UConn vs South Carolina
Sunday April 3rd , 2022
8:00 PM
Target Center
Minneapolis, Minnesota
ESPN
Huskies Gamecocks
30-5 34-2
SOUTH CAROLINA | UCONN LEADS 9-2
H: 5-0 | A: 3-1 | N: 1-1
12/17/07 #2 UConn 97, USC 39 Storrs, Conn.
12/28/08 #1 UConn 77, USC 48 Columbia, S.C.
02/09/15 #2 UConn 87, #1 USC 62 Storrs, Conn.
02/08/16 #1 UConn 66, #2 USC 54 Columbia, S.C.
02/13/17 #1 UConn 66, #6 USC 55 Storrs, Conn.
02/01/18 #1 UConn 83, #7 USC 58 Columbia, S.C.
03/26/18 #1 UConn 94, #7 USC 65 Albany, N.Y.
02/11/19 #4 UConn 97, #11 USC 79 Hartford, Conn.
02/10/20 #1 USC 70, #5 UConn 52 Columbia, S.C.
02/08/21 #2 UConn 63, #1 USC 59 (OT) Storrs, Conn.
11/22/21 #2 UConn 57, #1 USC 73 Paridise Island, Bahamas
South Carolina
Season to Date
From the beginning of the season to the end, South Carolina came into every game ranked No. 1, favored to win. Not once were they the underdog.
Playing one of the more difficult OOC schedules, they started the season beating at the time No. 5 North Carolina State 66-57 and 3 games later they beat at the time No. 9 Oregon and 80-63 at the time No. 2 UConn 73-57. After a few more cupcakes, they beat at the time No. 8 Maryland 66-59, at the time No. 15 Duke 55-46 and then No. 2 Stanford 65-61 in consecutive games. In the very next game that were shocked by unranked Missouri 70-69 in overtime. They then went on a 17 game SEC winning streak before blowing a big lead in the fourth quarter and being upset by unranked Kentucky 64-62 in the SEC tournament final.
The Gamecocks have run through their opponents in the NCAA tournament. They have stuggled on the offensive end but dominated the defensive end in winning there Sweet Sixteen games, beating 5 seed North Carolina 69-61 and 10 seed Creighton 80-50.
Against Louisville, they were just the better team, pushing to a double digit lead in the second half before winning 72-59.
Comparative Team Statistics
UConn South Carolina
74.8 PPG 71.1
54.6 Defensive PPG 50.7
20.2 Scoring Margin 20.4
48.2 Field Goal % 42.8
35.6 Defensive FG% 33.0
34.0 Three Point % 30.9
28.8 Defensive 3PT% 26.7
68.8 Free Throw % 67.7
38.8 Rebounds/game 47.8
7.3 Rebounding Margin 17.5
18.1 Assists per game 14.1
13.8 Turnover per game 14.4
1.3 Assists/TO ratio .9
9.2 Steals per game 6.5
4.7 Blocks per game 7.3
UCONN
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are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
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SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina Starters
Game Analysis
Well, I'll admit it. I never expected UConn to get to this game. And I certainly expected South Carolina to be here. But as much as I didn't expect it, I was hoping for a rematch. I always thought that fourth quarter in that first game was an anomoly. I mean, three points in 10 minutes?
Both teams have evolved some since then.
UConn went through so many injuries, a long run of games without their best player, working other players into the rotation and then once everyone way back, losing a big piece of their puzzle again. The Huskies, however, are now playing with a consistent starting lineup in Bueckers, Fudd, Williams, Edwards and Nelson-Ododa. For sure Westbrook will see double digit minutes and I believe that Muhl is a big part of how they defend the South Carolina backcourt. Will Ducharme see minutes? Only Geno knows.
South Carolina has started the same five players all season other than three games that Henderson missed in mid-season. and one game that Cooke missed. Talk about consistency. That is Boston, Henderson, Cooke, Saxton and Beal. I like to look at the most recent games to see the trend in the tournament and who will see minutes on Sunday. In the Sweet Sixteen game, only Grissett played double digit minutes. Even in the blowout against Creighton, again only Grissett played double digit minutes, although Cardosa played 9 minutes. And finally against Louisville, in a big surprise, freshman Sanyia Rivers played 20 minutes. And Amihere played 15 minutes. Like most coaches, Staley goes with her gut in who will match up the best. Any way you look at it, Dawn is only playing 7 players against UConn. And more than likely off the bench it will be Grissett and/or Amihere. Cardosa will play but I done't see Dawn going with the twin towers so she is there to just rest Boston or when Boston has foul issues. I don't see Rivers duplicating her last game of 20 minutes. Althoght she did have 4 assists and 2 steals, she was 1-7 from the field. And looked a little lost on defense.
We all know this South Carolina team very well. Boston is just a dominant player. Nelson-Ododa and Edwards will have their hands full. Once she gets the ball in the paint, she has a myriad of post moves that pretty much makes her unstopable. She either makes the basket or gets fouled. The Huskies can't stop her but they can make if more difficult for her by denying the entry pass and pressuring the guards so they can't make that pass.
