Doggy's UConn/Notre Dame Pregame Report











        UCONN vs Notre Dame

Date: Sunday 

 December 2nd, 2018

Place: Purcell Pavilion
South Bend, Indiana

Time: 4:00

TV: ESPN2

No. 2/2 UConn Huskies                                   No. 1/1 Notre Dame

6-0                                                                                                         7-0

Prior Meetings

NOTRE DAME | UCONN LEADS 36-12
H: 20-4 | A: 11-4 | N: 5-4

 01/18/96 #3 UConn 87, ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
02/24/96 #3 UConn 86, ND 79 Storrs, Conn. 
03/05/96 #2 UConn 71, ND 54 Storrs, Conn. 
02/09/97 #1 UConn 72, ND 49 Storrs, Conn. 
03/04/97 #1 UConn 86, ND77 Storrs, Conn. 
12/06/97 #3 UConn 78, ND 59 South Bend, Ind. 
02/21/98 #2 UConn 73, ND 61 Storrs, Conn. 
03/02/98 #3 UConn 73, ND 53 Piscataway, N.J. 
12/08/98 #1 UConn 106, ND 81 South Bend, Ind. 
03/02/99 #6 UConn 96, ND 75 Piscataway, N.J. 
02/26/00 #1 UConn 77, ND 59 Hartford, Conn. 
01/15/01 ND 92, #1 UConn 76 South Bend, Ind.
03/06/01 #2 UConn 78, ND 76 Storrs, Conn. 
03/30/01 ND 90, #1 UConn 75 St. Louis, Mo. 
01/21/02 #1 UConn 80, ND 53 Hartford, Conn. 
01/20/03 #2 UConn 72, ND 53 South Bend, Ind. 
02/23/03 #1 UConn 77, ND59 Storrs, Conn. 
01/13/04 ND 66, #4 UConn 51 South Bend, Ind.
01/12/05 #16 UConn 67, #7 ND 50 South Bend, Ind. 
01/30/05 #6 ND 65, #9 UConn 59 Storrs, Conn.
03/07/05 #14 UConn 67, #10 ND 54 Hartford, Conn. 
02/19/06 #8 UConn 79, ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
03/05/06 #7 UConn 71, ND 60 Hartford, Conn. 
01/27/07 #6 UConn 64, ND 47 Storrs, Conn. 
01/27/08 #1 UConn 81, #16 ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
02/22/09 #1 UConn 76, #24 ND 66 Hartford, Conn. 
01/16/10 #1 UConn 70, #3 ND 46 Storrs, Conn. 
03/01/10 #1 UConn 76, #8 ND 51 South Bend, Ind. 
03/08/10 #1 UConn 59, #6 ND 44 Hartford, Conn. 
01/08/11 #2 UConn 79, #19 ND 76 South Bend, Ind. 
02/19/11 #2 UConn 78, #8 ND 57 Storrs, Conn. 
03/08/11 #1 UConn 73, #10 ND 64 Hartford, Conn. 
04/03/11 #10 ND 72, #1 UConn 63 Indianapolis, Ind.
01/07/12 ND 74, #2 UConn 67 (OT) South Bend, Ind.
02/27/12 #3 ND 72, #4 UConn 59 Storrs, Conn.
03/06/12 #4 UConn 63, #3 ND 54 Hartford, Conn. 
04/01/12 #4 ND 83, #3 UConn 75 (OT) Denver, Colo.
01/05/13 #5 ND 73, #1 UConn 72 Storrs, Conn.
03/04/13 #2 ND 96, #3 UConn 87 (3OT) South Bend, Ind.
03/12/13 #2 ND 62, #3 UConn 59 Hartford, Conn.
04/07/13 #3 UConn 85, #2 ND 65 New Orleans, La. 
04/08/14 #1 UConn 79, #2 ND 58 Nashville, Tenn. 
12/06/14 #3 UConn 76, #2 ND 58 South Bend, Ind. 
04/07/15 #1 UConn 63, #2 ND 53 Tampa, Fla. 
12/05/15 #1 UConn 91, #3 ND 81 Storrs, Conn. 
12/07/16 #1 UConn 72, #2 ND 61 South Bend, Ind. 
12/03/17 #1 UConn 80, #3 ND 71 Hartford, Conn. 
03/30/18 #3 ND 91, #1 UConn 89 (OT) Columbus, Ohio

I put the UConn wins in bold to emphasize the UConn dominance

LAST YEARS HIGHLIGHTS

Yeah, I didn't link the UConn loss to ND in the Semi-finals. 

