Thursday, March 23, 2017

DoggyDaddy's UConn/UCLA Pre Game Report






UConn vs UCLA
Day: Saturday
Date: March 25th, 2017
Location: Bridgeport, Ct
Time: 1:30 
TV: ESPN






UConn Huskies                                             UCLA Bruins
           34-0                                                                   25-8

Overview

Prior Meetings

UConn leads 3-0

H: 1-0; A: 1-0; N: 1-0

11/17/98 W 113-102 A
12/23/99 W 106-64 H
12/21/14 W 86-50 N

UConn and UCLA have only met three times with the Huskies taking all three. They met last in December, 2014 where UConn hammered the Bruins 86-50. Several players on both teams played in that game. 

For UCLA, Korver started and played 32 minutes and led them in scoring with 14 points. She hit 2-4 three pointers. Off the bench Canada had 12 points and 4 assists in 26 minutes, Billings had 5 points and 6 rebounds in 12 minutes, Hersler played 3 scoreless minutes and Hayes had 2 scoreless minutes. They
all got to see what a great UConn team can do. 

For UConn, Nurse started and played 27 minutes scoring 11 points and handing out 6 assists. Chong had 8 points and 2 assists in 19 minutes and Williams had 12 points and 7 rebounds in her 16 minutes. Lawlor played 3 scoreless minutes.        


UCLA Overview
                                            
UCLA has had a nice season so far. They started out winning 8 of their first 9 games, losing only to then No. 2 Baylor on the road 84-70. That game was very competitive until the fourth quarter but they just couldn't handle the size of the Bears. Their next loss was to then No. 6 South Carolina 66-57. That game was tied at the half until once again the opponents size was too much for the Bruins. They do have a couple of wins against top 25 teams. They beat then No. 20 Colorado (long out of the top 25) 87-74, then No. 10 Oregon State 66-56,  then No. 16 Arizona State 69-60  and then No. 8 Stanford 85-76 and then No. 9 Washington. Overall, they were 5-5 vs top 25 teams. They come into this game winning 8 of their last 9 losing in the PAC12 tournament to then No. 6 Oregon State 63-53. As you can see by the scores,  they were never blown out of any games. That's the sign of a tough minded team and good coaching.      

UConn Overview

UConn is coming off another well played game against Syracuse to reach the Sweet Sixteen. You can read about that game in my UConn/Syracuse Post Game report. They are on a real roll the last three games, averaging over 100 points per game in those outings. Their assists to turnover numbers off the charts. Hands down the best passing team I have ever seen.  

Comparative Team Statistic

Leader in Bold
                                            UConn                                          UCLA
                                       
                                              87.7              PPG                     74.2
                                              54.1        Defensive PPG          63.1
                                              33.6        Scoring Margin          11.1
                                              52.8        Field Goal %              41.3 
                                              34.7        Defensive FG%          38.4
                                              40.3        Three Point %            30.4
                                              27.1        Defensive 3PT%        32.6 
                                              79.0        Free Throw %            71.2 
                                              39.2        Rebounds/game        40.3 
                                              23.9        Assists per game       15.2 
                                              12.0        Turnover per game    12.0
                                                2.0        Assists/TO ratio           1.3
                                              10.2        Steals per game        10.2  
                                                5.0        Blocks per game          5.1 
                                                         

Another stat comparison that gives you a good idea on how this game will probably play out. Just look at the shooting percentages. Only the low number of turnovers could keep this one close.

UCONN

UConn Starters


Katie Lou  Samuelson
33 Katie Lou Samuelson
6'3" Sophomore Guard/Forward

Albany - 33 minutes, 15 points, 3 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals
Syracuse - 35 minutes 23 points, 5 rebounds 4 assists, 1 steal  

MPG 31.1, FG% .492, 3PT% .430, FT% .840, PPG 20.9, RPG 3.8, APG 3.3


24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Sophomore Forward/Guard

Albany - 28 minutes, 24 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks
Syracuse - 28 minutes 17 points, 7 rebounds 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks

MPG 29.7, FG% .693, 3PT% .419, FT% .836, PPG 20.2, RPG 8.9, APG 2.2



15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Junior Forward

Albany - 27 minutes, 20 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals, 1 block 
Syracuse - 32 minutes 23 points, 6 rebounds 5 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks


MPG 28.2, FG% .577, 3PT% .167, FT% .725, PPG 13.7, RPG 8.4, APG 5.3



11 Kia Nurse
6' Junior Guard
Albany - 24 minutes, 24 points, 0 rebounds, 3 assists
Syracuse - 34 minutes, 29 points, 1 rebound, 6 assists

