Friday, December 4, 2015

DoggyDaddy's UConn/Notre Dame Pregame Report





        UCONN vs. Notre Dame
Saturday
 December 5th, 2015
Place: Gample
Time: 5:30
TV: ESPN
 




No. 1 UConn Huskies                                     Irish of Notre Dame
5-0                                                                                                          7-0


Prior Meetings
 


UConn - Notre Dame (33-11)
H: 15-4; A: 10-4; N: 8-3
 
1/18/96 W 87-64 A
2/24/96 W 86-79 H
3/5/96 W 71-54 H
2/9/97 W 72-49 H

3/4/97 W 86-77 H

12/6/97 W 78-59 A

2/21/98 W 73-61 H
3/2/98 W 73-53 N
12/8/98 W 106-81 A
3/2/99 W 96-75 N
2/26/00 W 77-59 H
1/15/01 L 76-92 A
3/6/01 W 78-76 H
3/30/01 L 75-90 N
1/21/02 W 80-53 H
1/20/03 W 72-53 A
2/23/03 W 77-59 H
1/13/04 L 51-66 A
1/12/05 W 67-50 A
1/30/05 L 59-65 H
3/7/05 W 67-54 N
2/19/06 W 79-64 A
3/5/06 W 71-60 N
1/27/07 W 64-47 H
1/27/08 W 81-64 A
2/22/09 W 76-66 H
1/16/10 W 70-46 H
3/1/10 W 76-51 A
3/8/10 W 59-44 N
1/8/11 W 79-76 A
2/19/11 W 78-57 H
3/8/11 W 73-64 H
4/3/11 L 72-63 N
1/7/12 L 74-67 (ot) A
2/27/12 L 72-59 H
3/6/12 W 63-54 H

 
4/1/12 L 83-75 (ot) N
1/5/13 L 73-72 H
3/4/13 L 96-87 (3ot) A
3/12/13 L 61-59 H
4/7/13 W 83-65 N
4/8/13 W 79-58 N
12/6/14 W 76-58 A
4/7/15 W 63-53 N


Overview
   
UConn vs. Notre Dame. In women's college basketball, there is other no rivalry like this right now.
 
Until UConn beat Tennessee there was no rivalry, and since they don't play anymore and Pat has stepped down, the only rivalry there is between these two teams is between the fan bases.
 
The fact is, you can't have a REAL rivalry unless both teams have had success against each other.
There was a brief period of competition between UConn and Rutgers from about 2005 - 2008, but since UConn beat Rutgers for the regular-season championship in March of 2008, the Knights haven't beaten the Huskies since. So that rivalry is gone.
 
There is only one true rival right now for UConn and that is Notre Dame. Just ask Breanna Stewart who was quoted last year.  “Yes, yes we hate them,”

I loved her honesty. The players don't hate each other, but they sure to hate losing to each other. 
 
While the overall advantage is 31-11 UConn, the games have been evenly matched the last several years in head to head. At one point Notre Dame won 7 of 8 games between April of 2011 and March of 2013. But since then, things have changed again. UConn has won the last 4 games between the two teams. And it hasn't been that close with the margins being 18, 21, 18 and in last years National Championship UConn won by 10 points.      

UConn is coming off their first real competitive game of the season against DePaul. It was as close as 5 points in the fourth quarter before pulling away behind their current star Breanna Stewart and their future star Katie Lou Samuelson. DePaul pressed and trapped for most of the game, changing lineups like a hockey coach, 5 players at a time. It was very effective and forced UConn into several untypical turnovers. DePaul also used some very long range shooting to stay in the game and did so very effectively. This could be a blueprint for Notre Dame.
 
Notre Dame comes into this game off a very tough victory over No. 10 Ohio State. Notre Dame was led by 5th year senior Madison Cable who scored 25 points including the go ahead basket with just under a minute left and then made two free throws to push the lead to three with 7 seconds left on the clock.
 
