Doggydaddy's Den: Doggy's Doghouse 11/23/2022

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GO UCONN!!!!!

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I'll try to put together a Duke pregame report but with the Thanksgiving holiday, I might not make it in time. So here are a few tidbits on the Blue Devils and how the game might play out.

Duke starts Celeste Taylor, a 5'11" senior guard transfer from Texas, Jordyn Oliver, a 5'10" RS junior guard transfer from Baylor, Lee Volker, a 5'11" sophomore guard, Shayanne Day-Wilson, a 5'6" sophomore guard and Kennedy Brown, a 6'6" junior center transfer from Oregon.

Taylor is their leading scoere at 12 PPG and their best three point shooter. But that is not saying much. She is 5-15 on the season. That's the most makes and the most takes on the team. Brown is the big girl on this team. She has some nice post moves with either hand and a really nice baby hook. The three remaining guards are solid ball handlers and have nice assist/turnover ratios. As a team Duke takes care of the ball.

One thing UConn shouldn't have to worry about is being killed from the outside as Duke is only 14-66 on three point shots, a really bad 21.2%. But smartly, they only take 13 per game. What they do do is pass the ball crisply and get good shots. However, UConn's defense will give them big trouble.

So yes, Duke is 5-0 and have outscored their opponents by 28 points per game but is been against the 85th SOS.

Duke has nine players who are averaging more than five points per game. This could be the key for the Blue Devils, who like to press and speed up teams, which could tire out UConn come the fourth quarter. However, UConn is not one to tie. They are in fabulous condition. And UConn likes to play fast. If Duke uses a full court press, the Huskies are adept at breaking the press for easy buckets including kickouts to open three point shooters.

I expect the Blue Devils to have some sticker shock when the Huskies put their pressure defense on them and UConn will pull away for a solid 15 point win. Sorry Kara.

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Looks like Coach Dailey will make it out to Oregon for the Phil Knight tournament on Friday. She is not traveling with the team but will make her out there on her own later in the week.

I'm sure it will be a big boost to see Chris patroling the sideline for the Duke game. I know I will be happy to see my friend out there!!

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GAMES

Upsets in Red

Tuesday

No. 1 South Carolina 79 Poly Cal 36

No. 16 Creighton 93 Omaha 71

Wednesday

No. 4 Ohio State 105 Wright State 52

No. 11 Virginia Tech 73 Missouri 57

No. 17 Utah 69 Ole Miss 67

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Straight from the Dog

My friend Phil pointed this out the other day. Neither UT, Tennessee or Texas, was in SECreme's latest bracketology. Crazy, I know!!

Tennessee fans are looking at the schedule and trying to figure out how they get back in the tournament or at least back in Charlies bracketology. I'm sure SECreme will find a way.

The hope of the Orange Idiots is that they beat at least one of their tough games coming up. Certainly No. 11 Virginia Tech will be a problem and would be a big win for the Lady Vols. But the fans are banking on cleaning up in what they call the "weak SEC" this season. That may be true. However, they need to realize that this Tennessee is one of the weak ones.

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No. 16 Creighton won the battle of Nebraska Tuesday beating Omaha 93-71. This program is doing the Big East proud, undefeated at 5-0. The Blue Jays will give UConn a tough game this year. They already have two top 25 wins this season, albeit against weaker ranked teams.

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By PHIL

Deep dive into Angel Reese stats

In an otherwise excellent article, a recent USA discussion of women’s basketball praised Angel Reese noting:

Reese is averaging 23.2 points, 15.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.6 steals and 2.0 blocks through five games

The writers used terms like “jaw-dropping performances” without acknowledging the strength of schedule.

Let’s take a closer look at her stats.

2.8 assists per game is not enough to be in the top 250. Enough said.

2.6 steals per game is not shabby but it's not in the top 100. No need to adjust for strength of schedule, it's just not good enough to bother

2.0 blocks per game means she is tied for 42nd. Might be worth examining strength of schedule, but not now.

23.2 points per game places her 13th. Not bad but that's see what happens if we examine strength of schedule.

Following is the list of players with a points per game better than or equal to Angel Reese. The first entry is the player’s name, the second entry is their points per game, then the team name, then the strength of schedule, then an indicator whether they are on the Wooden Watch list (a crude proxy for players considered the best in the country). I used green text for those on the list and red text for those not on the list.

1. Morrow 31.5, DePaul 52 y

2. Washington 30, Drexel 267 n

3. Fudd 30, UConn 2 y

4. Siegrist 29, Villanova 38 y

5. Clark 26.8, Iowa 30 y

6. Latson 26.8, Florida State 80 n

7. Joens 25.5, Iowa State 61 y

8. Davis 24.2, Southern Miss 225 n

9. Jefferson 24.2, James Madison 261 n

10. Borowicz 23.5, North Dakota 164 n

11. Duvall 23.5, Northern Ky 124 n

12. San Antonio 23.2, Cal Baptist 178 n

13. Reese 23.2 LSU 355 y

Note the strength of schedule associated with players who are on the Wooden Watchlist – 2, 30, 38, 52, and 61.

Note the strength of schedule associated with players who are NOT on the Wooden Watchlist – 80, 124, 164, 178, 225, 261, 267

Not a single player on a team who strength of schedule is 80 or worse is on the watchlist except for Angel Reese.

I don’t want to the sound like I’m picking on Keishana Washington, 30 points a game is very good, but let’s examine it a little closer. Three of their opponents are ranked 202, 289, and 333. Those three opponents are tougher than LSU’s schedule. The strongest opponent, LaSalle is ranked 156. Washington scored 16 against LaSalle, which isn’t chump change, but it does suggest that her average is driven more by the strength of opponent than her innate ability.

Let’s look at Domonique Davis of Southern Mississippi. They played two triple digit teams with only one opponent, Mississippi, ranked in the top 100. Davis is averaging 24.2 points per game, but scored 10 against Mississippi.

Not a lot of data points but I suspect if you continued this, you would see a similar pattern. Players not on the watchlist who averaged 20 more points per game getting most of those against opponents like LSU’s opponents and when they play decent teams they come back to earth.

Let’s look at rebounds. Maybe Reese is a decent scorer, but her real strength is rebounding. Her average of 15.6 rebounds is worth examining. That places her second in the country behind Ellie Mitchell of Princeton. When I try to adjust rebounds per game for strength of schedule it’s not as easy to do. The real test will be when LSU plays some top 50 teams and we see if she can keep up rebounding at this rate.

Please note that my thesis is not that Angel Reese is not worthy of being on the Wooden Watchlist. It’s more that we just don’t know. The coach's scheduling decision is a disservice to Angel. Of the five stats listed, three are not notable even before considering strength of schedule. Her points per game is good as a raw number, but there are several players ahead of her with more points per game against substantially tougher competition, and those players aren’t being talked about as one of the top players in the country. The press is doing a disservice to other players by talking about her in glowing terms without acknowledging that the numbers are being put up against extremely weak competition.

Let’s see how she does again some better teams before saying she “could end up on the shortlist of Player of the Year candidates come Spring of 2023…”