Doggy's Semi-Final UConn/Notre Dame Pregame Report











        UCONN vs Notre Dame

Date: Friday

 April 5th, 2019
Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Florida

Time: 9:00

TV: ESPN2

UConn Huskies                                                  Notre Dame

35-2                                                                                                         34-3

Prior Meetings

NOTRE DAME | UCONN LEADS 37-12
H: 20-4 | A: 12-4 | N: 5-4

 01/18/96 #3 UConn 87, ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
02/24/96 #3 UConn 86, ND 79 Storrs, Conn. 
03/05/96 #2 UConn 71, ND 54 Storrs, Conn. 
02/09/97 #1 UConn 72, ND 49 Storrs, Conn. 
03/04/97 #1 UConn 86, ND77 Storrs, Conn. 
12/06/97 #3 UConn 78, ND 59 South Bend, Ind. 
02/21/98 #2 UConn 73, ND 61 Storrs, Conn. 
03/02/98 #3 UConn 73, ND 53 Piscataway, N.J. 
12/08/98 #1 UConn 106, ND 81 South Bend, Ind. 
03/02/99 #6 UConn 96, ND 75 Piscataway, N.J. 
02/26/00 #1 UConn 77, ND 59 Hartford, Conn. 
01/15/01 ND 92, #1 UConn 76 South Bend, Ind.
03/06/01 #2 UConn 78, ND 76 Storrs, Conn. 
03/30/01 ND 90, #1 UConn 75 St. Louis, Mo. 
01/21/02 #1 UConn 80, ND 53 Hartford, Conn. 
01/20/03 #2 UConn 72, ND 53 South Bend, Ind. 
02/23/03 #1 UConn 77, ND59 Storrs, Conn. 
01/13/04 ND 66, #4 UConn 51 South Bend, Ind.
01/12/05 #16 UConn 67, #7 ND 50 South Bend, Ind. 
01/30/05 #6 ND 65, #9 UConn 59 Storrs, Conn.
03/07/05 #14 UConn 67, #10 ND 54 Hartford, Conn. 
02/19/06 #8 UConn 79, ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
03/05/06 #7 UConn 71, ND 60 Hartford, Conn. 
01/27/07 #6 UConn 64, ND 47 Storrs, Conn. 
01/27/08 #1 UConn 81, #16 ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
02/22/09 #1 UConn 76, #24 ND 66 Hartford, Conn. 
01/16/10 #1 UConn 70, #3 ND 46 Storrs, Conn. 
03/01/10 #1 UConn 76, #8 ND 51 South Bend, Ind. 
03/08/10 #1 UConn 59, #6 ND 44 Hartford, Conn. 
01/08/11 #2 UConn 79, #19 ND 76 South Bend, Ind. 
02/19/11 #2 UConn 78, #8 ND 57 Storrs, Conn. 
03/08/11 #1 UConn 73, #10 ND 64 Hartford, Conn. 
04/03/11 #10 ND 72, #1 UConn 63 Indianapolis, Ind.
01/07/12 ND 74, #2 UConn 67 (OT) South Bend, Ind.
02/27/12 #3 ND 72, #4 UConn 59 Storrs, Conn.
03/06/12 #4 UConn 63, #3 ND 54 Hartford, Conn. 
04/01/12 #4 ND 83, #3 UConn 75 (OT) Denver, Colo.
01/05/13 #5 ND 73, #1 UConn 72 Storrs, Conn.
03/04/13 #2 ND 96, #3 UConn 87 (3OT) South Bend, Ind.
03/12/13 #2 ND 62, #3 UConn 59 Hartford, Conn.
04/07/13 #3 UConn 85, #2 ND 65 New Orleans, La. 
04/08/14 #1 UConn 79, #2 ND 58 Nashville, Tenn. 
12/06/14 #3 UConn 76, #2 ND 58 South Bend, Ind. 
04/07/15 #1 UConn 63, #2 ND 53 Tampa, Fla. 
12/05/15 #1 UConn 91, #3 ND 81 Storrs, Conn. 
12/07/16 #1 UConn 72, #2 ND 61 South Bend, Ind. 
12/03/17 #1 UConn 80, #3 ND 71 Hartford, Conn. 
03/30/18 #3 ND 91, #1 UConn 89 (OT) Columbus, Ohio
12/3/18 #2 UConn 89, #1 ND, South Bend, Ind.

I put the UConn wins in bold to emphasize the UConn dominance

This Year's Highlights

It was clear from the start that UConn had the advantage in athleticism and speed. Even with the increased condition for Shepard, she still looked so much slower than the UConn players. Mabrey was able to play 40 minutes but again, other than her slithery moves to the basket, she was ineffective. Turner was not nearly as explosive as she was before her injury. Has she fully recovered? Young and Ogunbowale are very good athletes, but it was clearly not enough to slow down the Huskies.

As I mentioned in my first pre-game report, it would come down to the starting five for each team. Neither team's benches are real difference makers. That being said, ONO was just terrific in this game. The stats don't really show how much she impacted the game. I'm sure Geno would have put Napheesa back in if Olivia wasn't doing the job. 