Cable was always a nice complimentary player but she has made a terrific jump in performance this season. With the injuries to both post players, Turner and Reimer, Notre Dame started Hannah Huffman. In nineteen minutes she was able to grab 9 rebounds and remarkably 7 offensive rebounds. Amazing stats for the 5'9" guard. Their only true post with minutes, 6'2" Kathryn Westbeld had a nice game against Ohio State with 14 points and 6 rebounds.      
  
    

 
UConn Starters
 
11 Kia Nurse
6' Sophomore Guard
 
  As I update the stats after each game, I can see trends. Against Nurse had more points, rebounds, assists and blocks than her average for the season. Can't ask for more than that. 
 
2015-16 Stats
   5 Games - MPG 26.2, FG% .444, 3PT% .333, PPG 9.2, RPG 2.8, APG 3.0, 8 steals, 1 block

4 Moriah Jefferson
5'7" Senior Guard
 
 Jefferson had a tough game at times against DePaul. A little shaky against the intense DePaul pressure. But she certainly had some great moments in the game and ended up with nine points, nine assists and four steals. I'm sure her focus will be sharp against a tough ND defense.   
 
2015-16 Stats
  5 Games - MPG 30.4, FG% .690, 3PT% .333, PPG 13.2, RPG 2.4, APG 5.8, 14 steals, 0 blocks

3 Morgan Tuck
6'2" RS Junior Forward

Other than missing a few bunnies that she usually makes, Morgan had a great game against DePaul in a homecoming event for her. I'm sure a little nervousness came into play, with so many family members and friends in attendance. I'm still waiting for her to start making shots at a high percentage and the Notre Dame game would be a great place to start.
 
2015-16 Stats
   5 Games - MPG 30.2, FG% .443, 3PT% .308, PPG 13.0, RPG 6.8, APG 3.0, 4 steals, 1 block
 
30 Breanna Stewart 
6'4" Senior Forward

 Superstahhhhhhh........Superstahhhhhh....

What can you say about 29 points and 12 rebounds in 40 minutes? She just looks different this season. How she carries herself is a big part of it. So confident in her play. I expect more of the same against Notre Dame. Playing in the cozy confines of Gample, it's a game she will want to excel.
 
 
5 Games - MPG 30.4, FG% .612, 3PT% .444, PPG 23.4 RPG 8.6, APG 3.4, 8 steals, 15 blocks
 
 
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Sophomore Forward
 
As good as she has been playing, we all have to remember she is still only 5 games into her sophomore season. She definitely let the intense DePaul defense get to her occasionally during the game. She will only learn from this. But she had some shining moments and did nothing to change my perception that she is a star in the making and will make life miserable for the Notre Dame players.   
 
2015-16 Stats
  5 Games - MPG 20.4, FG% .622, 3PT% .000, PPG 10.0 RPG 9.6, APG 1.8, 11 steals, 5 blocks

 

UConn Bench
 
 
51 Natalie Butler
6'5" RS Sophomore Center

Geno is not seeing what he needs to see to play Butler. I think the matchup was not good for her in this kind of fast paced game. Certainly for her first time out. I don't expect her to play against Notre Dame for the same reason.   
 
12 Saniya Chong
5'8" Junior Guard
 
I thought that in spite of pretty blah stats, she was excellent in the DePaul game. Only one turnover, she looked like the experienced junior that she is. With Notre Dame more than likely going pretty small with their lineup, she should see some good minutes. I love that she is shooting 40% on threes. UConn needs that from her. 
 
2015-16 Stats
   5 Games - MPG 14.6, FG% .438, 3PT% .400, PPG 4.4, RPG 1.6, APG .6, 0 steals, 1 blocks
 
 
22 Courtney Ekmark
6' Sophomore Guard

She didn't play against DePaul. It tells me something about Geno's confidence in fast paced games like the DePaul game. She will see plenty of time in the more comfortable games and have a chance to show Geno she is ready for tougher sports.
 
