STANFORD GAME PREVIEW

           

#1 UCONN

 

#6 STANFORD



 

 

 

 

AT 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day:  Monday

Date: November. 17, 2014

Location: Palo Alto, California

Time: 9:00 PM ET

Television ESPN2

Overview

Records UConn 1-0 beating UC Davis 102-43, Stanford 1-0 beat BC at home, 96-63.

UConn and Stanford are meeting for the 17th time with the series in favor of UConn, 10-6. UConn is 1-3 in Maples, 3-1 at home and 6-2 at neutral sites.

I have to believe this is one of the earliest matchups for these two teams. And based on everything I have heard, this will be a big advantage for UConn. Stanford is transitioning from their long time triangle offense to a more guard oriented scheme. Tara had Mike D'antoni in this year to help her implement an offense that emphasizes ball screens, pick-and-roll plays and fast breaks. This is a major change for folks used to watching Stanford utilize the big post player passing from the top to an Ogwimike all these years. I can't imagine they are as fluid with this offense so early in the season as they will be as the season goes on.

That being said, this new style might work better than the triangle offense that scored only 35 points the last time these two teams met in Maples two years ago. Heck, it couldn't do any worse, could it?

I'm really going to miss the Chiney/Dolson battles this year. Two warriors battling hard in the paint. Ogwimike's quickness and length vs Dolson's size. While they didn't guard each other exclusively, they had some classic battles in the paint.

Last year, UConn beat Stanford twice. Once at home in the KML injury game and then in Tennessee in the semi-finals of the NCAA tournament.

The first meeting was won by UConn 76-57. Here is the box score.

Hartley led UConn with 20 points, eight rebounds and six assists. Stokes had her best game of the season with 10 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks. Orrange scored a career-high 22 points to lead the Cardinal. Ogwumike added 16 points and 13 rebounds. UConn went a full 8 deep in this game.

The NCAA was won by UConn in similar fashion, 75-56. Here is the box score.

Sending them to the Championship game against Notre Dame, Stewart scored 18 points, KML had a nice game with 15 points and Hartley had 13 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists. Similarly to the first game, the offense was off for both teams before UConn pulled away early in the second half.

Between the change in offense and the graduation of Chiney and Reuf, and the similar losses of Hartley and Dolson for UConn, I wouldn't put much stock in either of those games.

UConn Starting Lineup

12 Sanyia Chong 5'8" Sophomore Guard

Chong had a nice start to the season with 12 points and 2 assists in 22 minutes. She was a sparkling 4-5 on three pointers.

2013-14 MPG 17.1,  FG% .420, 3PT% .323, FT% .825, PPG  4.7, RPG 1.8,    APG 1.5, Steals  24,  Blocks 8

4 Moriah Jefferson 5'7" Junior Guard

Jefferson player her usual strong floor game in the UC Davis game with 7 assists and 13 points on 5-8 shooting in 25 minutes. She was 3-3 on three pointers.

2013-14 MPG 29.7,  FG% .575, 3PT% .418, FT% .768, PPG  10.0, RPG 3.4,    APG 4.9, Steals  106,  Blocks 9

 
41 Kiah Stokes 6'3"  Senior Center

Stokes missed a couple of chippies, but she had 7 points 7 rebounds and 3 blocks in 20 minutes against UC Davis. More to come from this talented center.

2013-14 MPG 18.5,  FG% .600, 3PT% .000, FT% .698, PPG  4.5, RPG 7.1,    APG 0.9, Steals 13,  Blocks 89

 
23 Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis 5'11" Senior Forward

Against UC Davis, KML was amazing scoring 30 points, going 10-13 on 3's tying Moore's record. She added 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals to that fantastic shooting line. All in only 24 minutes.

2013-14 MPG 29.2,  FG% .465, 3PT% .413, FT% .909, PPG  13.4, RPG 5.4,    APG 2.6, Steals  20,  Blocks 5

30 Breanna Stewart 6'4" Junior Forward

As usual, Stewart filled up the stat line against UC Davis with 15 points, 7 assists (career high), 6 rebounds and 3 steals in 24 minutes.
  
2013-14 MPG 30.5,  FG% .497, 3PT% .343, FT% .774, PPG  19.4, RPG 8.1,    APG 3.1, Steals  63,  Blocks 110

UConn Bench

3 Morgan Tuck 6'2" Sophomore Forward


Tuck had 10 points 7 assists and 4 rebounds in only 21 minutes against UC Davis. 

