Day: Saturday
Date: March 26, 2016
Location: Bridgeport, Ct
Time: 11:30 AM
TV: ESPN2
TV: ESPN2
1 Seed UConn Huskies 5 Seed Mississippi State
34-0 28-7
Overview
This is the first meeting between UConn and Mississippi State in their history but the men teams met in the sweet sixteen in 1995 during the Ray Allen era.
Mississippi State has had one of their most successful seasons, going 28-7 and making the Sweet Sixteen for the second time in their history. This is their 8th appearance in the NCAA tournament starting with the 1998-99 season, losing in the first round. They have had 6 second round losses and the 2009-10 team was their most successful team, making the sweet sixteen by upsetting 2 seed Ohio State 87-67 before losing to Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen game, 74-71.
This year, MSU has had an excellent record, but it was built on a really weak schedule. The OOC schedule was the worst of any top 25 team and there were plenty of comments early in the season on how bad it was. They played two good teams OOC in Texas and South Florida, but the remaining teams in the OOC schedule were just embarrassing.
They are 2-5 against current top twenty five teams. Beating South Florida 68-58 and Michigan State (in the second round) 74-72. They lost to South Carolina twice, 57-51 and 66-52 in the SEC tournament final. They also lost to Texas 53-47 early in the season, Texas A&M 64-58 and Kentucky 83-60.
They beat Tennessee for the first time in their history after 36 consecutive losses to the Lady Vols, 65-63 in overtime before beating them again in the SEC tournament 58-48. Those wins were the highlights of the season before the 2nd round game against Michigan State.
UConn and Mississippi State played several mutual opponents. UConn, of course, won all of those games.
MSU defeated SMU 72-70, UConn beat them 90-37 and 88-41.
MSU defeated USF 68-58, UConn beat them 75-59, 66-54 and 79-59.
MSU defeated LSU 71-52, UConn beat them 86-40.
MSU defeated Chattanooga 60-50, UConn beat them 79-31.
MUS lost to South Carolina 57-51 and 66-52, UConn beat them 66-54.
If you are a big fan of comparative scores to predict the future, you have plenty of ammunition.
UConn is coming of another terrific effort in the final game at Gample Pavilion for Stewart, Jefferson, Pulido and possibly Tuck, beating a physical Duquesne team 97-51. They had a slow start, but boy did they turn it on as the game went on. I'll leave it at that. I don't think my readers need to know more about UConn's season that hasn't been said already.
Mississippi State has had one of their most successful seasons, going 28-7 and making the Sweet Sixteen for the second time in their history. This is their 8th appearance in the NCAA tournament starting with the 1998-99 season, losing in the first round. They have had 6 second round losses and the 2009-10 team was their most successful team, making the sweet sixteen by upsetting 2 seed Ohio State 87-67 before losing to Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen game, 74-71.
This year, MSU has had an excellent record, but it was built on a really weak schedule. The OOC schedule was the worst of any top 25 team and there were plenty of comments early in the season on how bad it was. They played two good teams OOC in Texas and South Florida, but the remaining teams in the OOC schedule were just embarrassing.
They are 2-5 against current top twenty five teams. Beating South Florida 68-58 and Michigan State (in the second round) 74-72. They lost to South Carolina twice, 57-51 and 66-52 in the SEC tournament final. They also lost to Texas 53-47 early in the season, Texas A&M 64-58 and Kentucky 83-60.
They beat Tennessee for the first time in their history after 36 consecutive losses to the Lady Vols, 65-63 in overtime before beating them again in the SEC tournament 58-48. Those wins were the highlights of the season before the 2nd round game against Michigan State.
UConn and Mississippi State played several mutual opponents. UConn, of course, won all of those games.
MSU defeated SMU 72-70, UConn beat them 90-37 and 88-41.
MSU defeated USF 68-58, UConn beat them 75-59, 66-54 and 79-59.