2015-16 Stats
4 Games - MPG 10.0, FG% .600, 3PT% .500, PPG 2.0, RPG 1.0, APG 1.3, 1 steal, 1 block


33 Katie Lou Samuelson
6'3" Freshman Guard/Forward

What a great 4th quarter for Lou against DePaul. She is playing better and better. I'm looking for another great effort against Notre Dame. Her size is making a difference. She showed she can help break the press and UConn might see that against Notre Dame. She will be ready.

2015-16 Stats
   5 Games - MPG 17.6, FG% .412, 3PT% .273, PPG 7.2, RPG 2.8, APG 2.0, 4 steals, 0 blocks 
 
 
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1 Freshman Forward/Guard

Not her best game, but she played solid defense against DePaul. The pace seems to confuse her at times. A good learning game. 
 
2015-16 Stats
   5 Games - MPG 18.6, FG% .565, 3PT% .000, PPG 7.0, RPG 6.2, APG 0.8, 11 steals, 3 blocks
20 Tierney Lawlor
5'7" Junior Guard

No action in the last game. Hopefully she will get a few minutes against Notre Dame.

2015-16 Stats
   4 Games - MPG 2.8, FG% 1.000, 3PT% 1.000, PPG 1.3, RPG 0.3, APG 0.3, 0 steals, 0 blocks

22 Briana Pulido 
5'7" Senior Guard

She will be back on the bench against Notre Dame. Hopefully leading several high five for three point makes!!

2015-16 Stats
   3 Games - MPG 2.3, FG% .000, 3PT% .000, PPG 0.0, RPG 0.0, APG 0.3, 0 steals, 0 blocks

Out for the game

35 De'Janae Boykin
6'2" Freshman Forward

UConn freshman forward De’Janae Boykin is still not ready. She didn't make the road trip.


*******************************************************************
Notre Dame Fighting Irish


 
Notre Dame Coach
Muffet McGraw
  
McGraw is considered by many the 2nd best active coach in WCBB. It's hard to argue that based on the accomplishments of her program. She is a terrific recruiter, a fine tactician and a wonderful motivator of young women. Notre Dame certainly knows that and in July 2012, she signed a landmark 10-year contract extension that will keep her coaching at Notre Dame through the 2021-22 campaign.

The past 20 seasons (1995-96 to the present) have been the most successful in Notre Dame's history. Here are some highlights:

  • 540-141 (.793) record
  • 263-65 (.802) regular-season mark in conference play
  • Second-best winning percentage (232-64, .784) in BE history behind some other team.
  •  Averaged 27 victories per year
  • Four 35-win seasons
  • Seven 30-win campaigns
  • Twelve 25-win seasons
  • One NCAA national championship (2001)
  • Five NCAA title game appearances (2001, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015)
  • Seven NCAA Women's Final Four berths (1997, 2001, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015) 
  • Thirteen Sweet 16 showings since the 1995-96 season
  • 20 consecutive NCAA Championship appearances
Notre Dame Starters

30 Lindsay Allen
5'8" Junior Guard

Allen received some nice honors last year. She as an Associated Press Honorable Mention All-America,  Full Court Press Honorable Mention All-America, Nancy Lieberman Award Finalist.

She had a great tournament as well earing the  NCAA Oklahoma City Regional Most Outstanding Player and making the NCAA Oklahoma City Regional All-Tournament Team.

Allen ranks fourth in school history with .835 career free-throw percentage. She is seventh in program history for highest career assist average (4.6 apg.), ninth in Irish history for career minutes average (28.9 mpg.), second and fourth on school's single-season assist/turnover ratio list (2.24 in 2013-14; 2.14 in 2014-15) and is tied for sixth on Notre Dame single-season assist chart (205 in 2014-15).

2015-16 Stats
 6 games - MPG 24.3, FG% .366, 3PT% .429, PPG 7.0, RPG 3.3, APG 5.5, 11 steals, 1 block
 
 
23 Michaela Mabrey
5'10" Senior Guard 
 
Mabrey is in second year as team captain. Her experience at Notre Dame will be beneficial to younger Irish players, particularly her sister, Marina.