The problem with that strategy is that both Henderson and Cooke can dribble drive past the defender when they are played close. Then it will be up to Nelson-Ododa to protect the rim. Look for both guards to pass off the drives if that is the case. It's a real conumdrum for the Huskies. Hey, it's not supposed to be easy according to Geno.
So, I've only mentioned three players on offense and there is a reason for that. Boston, Cooks and Henderson take over 52% of their shots on the season? In their last three games? Well, I'd throw out the Creighton game. That was a blowout and the three players got plenty of reast. But in the North Carolina game and the Louisville game? Those three took 63% of the shots. I'd look for more of that against UConn.
As a team, South Carolina has struggled at times offensively. Their offense is not why they are so good. They only shoot 42.8% (73rd in the country) from the field and 30.9% (170th) on threes. Not good for the top rated/ranked team in the country. In regards to three pointers, Henerson at 39% and Cooke at 29% take the half of the Gamecocks shots.
But it's not offense that propels South Carolina to their wins. They win with great defense. They only give up 33% (1st in the country) on field goals and 26.7% (20th) . Their big advantage is their rebounding, especially on the offensive end. It's the reason they take more shots than their opponents. They grab 41% more offensive rebounds than their opponents. Put those two factors together and you can see why they only give up 50 PPG (3rd in the country).
I've been thinking about where I should bring up the elephant in the room, the Battle in the Bahama's on Monday, November 22nd. I remember it well. I was visiting my son in Florida and we had tickets to the Tampa Bay game that Monday night. So we were driving across the state and all I could do was watch ESPN Gamecast. It seemed UConn was in the game the entire way, down only 6 points on a three pointer by Westbroom. But it was the only basket in the first five minutes of the quarter and I thought my phone was stuck as it was the only basket for UConn the rest of the way. It really was shocking and I'll admit, I never went back to watch that quarter of play. Closing to a 10-0 run is not something I needed to see.
So how does that game impact what will happend in Sunday's game? While I believe that South Carolina is playing great basketball, it's pretty much the same they have played all season. Really good, but not really any better. UConn, on the other hand, is not the same team that lost that game by 16 points. Not even close.
For one thing, Westbrook moved to the bench and Fudd entered the starting lineup. I'm not sure South Carolina gave Azzi a second thought in that game. She only played 10 minutes and took only 1 shot, missing that one. Her foot was clearly bothering her in that game. Dorka played 20 ineffective minutes, and while it would be great to have her available, she had 5 bad turnovers. Nika Muhl only played 3 minutes, and after seeing how she played against Stanford in her 18 minutes, I expect her to see double digit minutes on Sunday.
As dominate as the big three for South Carolina are for their team, UConn has adopted the motto "everyone eats". And it couldn't have been more pronounced against Stanford. They had six players scoring 8, 8, 9, 10, 12 and 14 points. Expect more of that from UConn.
There will be several keys to the game for both teams.
I'm sure that Dawn will assign Beal to guard Bueckers. She did an amazing job on Van Lith for Louisville, setting the tone for the South Carolina defense by blocking Van Lith's first two jump shots. Can she slow down Paige? Not an easy job.
Foul trouble again. It seems that is the big issue with Nelson-Ododa and Edwards. And it will be again as they try to slow down Boston. I'm sure Geno will switch off in coverage to help keeping them out of foul trouble. It won't be easy.
If South Carolina hit's their threes, it could be over. But they haven't so far. They were hot early in the Louisville game but then hit their usual cold spell the rest of the game.
I guess the same could be said for UConn. They haven't been hitting a high percentage of threes, but they certainly have the better shooters. South Carolina has to defend the arc.
Rebounding will be key. Stanford was a great rebounding team this season and UConn dominated the boards against them. When Stanford played the Gamecocks earlier in the season, they played to a standstill on the boards. UConn has to match up better against them than they did in their first matchup. South Carolina outrebounded the Huskies in that game 42-25 with 19 offesnive rebounds. Way to many second chance points.
Coaching could be a diffence in this game. I don't think anyone would argue that Geno is a better in-game coach than Dawn. And adjustments will be huge in this game. Geno is 11-0 in championship games, Dawn is 1-0. Two undefeated coaches.
Final Prediction
Ok....time for my final predicttion of the season. I've had some good ones and some not so good ones.
The game could be a classic. I'm more inclinded to think it will be more like the 63-59 overtime game where Paige scored the last 14 points of the game for the Huskies. Including that three pointer that hit the back of the rim, went 10 feet in the air and then came down through the net. That game was a back and forth affair. expect that again.
It will come down to making plays and making shots in the fourth quarter. And UConn has done well in close games in the tournament. They are tornament tough. I don't think that South Carolina has been challenged late outside of a little bit by North Carolina. And they certainly didn't play well in a close game against Kentucky in the SEC championship games. I give this edge to UConn.
Boston will keep them in the game, but the outside shooting will take them out of it.
UConn by 4+.
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