MSU defeated LSU 71-52, UConn beat them 86-40.
MSU defeated Chattanooga 60-50, UConn beat them 79-31.
MUS lost to South Carolina 57-51 and 66-52, UConn beat them 66-54.
If you are a big fan of comparative scores to predict the future, you have plenty of ammunition.
UConn is coming of another terrific effort in the final game at Gample Pavilion for Stewart, Jefferson, Pulido and possibly Tuck, beating a physical Duquesne team 97-51. They had a slow start, but boy did they turn it on as the game went on. I'll leave it at that. I don't think my readers need to know more about UConn's season that hasn't been said already.
Stat by Stat Comparison
Leader is bolded.
Leader is bolded.
UConn Mississippi State
88.2 Points Per Game 70.1
48.0 Opp Points Per Game 54.7
.525 Field Goal % .400
.330 Opp Field Goal % .372
.372 3 Point Field Goal % .306
.311 Opp 3 Point Field Goal % .275
.800 Free Throw % .732
41.1 Rebounds Per Game 40.1
29.5 Opp Rebounds Per Game 34.5
21.5 Assists Per Game 13.4
11.8 Turnovers Per Game 14.6
1.8 Assists/Turnover Ratio .9
1.8 Assists/Turnover Ratio .9
12.3 Steals Per Game 7.8
6.4 Blocks Per Game 4.7
UConn Starters
30 Breanna Stewart
6'4" Senior Forward
6'4" Senior Forward
NCAA Game 1 - 20 minutes, 18 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assist, 0 TO, 8 steals, 3 blocks
NCAA Game 2 - 34 minutes, 21 points, 16 rebounds, 2 assist, 4 TO, 5 blocks
2015-16 Stats
33 Games - MPG 28.5, FG% .580, 3PT% .407 PPG 19.2 RPG 8.4, APG 4.0, 61 steals, 115 blocks
33 Games - MPG 28.5, FG% .580, 3PT% .407 PPG 19.2 RPG 8.4, APG 4.0, 61 steals, 115 blocks
3 Morgan Tuck
6'2" RS Junior Forward
6'2" RS Junior Forward
NCAA Game 1 - 20 minutes, 13 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assist, 1 TO, 2 steals
NCAA Game 2 - 35 minutes, 20 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assist, 1 TO, 1 steal, 1 block
2015-16 Stats
29 Games - MPG 26.0, FG% .500, 3PT% .286, PPG 12.8, RPG 5.9, APG 3.3, 23 steals, 9 blocks
4 Moriah Jefferson
5'7" Senior Guard
5'7" Senior Guard
NCAA Game 1 - 23 minutes, 14 points, 0 rebounds, 5 assist, 1 TO, 2 steals
NCAA Game 2 - 34 minutes, 20 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assist, 0 TO, 3 steals
2015-16 Stats
33 Games - MPG 30.5, FG% .560, 3PT% .427, PPG 12.8, RPG 2.6, APG 5.4, 88 steals, 6 blocks
11 Kia Nurse
6' Sophomore Guard
NCAA Game 1 - 27 minutes, 14 points, 0 rebounds, 6 assist, 0 TO, 4 steals
NCAA Game 2 - 28 minutes, 7 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assist, 1 TO
2015-16 Stats
34 Games - MPG 27.6, FG% .438, 3PT% .356, PPG 9.4, RPG 1.9, APG 2.7, 49 steals, 6 blocks
33 Katie Lou Samuelson
6'3" Freshman Guard/Forward
NCAA Game 1 - 25 minutes, 22 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TO, 2 steals
NCAA Game 2 - 22 minutes, 3 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 2 TO
2015-16 Stats
34 Games - MPG 23.3, FG% .487, 3PT% .391, PPG 10.9, RPG 3.3, APG 2.3, 37 steals, 5 blocks
UConn Bench
51 Natalie Butler
6'5" RS Sophomore Center
12 Saniya Chong
5'8" Junior Guard
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Sophomore Forward
5'11" Sophomore Forward
NCAA Game 1 - 22 minutes, 2 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steal
NCAA Game 2 - 14 minutes, 6 points, 5 rebounds, 1 TO
NCAA Game 2 - 14 minutes, 6 points, 5 rebounds, 1 TO
2015-16 Stats
34 Games - MPG 19.0, FG% .640, 3PT% .000, PPG 9.1 RPG 5.8, APG 1.3, 66 steals, 12 blocks
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1 Freshman Forward/Guard
NCAA Game 1 - 21 minutes, 14 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block
NCAA Game 1 - 13 minutes, 11 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 1 steal
2015-16 Stats
34 Games - MPG 17.6, FG% .527, 3PT% .222, PPG 6.9, RPG 5.4, APG .9, 47 steals, 44 blocks
6'5" RS Sophomore Center
NCAA Game 1 - 2 points, 1 block, 1 TO
NCAA Game 2 - 1 points
2015-16 Stats
23 Games - MPG 13.0, FG% .573, 3PT% .000, PPG 6.1, RPG 4.3, APG .9, 13 steals, 18 blocks
5'8" Junior Guard
NCAA game 1 - 12 minutes, 2 points, 1 rebounds, 4 TO
NCAA game 2 - 6 minutes, 8 points, 1 steal
2015-16 Stats
29 Games - MPG 13.5, FG% .418, 3PT% .368, PPG 4.1, RPG 1.4, APG 1.1, 19 steals, 2 blocks
22 Courtney Ekmark
6' Sophomore Guard
NCAA Game 1 - 13 minutes, 1 assists, 2 TO, 2 steals
NCAA Game 2 - 4 minutes
2015-16 Stats
30 Games - MPG 9.4, FG% .436, 3PT% .361, PPG 2.1, RPG 1.2, APG .7, 12 steals, 1 block
20 Tierney Lawlor
5'7" Junior Guard
2015-16 Stats
22 Briana Pulido
5'7" Senior Guard
NCAA Game 1 - 3 minutes, 1 turnover
NCAA Game 2 - 3 minutes
2015-16 Stats
27 Games - MPG 3.1, FG% .429, 3PT% .400, PPG .3, RPG 0.1, APG 0.2, 1 steals, 0 blocks
5'7" Senior Guard
NCAA Game 1 - 3 minutes, 1 rebound
NCAA Game 2 - 3 minutes, 1 rebound
2015-16 Stats
24 Games - MPG 2.7, FG% .176, 3PT% .100, PPG 0.3, RPG 0.2, APG 0.1, 1 steals, 0 blocks
Head Coach
Vic Schaefer
Schaefer, a veteran coach of 31 seasons, came to Starkville with the blueprints to crafting Mississippi State into a championship program. In just his third season he added a major building block as the Bulldogs enjoyed a record-setting 2014-15 campaign that earned him SEC Coach of the Year honors from the Associated Press, co-Coach of the Year accolades from his league peers and Naismith National Coach of the Year semifinalist honors.
Mississippi State Starters
35 Victoria Vivians
6'1" Sophomore Guard
NCAA Game 1 - 38 minutes, 19 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assists, 2 steals, 3 TO
NCAA Game 2 - 40 minutes, 24 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 3 TO
2015-16 Stats
MPG 31.2, FG% .387, 3PT% .312, PPG 17.4, RPG 5.9, APG 1.0, 62 steals, 10 blocks
2 Morgan William
5'5" Sophomore Guard
NCAA Game 1 - 31 minutes, 6 points, 1 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 block, 2 TO
NCAA Game 2 - 32 minutes, 14 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steal, 5 TO
2015-16 Stats
MPG 29.9, FG% .326, 3PT% .286, PPG 9.9, RPG 2.3, APG 5.0, 40 steals, 7 blocks
00 Dominique Dillingham
5'9" Junior Guard
NCAA Game 1 - 40 minutes, 3 points, 1 rebounds, 2 assist, 3 steals, 1 TO, 3 blocks
NCAA Game 2 - 35 minutes, 6 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals, 2 TO
MPG 32.9, FG% .369, 3PT% .281, PPG 8.0, RPG 3.7, APG 1.9, 54 steals, 17 blocks
45 Chinwe Okorie
6'5" Junior Center
NCAA Game 1 - 17 minutes, 12 points, 9 rebounds, 2 TO
NCAA Game 2 - 19 minutes, 4 points, 1 rebounds, 1 block, 1 TO
2015-16 Stats
MPG 20.9, FG% .541, 3PT% .000, PPG 7.0, RPG 6.1, APG .3, 15 steals, 26 blocks
13 Ketara Chapel
6'1" Junior Forward
NCAA Game 1 - 26 minutes, 2 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 TO
NCAA Game 2 - 20 minutes, 8 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 steals, 1 TO
2015-16 Stats
MPG 21.0, FG% .455, 3PT% .000, PPG 4.9, RPG 3.4, APG 1.0, 16 steals, 10 blocks
Mississippi State Bench
15 Teaira McGowan
6'7" Freshman Center
NCAA Game 1 - 14 minutes, 6 points, 7 rebounds, 4 TO
NCAA Game 2 - 17 minutes, 4 points, 8 rebounds, 2 TO, 1 steals, 1 block
2015-16 Stats
MPG 13.6, FG% .483, 3PT% .000, PPG 6.5, RPG 5.6, APG 0.2, 17 steals, 46 blocks
3 Breanna Richardson
6'1" Junior Forward
NCAA Game 1 - 6 minutes, 1 points, 1 TO
NCAA Game 2 - 20 minutes, 12 points, 1 rebounds, 1 block, 1 TO
2015-16 Stats
MPG 17.9, FG% .410, 3PT% .188, PPG 5.6, RPG 3.9, APG .9, 20 steals 15 blocks
23 Kayla Nevitt
5'10" Sophomore Guard
NCAA Game 1 - DNP
NCAA Game 2 - 11 minutes, 2 points, 1 rebounds
2015-16 Stats
MPG 10.0, FG% .406, 3PT% .348, PPG 3.6, RPG 1.2, APG 0.6, 12 steals, 6 blocks
Game Analysis
I have to admit. I'm happy to play another SEC team. This offensive challenged conference is sending one of its offensively challenged team. They are 10th in the SEC in Field Goal percentage at 40%, 7th in Three Point percentage at 30.6%. The stats don't lie. Mississippi State is a terrible shooting team.
Their offense is pretty simple. Their dynamic point guard, 5'5" Morgan William (no "s" but listen for how many times the announcers call her Williams) is a terrific player. She is quick and can take contact and finish in the paint when she does drive. But she struggles to finish at the basket shooting 32.6% from the field and is not a good long range shooter, hitting 28.6% on threes. Usually she will dribble at the top of the key, and look for an entry pass to their two-headed center, 6'5" Chinwe Okorie and 6'7" freshman Tearia McGowan. Or find a guard on the wing. In the games I watched, the problem was not getting the ball to the center but both centers actually finishing with a basket. So many missed chippies. McGowan did lead the Bulldogs in double-doubles.
But the Bulldogs offense is all about 6'1" sophomore guard Victoria Vivians. She has taken over 300 more shots than anyone else on the team averaging 17 shots per game, 5 more than Stewart does for UConn. She has also taken almost 200 more three point shots than anyone on her team averaging 7 three point shots per game. Vivians is the definition of a volume shooter. The problem for MSU is that she shoots only 38.7% from the field and 31.2% on threes. Like I said the numbers don't lie.
Vivians seemed to do a lot of standing around the perimeter, waiting for a teammate to pass it to her. She does run the baseline occasionally, trying to rub her defenders off of screens. But you can rest assured that when the ball is in her hands she will either launce a three pointer or attempt a move to the basket. She has only 36 assists in 35 games. You've heard of a black hole? The ball goes to her but doesn't come out. And either will she, probably playing 40 minutes.
My favorite player on this Bulldog team is a player that plays very bulldoggish on every possession. Dominique Billingham is a 5'10" guard that is just all over the court on defense. She won't give you much on offense, but she is a real pest defending her (wo)man. She has taken a team high number of charges with 52, over 1 per game. So expect to see that at least once. Her problem is she is another weak shooter, 36.9% from the field and 28.1% on threes.
Ketera Chapel, a 6'1" forward, is the other starter. She and Breanna Richardson, a 6'1" forward typically share the power forward (4) spot on the court and are both solid defenders and decent around the basket on offense. They will end up with 40 minutes between them.
Defense is the Lady Bulldogs calling card. Their coach Vic Schaefer, was an assistant to Gary Blair at Texas &M when they won their national championship. As I heard too many times while watching their games, he is know as the Secretary of Defense. So how does he do it?
They play exclusively man to man. In the several games I watched, they didn't play zone once. They pressure the inbounds after a made basket almost every time. And they do a good job of that. Once the opponent inbounds they seem to release the pressure, quickly retreating to set up their man to man. I didn't see them use extended pressure once. Weird.
In the man to man, they use their athleticism to defend hard. Against most of the teams they played, it's been very successful. They only allow 37.2% shooting from the field. And 27.5% shooting on threes. Some of that can be related to their poor schedule and the lousy shooting teams in the SEC. What I did see was that they are prone to allowing back door cuts. Simple fake to the outside then cut to the basket type back door cuts. Their help defense seemed a little slow. Hey, if I saw it, I know Geno saw it.
In the man to man, the Bulldogs really have problems matching up.
William vs Jefferson will be fun to watch. She is quick, but not Jefferson quick. And she had some trouble keeping players in front of her. Jefferson is something she has never seen before.
The Billingham/Nurse match up will be really physical. Both players love contact, but Nurse should be able to get open for a few threes.
Their two headed centers are decent post defenders, but both are slow up and down the court and Tuck should be able to run them into exhaustion. Foul trouble could come into play for the two centers as they haven't come close to seeing a player with post moves like Morgan.
That leaves Vivians and one of the power forwards, Chapel and Richardson to play against Stewart and Samuelson. All are 6'1" going against 6'4" and 6'3" players that can hit threes. I would expect MSU to put Vivians on Samuelson. Vivians is not a good defender. It's know that she is a work progress on that side of the ball, making their coach crazy at times with her lack of defensive effort. She will lose Samuelson on the perimeter as she tries to take the easy way out and double the ball instead of staying home with Samuelson. The two other players are no match for Stewart, but it won't be for lack of effort. Both play aggressive defense and certainly won't back down from Stewart.
UConn will look to take full advantage of their matchup advantages. Tucks quickness over the two MSU centers will be apparent early. She will run the court, and bring them out to the perimeter to clear the lane for back cuts. Think how she played against Coates. Similar sized players but not as skilled as Coates. They will screen like crazy, opening up the outside for their shooters.
On defense, I'm not sure how much zone UConn will play, but with a team as weak as Mississippi State is from the outside, it might be effective. But you can bet they will pressure William early and with great intensity. They don't have a lot of other great ball handlers so I would expect the pressure to either create turnovers or give MSU less time on the clock to run what little offense they have.
UConn's advantages are vast on both sides of the ball.
Final Prediction
Whew....lots of info, huh. See what I can come up with when I don't have to babysit?
I'm not usually a fan of comparative scores, but those just jump out at you. Especially the SMU game and the Chattanooga game. UConn just decimated both of those teams while Mississippi State struggled with both.
