Saturday, February 6, 2021

Doggy's UConn vs South Carolina Pregame Report





                                                                                                                 



 


 UConn vs South Carolina
Day: Monday 
Date: February 8th, 2021
Time: 7:00  
Location: Storrs, Ct. 
                                                    TV: FS1                                       


No. 3 UConn Huskies                              South Carolina Gamecocks 
            12-1 (10-0)                                                         15-1 


Prior Meetings

SOUTH CAROLINA | UCONN LEADS 8-1 H: 4-0 | A: 3-1 | N: 1-0 

12/17/07 #2 UConn 97, USC 39 Storrs, Conn. 
12/28/08 #1 UConn 77, USC 48 Columbia, S.C. 
02/09/15 #2 UConn 87, #1 USC 62 Storrs, Conn. 
02/08/16 #1 UConn 66, #2 USC 54 Columbia, S.C. 
02/13/17 #1 UConn 66, #6 USC 55 Storrs, Conn. 
02/01/18 #1 UConn 83, #7 USC 58 Columbia, S.C. 
03/26/18 #1 UConn 94, #7 USC 65 Albany, N.Y. 
02/11/19 #4 UConn 97, #11 USC 79 Hartford, Conn. 
02/10/20 #1 USC 70, #5 UConn 52 Columbia, S.C



Two points. TWO points. Maybe the worst first quarter in UConn history. Jut a reminder of how that quarter went, here is UConn's play by play. It's pretty ugly so be prepared.

09:48 MISS JUMPER by WILLIAMS,CHRISTYN
09:10 MISS JUMPER by MAKURAT,ANNA
08:43 MISS JUMPER by WILLIAMS,CHRISTYN
08:41 MISS JUMPER by NELSON-ODODA,OLIVIA
08:13 TURNOVER by MAKURAT,ANNA
07:54 TURNOVER by NELSON-ODODA,OLIVIA
07:22 MISS JUMPER by WALKER,MEGAN
06:39 TURNOVER by MAKURAT,ANNA
06:09 GOOD LAYUP by WALKER,MEGAN(fastbreak)(in the paint)
05:35 MISS JUMPER by NELSON-ODODA,OLIVIA
05:19 MISS LAYUP by WILLIAMS,CHRISTYN
04:45 MISS 3PTR by DANGERFIELD,CRYSTAL
04:41 MISS JUMPER by NELSON-ODODA,OLIVIA
04:05 MISS LAYUP by WALKER,MEGAN
03:43 MISS 3PTR by WILLIAMS,CHRISTYN
02:50 MISS 3PTR by MAKURAT,ANNA
02:20 MISS JUMPER by DANGERFIELD,CRYSTAL
02:17 MISS FT by NELSON-ODODA,OLIVIA
02:17 MISS FT by NELSON-ODODA,OLIVIA
01:57 TURNOVER by DANGERFIELD,CRYSTAL
01:38 MISS JUMPER by WILLIAMS,CHRISTYN
01:30 TURNOVER by WALKER,MEGAN
00:33 MISS 3PTR by WALKER,MEGAN

That's 1-13 from the field, 5 turnovers, 0-2 on free throws. UConn has had some slow starts this season, but NOTHING like this one. 

Ok, on to this game. It will nothing like the last year's game.  

South Carolina Overview

(game scores are clickable for more detail)

So many games and so much to say about them. But I'm only going to focus on a few in this overview.

South Carolina comes into this game with a 15-1 record and with the Louisville loss the other day, they will probably be No. 1 in the next poll before the game against UConn. In their most recent outing, they beat Auburn 77-58 in a game where they put the breaks on in the second half and rested all their starters in the fourth quarter in preparation for the Huskies. 

The Gamecocks' only loss is a 54-46 contest with who I believe should be No. 1, North Carolina State.  Hard to believe these two teams are both vying for a championship based on shooting percentages in this game. North Carolina State  was 29.4% from the field and 4-17 on threes. They won this game because South Carolina was equally inept, shooting 27.7% from the field and 2-12 on threes. Can I give a retroactive UGGY award?

The Gamecocks have played 6 other ranked teams beating them all. They defeated Gonzaga 79-72, Iowa State 83-65, Kentucky 75-70, Arkansas 104-82, Georgia 62-50 and Mississippi State 75-52. They also had a close call against LSU winning 69-65.

Comparative Team Statistics
Leader in bold

                                             UConn                                   South Carolina 

                                              87.1        PPG                                 82.4
                                              54.4        Defensive PPG                58.9
                                              32.7        Scoring Margin                23.4
                                              53.3        Field Goal %                   46.1
                                              34.1        Defensive FG%              35.5 
                                              37.4        Three Point %                35.2
                                              28.1        Defensive 3PT%            26,2
                                              70.0        Free Throw %                65.3
                                              41.1        Rebounds/game             50.3
                                              11.0        Rebounding Margin        17.7 
                                              22.6        Assists per game            14.9
                                              14.4        Turnover per game         13.9
                                                1.6        Assists/TO ratio               1.1
                                                9.7        Steals per game               7.6
                                                5.7        Blocks per game              7.4


*******************************************************************

SOUTH CAROLINA 


South Carolina Starters






South Carolina Bench





 Game Analysis

I will mention last year's game one more time as it's still pertinent information. If you look at the box score, it was a very not-uconn-like performance. They only shot 43% from the field, 23% on threes, with 15 turnovers and 12 assists. They did play better after that horrible first quarter, but it was a game where the Huskies looked a little intimidated and for sure you don't see that often. 

