DoggyDaddy's UConn/Mississippi State Pre Game Report

UCONN VS. Mississippi State

Day: Friday

Date: March 31, 2017

Loc: Dallas, Texas

Time: Approx. 10:00
TV: ESPN

                    

1 Seed UConn Huskies                            2 Seed Mississippi State

           36-0                                                                33-4

Overview

Prior Meetings

UConn leads 1-0

H: 0-0; A: 0-0; N: 1-0

3/26/16 W 98-38 N

Highlights from last years game

UConn's 98-38 victory in last years Sweet Sixteen match up was the most dominating performance in NCAA tournament history for margin of victory in the regional rounds and beyond. Click on the score link for details. Mississippi State has almost everyone back this year from that game, so I'm sure the players are plenty pissed off about that game. But are they still shell shocked? Well, UConn lost Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck, who contributed 48 points, 21 rebounds and 11 assists to that win. So, how did all the returning players do in that game?

Mississippi State 

Vivians 6 points, 3 rebounds, 3-15 FG, 0-3 3PT 

Dillingham 4 points, 5 rebounds, 2-6 FG, 0-1 3PT

Williams 2 points, 0 assists, 1-8 FG

McCowan 10 points, 4 rebounds, 5-6 FG

UConn

Samuelson 21 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 9-14 FG, 2-6 3PT 

Nurse 6 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 3-5 FG, 0-1 3PT  

Williams 7 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals 

Collier 4 points, 1 rebound, 1 assists 

Chong 3 points, 1 rebound, 1 assists

Butler 6 points, 8 rebounds

I don't think you can glean much from these numbers. But we know for sure that the remaining UConn players have stepped up to replace the ones that left.      

Mississippi State has had one of their most successful seasons last year, going 28-7 and making the Sweet Sixteen for the second time in their history. This season, they topped that by going 33-4 this year and getting to the Elite Eight. This is their 9th appearance in the NCAA tournament starting with the 1998-99 season, losing in the first round.

MSU has only four losses this season. They won their first 20 games before losing to then No. 4 South Carolina 64-61 in a tough defensive battle. They followed that with seven more wins before losing a heartbreaker in overtime to then No. 22 Kentucky 78-75. They followed that up with their worst game of the season, a 82-64 loss at home to Tennessee. In another defensive battle, they lost to then No. 5 South Carolina in the SEC tournament final 59-49.

Much of their OOC schedule was pretty weak, so the 20-0 start was not that surprising. Their best win of the OOC schedule as a 79-68 win over then No. 8 Texas. But other than that, they played some pretty weak teams. They did beat NCAA tourney team Texas A&M twice, but I don't think that is really that impressive.

To me, this team is not that much different than last years team. And that one was pretty good.
            

Stat by Stat Comparison

 Leader is bolded

                         UConn                                          Mississippi State

                                           87.7         Points Per Game                     76.8

                                           54.6         Opp Points Per Game             57.2

                                           .529         Field Goal %                           .450

                                           .350         Opp Field Goal %                   .392

                                           .404         3 Point Field Goal %              .353

                                           .276         Opp 3 Point Field Goal %      .278

                                           .783         Free Throw %                         .728

                                            39.1        Rebounds Per Game                38.3

                                            32.1         Opp Rebounds Per Game       31.4

                                            23.7         Assists Per Game                   15.0

                                            11.9         Turnovers Per Game              12.8
                                              2.0         Assists/Turnover Ratio            1.2

                                            10.2         Steals Per Game                      8.4

                                              4.9         Blocks Per Game                    4.0

I always like to do some "stats analysis". As usual, UConn has the advantage with every stat (except opp rebounds per game..thanks Phil). I compared last years stats for this game to this year and there is not much difference between the two seasons. Last years team was a better rebounding team and better overall defensive team (no surprise with Jefferson and Stewart on that version). This year's team has advantages in three point shooting, three point defending and passing efficiency. It all balances out to a team just about as good as last years version.

How does MSU compare from last year's team? This years team is clearly better offensively. That average around 6 more points per game. Their shooting percentages are higher in both 2 point shots and three point shooting. They have less turnovers and more assists this year than compared to last year. In fact, they have a positive assists/to ration compared to last seasons negative number.

But on the defensive end, the numbers are down The defensive shooting percentages are worse, they rebound less, and they block less shots.

So UConn's offense is better and MSU's defense is worse. And conversely, UConn's defensive is worse and MSU's offense is better. How does that translate into the final score? More points than the 38 for MSU for sure. But I'm not sure UConn will score more than their 98.        

