89-87 before beating two more lower rated SEC teams. They beat Arkansas 93-63 and Mississippi State 86-73.

The most aggravating loss came next in a 71-70 defeat by Vanderbilt. The Tennessee fans wenl bonkers with this loss especially being a buzzer beater defeat. And they continued their losing ways, being defeated by No. 5 Texas 80-76 and No. 2 South Carolina 70-63

In their final game before hosting UConn, Tennessee defeated Missouri on the road 76-71.

All the SEC losses were to Top 10 teams so Tennessee fans were holding on to that fact. To me, losing close games to ranked teams make them......a loser. End of story. 

And in their game this past Sunday, they were able to beat the bottom of the SEC standings Missouri in a game that the Lady Vols were favored by double digits.      
 
        Comparative Team Statistics

Leader in Bold

                                                     UConn                                     Tennessee
               
                                              81.1        PPG                             91.1
                                              52.0        Defensive PPG             69.5
                                              29.2        Scoring Margin            21.6
                                              51.5        Field Goal %                44.0
                                              35.6        Defensive FG%            44.7 
                                              37.9        Three Point %              33.3
                                              31.3        Defensive 3PT%           27.4
                                              73.4        Free Throw %              68.0
                                              36.5        Rebounds/game            42.1
                                                5.9        Rebounding Margin      6.0 
                                              21.7        Assists per game           16.4
                                              10.5        Turnover per game       14.2
                                                2.1        Assists/TO ratio             1.2
                                              11.2        Steals per game            12.8
                                                3.7        Blocks per game             3.2  
   
*******************************************************************

Tennessee Lady Vols





   Tennessee Starters





 Game Analysis

Well, here we go again. Playing one more game in this rivalry. It just doesn't have the same oomph it has had in the past. For one thing, the Huskies have once again had the Lady Vols number. UConn has beaten Tennessee the last four times they have met expanding their series lead to 17-9. The margins have been 15, 6, 19 and 17. The close game will be remembered by the valient effort by Paige Bueckers, who badly sprained her ankle but came back in the game to hit a killer three pointer. And some people don't think she is clutch...lol.

This is a brand new version of Tennesee. A new coach in Kim Caldwell, who came after one season at Marshall to this high profile job to be a savior of the program. A tough position to be in. 

She brings with her a system that you just don't see at the highest level of Division I basketball. No matter how the team is performing she will replace the starting five with five new players after only a couple of minutes on the court. And then continue to replace players after a few more minutes over and over again. That is why she has no one over 25 MPG and ten players with double digit minutes. 

Coach Caldwell makes quick  substitutions because the Lady Vols press. Full court from pretty much from opening tip to final buzzer. 

I'm pretty sure that Tennessee is the only team where ten different players have started at least one game. Crazy, huh. But they have five players that started the majority of their games. 

South Carolina transfer, Talaysia Cooper is the star of the team. The 6' red shirt sophomore guard is averaging a team leading 17.9 PPG, second in assists with 3.5 APG and by far a team leading 5 steals per game. Conversely, she averages the same amount of turnovers per game. She is shooting a poor 30.4% on three pointers. Although she can get hot for a short period of time. Oh, she is also tied for the team lead in rebounds at 5.9 RPG.Did I mention she has the most blocks with 18? A stat filler good and bad.

Ruby Whitehorn is a 6' junior guard who transferred from Clemson. Second on the team in scoring at 13 PPG, her biggest contribution is on the press. She is quick and has long arms to disrupt teams from bringing up the ball across half court.    

5'11" fifth year guard  Jewel Spear came from Wake Forest two seasons ago. Staring 12 games this season, she came off the bench in their last game. She is averaging 12.1 PPG and can get hot from the outside at any time in a game, especially late in close games. She is shooting a solid 37.9% on threes, second best on the team. 

Zee Spearman, Miami transfer,  is one of two bigs on the team at 6'4". Listed as a forward,  Spearman is tied for 1st on the team in rebounds at 5.9 RPG. She has the best FG% on the team  and the only player over 50% at 51.2%. She is averaging 11 PPG. 