MPG 30.0, FG% .480, 3PT% .455, FT% .864, PPG 13.1, RPG 2.2, APG 4.0

12 Saniya Chong
5'8" Senior Guard

Albany - 31 minutes, 6 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals
Syracuse - 31 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 7 assists



MPG 30.3, FG% .460, 3PT% .377, FT% .804, PPG 7.9, RPG 2.9, APG 4.0




UConn Bench


Crystal  Dangerfield
5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Freshman Guard

Albany - 29 minutes, 16 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 block
Syracuse - 23 minutes, 2 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal


PPG 24.5, FG% .408 3PT% .329, FT% .625, PPG 6.5, RPG 2.4, APG 3.9


51 Natalie Butler
6'5" RS Junior Center



Albany - 15 minutes, 8 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks
Syracuse - 8 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound

MPG 16.1, FG% .500, 3PT% .000, FT% .732, PPG 5.6, RPG 5.0, APG 1.1

Molly  Bent
10 Molly Bent
5'9" Freshman Guard

Albany - 5 minutes
Syracuse - 3 minutes

MPG 9.5 FG% .303, 3PT% .333, FT% .625, PPG 1.1, RPG 1.4, APG 1.3


Kyla  Irwin
25 Kyla Irwin
6'2" Freshman Forward

Albany - 5 minutes, 3 points, 1 assist
Syracuse - 4 minutes

MPG 8.0, FG% .462, 3PT% .353, FT% .714, PPG 2.4, RPG 1.4, APG .5




20 Tierney Lawlor
5'7" Senior Guard

Albany - 2 minutes, 1 steal
Syracuse - 3 minutes, 1 assist

MPG 3.4, FG% .000, 3PT% .000, FT% .500, PPG 0.1, RPG .4, APG .1



UCLA
                     Cori Close                  
  Head Coach
Cori Close

Cori Close was named head women’s basketball coach at UCLA on April 21, 2011, and is currently 98-69 (.587) overall. She enters her sixth season at the helm of the Bruins’ program in 2016-17. Close was named the 2016 United States Marine Corps/WBCA NCAA Division I Region 5 Co-Coach of the Year (with Arizona State’s Charli Turner Thorne).

Close guided the Bruins to a 26-9 overall record in 2015-16, including a third-place finish in the Pac-12 with a 14-4 record (the No. 1 conference in the country in RPI) and guided the Bruins to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 1999.

She led the Bruins to their first WNIT Championship in school history in UCLA’s first-ever appearance in the postseason tournament with a 62-60 win over West Virginia in Charleston, W.Va., on April 4, 2015. It marked UCLA’s first postseason title of any kind since winning the Pac-10 Tournament in 2006.

This is the first head coaching assignment for Close, who has worked as associate head coach or assistant on teams that have advanced to the NCAA Tournament in 16 seasons, won at least 20 games in 16 of the previous 18 seasons and won or shared a total of 11 conference championships.

Close, who served on the Bruin coaching staff in 1994 and 1995, returns to Westwood after spending seven seasons as associate head coach at Florida State University. Considered one of the top offensive minds in the game, Close helped guide the Seminoles into a nationally-recognized program in her time. FSU ranked among the nation’s top 30 teams in scoring, field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage her last two seasons.


UCLA Starters

Canada, Jordin
03 Jordan Canada
5'6" Junior Guard

Boise State -  39 minutes, 15 points, 5 rebounds 16 assists, 4 steals
Texas A&M - 27 minutes, 12 points, 5 rebounds, 11 assists

MPG 34.6, FG% .431, 3PT% .364 PPG 17.9 RPG 5.3, APG 6.9


Monique Billings
25 Monique Billings
6'4" Junior Forward

Boise State -  29 minutes, 19 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks
Texas A&M - 27 minutes, 12 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist

MPG 31.3, FG% .469, 3PT% .000 PPG 16.8 RPG 10.6, APG .9


Burke, Kennedy
22 Kennedy Burke
6'1" Sophomore Guard

Boise State -  33 minutes, 14 points, 10 rebounds, 1 assists, 3 blocks, 3 steals
Texas A&M - 36 minutes, 9 points, 5 rebounds, 9 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks 

MPG 28.9, FG% .461, 3PT% .290 PPG 12.5 RPG 4.9, APG 1.7


Korver, Kari
02 Kari Korver
5'9" Senior Guard

Boise State -  18 minutes, 9 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 block
Texas A&M - 28 minutes, 21 points, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 7-10 on threes