UCONN

UConn Starters

33 Katie Lou Samuelson

6'3" Sophomore Guard/Forward

Albany - 33 minutes, 15 points, 3 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals
Syracuse - 35 minutes 23 points, 5 rebounds 4 assists, 1 steal
UCLA - 40 minutes, 15 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal
Oregon - 34 minutes, 8 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 5 steals 

MPG 31.4, FG% .486, 3PT% .419, FT% .837, PPG 20.3, RPG 3.8, APG 3.3

24 Napheesa Collier

6'1" Sophomore Forward/Guard

Albany - 28 minutes, 24 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks
Syracuse - 28 minutes 17 points, 7 rebounds 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks
UCLA - 36 minutes, 27 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks
Oregon - 34 minutes, 28 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 4 blocks

MPG 30.0, FG% .686, 3PT% .429, FT% .827, PPG 20.6, RPG 9.1, APG 2.3

15 Gabby Williams

5'11" Junior Forward

Albany - 27 minutes, 20 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals, 1 block 

Syracuse - 32 minutes 23 points, 6 rebounds 5 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks
UCLA - 38 minutes, 17 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal
Oregon - 33 minutes, 25 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals 

MPG 28.6, FG% .581, 3PT% .167, FT% .730, PPG 14.1, RPG 8.4, APG 5.2

11 Kia Nurse

6' Junior Guard

Albany - 24 minutes, 24 points, 0 rebounds, 3 assists
Syracuse - 34 minutes, 29 points, 1 rebound, 6 assists
UCLA - 31 minutes, 9 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists
Oregon - 33 minutes, 11 points, 1 rebound, 7 assists, 1 steal

MPG 30.1, FG% .487, 3PT% .467, FT% .855, PPG 12.9, RPG 2.2, APG 3.8

12 Saniya Chong

5'8" Senior Guard

Albany - 31 minutes, 6 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals
Syracuse - 31 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 7 assists
UCLA - 38 minutes, 16 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists
Oregon -35 minutes, 11 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals  

MPG 30.6, FG% .470, 3PT% .395, FT% .808, PPG 8.2, RPG 3.0, APG 4.0

UConn Bench

5 Crystal Dangerfield

5'5" Freshman Guard

Albany - 29 minutes, 16 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 block
Syracuse - 23 minutes, 2 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal
UCLA - 17 minutes, 2 points, 0 rebounds, 4 assists
Oregon - 13 minutes, 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist

PPG 23.9, FG% .406 3PT% .317, FT% .600, PPG 6.2, RPG 2.2, APG 3.8

51 Natalie Butler

6'5" RS Junior Center

Albany - 15 minutes, 8 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks
Syracuse - 8 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound
UCLA - DNP
Oregon - 10 minutes, 6 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks 

MPG 15.9, FG% .500, 3PT% .000, FT% .689, PPG 5.6, RPG 5.1, APG 1.1

10 Molly Bent

5'9" Freshman Guard

Albany - 5 minutes
Syracuse - 3 minutes
UCLA - DNP
Oregon - 3 minutes

MPG 9.3 FG% .303, 3PT% .333, FT% .625, PPG 1.1, RPG 1.2, APG 1.1

25 Kyla Irwin

6'2" Freshman Forward

Albany - 5 minutes, 3 points, 1 assist
Syracuse - 4 minutes
UCLA - DNP
Oregon - 3 minutes, 1 rebound

MPG 7.8, FG% .462, 3PT% .353, FT% .714, PPG 2.4, RPG 1.4, APG .5

20 Tierney Lawlor

5'7" Senior Guard

Albany - 2 minutes, 1 steal
Syracuse - 3 minutes, 1 assist
UCLA - DNP
Oregon - 2 minutes

MPG 3.4, FG% .000, 3PT% .000, FT% .500, PPG 0.1, RPG .4, APG .1

UCONN TEAM STATS

Head Coach

Vic Schaefer  

Schaefer, a veteran coach of 31 seasons, came to Starkville with the blueprints to crafting Mississippi State into a championship program. In just his third season he added a major building block as the Bulldogs enjoyed a record-setting 2014-15 campaign that earned him SEC Coach of the Year honors from the Associated Press, co-Coach of the Year accolades from his league peers and Naismith National Coach of the Year semifinalist honors.

If you want to see a show in a show, train your eye on Vic Schaefer on the sidelines. He is so intense, 100% of the time. When he extols his team to run after a rebound, he runs down the sideline, spinning his arm in a circle. And his looks when a ref makes a call he doesn't like is priceless. He always looks at the replay and then points to the scoreboard when yelling at the ref.