She ranks fifth in school history for career three-point field goals made (164) and three-point percentage (.394), as well as eighth in career three-point field goals attempts (416). Mabrey is one of only two Fighting Irish players (along with Alicia Ratay) to make 70 three-pointers in multiple seasons, ranking third and fifth on the Notre Dame single-season three-point field goals chart (75 in 2014-15; 72 in 2013-14). She is third and sixth on school single-season three-point attempts list (186 in 2014-15; 171 in 2013-14) and ranks ninth on program's single-season three-point percentage rundown (.421 in 2013-14).
  
2015-16 Stats
6 games - MPG 22.0, FG% .452, 3PT% .360, PPG 6.5, RPG 2.0, APG 2.5, 5 steals, 3 blocks
 
 
 
22 Madison Cable
 5'10" Senior Guard

Cable was approved for a fifth year of eligibility by Notre Dame's Faculty Board on Athletics in April 2015 after missing her freshman season (2011-12) with stress fractures in both feet. She has always been the "sixth women" and has done well in that role for Notre Dame. This year she is starting and leading the team in scoring. She is tough in the paint fighting in the paint against bigger players for rebounds.
 
Cable ranks second in school history with .444 career three-point field-goal percentage (Alicia Ratay shot NCAA-record .476 from 1999-2003) and ranks third on Irish single-season three-point percentage chart (.476 in 2014-15).
 
   
2015-16 Stats
6 games - MPG 27.7, FG% .627, 3PT% .583, PPG 15.0, RPG 4.7, APG 2.3, 7 steals, 3 blocks
 
 
33 Kathryn Westbeld
6'2" Sophomore Forward 
 
I've always been a big fan of Westbeld. She played in all 39 games, tying Natalie Achonwa's 2010-11 school record for games played by a freshman and averaged 6.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game with .526 field-goal percentage.

Westbeld was a 2014 McDonald's High School All-America selection. She was a 2013 MaxPreps third-team All-America pick. Westbeld was also ranked No. 16 in Class of 2014 by Blue Star Basketball and ranked No. 21 (five-star player) by espnW Hoopgurlz, All-Star Girls Report and Collegiate Girls Basketball Report.

 2015-16 Stats
6 games - MPG 23.3, FG% .580, 3PT% .000, PPG 12.2, RPG 5.2, APG 1.7, 5 steals, 2 blocks
 
 
12 Taya Reimer
6'4" Junior Forward 
 
She is suffering from an Achilles injury and might not play against UConn. While an effective post player, she hasn't always had success against UConn. She doesn't match up well with either Tuck or Stewart, especially now that she isn't 100%.
 
Her stats for the year show how tough it's been for her with her injury.  
 
I have her in the starting lineup, but I wouldn't be surprised if she doesn't play at all or comes off the bench. It's a game time decision. 
 
2015-16 Stats
4 games - MPG 19.3, FG% .391, 3PT% .000, PPG 6.3, RPG 3.3, APG 1.0, 4 steals, 4 blocks
 
Notre Dame Bench
 
 
3 Marina Mabrey
 5'11" Freshman  Guard
    
Marina was a 2015 McDonald's High School All-America selection,  2015 Parade All-America selection, 2015 MaxPreps All-America First Team pick, 2015 USA Today All-USA Second Team choice, 2015 Naismith Trophy second-team All-American, 2015 Women's Basketball Coaches Association (WBCA) honorable mention All-American, 2015 Gatorade New Jersey High School Player of the Year.
 
Mabrey was ranked No. 7 in Class of 2015 by Prospects Nation, No. 8 by Blue Star Basketball, No. 11 by All-Star Girls Report and No. 26 (five-star player) by espnW Hoopgurlz.
 
She earned a gold medal as a member of the 2014 USA Basketball Under-18 National Team at the FIBA Americas U18 Championship in Colorado Springs, Colorado, helped 2014 USA U18 squad to a 5-0 record at the FIBA Americas U18 Championship.
 
