Sunday, April 24, 2016

DoggyDaddy's Dailies 4/25/16


 
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Reunited and it feels so good......
Kaili McLaren, one of my favorite UConn players, has signed a training camp contract with Minnesota. I'm sure you recognize the player on the right.

"McLaren, a 6-foot-2 forward, played for Urla Eda in Turkey's 2nd division league in 2014-15, averaging 15.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 13 games. She played collegiately at Connecticut, averaging 3.2 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game while shooting 51.3 percent in four seasons."

I have the full article in the WNBA section of links.

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 One of my best UConn buddies, Phil, post this great information on a UConn message board. I asked him permission to share it with all of you. It's a great way-early look at how the NCAA tournament selection committee might look at next year's sites based on possible results. 

You all have probably seen Phil if you watch the games.

Phil and DoggyDaddy

Phil with the sign he had at every NCAA game!!!
Anyway, enough with the introductions. Enjoy Phil and his excellent insight into NCAA womens basketball.

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For next season there are some things we do know, and if we couple that with some things that are likely or plausible, we can see that next year selection committee may have some challenges.

Let's start with what we know for sure. The four regionals will be:
Bridgeport
Lexington
Oklahoma City
Stockton 

We also know that geographical proximity is important to the committee. Maybe you all can picture exactly where those four locations are, relative to each of the potential teams, but there's a map on the 2017 tournament page which will help provide insight:
2017 Regional map

It is also the case that they used to be a time that the committee ranked the top teams in order, gave the number one seed the closest regional, the number two see the next closest etc. There was also a time the second seeds would be lined up so the weakest to see get the strongest one seed but that was abandoned in favor of geography. What I believe is also true but less well known is that geography is important enough that it might trump the overall rankings. That is, the number one seed might not necessarily get the closest regional if another set up made the aggregate distances smaller.

Now let's move on to things that aren't quite a certain but certainly plausible. Notre Dame looks like it could be a very highly ranked team next year, very possibly ending at number one. If you look at the map, Notre Dame is far closer to Lexington than any of the other three options. A few years ago, if Notre Dame gets the overall number one seed the sent to Lexington, easy peasy, end of discussion move on to the next one.

Next year might be a little more difficult. We all know that South Carolina was one of the top four seeds and had their eyes on Lexington. They didn't go to Lexington but went to Sioux Falls. While the selection committee might compartmentalize their decisions, I strongly suspect that there is some concept of aggregate balance over time. This doesn't mean that South Carolina gets Lexington even if they are number one seed but there will be a lot of pressure.

I can see those people from Louisville waving "what about us?"

Some pollsters think Louisville might be as high as number two. I'm not so convinced but let's at least consider what happens if they make it to the top four. At less than an hour and a half driving, not to mention being in the same state, Louisville will very much be interested in Lexington. They certainly won't be interested in Bridgeport, Oklahoma City or Stockton.

Suppose you do decide that Louisville makes the top four and ought to get that very short drive. Then what do you do it Notre Dame? You know they don't want to go to Oklahoma City and they won't go to Stockton, so do you send them to Bridgeport?

Connecticut might earn a number one seed but is unlikely to be the top overall seed. They don't have to be the top overall seed to get to Bridgeport, but if you send Connecticut to Bridgeport, you run into other problems.You already have Notre Dame, Louisville and South Carolina all interested in Lexington and obviously only one of them can go there. If those are the top four, one could go to Oklahoma City but do you send the other to Stockton? Nothing against Stockton per se; I'm sure that West Coast teams will be thrilled to be there but East Coast teams will not want to head out to California. So if Connecticut gets Bridgeport, you have to send South Carolina or Louisville or Notre Dame out to Stockton. That won't go over well if they are ranked ahead of Connecticut.

And we aren't done yet.

Charlie Creme has Baylor is a two-seed. I won't be surprised if they are the second overall seed. Obviously, Baylor is most interested in going to Oklahoma City, but if they end up getting one of the top bids then who goes to Stockton?

The committee might be in better shape if Connecticut does well but not quite well enough to earn a one seed. If they are a two seed they can be sent to Bridgeport much more easily, but go ahead and tell me that South Carolina or Notre Dame would be happy as the one seed in Bridgeport with Connecticut in the region.
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Wow....crazy possibilities. Thanks Phil!!!!
 
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 By David in Naples
 
UConn's defense had 241 blocked shots last season, the lowest total in the last four years. But, they had 447 steals, the highest number in those four seasons. The graduation of Stewie, MoJeff and Morgan will impact both of those totals, but not to the same degree. Consider:

1. Blocked shots - Stewie led the team with 126 blocks and her nearest team mate, Napheesa Collier, only had 47. Natalie Butler was third at 21 blocks. Combined with Tuck and Jefferson, 60% of the Huskies blocked shot total graduated. Collier and Butler would seem to be the favorites to increase their blocked shots next season, with more playing time. Collier played 17.2 minutes per game and blocked a shot every 13.9 minutes. Butler played only 325 minutes and her blocks came to one every 15.5 minutes. By comparison, Stewie blocked a shot every 8.5 minutes and probably discouraged several hundred shots from even being taken. After Napheesa (47) and Butler (21), the next leading shot blocker is Gabby Williams with 13. Katie Lou had 6 and can improve that total, while Kia Nurse had 6 in basically the same number of minutes as Stewie. Perhaps Kyla Irwin will step up and help in the shot blocking department. ;)

2. Steals - The chief thief, Moriah, led the Huskies with 95 steals last season. However, together with the other seniors, only 42% of UConn's steal total graduated. But, that means 58% of last season's thievery returns. Leading that group will be Gabby Williams who had 72 steals in 1/3 less minutes than Moriah. Right behind her were Kia and Napheesa with 50 steals each. KLS was just behind them with 38 and Saniya had 21, including the all important steal that led to the Pulido Basket..!! Just a guess, but Crystal Dangerfield and Molly Bent both seem rather larcenous and Natalie Butler/Kyla Irwin would only need 26 to replace Tuck's steals. While it may not be possible to get all the way to 447, two season's ago the Huskies went undefeated with just 375 steals. :D

Depending on the line up Geno and company put on the floor, UConn could be shorter, but faster and ready to steal everything not nailed down. Imagine Dangerfield, Gabby, KSL, Collier and Nurse smothering opponents, stealing the ball as well as everyone's lunch money. 8-) Just the four from last season had 210 steals in a combined average of just 22 minutes per game, per player. By comparison, Stewie, Mo and Morgan had 188 steals on an average of 28 minutes per game, per player. Watch for the Huskies to steal, steal, steal next season.

Go Huskies..!!
 
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2 comments:

  1. Enjoy your daily blog. I look for it every day. Keep up the great work!!
    I know it is way too early to look at next season's starting five, but feel compelled to comment on repeated references to the new lineup which exclude Chong from the mix. She is quick, shoots well, is versed in the system and her defensive skills, while not "wow" are certainly more than an incoming freshman can offer at the outset. Admittedly, she needs to bring it every day; but, if healthy, she deserves a shot and ought not so easily be written off.
    Just sayin....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. She will see more time if healthy. That is the key for her.

      Delete