UCONN vs Notre Dame
Sunday
December 3rd, 2017
Place: XL Center
Time: 4:00
TV: ESPN
No. 1/1 UConn Huskies No. 2/3 Notre Dame
6-0 7-0
Prior Meetings
UConn - Notre Dame (35-11)
H: 16-4; A: 11-4; N: 8-3
1/18/96 W 87-64 A
2/24/96 W 86-79 H
3/5/96 W 71-54 H
2/9/97 W 72-49 H
3/4/97 W 86-77 H
12/6/97 W 78-59 A
2/21/98 W 73-61 H
3/2/98 W 73-53 N
12/8/98 W 106-81 A
3/2/99 W 96-75 N
2/26/00 W 77-59 H
1/15/01 L 76-92 A
2/24/96 W 86-79 H
3/5/96 W 71-54 H
2/9/97 W 72-49 H
3/4/97 W 86-77 H
12/6/97 W 78-59 A
2/21/98 W 73-61 H
3/2/98 W 73-53 N
12/8/98 W 106-81 A
3/2/99 W 96-75 N
2/26/00 W 77-59 H
1/15/01 L 76-92 A
3/6/01 W 78-76 H
3/30/01 L 75-90 N
1/21/02 W 80-53 H
1/20/03 W 72-53 A
2/23/03 W 77-59 H
1/13/04 L 51-66 A
1/12/05 W 67-50 A
1/30/05 L 59-65 H
3/7/05 W 67-54 N
2/19/06 W 79-64 A
3/5/06 W 71-60 N
1/27/07 W 64-47 H
1/27/08 W 81-64 A
2/22/09 W 76-66 H
1/16/10 W 70-46 H
3/1/10 W 76-51 A
3/8/10 W 59-44 N
1/8/11 W 79-76 A
2/19/11 W 78-57 H
3/8/11 W 73-64 H
4/3/11 L 72-63 N
1/7/12 L 74-67 (ot) A
2/27/12 L 72-59 H
3/6/12 W 63-54 H
3/6/12 W 63-54 H
4/1/12 L 83-75 (ot) N
1/5/13 L 73-72 H
3/4/13 L 96-87 (3ot) A
3/12/13 L 61-59 H
4/7/13 W 83-65 N
4/8/13 W 79-58 N
12/6/14 W 76-58 A
4/7/15 W 63-53 N
12/5/15 W 91-81 H
12/7/16 W 72-61 A
Highlights from Last Years Game
Overview
UConn vs. Notre Dame. Both Undefeated. 1 vs 2 again. In women's college basketball, there is other no rivalry like this right now.
While the overall advantage is 35-11 UConn, there was a period where Notre Dame dominated the rivalry. At one point Notre Dame won 7 of 8 games between April of 2011 and March of 2013. But since then, things have changed again. UConn has won the last 6 games between the two teams. And it hasn't been that close with the margins being 18, 21, 18, two years ago National Championship UConn won by 10 points and last two years regular season matchup was 10 and 11 points.
Notre Dame comes into this game at 7-0, defeating No. 25 Michigan 83-63 in their last outing and prior to that beating No. 3 South Carolina 92-85. Before that they beat Mt. St. Mary's 121-65, Western Kentucky 78-65, No. 18 Oregon 72-67, East Tennessee State 77-46 and No. 17 South Florida 76-66. That's 4 ranked teams in their 7 games. I haven't checked every teams schedule, but I would beat only UConn has played as many ranked teams this early in the season.
UConn is coming off a win against Nevada, the homecoming game for Gabby Williams, winning 88-57. Before that they handily defeated Michigan State 96-62. They started the season with four consecutive wins over ranked teams beating then No. 5 UCLA 78-60, over then No. 15 Maryland 97-72, over then No. 10 Stanford 82-47 and over then No. 20 California 82-47.
Samuelson is expected back for the Notre Dame game and that is a "game changer" for the Huskies. With the possibility of Camara available the rotation is suddenly a lot deeper. And that can't be good for The Irish.