2015-16 Stats
6 games - MPG 22.0, FG% .452, 3PT% .360, PPG 6.5, RPG 2.0, APG 2.5, 25 steals, 1 block
 
2 Arike Ogunbowale
 5'8" Freshman Guard    
 
Ogunbowale was a 2015 McDonald's High School All-America selection and just the third Wisconsin native ever to earn McDonald's All-America status. She was a finalist for 2015 Morgan Wootten Award, a 2015 Parade All-American, a 2015 USA Today All-USA Second Team choice. She was also a 2015 Naismith Trophy second-team All-American and a 2015 Women's Basketball Coaches Association (WBCA) All-American.
 
Arike was ranked No. 4 in Class of 2015 by All-Star Girls Report, No. 5 by Prospects Nation, No. 6 by Blue Star Basketball and ranked No. 10 (five-star player) by espnW Hoopgurlz.
 
She is a Five-time USA Basketball medalist (four gold, one silver).
 
2015-16 Stats
6 games - MPG 19.8, FG% .389, 3PT% .200, PPG 9.7, RPG 4.0, APG 1.7, 5 steals, 0 blocks
 
 
14 Mychal Johnson
 5'7" Freshman  Guard
    
Johnson didn't get much playing time in her freshman season and it appears that hasn't changed much. I always look at the minutes in competitive games. She played 15 minutes in the close SDSU game but only 8 minutes in the UCLA OT game. I think she is still at the bottom of the guard rotation along with Hannah Huffman.
  
Johnson was ranked No. 17 in Class of 2014 by Blue Star Basketball, No. 36 by Prospects Nation,  No. 45 by Peach State Basketball/JumpOffPlus, No. 50 by All-Star Girls Report and No. 80 (four-star player) by espnW Hoopgurlz.  
 
2015-16 Stats
6 games - MPG 15.8, FG% .364, 3PT% .500, PPG 3.5, RPG 1.5, APG 1.2, 5 steals, 1 block
 
 
24 Hannah Huffman
 5'9" Senior Guard
 
Huffman was one of Notre Dame's most improved players last season and developed into a reliable member of Irish second unit. She started in their most recent game against Ohio State and was a terror on the boards grabbing 9 rebounds, 7 of them offensive.   
 
Huffman was ranked 27th by All-Star Girls Report, 52nd by ESPN Hoopgurlz, 63rd by Blue Star Basketball and 91st by Collegiate Girls Basketball Report.  
 
2015-16 Stats
6 games - MPG 11.7, FG% .500, 3PT% .000, PPG 1.5, RPG 3.0, APG 1.5, 5 steals, 1 block


21 Kristina Nelson
 6'4" Junior Forward/Center    
 
Nelson did not play while recovering from shoulder surgery during summer of 2014.
 
She was ranked No. 39 by ESPN Hoopgurlz ... ranked No. 44 by Blue Star Basketball ... ranked No. 48 by All-Star Girls Report.
 
2015-16 Stats
5 games - MPG 9.6, FG% .579, 3PT% .000, PPG 5.2, RPG 2.4, APG 0.2, 0 steals, 0 blocks


35 Diamond Thompson
 6'5" Junior Forward/Center    
 
Thompson was ranked No. 73 in Class of 2013 by Blue Star Basketball, No. 85 by Collegiate Girls Basketball Report, ranked No. 97 by All-Star Girls Report, ranked as 10th-best center in Class of 2013 by ESPN Hoopgurlz. 
 
2015-16 Stats
5 games - MPG 5.2, FG% 1.000, 3PT% .000, PPG 2.4, RPG 1.8, APG 0.0, 0 steals, 2 blocks

 
 Game Analysis
 
While it would be a lot more exciting if Notre Dame was at full strength, it is what it is, and my analysis will be based on who will be playing, not who could have been playing. However, how good would Notre Dame be with a starting lineup of Jewel Loyd, Lindsay Allen, Taya Reimer, Kathryn Westbeld and Brianna Turner? Wow. I believe they could give UConn a real run for their money. Sadly, that is not the case. So on we go with reality.
 
Taya Reimer is a bit of a wild card here. Can she play? And can she be effective against UConn's frontcourt? I think there is a better chance that she plays. But I also think she won't be very effective while she is out there. The game will be at a very quick pace. Certainly UConn will want it quick but controlled. I don't believe Reimer can handle that.
 