MPG 28.8, FG% .344, 3PT% .325 PPG 8.0 RPG 3.0, APG 2.1


Hayes, Kelli
23 Kelly Hayes
6' Junior Guard

Boise State -  33 minutes, 8 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists
Texas A&M - 24 minutes, 4 points, 3 rebounds, 1 block

MPG 26.9, FG% .391, 3PT% .237 PPG 5.8 RPG 4.1, APG 1.4


UCLA Bench

Kornet, Nicole
00 Nicole Kornet
6' RS Senior Guard

Boise State -  19 minutes, 14 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 2 steals
Texas A&M - 21 minutes, 4 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 1 steal

MPG 20.7, FG% .304, 3PT% .275 PPG 7.8 RPG 3.8, APG .9


Hersler, Paulina
24 Paulina Hersler
6'3" Junior Forward

Boise State -  12 minutes, 3 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist
Texas A&M - 20 minutes, 9 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist  


MPG 14.1, FG% .330, 3PT% .281 PPG 3.3 RPG 2.6, APG .3



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Game Analysis

I did watch a few UCLA games this year and went back and watched their game against Texas A&M last week. It was a difficult game to use to judge UCLA by as A&M was just so terrible, and most of that was not due to anything UCLA did. 

Their best player is clearly Jordin Canada. She is the leading scorer, leading assistor, and plays like a coach on the floor. She loves to use screens to get to the basket. Even though she averages almost 7 assists per game, there were times when she took too much on her shoulders, taking bad shots or ill advised drives to the basket. Canada has a great handle and uses her left hand well. You WILL see some spectacular drives and finishes from her. She is really good. The good news for UConn is they just played a similar player in Syracuse's Alexis Peterson. It should help them defend Canada. 

Monique Billings is their second best player and their best post. She is a terrific shot blocker and rebounder. Long arms and a quick jumper, her matchup with either Williams or Collier will be fun to watch. But she is a black hole as she averages .9 assists per game. That kind of post usually struggles against the Huskie defense. Defensively she is an excellent shot blocker. She will get a couple in this game.  

There is a big drop off in talent after that. They start three more guards. Kari Korver (cousin of NBA player Kyle Korver) has had some nice shooting games but she only shoots 32.5% on threes for the season. But UConn will have to pay attention to her. Kennedy Burke is a big guard (6'1") and the only other double digit scorer along with Canada and Billings.  She has a nice mid-range game but she is not good shooter outside the arc. Kelly Hayes is the other starter. She really struggles from the field and three point land. But she is a good distributor of the ball and a very smart player. I know, I was pretty negative about these three players. So, I'll add that they are solid defensive players. It's the best I have. That being said, some of the highlights (players never miss in highlights), all three of these players have had good shooting games.                 

UConn has an advantage in the benches, even with both teams only going 7 deep. The two players for UCLA bench, Nicole Kornet and Paulina Hersler, are really poor shooter. At 6'3", Hersler brings some size off the bench but not much else.   

UCLA uses primarily a man-to-man defense, but they don't seem to press or put a lot of on the ball pressure. Their players are solid on the defensive side of the ball. And they do a nice job of switching. They will have to help Billings on the inside. UConn will try to take her away from the basket and then take advantage of whoever she isn't guarding in the post. Samuelson will have a big advantage as will Williams. Nothing new there.

UConn has a great advantage in team speed. They will pressure UCLA trying to get the ball out of Canada's hands and into the other ball handlers. Although the Bruins don't turn the ball over a lot, they haven't met a defense like UConn's.
UConn has the advantage at every position, even as good as Canada and Billings are and will play to those strengths. Look for the usual, a lot of high/low passes, quick whip-around passes to get an open three, drives to the hope with kick-outs. Just too much for UCLA to handle.
      
Final Prediction


I have to tell the truth. I've been a UCLA fan for a long time. But it was the men's team that I followed as a young teen. It started with the remarkable young man Lew Alcindor, so tall and so graceful and so unique. And the hippie Bill Walton, near and dear to my heart. Many years of great play and great coaching by the greatest men's coach of all time, John Wooden. The great play of Connecticut native Rocket Rod Foster. I even had a UCLA sweatshirt.  

But, this is a different time and a different gender. I haven't been a fan of the UCLA women's program as I have the men's team. But I have somewhat followed them over the years so my pre game report was not difficult to put together.

UConn is just at a different level than a team like UCLA. They have two terrific players in Billings and Canada. But the rest of the team are just fair players. They will really struggle against the Huskies. UConn is great at shutting down the best players and if they can't, they shut down everyone else. No different in this game. 

UConn will probably not hit 100 points. They might not hit 90 either. But their defense will shut down the Bruins. I'm thinking a similar score to the last time they met. 80's to 50's.

A 30+ point win in this one.    


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