UConn lost two players to graduation that dominated the stats for the Huskies last season, Megan Walker (10 points 8 rebounds) and Crystal Dangerfield (25 points, 9-18 shooting). Olivia Nelson-Ododa added 10 points and 9 rebounds. 

South Carolina lost two players as well to graduation in Tyasha Harris (19 points 10 assists) and Mikiah Herbert-Harrigan (10 points 7 rebounds). Aliyah Boston added 13 points and 12 rebounds and Zia Cooke added 15 points. 

So, the losses to graduation are pretty equal, but there is a big difference coming in to this. UConn added some serious talent to replace the two starters lost while South Carolina moved two bench players in to the starting lineup to replace the two starters lost. 

In other words, this game will be totally different than last season's game.     
 
Zia Cooke, a 5'9" junior guard is now the leading scorer at 16.1 PPG. And she is hitting her three pointers at a 42.4% clip. 

One of the players that moved into the starting lineup is Destanni Henderson, the 5'7" junior guard. As quick as anyone else UConn has player, she leads her team in assists at 6 per game and scores in double figures at 11.7 and shoots 39% on threes. 

6'5" sophomore Aliyah Boston is still the big dominant post who averages a double double with 13.7 PPG and 11.3 RPG. She does a great job protecting the rim, blocking almost 3 shots per game.   

Brea Beal, a 6'1" sophomore guard is the third returning starter. Known more for her defense , she is scoring better this season, shooting 38.7 on threes and scoring almost 9 PPG.

Victaria Sexton is a 6'2" forward and has moved into the starting lineup this season. She has improved her scoring to double digits at 10.3 PPG. She shoots 60% from the field, most of her points coming from close range. 

I believe only two players will get many minutes off the bench and they bring in some size. 

6'2" senior LeLe Grissett is listed as a guard, but I don't see her really playing like one. No outside shot to speak of, she has more offensive rebounds than defensive rebounds and that is where she does her work. Down low.

6'4" sophomore Laeticia Amihere has not really fulfilled her potential yet. A very athletic big, she just struggles to make baskets. 

When South Carolina has the ball they will pass the ball around the perimeter looking for an opening. Boston plants herself down low and if she doesn't get the ball she comes out to the high post and either turns to look for a shot or finds an open shooter on the perimeter. The two guards, Cooke and Henderson look to either take a jumper or drive to the hoop. They are very proficient at both.    

On defense, the Gamecocks mostly play a man to man, but I noticed that Boston likes to leave her player and follow the ball as if she is in a zone. She will jump out to the perimeter on the ball handler and then swing back to the post area. She can be very disruptive. South Carolina puts some pressure on the ball but does not do a lot of double teaming. They mostly prevent scoring by guarding the post well with Boston. She is really a one player zone. 

UConn has been playing really well on offense. They seem to be in total sync with each other. The pick and roll has become a huge part of their offense mostly initiated by Bueckers and Nelson-Ododa. And if Boston leaves Olivia to help on Bueckers, you can be sure she will find the open player. 

Defensively, UConn will give Nelson-Ododa every opportunity to handle Boston on her own. They pretty much played to a standstill last year. The Huskies have struggled with quicker guards like Henderson and even Cooke but lately the switching defense has been much improved. The Gamecocks will be a tough test for UConn in that regard. If they don't get back on their player after the switch, South Carolina will get plenty of open looks. 

So, who will defend who for both teams?

Boston vs Nelson-Ododa is an easy call. This will be a big factor in the final score.

Not that I am a Gamecock expert but South Carolina will probably put their best defender on Bueckers and that is Beal. A big guard with quick hands. 

A lot depends on who is in the game. I have no idea who Geno will start.  I'm going to to with Muhl, although that gives UConn a height disadvantage with Saxton guarding on Westbrook. That is a big advantage for UConn as she can take Saxton off the dribble. Then that means that Henderson will cover Muhl and Cooke on Williams. UConn has the size and strenght advantage there. 

Conversely, UConn will have trouble with the speed of Henderson and Cooke when they have the ball. I'm not sure Muhl and Williams can stay with them. And South Carolina will post up Saxton when Westbrook is guarding her. 

I like the match ups when Edwards comes in. She can handle Saxton in the post and maybe even guard Boston some and let Nelson-Ododa float a little more to help out on defense. 

If Griffin is healthy she is a wild card. Her offensive rebounding could come into play and her defense on Saxton or Beal will be helpful.
          
Ok...enough of the analysis. 

 
Final Prediction

Last year was a horror show. This year? I would say not so much.

UConn is such a different team. They pass so much better which leads to better shots and a higher percentage made. Can they do this against a pretty good South Carolina defense? We shall see. I do believe they will.

I don't believe that this is a better South Carolina team. Losing Harris and Herbert-Harrigan is big and I don't believe they made up for it. Yes, Cooke and Henderson are better than last year as is Beal and Saxton. But not enought to cover for their losses to graduation of two Top Ten WNBA draft picks. 

On the UConn side, I understand that they lost two WNBA draft picks as well, but Westbrook is a great exchange for Walker. Different players, but Westbrook brings a better mental attitude. And add the best freshman in the country and possible one of the Top 5 players in WCBB in Bueckers and you have a better team. Also include two more great freshman in Muhl and Edwards and you make them even better.

It's really hard for me to see UConn losing this game. Of course they can, but they are playing at home for one. And they have great confidence coming in. 

I'm going to go with UConn by 6+. And I'm hoping for lots of +.

1 comment:

  1. Paige has turned da page.... her bones are saying 36 points.

    ReplyDelete