2013-14 MPG 14.5,  FG% .490, 3PT% .412, FT% .556, PPG  7.5, RPG 2.4,    APG 1.0, Steals  4,  Blocks 1

11 Kia Nurse 6' Freshman Guard

Nurse scored 8 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and countless hustle plays against UC Davis and in her first game for UConn.


2013-14 N/A

 
 22 Courtney Ekmark 6' Freshman Guard

Ekmark was the only other freshman to play in the first half. She didn't score but had 3 tough rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals.

2013-14 N/A
 

15 Gabby Williams 5'11" Freshman Guard

Williams showed some great post moves in her 13 minutes, all in the second half. She scored 6 points on 3-6 shooting with 3 rebounds against UC Davis.

2013-14 N/A

Stanford Starting Lineup



1 Lili Thompson 5'7" Sophomore Guard

Thompson led Stanford with 26 points in 23 minutes against BC. 3-4 on three pointers. She did have a team high 4 turnovers.

2013-14 MPG 25.1,  FG% .412, 3PT% .422, FT% .738, PPG  8.4, RPG 2.4,    APG 2.7, Steals  28,  Blocks 7

33 Amber Orrange 5'7" Senior Guard

Orrange showed her versatility with 11 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 steals against BC. All in a team leading 29 minutes.

2013-14 MPG 31.9,  FG% .475, 3PT% .322, FT% .759, PPG  10.3, RPG 3.5,    APG 4.5, Steals  51,  Blocks 2

4  Taylor Greenfield 6'3" Senior Forward

 

Greenfield played a solid 17 minutes, going 3-4 from the field and 1-1 on three's. She struggled taking care of the ball with 3 turnovers.

2013-14 MPG 16.6,  FG% .391, 3PT% .359, FT% .720, PPG  5.2, RPG 2.2,    APG 1.5, Steals  3,  Blocks 1

24 Erica McCall 6'3" Sophomore Forward

McCall had a very good start to her season with 16 points on 7-11 shooting. She also added 2 blocks and 2 steals, but she only had 3 rebounds.

2013-14 MPG 10.5,  FG% .4392, 3PT% .000, FT% .545, PPG  3.3, RPG 3.2,    APG 0.3, Steals  5,  Blocks 21

5  Kaylee Johnson 6'3" Freshman Forward

Johnson had a slow start to her first game playing 22 minutes and only scoring 2 points while she snagged 4 rebounds blocked 1 shot.


2013-14 N/A

Stanford Bench

 

 

00 Alex Green 5'7" RS Junior Guard

 

Green played 10 minutes against BC scoring 4 points with 2 rebounds.

2013-14 MPG 6.2,  FG% .303, 3PT% .286, FT% .714, PPG  1.0, RPG 0.5,    APG 0.6, Steals  5,  Blocks 0

 

 

 

 

44 Karli Samuelson 6' Sophomore Guard 

Samuelson had a good game with 8 points and 3 assists in 19 minutes against BC.

2013-14 MPG 15.5,  FG% .404, 3PT% .348, FT% .907, PPG  5.1, RPG 1.2,    APG 1.3, Steals  13,  Blocks 4

 

 

 

 

 

32 Kailee Johnson 6'3" Sophomore Forward

 

 

Outplayed the freshman Johnson with 6 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks against BC.

2013-14 MPG 9.8,  FG% .388, 3PT% .400, FT% .458, PPG  2.4, RPG 1.7,    APG 0.6, Steals  10,  Blocks 9

 

 

Game Analysis

Stanford Offense - Go to google and type in Tara Stanford Triangle. You will get around 300,000 sites with information about the offense that Stanford ran the last 12 years. So, what, after all that time, has caused Tara to switch to a guard oriented pick and roll, fast breaking offense? It's basically her roster. She hopes to take advantage of Orrange, Thompson and Stanford's athleticism. What's interesting is that Tara  and her coaching staff spent the offseason learning the new offense so they could teach it. Stanford grad and former NBA player Mark Madsen spent days diagramming the offense and watching the team run it. D'Antoni tutored it.

"We made the decision as a staff to go in a different direction," VanDerveer said. "We had to put something new together. We wanted to help Amber and the rest of the team approach it intelligently. It's more about spacing on the floor. Into September it was stressful. I was comfortable with the triangle but we had to leave it."

"Yes, I'm teaching something I've never taught before," she said. "It has me totally out of my comfort zone."

Wow. So, not only did they lose Chiney and Ruef but the returning players are learning a totally new offense. And they are playing the best defensive team in the country. Good luck with that.