UConn didn't shoot well, but Notre Dame shot even worse. The Huskies were 45.3% from the field and 23.5% on threes. Notre Dame was 40.3% and 1-12 on threes. I think UConn just wore them out. UConn also outrebounded the bigger Irish 46-41. I didn't expect that.   

The game was both wonderful and upsetting to me. The outcome and how the Huskies came to play was just wonderful. The way Notre Dame comported themselves was very upsetting.

It was mostly how chippy Notre Dame was. We all know about the technical that Ogunbowale received for her nasty hook on Dangerfield's neck. A very dangerous play. She also intentionally hip checked Dangerfield and then tripped her on the same play. Nothing was called with the ref staring right at the play. And she also undercut Williams on one of her drives to the basket. One play like that was enough. Three? That's a big problem that Coach McGraw should address.

There was also the obnoxious complaining after every call by Mabrey, where one time she waved at the refs in disgust. Terrible attitude. I'm sure you all notices that as well.  

Team Overviews

While the overall advantage is 37-12 UConn, there was a period where Notre Dame dominated the rivalry. At one point Notre Dame won 7 of 8 games between April of 2011 and March of 2013. But since then, things have changed again. UConn had won the last 7 games between the two teams. And it hasn't been that close with the margins being 18, 21, 18, two years ago National Championship UConn won by 10 points and last two years regular season matchup was 10 and 11  points. And in the first game last year, UConn won by 9 points. 

However, in the semi-final game of the NCAA tournament last year, Notre Dame got the last laugh with a 91-89 win in overtime. Enough said about that! 

Another however....UConn put a hurting on Notre Dame early in the season on the Irish home court winning 89-71. I guess that is now the last laugh? But it doesn't erase the pain of that Semi-final loss last year. It will be either redemption time for UConn for last year's loss or revenge for Notre Dame for this year's regular season loss.         

Below are the players that will see action in this game. I added how they did in the first UConn/Notre Dame game in December.  

            

  UCONN

          

UConn Starters

24 Napheesa Collier

6'1" Senior Forward

32 Min., 7-13 FG, 16 points, 15 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 3 blocks 

33 Katie Lou Samuelson

6'3" Senior Guard/Forward

37 Min., 5-16 FG, 0-4 3FG, 15 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal, 1 block 

5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Junior Guard

40 Min., 4-15 FG, 1-6 3FG, 13 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal

3 Megan Walker

6'1" Sophomore Guard/Forward

35 Min., 5-10 FG, 1-3 3FG, 12 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists

13 Christyn Williams

5'11" Freshman Guard

40 Min., 11-16 FG, 2-4 3FG, 28 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist

UConn Bench

20 Olivia Nelson-Ododa
6'4" Freshman Forward

16 Min., 2-5 FG, 5 points, 5 rebounds, 1 block

UCONN TEAM STATS

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish

 

Notre Dame Coach

Muffet McGraw

  

McGraw is considered by many the 2nd best active coach in WCBB. It's hard to argue that based on the accomplishments of her program. She is a terrific recruiter, a fine tactician and a wonderful motivator of young women. Notre Dame certainly knows that and in July 2012, she signed a landmark 10-year contract extension that will keep her coaching at Notre Dame through the 2021-22 campaign.

The past 23 seasons (1995-96 to the present) have been the most successful in Notre Dame's history.

If you want to read some terrific detail about her career, here is the link to her Notre Dame Bio.

Notre Dame Starters

  

2 Arike Ogunbowale

 5'8" Senior Guard    

38 Min., 6-18 FG, 0-6 3FG, 18 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 block

5 Jackie Young

6' Junior Guard

40 Min., 6-14 FG, 18 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block

Jessica Shepard

6'4" Senior Center

34 Min., 6-13 FG, 13 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists

3 Marina Mabrey

 5'11" Senior Guard

40 Min., 4-13 FG, 1-6 3FG, 11 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block

11 Briana Turner

6'3" Grad Student Forward

33 Min., 4-7 FG, 10 points, 6 rebounds, 1 steal, 4 blocks

Notre Dame Bench 

  

12 Abby Proheska

5'11" Freshman Guard

2 minutes. 

32 Danielle Patterson 

 6'2" Sophomore Forward    

12 min., 1-2 FG, 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist  

30 Mikayla Vaughn 

 6'3" Sophomore  Center    

1 minute

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 Game Analysis

UConn has three starters returning in Katie Lou Samuelson, Napheesa Collier, Crystal Dangerfield and has moved 2017 No.1 recruit Megan Walker and 2018 No. 1 recruit Christyn Williams into the starting lineup. 

Notre Dame has four starters back from their National Championship team in 5'11 Senior guard Marina Mabrey, 6'4" Senior center Jessica Shepard, 5'8" Senior guard Arike Ogunbowale and 6' Junior guard Jackie Young and plus a former starter back after a season off rehabbing from injury in 6'3" Senior Brianna Turner. 

That maybe makes these two starting teams the most talented in WCBB. The benches are a totally different story. 

UConn will only bring off the bench 6'4" Freshman forward/center Olivia Nelson-Ododa. 

Notre Dame will probably not bring anyone off the bench in this one unless there is foul trouble. If so it could be any of these players -  6'3" Sophomore center Mikayla Vaughn, 6'2" Sophomore forward Danielle Paterson and 5'10" Freshman guard Abby Proheska.  

Offensively, Notre Dame will play their usual motion offense no matter who is in the lineup. They set tough off the ball screens, trying to get their shooters open.  Notre Dame is going to be using every tactic they can to free their two best outside shooters Mabrey and Ogunbowale.

The Irish will also use the pick and roll with Shepard and Turner. And try a ton of back cuts and even alley oops with Turner off of those aforementioned screens. Young is the wild card in this offense. She is the best athlete on the team and can score in bunches. That all being said, we all know that Notre Dame is a well coached and can play like a well-oiled offensive team and they showed that against Iowa in their last game. However, at times, Ogunwale dominates the offense and sometimes do the detriment of the team. And of course at times she dominates the offense, carrying the Irish to victories.   

Defensively, Notre Dame uses some trapping defenses but for the most part, they will play a switching man-to-man like UConn does. But in recent times, they have been playing a zone and I can see them try that again with the UConn advantage in quickness. In the past what they have done best is get into the passing lanes to create turnovers. This season they average 9 steals per game. Turner adds a shot blocking dimension that they didn't have last season, but UConn should be able to get to the rim on drives.  

UConn will do what they do best offensively. They will run their own motion offense, looking for post entry passes to Collier, Walker and Samuelson although Collier is really the main post player on offense. UConn will also use their defense to spark their offense. This version of UConn relies a lot on the three point shot with Samuelson, Dangerfield, Williams, Walker and even Collier when open to hit the open three. UConn will set screens to get them open and also use their terrific ball movement to do the same.    

Defensively, look for UConn to pressure Notre Dame. Not necessarily to turn over, although that will be a big part of their defense, but more to take time off the clock forcing Notre Dame into bad shots.  The Irish really don't have a traditional point guard so Mabrey is the starting at that position. Mabrey is a decent ball handler but could have real trouble with the UConn pressure defense. 

Final Prediction

Oh boy....a tough game to predict.

Both teams are dynamite on offense and tough on defense. Notre Dame has the edge in score, averaging 89.0 points per game and UConn is averaging 82.9.  On defense, it's UConn with the advantage averaging 55.9 points per game allowed while Notre Dame is giving up 64.2. That being said, they did actually play each other and UConn was able to score 89 points and Notre Dame only 71.

I looked at the stats closely to see where I could see some advantages.

UConn is just shooting lights out at 49.3% and 36.6% on threes. Notre Dame is shooting 51.6% and 36.3 on threes. Notre Dame with the slight advantage here.

On defense, UConn is allowing 34.0% from the field and  28.0% on threes. Notre Dame is allowing  37.1% from the field and 28.6% on threes. UConn has the advantage.

The numbers are close enough that there really isn't a real advantage. UConn won the first game behind a 28 point effort from the freshman Christyn Williams. I don't think you will see that again. I also don't think that the players on both teams that had poor shooting nights will necessarily have the same problems. 

What else is different? Well, Shepard for ND is playing better as the season went on. And for UConn, Walker is playing better. 

If you go player by player, maybe an advantage can be discovered?

Shooting guard is Ogunbowale vs Williams. You have to still give the advantage to the player that hit two game winning shots in the final four. But it's certainly not a big advantage as Williams is playing really good ball right now. 

Center is a tough one just because I don't know who will play center for UConn. They don't have one. But I expect that Walker will guard Shepard. You have to give ND an advantage there only because Megan is just not consistent in her play. But her outside shooting, if Shepard is guarding her could be problematic for ND.

Power forward is easy. Collier is a first team AA and Turner, while a very good player, is not the player she was before her injuries. Advantage UConn.

"Small" forward is Samuelson vs Young. If we get the Samuelson from the UCLA game, it's advantage ND. If its the Samuelson from the Louisville game, it's advantage UConn. Young is a terrific player and has had some success guarding Katie Lou. But she did injure a finger against Stanford and had two taped together on her shooting hand. Probably no impact but you don't know how it will be on Friday. I'll call this even but that all depends on Katie Lou hitting her shots.

Here is where I think UConn has a big advantage and might even be a game changer. Mabrey has really struggled at times this season and Dangerfield has the ability to just take over a game as she did against UCLA. Her speed is something that no one on the ND team can deal with. 

Overall, it's such an even game with the two teams with the best starting five players going head to head. It will all depend on which team is hot. I like UConn's speed to really give Notre Dame some problems. There were several times in the Notre Dame/Texas A&M game where the Aggies ability to run after a rebound really had the Irish on their heals.           

So, my prediction? I will certainly pick UConn. The margin? Well I said 10 points in the UCLA game and only a late basket by the Bruins screwed that up for me, and I said 7 points in the Louisville game and I hit that right on the nose. In this game? It could be a late game shot by a UConn star the that wins the game. And it will be by 3+.