Offensively, Notre Dame will play their usual motion offense no matter who is in the lineup. They set tough off the ball screens, trying to get their shooters open. With the lack of a post presence, Notre Dame is going to be using every tactic they can to free outside shooters. And with the two Mabrey's, Allen and Cable, they have very capable long range shooters. To keep this game close, they will have to hit these at a high percentage.
 
Defensively, Notre Dame has some big problems. Without Turner and Reimer to protect the basket, the Irish will be forced to play a lot of zone. I'm sure they will use a lot of trapping defenses at well. They had to have seen how successful DePaul was for much of their game with UConn. When they do play man, look for a rematch of Stewart/Huffman from last years NC game. If you remember, Huffman did a decent job denying Stewart the ball and an overall tough defensive effort by Huffman. I'm sure Stewart remembers.
 
UConn will do what they do best offensively. They will run their, looking for post entry passes to Stewart, Tuck and Williams. If ND packs the paint, UConn will be forced to hit some threes to loosen up the zone and make Notre Dame pay for their double teaming in the post. UConn does have several deep threats with every starter but Williams able to make threes. And Samuelson off the bench could help with that. UConn will also use their defense to spark their offense. I don't think this is the quickest Notre Dame team I've seen so expect UConn to run run and then run some more. 
 
Defensively, look for UConn to really pressure Notre Dame. Not necessarily to turn over the Irish, but more to take time off the clock forcing Notre Dame into bad shots. With not much of a post presence for Notre Dame, UConn will be able to do a better job covering the perimeter pushing the Irish further and further out, chaning 22 foot three pointers into 25 foot three pointers. The Huskies did that successfully in the second half against DePaul. Stewart will be free to freelance in the paint, making life miserable for the Notre Dame players that try to drive to the basket. I wouldn't be surprised to see a high number of blocks for Stewart.
 
In the past I have done player to player matchups for the UConn ND game. This one would be no contest when Notre Dame plays man-to-man defense.
 
The only close matchup is at point guard. Jefferson vs. Allen has always been a great matchup between to of the best point guards in the country. This year Allen's play has not been up to her play of the past. She took a more aggressive approach to her game against Ohio State, taking more shots (16) and just overall in her play. But that had a negative side as well with eight turnovers. Jefferson has had some tough games against ND and I'm sure she remembers that. I expect her to have the advantage in this matchup.
 
The rest of the matchups are all UConn.
 
They won't always matchup this way, but Nurse vs Michaela Mabrey is all Nurse. Nurse is too
quick and strong for Mabrey. And Mabrey can't handle Nurse on the perimeter. Kia will take the ball hard to the basket and Mabrey won't be able stop her. 
 
I think you will see Williams putting her best defensive effort on Cable, who will take a ton of shots for the Irish. I don't think Cable can handle Williams in the post so look for Gabby to take Cable down low.                           
 
The other two starting matchups could change if Reimer is playing. If she is, I would expect her to cover Tuck. If not, look for Westbeld to cover Tuck and Huffman to cover Stewart. Both of these matchups are not good for Notre Dame. Tuck is too strong in the paint for Westbeld and too quick on the perimeter for Reimer to cover. Stewart is Stewart. I'm hoping to see her play against Huffman.
 
I will add that Marina Mabrey and Arke Ogunbale are two terrific freshman and will see plenty of time in this game. You never know how a talented freshman will play in this kind of environment. If they can add some offense to the game for Notre Dame, the game could be closer than I think it will be.    
  
Final Prediction
 
This game is usually tough for me to call. There is usually enough comparable talent on the teams to make the game somewhat competitive. Sadly, this game won't be like that. I'm sure that McGraw will have some tricks up her sleeve for UConn. But I just don't see how that will make a difference in this game.
 
At home, first campus game, national audience, possible whiteout game (fans have been asked to wear white).  All indications points to a big win by UConn.
 
UConn runs Notre Dame into the ground. UConn by 30+.              

1 comment: