Saturday, November 26, 2022

Doggy's UConn/Iowa Pregame Report

  





 

 UConn vs Iowa
Day: Sunday 
Date: November 27th, 2022
Time: 1:00  
Location: Portland, Oregon 
                                       TV: ABC                                       

 No. 3  UConn                                   No. 9  Iowa
      4-0                                                    5-1

Prior Meetings

UCONN LEADS 5-3 

H: 4-1 | A: 1-1 | N: 1-1 

12/30/83 Iowa 78, UConn 43 Coral Gables, Fla. 
11/26/89 #11 Iowa 81, UConn 49 Iowa City, Iowa 
11/29/90 #11 Iowa 58, #23 UConn 41 Storrs, Conn. 
03/17/97 #1 UConn 72, Iowa 53 Storrs, Conn. 
11/25/97 #3 UConn 65, #20 Iowa 55 Storrs, Conn. 
11/21/99 #1 UConn 73, Iowa 45 Iowa City, Iowa 
03/18/02 #1 UConn 86, Iowa 48 Storrs, Conn.
03/27/21 #1 UConn 92, Iowa 72 San Antonio, Texas

Iowa Overview
(game scores are clickable for more detail)

Iowa opened the season as No. 4 in the AP poll and well deserved. They return all 5 starters from last year's 24-8  team that lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament to Big East team Creighton. 

This year they won their first two games against Southern 87-34 and Evansville 115-62. The next two games were a struggle for the Hawkeyes. They beat in state rival Drake in overtime 92-86 and then lost their first game of the season to Kansas State 84-83. Iowa bounced back with another hard fought win, this time against Belmont 73-62. In the opening game of the Phil Knight Legacy tournament, they pulled away from Oregon State winning 73-59.

Comparative Team Statistics

                                             UConn                                        Iowa 

                                              87.5        PPG                            90.0
                                              58.5        Defensive PPG            65.6
                                              29.0        Scoring Margin            24.4
                                              51.8        Field Goal %               49.7
                                              35.7        Defensive FG%           36.7 
                                              39.5        Three Point %             33.3
                                              28.9        Defensive 3PT%          28,1
                                              76.9        Free Throw %             72.0
                                              39.9        Rebounds/game           44.6
                                              10.5        Rebounding Margin     12.4 
                                              19.3        Assists per game          19.2
                                              15.5        Turnover per game       13.0
                                                1.2        Assists/TO ratio             1.5
                                              11.5        Steals per game              7.8
                                                3.0        Blocks per game            1.8


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IOWA




Iowa Starters








Iowa Bench





 Game Analysis

Well, here we are again! I'm so looking forward to this game. I love offense and we will see plenty of it in this game. 

Two years ago in the Sweet Sixteen, these two teams met and Iowa had the exact same starting lineup only younger. You would think that the experience factor would make a big difference. Maybe it will. In that game, UConn won 92-72 in a game that was really never very close. The Huskies dominated the boards dand that was really the difference in the game. 

Let's talk about Iowa first. 

The Hawkeyes are led by their All-World Junior Caitlin Clark. What does she do? The question should be what doesn't she do.  She is in the top 5 in  the country in scoring at 26.8 PPG and in the top 10 in the country in assists at 7.2 per game. A complete offensive player. She can shoot from NBA range and often does and hits her three pointers at 35.9%. She has a fantastic handle and as you can see by her assist numbers, has great court vision. If you haven't seen her, you are in for a treat. She does have a couple of weaknesses. She sometimes tries to do too much and because of that she averages 3 turnovers per game. And her defense is just ok. 

6'3" 5th year player Monika Czinano is their big post presence, and I mean big. But don't be fooled by her build. She does a good job running the floor. What I like about her is her ability to catch the ball in the post and seal her defender off and finish with either hand. She is averaging 19.2 PPG and 7.0 RPG. Her most impresive number is her field goal percentage. She is shooting at 68.4% from the field.She seems to have a great thing going in working with Clark. She sets great screens and either Clark is using that screen to get an open shot or Czinano rols to the hoop for an easy baasket. This year she has added a mid-range shot. 
 
6'1" Senior McKenna Wornock is close to scoring double digits averaging 9.8 PPG. This makes her the third best scorer on the team.  I really like her game. She is a dangerous three point shooter making them at a 42.9% rate.  Just a really good all around player. And will be a difference maker in this game.

Gabbie Marshall, a 5'9" senior guard is struggling this season from deep after beging the best three point shooter in the team in the past percentage wise.  She takes care of the ball but doesn't have a ton of assists.  A smallish guard, she will really struggle to defend whoever she is assigned to on the Huskies. 

6' sophomore guard Kate Martin is a real emotional leader on this team. She is a great hustle player. Martin is also second on the team in assists and has a superior assists/turnover ratio. She does a great job finding both Clark for an open shot and Czinano in the post.          

If bench bench sees much more minutes than giving the starting five a blow, Iowa is in real trouble. 

Offensively, 38% of their shots are three pointers and 32% of those are taken by Clark. In other words, 3 point shots are a big part of their offense. And Clark crosses half court and can take them from any distance. Czinano is the other scorer and she works really well with Clark. They are a handful.  

Defensively, Iowa plays a mix of man to man and zone. The zone looked like a 2-1-2, however they could mix it up. The players do a lot of switching.  But realistically, they are just not a very good defensive team although better than teams in the past..

UConn is going to play their game. They will swing the ball looking for an open opportunity. The Huskies will take advantage of their mismatches. And that would be Edwards being covered by anyone on the Iowa team. She is just a nightmare for the Hawkeyes. And without Juhasz playing Czinano is as much of a difficult matchup for Edwards.

Everyone on the starting 5 for Iowa rebounds, averaging between 4-7 per player.  UConn would have a rebounding advantage if Juhasz was playing. But I still expect them to rebound and run at every opportunity. Can Iowa get back on defense quickly enough to slow them down? 

The duo of Fudd and 
Lopez-Sénéchal will be a handfull for Iowa to defend. They will have to switch on every screen in order to slow down the Huskies offense. Not an easy task.

Defensively, UConn is clearly a step above most teams. They will put Muhl or Griffen on Clark trying to deny her the ball. And no one plays help and then retreat defense like the Huskies. It will be a tough job for Edwards to cover Czinano, but Geno will have a game plan on her, maybe doubling her in the post or use Griffin's quickness to battle with her in the post. 

Final Prediction

I like Iowa. I like their players, I like how they play, I just like them. I also like them to lose this game. UConn just has too much for the Hawkeyes on both the offensive and defensive side. UConn is really meshing offensively. 

If you look at the stats I listed, the 90 point PPG is really influenced by the 115 points they put on Evansville.  Oregon State was able to hold them to 73 points. UConn should do better. 

UConn is just the better team. Muhl will find the open players in the half court against this Iowa defense. I like Fudd to bounce back with a big game after an off game offensively against Duke. And UConn's tough defense is going to frustrate the Hawkeyes.   
     
The rebounding difference won't be as dramatic as two years ago but I still like the Huskies by 12+ points. 

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