Mississippi State Starters

35 Victoria Vivians

6'1" Junior Guard

Troy - 16 minutes, 13 points, 6 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 steal

DePaul - 19 minutes, 12 points, 1 rebounds, 2 assists

Washington - 23 minutes, 13 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal

Baylor - 45 minutes, 24 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals

 MPG 28.8, FG% .376, 3PT% .283, PPG 16.3, RPG 4.2, APG 1.5

2 Morgan William 

5'5" Junior Guard

Troy - 21 minutes, 6 points, 1 rebounds, 5 assists

DePaul - 15 minutes, 0 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists 

Washington - 31 minutes, 5 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal

Baylor - 40 minutes, 41 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal, 1 block  

   MPG 28.4, FG% .473, 3PT% .377, PPG 10.9, RPG 2.1, APG 4.6

15 Teaira McGowan

6'7" Sophomore Center

Troy - 24 minutes, 9 points, 13 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 4 blocks

DePaul - 17 minutes, 8 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal 

Washington - 29 minutes, 26 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 6 blocks

Baylor - 29 minutes, 10 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists, 2 steal, 1 block

  MPG 19.4, FG% .575, 3PT% .000, PPG 8.7, RPG 7.0, APG 0.2

3 Breanna Richardson

6'1" Senior Forward

  

Troy - 20 minutes, 10 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals

DePaul - 19 minutes, 12 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal 

Washington - 18 minutes, 2 points, 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 block

Baylor - 39 minutes, 8 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 block

   MPG 22.2, FG% .521, 3PT% .278, PPG 5.6, RPG 4.9, APG 1.3

00 Dominique Dillingham

5'9" Senior Guard

  

Troy - 11 minutes, 7 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist

DePaul - 31 minutes, 10 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists, 2 steals 

Washington - 27 minutes, 2 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks

Baylor - 13 minutes, 0 points, 2 rebounds, 0 assists

 MPG 28.3, FG% .383, 3PT% .368, PPG 6.7, RPG 2.7, APG 1.8

  

Mississippi State Bench

01 Blair Schaefer

5'7" Junior Guard

Troy - 26 minutes, 21 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists

DePaul - 26 minutes, 18 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 steal 

Washington - 22 minutes, 10 points, 4 rebounds, 0 assists

Baylor - 25 minutes, 5 points, 1 rebounds, 1 assists

   MPG 14.4, FG% .365, 3PT% .402, PPG 5.2, RPG 1.1, APG 0.5

45 Chinwe Okorie

6'5" Senior Center

Troy - 16 minutes, 6 points, 5 rebounds, 0 assists

DePaul - 20 minutes, 12 points, 9 rebounds, 0 assists 

Washington - 11 minutes, 4 points, 2 rebounds, 0 assists

Baylor - 17 minutes, 4 points, 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 steal

MPG 18.9, FG% .558, 3PT% .000, PPG 7.7, RPG 5.5, APG .1

13 Ketara Chapel

6'1" Senior Forward

Troy - 10 minutes, 4 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist

DePaul - 22 minutes, 6 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists 

Washington - 20 minutes, 6 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist

Baylor - 6 minutes

   MPG 16.2, FG% .484, 3PT% .600, PPG 3.0, RPG 2.3, APG 1.0

11 Roshunda Johnson

5'7" RS Junior Guard

Troy - 18 minutes, 13 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 steals

DePaul - 4 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebounds, 0 assists 

Washington - 7 minutes, 5 points, 0 rebounds, 1 assist

Baylor - 8 minutes, 2 points, 4 rebounds

   MPG 13.4, FG% .442, 3PT% .441, PPG 6.6, RPG 1.6, APG 0.6

MISSISSIPPI STATE TEAM STATS

 Game Analysis

It's difficult for me to not remember last years game between UConn and MSU and consider that blowout when analyzing this matchup. The 98-38 UConn win was so complete and so destructive of Mississippi State, no matter who UConn lost to graduation and how many of the players for MSU are coming back, there has to be some residual remaining in the confidence of the returning UConn players and the pain that MSU must still be feeling. Maybe Coach Schaefer can try to use it to his advantage.

For MSU, their offense is pretty simple. Their dynamic point guard, 5'5" Morgan William (no "s" but listen for how many times the announcers call her Williams) is a terrific player. She is quick and can take contact and finish in the paint when she does drive. Usually she will dribble at the top of the key, and look for an entry pass to their two-headed center, the starter 6'5" Chinwe Okorie and 6'7" Sophomore Tearia McGowan. McGowan will get the most minutes between the two. Or William will try to find a guard on the wing. In the games I watched, the problem was not getting the ball to the center but both centers actually finishing with a basket. So many missed chippies. McGowan did lead the Bulldogs in double-doubles and has improved a lot from last season.
  

But the Bulldogs offense is all about 6'1" junior guard/forward Victoria Vivians. She has taken over 300 more shots than anyone else on the team averaging 15 shots per game. She has also taken more than 100 more three point shots than anyone on her team averaging 7 three point shots per game. Vivians is the definition of a volume shooter. The problem for MSU is that she shoots only 37.6% from the field and 28.3% on threes. That is even worse than last season. She has not impressed me this year. The numbers don't lie.

