Thursday, February 4, 2021

Doggy's UConn at Marquette Pregame Report

 










 







 UConn vs Marquette
Day: Friday 
Date: February 5th, 2021
Time: 7:00  
Location: Milwaukee, Wis 
                                                    TV: SNY                                       


No. 3 UConn Huskies                              Marquette Golden Eagles 
            12-1 (10-0)                                                     12-2 (9-1)


Prior Meetings

MARQUETTE | UCONN LEADS 9-0 H: 4-0 | A: 5-0 | N: 0-0 

02/25/06 #8 UConn 74, Marquette 59 Storrs, Conn. 
02/03/07 #3 UConn 52, Marquette 48 Milwaukee, Wis. 
02/20/08 #1 UConn 95, Marquette 63 Hartford, Conn. 
02/07/09 #1 UConn 83, Marquette 49 Milwaukee, Wis. 
01/13/10 #1 UConn 68, Marquette 43 Milwaukee, Wis. 
12/09/10 #1 UConn 79, Marquette 47 Storrs, Conn. 
02/25/12 #4 UConn 85, Marquette 45 Milwaukee, Wis. 
01/12/13 #3 UConn 85, Marquette 51 Milwaukee, Wis. 
02/05/13 #3 UConn 94, Marquette 37 Storrs, Conn.

Marquette Overview
(game scores are clickable for more detail)

Marquette is having a very good season. Although their schedule is not very strong, they have met most challenges and are now in second place all alone. Fortunately for them, they haven't played DePaul as of yet and UConn beat DePaul twice.

The Golden Eagles of lost twice this season, the first game was to state rival Milwaukee, where they surprisingly lost at home 64-55. This was their second game of the season. The other loss is a conference game against Seton Hall on the road 77-66

Ok, maybe I was kind when I said their schedule is not strong. It's just very weak. According to RealtimeRPI they have played only three teams with an RPI under 100. Their season RPI is 168. Really terrible. 

Let's just look at comparable games.      

St. John's - Marquette won twice 66-62 and 72-61. UConn won 94-62.
Xavier - Marquette won 69-56. UConn won 106-59.
Seton Hall - Marquette lost 77-66. UConn won 92-65. 
Georgetown - Marquette won 72-40 and 55-48. UConn won 72-41.
Butler - Marquette won 95-57. UConn won 103-35.
Villanova - Marquette won 95-77. UConn won 90-52.
Creighton - Marquette won 66-53. UConn won 80-47.

What does this tell us? More in the Analysis section.  

Comparative Team Statistics
Leader in bold

                                             UConn                                   Marquette 

                                              87.1        PPG                             74.3
                                              54.2        Defensive PPG            60.9
                                              32.9        Scoring Margin            13.4
                                              53.0        Field Goal %               47.6
                                              33.5        Defensive FG%           38.2 
                                              36.9        Three Point %             33.8
                                              28.4        Defensive 3PT%         29,6
                                              70.0        Free Throw %             68.9
                                              41.8        Rebounds/game           40.7
                                              11.8        Rebounding Margin     10.4 
                                              22.3        Assists per game           20.5
                                              14.4        Turnover per game       15.6
                                                1.6        Assists/TO ratio             1.3
                                                9.8        Steals per game              7.3
                                                5.7        Blocks per game            3.3



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MARQUETTE




Marquette Starters






Marquette Bench





 Game Analysis

I had some time, so I watched the highlight video of the the 54-48 win over Georgetown, and the 72-61 win over St. John's. It gave me a taste of how Marquette plays and who does what for them. That and the stats paint me a picture of what to expect in this game.

Marquette is led by senior guard Selena Lott who scores at a 16.1 clip. She is clearly the best shooter on the team. Lott hit's 42% of her three pointers and she takes around 4 per game. Lott also get's to the line more than anyone else in Marquette. She has taken exactly the same amount of free throws as she does three pointers. And she hits 88% of her free throws. Just a really good shooter. Lott also leads the team in assists at 4.6 per game. However she had a nightmare game against Georgeotown in their last outing. 0-11 from the field, 0-6 on threes.  

Marquette's best big is No. 42 Lauren Van Kleunen. She is only 6'2" but is a wide shouldered young lady who knows how to use her body to carve out space in the post. She will take the intermediate jumper but of she gets the ball in the low post she knows how to finish. Her go to move is a little jump hook. Tough to stop. She averages 11.9 PPG. 

Cameryn Taylosr is a a 6'2" forward who will physically remind you of Swin Cash. Certainly not as talented but to me her gait as she runs is so similar. She really runs the court well and is a good rebounder, using her jumping ability to grab rebounds out of her area.   

Jordan King is the other guard in the starting lineup. She is second on the team in assists but is not an offensive threat. Her shooting percentage across the board are really weak. 37.5, 20.8, 56.1. Yet she still takes 10 shots per game. She did have a very good game against Georgetown going 8-15 from the field for 17 points. 

The final starter is 6'1" junior Chloe Marotta. A solid shooter, she doesn't take many out of her range, which is right around the basket. She is a pretty good defender as well. And she is the second best rebounder on the team. 

The bench give Marquette some solid minutes, but none of the three players that get minutes are going to come in and change the trajectory of the game. I would expect the starters to get more than their average minutes in this one.     

Marquette averages over 40 rebounds per game but it is split evenly between all 5 starters with no player over 6.6 RPG. They average only around 3.3 blocks per game so they will have a tough time stopping UConn at the rim.   

Defensively, they Golden Eagles play exclusively a man to man. That could be a disaster if they don't do a good job switching off the screens. They Huskies are getting better and better at that. 

UConn will try to uptempo this game. They will run on almost every defensive rebound. And they have the hourses to do that. They seem to run even more with Nika Muhl in the lineup. 

I'm sure they will try to get the ball into the post to Nelson-Ododa. Can their center use her body to push her out of the block? Will they double team when the ball goes in to her? I'm not sure. If they don't look for Olivia to have a big game. 

Marquette hasn't seen a defense as good as UConn's. They are coming off a bad, I mean really bad offensive game against Georgetown. This game has the potential to get ugly.    
 
Final Prediction

It's an interesting game. The first question is about who is available to play. How is Williams ankle? And how is Griffin's knee? It didn't seem either injury was serious, but with only two days between games, how quickly can they recover is the question. 

The other factor is the upcoming game against South Carolina. It's only human nature to look ahead to that game. I know I am. And will Geno hold back the two injured players to make sure they are available for that Big Monday game? 

Knowing Geno and the two players, they will play if they are up to it. Geno always looks at conference games as more important even when the non-conference game is for a better seeding. 

The talent difference is big and with the freshmen getting more playing time and doing so well, UConn is as deep a team as I can remember. 

Off the top of my head, I'd say UConn by 15+. Marquette is at home and will play inspired basketball. If I use the comparative team calculations, that shows 13+. Massey says 17 points.

I think my 15+ is a good guess.     

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