Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Doggy's UConn/Notre Dame Pregame Report





Date: Thursday 
December 12th, 2024
South Bend, Indiana
Purcell Pavilion
Time: 7:00
TV: ESPN


No. 2 UConn Huskies                                             No. 8 Notre Dame

              8-0                                                                            7-2


Prior Meetings

NOTRE DAME | UCONN 
HUSKIES LEADS 39-15
H: 22-5 | A: 12-5 | N: 5-5

 01/18/96 #3 UConn 87, ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
02/24/96 #3 UConn 86, ND 79 Storrs, Conn. 
03/05/96 #2 UConn 71, ND 54 Storrs, Conn. 
02/09/97 #1 UConn 72, ND 49 Storrs, Conn. 
03/04/97 #1 UConn 86, ND77 Storrs, Conn. 
12/06/97 #3 UConn 78, ND 59 South Bend, Ind. 
02/21/98 #2 UConn 73, ND 61 Storrs, Conn. 
03/02/98 #3 UConn 73, ND 53 Piscataway, N.J. 
12/08/98 #1 UConn 106, ND 81 South Bend, Ind. 
03/02/99 #6 UConn 96, ND 75 Piscataway, N.J. 
02/26/00 #1 UConn 77, ND 59 Hartford, Conn. 
01/15/01 ND 92, #1 UConn 76 South Bend, Ind.
03/06/01 #2 UConn 78, ND 76 Storrs, Conn. 
03/30/01 ND 90, #1 UConn 75 St. Louis, Mo. 
01/21/02 #1 UConn 80, ND 53 Hartford, Conn. 
01/20/03 #2 UConn 72, ND 53 South Bend, Ind. 
02/23/03 #1 UConn 77, ND59 Storrs, Conn. 
01/13/04 ND 66, #4 UConn 51 South Bend, Ind.
01/12/05 #16 UConn 67, #7 ND 50 South Bend, Ind. 
01/30/05 #6 ND 65, #9 UConn 59 Storrs, Conn.
03/07/05 #14 UConn 67, #10 ND 54 Hartford, Conn. 
02/19/06 #8 UConn 79, ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
03/05/06 #7 UConn 71, ND 60 Hartford, Conn. 
01/27/07 #6 UConn 64, ND 47 Storrs, Conn. 
01/27/08 #1 UConn 81, #16 ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
02/22/09 #1 UConn 76, #24 ND 66 Hartford, Conn. 
01/16/10 #1 UConn 70, #3 ND 46 Storrs, Conn. 
03/01/10 #1 UConn 76, #8 ND 51 South Bend, Ind. 
03/08/10 #1 UConn 59, #6 ND 44 Hartford, Conn. 
01/08/11 #2 UConn 79, #19 ND 76 South Bend, Ind. 
02/19/11 #2 UConn 78, #8 ND 57 Storrs, Conn. 
03/08/11 #1 UConn 73, #10 ND 64 Hartford, Conn. 
04/03/11 #10 ND 72, #1 UConn 63 Indianapolis, Ind.
01/07/12 ND 74, #2 UConn 67 (OT) South Bend, Ind.
02/27/12 #3 ND 72, #4 UConn 59 Storrs, Conn.
03/06/12 #4 UConn 63, #3 ND 54 Hartford, Conn. 
04/01/12 #4 ND 83, #3 UConn 75 (OT) Denver, Colo.
01/05/13 #5 ND 73, #1 UConn 72 Storrs, Conn.
03/04/13 #2 ND 96, #3 UConn 87 (3OT) South Bend, Ind.
03/12/13 #2 ND 62, #3 UConn 59 Hartford, Conn.
04/07/13 #3 UConn 85, #2 ND 65 New Orleans, La. 
04/08/14 #1 UConn 79, #2 ND 58 Nashville, Tenn. 
12/06/14 #3 UConn 76, #2 ND 58 South Bend, Ind. 
04/07/15 #1 UConn 63, #2 ND 53 Tampa, Fla. 
12/05/15 #1 UConn 91, #3 ND 81 Storrs, Conn. 
12/07/16 #1 UConn 72, #2 ND 61 South Bend, Ind. 
12/03/17 #1 UConn 80, #3 ND 71 Hartford, Conn. 
03/30/18 #3 ND 91, #1 UConn 89 (OT) Columbus, Ohio
12/02/18 #2 UConn 89, #1 ND 71 South Bend, Ind.
04/05/19 #3 ND 81, #2 UConn 76 Tampa, Fla. 
12/08/19 #2 UConn 81, ND 57 Storrs, Conn.
12/05/21 #2 UConn 73, #24 Notre Dame 54  Hartford, Conn.
12/04/22 #7 ND 74, #3 UConn 60 South Bend, Ind.
01/27/24 #15 ND 82, #8 UConn 67 Storrs, Conn.
 