Add in the facts about MSU's schedule and their poor shooting and I just can't see the Bulldogs scoring more than 45 points.
UConn has had some slow starts and the occasion sloppy periods. Mississippi State plays a tough enough defense to slow UConn down and cause these two things to happen. But UConn has way too many scoring options, and give UConn a weak to scout a team and they will put a hurting on the opponent. Especially a one player offense like MSU.
Geno will show Coach Schaefer who is the real secretary of defense and UConn will win by 35+. Something like 75-40.
If you want to see a show in a show, train your eye on Vic Schaefer on the sidelines. He is so intense, 100% of the time. When he extols his team to run after a rebound, he runs down the sideline, spinning his arm in a circle. And his looks when a ref makes a call he doesn't like is priceless. He always looks at the replay and then points to the scoreboard when yelling at the ref.
I'm not usually a fan of comparative scores, but those just jump out at you. Especially the SMU game and the Chattanooga game. UConn just decimated both of those teams while Mississippi State struggled with both.
Add in the facts about MSU's schedule and their poor shooting and I just can't see the Bulldogs scoring more than 45 points.
UConn has had some slow starts and the occasion sloppy periods. Mississippi State plays a tough enough defense to slow UConn down and cause these two things to happen. But UConn has way too many scoring options, and give UConn a weak to scout a team and they will put a hurting on the opponent. Especially a one player offense like MSU.
Geno will show Coach Schaefer who is the real secretary of defense and UConn will win by 35+. Something like 75-40.
Odds and Ends
If you want to see a show in a show, train your eye on Vic Schaefer on the sidelines. He is so intense, 100% of the time. When he extols his team to run after a rebound, he runs down the sideline, spinning his arm in a circle. And his looks when a ref makes a call he doesn't like is priceless. He always looks at the replay and then points to the scoreboard when yelling at the ref.
Morgan William is a very unusual physical specimen. She has extremely long arms and big hands for such a small player. And her posture is......what can I say....weird. Shoulders back and a curved back make my back hurt just watching her.
Some fun with numbers from me!!!
In their NCAA tournament rotation of seven, UConn has five player that shot over 50% from the field. The other two are shooting 48.5% and 43.5%.
In their NCAA tournament rotation of seven, Mississippi State has one play shooting over 50%. Three others are shooting 48%, 45% and 41%. But the top three scorers are shooting 38%, 32% and 37%.
In their NCAA tournament rotation of seven, UConn has 6 players with a positive assist/TO ratio.
In their NCAA tournament rotation of seven, MSU has 2 players with a positive assist/TO ratio.
Quotes
Morgan William: "I like going against the best. So I am excited to play UConn."
Dominique Dillingham: " (UConn) has always been good, but to me it is just another basketball team when we play them."
Morgan William: They’re just another basketball team. They’ve just got UConn written across their shirt.
Dominique Dillingham: …It’s just another game…we played Tennessee, they’re a great team, but you know, they’re just like Tennessee, they’re great too, it’s just another team to me.
Dominique Dillingham: We match up pretty well with them, overall, and I think we can take advantage inside we have a little bit of a height advantage, but Breanna Stewart is a great defender so I think if we attack her, that’s a good thing for us to do is to attack her defensively, but overall, I think we can attack them…
Dominique Dillingham: " (UConn) has always been good, but to me it is just another basketball team when we play them."
Morgan William: They’re just another basketball team. They’ve just got UConn written across their shirt.
Dominique Dillingham: …It’s just another game…we played Tennessee, they’re a great team, but you know, they’re just like Tennessee, they’re great too, it’s just another team to me.
Dominique Dillingham: We match up pretty well with them, overall, and I think we can take advantage inside we have a little bit of a height advantage, but Breanna Stewart is a great defender so I think if we attack her, that’s a good thing for us to do is to attack her defensively, but overall, I think we can attack them…
Oh, boy! Might want to let sleeping dogs lie, MSU. Just sayin'.
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