Vivians seemed to do a lot of standing around the perimeter, waiting for a teammate to pass it to her. She does run the baseline occasionally, trying to rub her defenders off of screens. But you can rest assured that when the ball is in her hands she will either launce a three pointer or attempt a move to the basket. She has only 57 assists in 37 games. You've heard of a black hole? The ball goes to her but doesn't come out. And either will she, probably playing 40 minutes.

My favorite player on this Bulldog team is a player that plays very bulldoggish on every possession. Dominique Billingham is a 5'10" guard that is just all over the court on defense. She won't give you much on offense, but she is a real pest defending her (wo)man. She has taken a team high number of charges with 52, over 1 per game. So expect to see that at least once. Her problem is she is not a very good shooter.

Breanna Richardson, a 6'1" forward is the other starter and shares the position with Ketera Chapel, a 6'1" forward. Both solid defenders and decent around the basket on offense. They will end up with 40 minutes between them.

Along with McGowan and Chapel, two smallish guards at 5'7" come off the bench. Roshunda Johnson and Blair Schaefer add some outside shooting to the Bulldog offense. Their problem is getting open enough to hit their shots. As the tournament has gone on, it is getting harder and harder for these two to find open looks. I don't think that they can be very effective against the UConn pressure defense.

Defense is the Lady Bulldogs calling card. Their coach Vic Schaefer, was an assistant to Gary Blair at Texas &M when they won their national championship. As I heard too many times while watching their games, he is know as the Secretary of Defense. So how does he do it?

They play exclusively man to man. In the several games I watched, they didn't play zone once. They pressure the inbounds after a made basket almost every time. And they do a good job of that. Once the opponent inbounds they seem to release the pressure, quickly retreating to set up their man to man. I didn't see them use extended pressure too often. It's just not their strategy. They trust that their half court defense is good enough to stop the opponent most of the time.

In the man to man, they use their athleticism to defend hard. Against most of the teams they played, it's been very successful. They only allow 39.2% shooting from the field (up from last season) and 27.8% shooting on threes. Some of that can be related to their poor schedule and the lousy shooting teams in the SEC. What I did see was that they are prone to allowing back door cuts. Simple fake to the outside then cut to the basket type back door cuts. Their help defense seemed a little slow. Hey, if I saw it, I know Geno saw it. They force 19 turnovers per game and will need to have UConn hit those numbers. Unlikely.

Their two headed centers are decent post defenders,  but both are slow up and down the court and  Collier and Williams should be able to run them into exhaustion. Foul trouble could come into play for the two centers as they haven't come close to seeing a player with post moves like Collier and Williams.

I'm thinking that Williams will get the Vivians assignment. That should be a great one to watch as both players are so gifted physically. Power forwards Chapel and Richardson will match up with Samuelson. Both are 6'1" going against a 6'3" player that can hit threes. I would expect MSU to put Vivians on Samuelson in spite of the fact that Vivians is not a good defender. It's known that she is still  a work  progress on that side of the ball, making their coach crazy at times with her lack of defensive effort. She will lose Samuelson on the perimeter as she tries to take the easy way out and double the ball instead of staying home with Samuelson. This happened often last year.

UConn will look to take full advantage of their matchup advantages. Williams and Colliers quickness over the two MSU centers will be apparent early. Both will run the court, and bring them out to the perimeter to clear the lane for back cuts. It's been all about quickness over size all season for the Huskies. This game will be no different. They will screen like crazy, opening up the outside for their shooters.

On defense, I'm not sure how much zone UConn will play, but with a team as weak as Mississippi State is from the outside, it might be effective. But you can bet they will pressure William early and with great intensity. They don't have a lot of other great ball handlers so I would expect the pressure to either create turnovers or give MSU less time on the clock to run what little offense they have. 

UConn's advantages are vast on both sides of the ball.

 Final Prediction

Ok....toss out that performance against Baylor. MSU won that game because Morgan William had a once in a lifetime performance. She hit 13 of 22 shots. She only averages 7 shot attempts per game. And only 3 makes. And she hit 6-8 three pointers. She made only 14 coming into that game. And her three point percentage was only 31% before this game. Great for her. And UConn. I didn't want to see Baylor. But I am totally dismissing this performance.

What we will see is the same MSU team that has played all season. UConn's defense is good enough to make the Bulldog offense look a little scattered. And while the MSU defense is pretty good, this UConn offense will pick apart the Bulldog man-to-man coverage as they have with most teams this year.

The Huskies will shoot their 50% from the field, will have 20+ assists on their made baskets. They will hold MSU to 40% or less from the field and they won't come close to the 10-20 on threes they had against Baylor.

It won't be 60 points, but it won't be close.

UConn by 20+ and it could get worse if the MSU players get frustrated. They don't seem very disciplined to me.