Hey, it's my blog and I figured UConn fans didn't need to see it again!!

Team Overviews

UConn vs. Notre Dame. Both Undefeated. 1 vs 2 again. In women's college basketball, there is other no rivalry like this right now.

While the overall advantage is 36-12 UConn, there was a period where Notre Dame dominated the rivalry. At one point Notre Dame won 7 of 8 games between April of 2011 and March of 2013. But since then, things have changed again. UConn had won the last 7 games between the two teams. And it hasn't been that close with the margins being 18, 21, 18, two years ago National Championship UConn won by 10 points and last two years regular season matchup was 10 and 11  points. And in the first game last year, UConn won by 9 points. 

However, in the semi-final game of the NCAA tournament last year, Notre Dame got the last laugh with a 91-89 win in overtime. Enough said about that!        

Notre Dame

No. 1 Notre Dame is now 7-0 on the season. They started out with two easy games, a 103-58 win over Harvard, and a 75-55 win over Pennsylvania. They then met No. 15 DePaul and after being down 29-22 after one quarter, pulled away fairly easily for a 101-77 win. They beat Gonzaga 81-65 and played Drake before they were ranked and won 82-64. Two games against ranked teams filled out the schedule to date, a 91-81 win over Oregon State and and Thursday night's win over No. 14 Iowa 105-71.  

UConn

No. 2 UConn is now 6-0 after winning three games in three days in the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands. UConn opened the season with a solid 85-53 win over Ohio State. They followed that with another very good win against Vanderbilt 80-42. In winning the Paradise Jam, the Huskies beat Ole Miss 90-50, St. John's 65-55 and Purdue 86-40. And in their last game they put the hammer to DePaul winning 99-63. That's four Power-5 Conference teams with 2 against the SEC, 2 against the Big Ten along with two wins against Big East teams.
                                            

             

  UCONN

          

UConn Starters

24 Napheesa Collier

6'1" Senior Forward

33 Katie Lou Samuelson

6'3" Senior Guard/Forward

5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Junior Guard

3 Megan Walker

6'1" Sophomore Guard/Forward

13 Christyn Williams
5'11" Freshman Guard

UConn Bench

10 Kyra Irwin

6'2" Junior Forward

25 Molly Bent 

5'9" Junior Guard

32 Batouly Camara 

6'2" RS Junior Forward

4 Mykala Coombs

5'8" Sophomore  Guard

34 Lexi Gordon

6' Sophomore Guard/Forward

20 Olivia Nelson-Ododa
6'4" Freshman Forward

UCONN TEAM STATS

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish

 

Notre Dame Coach

Muffet McGraw

  

McGraw is considered by many the 2nd best active coach in WCBB. It's hard to argue that based on the accomplishments of her program. She is a terrific recruiter, a fine tactician and a wonderful motivator of young women. Notre Dame certainly knows that and in July 2012, she signed a landmark 10-year contract extension that will keep her coaching at Notre Dame through the 2021-22 campaign.

The past 23 seasons (1995-96 to the present) have been the most successful in Notre Dame's history.

If you want to read some terrific detail about her career, here is the link to her Notre Dame Bio.

Notre Dame Starters

  

2 Arike Ogunbowale

 5'8" Senior Guard    

5 Jackie Young

6' Junior Guard

Jessica Shepard

6'4" Senior Center

3 Marina Mabrey

 5'11" Senior Guard

11 Briana Turner

6'3" Grad Student Forward

Notre Dame Bench 

  

12 Abby Proheska

5'11" Freshman Guard

32 Danielle Patterson 

 6'2" Sophomore Forward    

30 Mikayla Vaughn 

 6'3" Sophomore  Center    

Injured out for the Game

10 Katlyn Gilbert

5'10" Freshman Guard

Reinjured her shoulder in the Iowa Game

0 Jordan Nixon

5'8" Freshman Guard

Out with Concussion 

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 Game Analysis

Another game between the maybe the two best teams for the 2018-19 season and certainly the two best programs in WCBB.

Because they have played so often and so recently, you can get a better handle on how this game will turn out. 

UConn has three starters returning in Katie Lou Samuelson, Napheesa Collier, Crystal Dangerfield and has moved 2017 No.1 recruit Megan Walker and 2018 No. 1 recruit Christyn Williams into the starting lineup. 

Notre Dame has four starters back from their National Championship team in 5'11 Senior guard Marina Mabrey, 6'4" Senior center Jessica Shepard, 5'8" Senior guard Arike Ogunbowale and 6' Junior guard Jackie Young and plus a former starter back after a season off rehabbing from injury in 6'3" Senior Brianna Turner. 