What Stanford lost was the high/low play of Chiney and Ruef and their returning "posts" are not equipped to be effective playing that way. What Stanford does have is two exceptional guards in Orrange and Thompson. We saw some of that last year in the two matchups between these two teams. UConn is going to have to fight through the screens to prevent open three's and get back quickly on defense as I believe Stanford will run at every opportunity. They need to hit a good percentage of three pointers to have any chance of keeping it close.

The players like the new offense. No surprise. Players love to run and run and run.

Finally, here is Tara to sum it up for us - "We want to run. That's the first way we want to attack. We want to spread it around, get on the glass, not foul and box out."

It seems they were successful against BC. They showed that they would run at every chance and take the 3 pointer when it's open. 96 points ties their high from last year. They only scored over 89 points that one time. They shot a terrific 65% from the field and 54% on three's making 7-13. The new offense got off to a good start.   

Stanford Defense - Stanford loses over 50% of their rebounding and 50% of their blocked shots with the graduation of Ogumike and Ruef. No one averaged over 3.2 rebounds per game that is returning. A big question is who will make that up? McCall, a former UConn target, is likely to make up for some of it along with the freshman Johnson. Their other 6'3" players are not strong rebounders. Against UConn, this will be a big problem.

Stanford played a man to man against UConn last year with some zone thrown in on occasion. This year, I think we might see more zone. Last year they had Ruef cover Dolson and Chiney guard Stewart. They don't have the players this year to do that. They have no one to guard Stewart. They will be doubling her at every chance and her improved passing out of those doubles will produce many open shots for her teammates.

UConn seems to always come out slow against Stanford and that could happen again. But I'm not sure that Stanford will have much time to set up on defense if they are trying to speed up the game, a big change for them.

As expected, Stanford was not very strong on the boards by their post players but they were able to outrebound BC 38-27. Stanford showed quick hands with their 11 steals.

UConn Offense - So many weapons, so many choices. I wrote the following before the UC Davis game. "Unlike SNY, I will actually mention KML. Coming into this season, she is completely recovered from her health issues from last year. Her three point shot is the prettiest in WCBB and maybe the most deadly. If they double on Stewart, KML will make Stanford pay. And I do mean PAY. KML also brings a toughness on the boards similar to Barbara Turner, another undersized forward. Enough about KML."  After her performance against UC Davis, we could see a record breaking season by KML both three pointers made and shooting percentage. I expect UConn to do what they did in the preseason and Cal Davis game. Run run and run. If you have to set up the offense, get it down low to Stewart and Stokes. If doubled, kick it out to an open shooter. Lather, Rinse, Repeat. With Stanford's weaker post game, I expect UConn to dominate the boards and have a ton of offensive rebounds and putbacks. Expect them to get Stanford into early foul trouble. Stanford might need to use all 15 players.    

UConn Defense - What can you say about their defense that hasn't been said before. They play a tough man to man. They pick up the ball in the back court, pressuring the entire time and if the opponent is lucky enough to initiate their offense, UConn plays their pressure defense, many times doubling the ball and switching quickly. I'm sure teams feel like UConn has 6 or 7 defenders out there at one time. So how will they defend Stanford? More of the same. With the strength of the Stanford team being their guard play, you can bet that Geno will force the other players to score. And when Jefferson and Nurse are on the court together, the pressure half court defense is as good as when Faris was there. Stokes and Stewart, especially Kiah, looked strong protecting the basket and they will make life miserable for any guard driving the lane. I can't see anything but pain for this new Stanford offense against what could be even a better defense this year.

Final prediction

 

It was disappointed the Stanford game wasn't televised. It's tough to make definitive statements based on a box score. But it does appear that Stanford is doing a good job implementing their new offense.

I love the guard matchups. The Stanford guards might be the best tandem UConn will meet this year. UConn won't be able to pressure them as much with two excellent ball handlers. But UConn will disrupt their offense once Geno see's what they are doing in their new offense and make adjustments. It will be a great test for the freshman Nurse when she is defending either Orrange or Thompson. I have a feeling she will be up to the task.

I don't see Stanford having the post players to stop the high/low between Stokes, Stewart, KML and Tuck, depending who is on the floor at the time. Between the inexperience and tough matchup issues I expect the Stanford posts to have foul trouble. UConn will hammer them on the offensive boards.

I think as the season progresses having Tuck and Nurse off the bench will be impossible for opponents to deal with. It's an advantage that no other team has and Monday night will be no different.

I don't see another 35 point effort for Stanford like the last time UConn was at Maples. There is a chance this game could start out like a shootout. But UConn will settle in defensively and there is just too big a talent gap for Stanford to keep it very close. Look for another 20+ point UConn win and a bunch of happy UConn fans.