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Notre Dame

The Irish startered out like a ball of fire.  They pounded Mercyhurst 105-61, destroyed Purdue 102-58, annihilated James Madison 92-46 and clobbered Lafayette 91-55. In their first real test they easily handled No. 3 (at the time) USC 74-61.


A great start, going 5-0 and moving up in the polls to No. 3, including three first place votes. They looked that good.


It was the next game that showed what the short rotation (6) does to them. They lost back to back games. No. 17 at the time TCU beat them 76-68 and unranked Utah won 78-67. The Irish were reeling and had to face at the time No. 4 Texas. Notre Dame was able to dominate overtime and win 80-70. 


They were back on the domination road absolutely hammering Syracuse 93-62. 


They come into this game with UConn with a better state of mind and loads of confidence.   


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Comparative Team Statistics
(leader in bold)

                                             UConn                                       Notre Dame 

                                              80.4        PPG                            85.8
                                              49.5        Defensive PPG            63.0
                                              30.9        Scoring Margin           22.8
                                              51.8        Field Goal %               46.8
                                              34.3        Defensive FG%           35.4 
                                              34.7        Three Point %             38.2
                                              29.9        Defensive 3PT%          27.1
                                              66.3        Free Throw %             75.9
                                              38.8        Rebounds/game           46.7
                                                9.1        Rebounding Margin       9.9 
                                              22.3        Assists per game          16.7
                                              11.0        Turnover per game       16.2
                                                2.1        Assists/TO ratio             1.0
                                              10.6        Steals per game            12.6
                                                3.8        Blocks per game            6.9
    
*******************************************************************

Notre Dame

 


Notre Dame Starters
 Game Analysis

So, I am adding this tough news to the analysis. It's actually good news except for this game. No tear, no surgery, just what they call a sprain, I would call a twisted knee.

Last year I had the margin of victory at 15 points. I was right on with that number. I just had the wrong team. I was pretty much shocked to see UConn fall apart in the fourth quarter (the second quarter was awful too) in their 82-67 loss to Notre Dame at Gampel. It was maybe the worst game Paige had all last year scoring only 17 points on 6-17 shooting and 1-3 on threes. What UConn wasn't prepared for was Hannah Hildago. They knew she was good and quick but they had no answer for her. She scored 35 big points to lead the Irish. I'm pretty sure it was a learning experience for the players and Geno.

Notre Dame returns 3 starters from that game, Hildago, Sonia Citron and Olivia Miles. And they are the only available players from last year to play in this game.

UConn returns 5 players from last year's game and three of those started in that game. Paige was the only player that started last year but with the Fudd injury, Shade also returns as a starter. Arnold moved to the bench.

Here is a breakdown of the Notre Dame Seven.

Point Guard

Olivia Miles is their 5'10" junior graduate student point guard. She sat out with her knee injury last year but hasn't missed a beat in her return. She is playing a ton so far this season. 35.6 MPG. So far so good. She is averaging 16.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 6.4 APG. Fantastic stats. Miles is having her best shooting season as well. 52.7% from the field and 48.6% on free throws. She is a very creative offensive player.

Shooting Guard

Sophomore Hannah Hidago is just a superstar. Coming off a Freshman season where she was a first team All-American, she is backing that up with another great year. She is a 5'6" bundle of energy. A little to much preening but she does back it up. She is leading the team in scoring at 24.6 PPG. Her assists are down with Miles playing the point but still at 3.4 APG, and she is a defensive wizard. She just has a knack for it. Quick hands and great anticipation. 4.4 steals per game. She is playing 37.9 MPG.

Small forward

Sonia Citron is the third leading scorer for Notre Dame at 13.4 PPG. She adds in 5.7 RPG. The 6'1'' junior guard is a tough matchup for anyone. A big guard, she is difficult to defend. I would use the word fearless for her game. She will hit the open shot. Right now her FG% is down at 40.7% and three point shooting 29.7. She is better than that and will have to be closely defended.