That maybe makes these two starting teams the most talented in WCBB. The benches are a totally different story. 

UConn might bring off the bench 5'8" Sophomore guard Mikayla Coombs, 6'2" Junior forward Kayla Irwin and 6'4" Freshman forward/center Olivia Nelson-Ododa. 

Notre Dame might bring off the bench 6'3" Sophomore center Mikayla Vaughn, 6'2" Sophomore forward Danielle Paterson and 5'10" Freshman guard Abby Proheska.  

Notice I said might when talking about the benches for both teams. Depending on foul trouble or the flow of the game, we might see 3-4 starters on each team play the full 40 minutes.           

Offensively, Notre Dame will play their usual motion offense no matter who is in the lineup. They set tough off the ball screens, trying to get their shooters open.  Notre Dame is going to be using every tactic they can to free their two best outside shooters. And that is Mabrey and Ogunbowale. The problem for Notre Dame is that Mabrey is coming off a quad injury, missed the first 5 games of the season and is still rounding into shape. She is 4-13 for the season from deep and only played 16 and 23 minutes in her two games back. I'm not sure if she can go past 25 minutes and be effective. You could see the fatigue at times in her two games. Ogunbowale is only 13-40 from downtown for only 32.5% with her 3-5 in her last game the only reason she is over 30%.  Of course that doesn't mean Obunbowale won't continue her one game hot streak and Mabrey won't get hot against UConn. They certainly are capable. 

The Irish will also use the pick and roll with Shepard and Turner. And try a ton of back cuts and even alley oops with Turner off of those aforementioned screens. Young is the wild card in this offense. She is the best athlete on the team and can score in bunches. That all being said, we all know that Notre Dame is a well coached and can play like a well-oiled offensive team and they showed that against Iowa in their last game. 

Defensively, Notre Dame uses some trapping defenses but for the most part, they will play a switching man-to-man like UConn does. In the past what they have done best is get into the passing lanes to create turnovers. This season they average 9 steals per game. Turner adds a shot blocking dimension that they didn't have last season, but UConn should be able to get to the rim on drives.  

UConn will do what they do best offensively. They will run their own motion offense, looking for post entry passes to Collier, Walker and Samuelson although Collier is really the main post player on offense. UConn will also use their defense to spark their offense. This version of UConn relies a lot on the three point shot with Samuelson, Dangerfield, Williams, Walker and even Collier when open to hit the open three. UConn will set screens to get them open and also use their terrific ball movement to do the same.    

Defensively, look for UConn to pressure Notre Dame. Not necessarily to turn over, although that will be a big part of their defense, but more to take time off the clock forcing Notre Dame into bad shots. Here is another place Notre Dame will miss the graduated Allen. The Irish really don't have a traditional point guard so Mabrey is the starting at that position. Mabrey is a decent ball handler but could have real trouble with the UConn pressure defense. 

Final Prediction

Oh boy....a tough game to predict.

Both teams are dynamite on offense and tough on defense. Notre Dame has the edge in score, averaging 91.1 points per game and UConn is averaging 84.2.  On defense, it's UConn with the advantage averaging 50.5 points per game allowed while Notre Dame is giving up 67.3.

The only team that both teams has played this year is DePaul where UConn won 99-63 and Notre Dame won 101-77. I don't think you can take too much from that, but it's clear that DePaul was able to score early with 29 points in the first quarter before the Irish slowed them down.

I looked at the stats closely to see where I could see some advantages.

UConn is just shooting lights out at 53.8% and a terrific 41.8% on threes. Notre Dame is shooting 49.3% and 30.5 on threes. Clearly UConn has the advantage here.

On defense, UConn is allowing 30.7% from the field and  25.9% on threes. Notre Dame is allowing  38.4% from the field and 30.0% on threes. UConn has the advantage again.

So, do these numbers matter? Sometimes. It could depend on strength of schedule. Were UConn's opponents easier than Notre Dames?

According to Realtime RPI yes. The Irish is 3rd in SOS while UConn is way down at the 16th SOS. Massey has Notre Dame's SOS as No. 2 and UConn's SOS as No. 10.

Massey does a matchup thing were you simulate games and they had UConn with a 62% chance of winning and Notre Dame with a 32%. Their predicted score is 79.54-75.60 in favor of UConn, a 4 point spread.

So, my prediction? I'll be damned if I know, but I never pick against UConn, so I'll just go with a little more, UConn by 8+ as long as they can play their 5 starters 35+ minutes each. If there is foul trouble, Notre Dame will win a close one.