Samara Spencer, a 5'7" senior guard transfer from Arkansas is the point guard on this team. She is the fifth double digit scorer at 10.1 PPG. Her biggest contributions are two fold. She leads the team in assists by far with 5.1 APG and she is the best three point shooter at 40.5%. Her height is a problem in the half court defense but she is effective in the Lady Vol full court pressure with 27 steals, second on the team.

These are the players with the most minutes on the team with four of them right around 24 MPG.     
   
The next five players get in the game early but just as quickly do they sub in, Caldwell subs them out. They average between 14-17 MPG. 

Tess Darby, a 6'1" 5th year Senior, is the most experienced home grown talent on the team. She has always been the three point specialist on the team, but this year she is averaging only 7.4 PPG and shooting 34.2% on threes. She is not quick a foot so her impact in the full court press is minimal.   

Another homegrown player is 6'2" Sarah Puckett, a four year player for the Lady Vols. Similar to Darby, she is just not built for this crazy pressing game that Tennessee plays. She is averaging 6.2 PPG and really struggles from deep shooting 27% and only 36.5% from the field.

The final homegrown talent in the rotation is 5'9" freshman Kaniya Boyd. Coach Caldwell put her in the starting lineup in their last game against Missouri. She is maybe the quickest Lady Vol and loves to drive to the basket. She is averaging 3.9 PPG. Boyd is only shooting 4-19 on threes. 

6'2" sophomore forward Alyssa Lathem is a transfer from Syracuse. She averages 3.9 PPG and 3.7 RPG.  She is a big contributor to the full court press and is third on the team in steals. 

The only true big on the team at 6'5", senior Hollingshead transfered in from Georgia two seasons ago. She is averaging 3.5 PPG and 3 RPG. She likes to take a three pointers every game and when she misses she doesn't take another. 2-11 from deep.   

Well, there ya go. A look at all 10 players. And you will see all of them coming in and going out. It will make your head spin.

That works against the weaker teams in their schedule and explains the 100+ games. They were averaging 98.8 PPG in their OOC Schedule. However, in the next 9 games in their SEC schedule, they averaged 83 PPG lowering their season average 91 PPG. Big difference. 

The Lady Vols also take a ton of three pointers average 33 per game. However they only make them at a 33.1% clip. Their entire offense is taking more shots than the other team. And they do that on average by 17 per game. 

Most of those come from the 24 turnovers they force teams into. That number is eighth in the country. 

Polar opposite is UConn, who averages 10.1 turnovers per game, third in the nation. 

UConn also leads the country in assist/turnover ration at 2.1. Tennessee is a more pedestrian 1.2.

UConn shoots almost 38% on threes, top ten in the country. Tennessee is top 30 allowing only 27.4% of three point shots.   

One more difference. UConn leads the country in Points Allowed. Tennessee is 270th. 

UConn has 11 homegrown players in the rotation and 1 transfer. Tennessee has 5 transfers in the starting lineup and 3 homegrown players in the ten players rotation. Tennessee had no choice as they struggled to get commitment from top players out of high school.   
     
All these items lead me to my final prediction.

Final Prediction

These two teams are so different. And the outcome will depend on which team can play their game better than the other team.

Tennessee will press after every make and sometimes after misses as well. If they can turn UConn over 15-20 times they can keep it close. If they turn the Huskies over 25 times (their average) they can win. But it will take more than that. They will have to hit their three pointers at a high rate as well. 

If Tennessee can turn UConn over they should get some easy baskets. And UConn's half court offense is better than anything the Lady Vols has seen this season.

The biggest advantage Tennessee has is the fans at Thompson Boiling Arena. Emotion can really help this Lady Vol team. 

All that being said, I think UConn has enough smart ball handlers and they probably have watched enough of the Tennessee press to make it ineffective most of the game. UConn can not afford to be cold from deep but I don't expect them too with all their great shooters.

Bottom line, UConn win by 12+ and scores over 90 points.