Power Forward

Pitt Transfer Liatu King, a 6' Grad Student Forward has been terrific so far for the Irish. Last year at Pitt she was first team All-ACC and ACC most improved player. Last season she averaged career-highs in every major statistical category. 18.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.5 blocks and 35.4 minutes per game with a FG% of 52.3 and a FT% of 71.1. She hasn't let down at Notre Dame. Her scoring is down with the three great guards doing most of it but the rest of her stats are terrific. She is averging 13.1 PPG, 10.9 RPG. She is shooting 58% from the field but her weakness is from the line shooting 54%.  
Center

The only Freshman in the rotation, 6'5" Kate Koval fills the middle. She has great High School credentials. She was the No. 5 overall recruit (No. 1 post player) in the 2024 class according to the ESPN HoopGurlz rankings, 2024 McDonald’s All-American, 2024 SLAM All-American, and 2024 Jordan Brand Classic Her stats are very deceiving. She dominated the weak teams but in her games against the better teams she really struggled. Against TCU she was scoreless and had 6 rebounds in 30 minutes. Against Utah she had 0 points and 4 rebounds in 19 minutes. Those were two Notre Dame losses. And in the latest game, Notre Dame s OT win over Texas she had 4 points and 4 rebounds and 5 blocks in 35 minutes. Overall in 29.5 MPG she is averaging 7.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG and 3.9 BPG.

Bench

Right now only 6'2" Sophomore Guard Cassandra Prosper and 6'1" Sophomore Guard Emma Risch will see any time on the court other than the starters. Unless there is foul trouble for the Irish players the duo will only see 15-20 minutes, mostly spelling Koval and King. Both big guards, Notre Dame has no choice but to play either Risch or Prosper in the front court. Prosper is playing 26.9 MPG, with 7.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG. She shoots 39% from the field and 33% on threes. Risch plays 13.9 MPG and scores 4.5 PPG and 1.5 RPG.
So how do they match up?

First issue is what to do about Hidalgo? Nika really struggled with her last year. And I haven't seen any team shut her down. You can only hope to slow her down. This teams I'm looking at the two point guards to wear her down a little. Chen isn't quick enough but is very savvy. KK Arnold is very quick and sneaky strong. Between the two they have 10 fouls to give to wear her down. Hidalgo will get her points, it's more keeping her from dominating on defense with her ability to steal the ball. They did a good job last year as she didn't have a steal. And between Chen and Aronld they have 50 assists and only 15 turnovers. This matchup will go a long way in determining the outcome.        
 
And then you have Miles. A terrific point guard, UConn will cover her with a combination of Bueckers and Shade. Whoever is guarding her has to stay out on her shooting hand as she is their best three point shooter so far. And hope that UConn help defense will be there if and when she drives by her defender. 

Citron finally had a great shooting game against Syracuse going 4-6 on threes. She has been a UConn killer over the years. Not big numbers but big shots. I can see Cheli getting some time off the bench here but Bueckers and Shade will switch off Miles to guard her. 

I'm really looking forward to the King/Strong matchup. I'm pretty sure they will be going head to head for the majority of the game. King is one of those 6' rebounding machines. She is just in the right place at the right time and a very strong player. Great anticipation. But how will she handle playing a forward with the offensive skills that Strong brings to the table? if anyone can keep King somewhat off the boards is Strong. 

Finally, the center position. Which Koval will we see? I'm guessing somewhere in between the dominant player she was against the weak teams and the washout against the good teams. And I think Brady and Jana will have the advantage. El Alfy presents some size that Koval hasn't seen and Ice will play at the top of the key bringing Koval away from the basket making her less effective. Both UConn centers can't bring the ball down after a rebound. Hildago is a menace at stealing those balls.     

Intangibles are in Notre Dame's favor. Playing in front of a crazy home crowd and against No. 2 UConn will cause an adrenaline rush that will overcome any fatigue from playing 4 players close to 40 minutes each. On the UConn side, they had that home court advantage and it didn't help. But revenge is a strong emotion and after being embarrassed at home last year against this team, UConn will be strongly motivated. 

And while Nell Ivey is a terrific young coach she is no Geno. you can bet Geno will have a few wrinkles after last years blowout.  

Final Prediction


This is a tough one to call. I know it's early but according to the latest bracketology, this is a game of two No. 1 seeds. UConn is the Top No. 1 seed at this time. Fudd will be out this game and her absence will make a difference. Thankfully UConn has an experienced shooting guard in Shade to move back into the starting lineup. Geno might only go 8 deep in the rotation with Bueckers, Fudd, Strong, Chen, Brady, El Alfy, Shade, and Arnold. Add in Cheli for plenty of  minutes with Fudd is out for this game. 

We had seen a lot of inconsistency for UConn with 1-2 quarters of bad play and plenty of really good play. That was until the Louisville game where the Huskies just dominated the 22nd ranked Cardinal. However, Notre Dame is not Louisville.  The Huskies can't afford to let the Irish go on big runs and let the crowd and the overly expressive Hidalgo go crazy. I think UConn, behind the big two Paige and Sarah will pull this one out. But it will be close. I can imagine Paige taking on even more responsibility with Fudd out. Expect vintage Bueckers. And calm and cool Strong will be a tough matchup for the Irish. 

Huskies by 3+.

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