Comparative Team Statistic
Leader in Bold
UConn Notre Dame
86.5 PPG 85.6
58.5 Defensive PPG 65.3
58.5 Defensive PPG 65.3
28.0 Scoring Margin 20.3
51.0 Field Goal % 49.2
35.7 Defensive FG% 38.5
35.7 Defensive FG% 38.5
38.2 Three Point % 30.7
29.7 Defensive 3PT% 30.9
69.1 Free Throw % 71.3 29.7 Defensive 3PT% 30.9
41.2 Rebounds/game 46.4
21.3 Assists per game 16.7
15.3 Turnover per game 13.4
1.4 Assists/TO ratio 1.2
12.2 Steals per game 6.6
4.0 Blocks per game 4.1
UCONN
Min - 4.7, FG% .000, 3PT% .000, FT% .000, 0 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0 apg, 0 blk, 0 stls
UConn Starters
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Junior Forward
MPG - 30.7, FG% .486, 3PT% .313, FT% .750, 14.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.3 apg, 8 blks, 18 stls
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Senior Forward
MPG - 29.0, FG% .593, 3PT% .000, FT% .643, 12.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.2 apg, 2 blks, 19 stls
11 Kia Nurse
6' Senior Guard
Min - 32.8, FG% .569%, 3PT% .586, FT .778, 16.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1 blks, 5 stls
5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Sophomore Guard
MPG - 32.5, FG% .469, 3PT% .484, FT% .692%, 14.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 5.2 apg, 0 blks, 12 stls
23 Azura Stevens
6'6" Junior Forward
MPG - 25.8, FG% .571, 3PT% .176, FT .588, 14.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 3.3 apg, 10 blks, 8 stls
33 Katie Lou Samuelson
6'3" Junior Guard/Forward
MPG - 23, FG% .455, 3PT% .250, FT% .917, 16.51 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1 blk, 4 stls
UConn Bench
3 Megan Walker
6'1" Freshman Guard/Forward
Min - 17.8 FG% .400, 3PT% .273, FT% .556, 6.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 2 blk, 3 stls
32 Batouly Camara
6'2" Sophomore Forward
DNP
2 Andra Espinoza-Hunter
5'11" Freshman Guard
Min - 8.8, FG% .500, 3PT% .500, FT% .000, 3.5 ppg, .3 rpg, .3 apg, 0 blk, 1 stls
10 Molly Bent
5'9" Sophomore Guard
Min - 7.2, FG% .500, 3PT% .000, FT% .000, .8 ppg, .6 rpg, .2 apg, 0 blk, 1 stls
25 Kyla Irwin
6'2" Sophomore Forward
Min - 8.6, FG% .500, 3PT% .250, FT% .000, 1.4 ppg, .8 rpg, .6 apg, 0 blk, 1 stls
4 Mikayla Coombs
5'8" Freshman Guard
34 Alexi Gordon
6' Freshman Guard
Min - 1.5, FG% .000, 3PT% .000, FT% .000, 0 ppg, .3 rpg, 0 apg, 0 blk, 0 stls
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Coach
Muffet McGraw
McGraw is considered by many the 2nd best active coach in WCBB. It's hard to argue that based on the accomplishments of her program. She is a terrific recruiter, a fine tactician and a wonderful motivator of young women. Notre Dame certainly knows that and in July 2012, she signed a landmark 10-year contract extension that will keep her coaching at Notre Dame through the 2021-22 campaign.
The past 22 seasons (1995-96 to the present) have been the most successful in Notre Dame's history.
If you want to read some terrific detail about her career, here is the link to her Notre Dame Bio.
If you want to read some terrific detail about her career, here is the link to her Notre Dame Bio.
Notre Dame Starters
2 Arike Ogunbowale
5'8" Junior Guard
MPG - 33.1, FG% .487, 3PT% .367, FT .786, 20.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1 blks, 9 stls
5 Jackie Young
6' Sophomore Guard
MPG - 33.1, FG% .506, 3PT% .000, FT .902, 17.9 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.7 apg, 5 blks, 6 stls
Jessica Shepard
6'4" Junior Center
MPG - 26.6, FG% .529, 3PT% .000, FT .613, 13.0 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.6 apg, 3 blks, 4 stls
3 Marina Mabrey
5'11" Junior Guard
MPG - 29.6, FG% .378, 3PT% .200, FT .750, 10.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.4 apg, 2 blks, 9 stls
Lili Thomspson
5'7" Grad Student Guard
MPG - 28.7, FG% .349, 3PT% .500, FT .800, 5.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 5.1 apg, 2 blks, 8 stls
Notre Dame Bench
33 Kathryn Westbeld
6'2" Junior Forward
MPG - 19.2, FG% .588, 3PT% .500, FT .500, 3.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0 blks, 2 stls
21 Kristina Nelson
6'4" Senior Forward/Center
MPG - 9.8, FG% .688, 3PT% .000, FT .000, 3.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, .7 apg, 6 blks, 3 stls
32 Danielle Patterson
MPG - 11.4, FG% .615, 3PT% .000, FT .462, 4.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, .2 apg, 3 blks, 1 stls
Out for the Season
30 Mikayla Vaughn
6'2" Freshman Forward
MPG - 11.4, FG% .615, 3PT% .000, FT .462, 4.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, .2 apg, 3 blks, 1 stls
Out for the Season
30 Mikayla Vaughn
6'3" Freshman Center
MPG - 13.2, FG% .622, 3PT% .000, FT% .000, 8.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, .7 apg, 7 blks, 3 stls
Game Analysis
Another game between the maybe the two best teams for the 2017-18 season and certainly the two best programs in WCBB.
Because they have played so often and so recently, you can get a better handle on how this game will turn out. UConn has four starters returning plus one off the bench and Notre Dame has two starters and three bench players returning. Lots of familiarity there.
And both have a few new faces that are making an impact to the team. That maybe makes these two teams the most talented in WCBB.
Offensively, Notre Dame will play their usual motion offense no matter who is in the lineup. They set tough off the ball screens, trying to get their shooters open. Notre Dame is going to be using every tactic they can to free their two best outside shooters. And that is Marina Mabrey and Arke Ogunbowale. The problem for Notre Dame is that Marbrey at 29.2% and Ogunbowale was at 23.3% before a big 4-6 game against Michigan in her last outing. Of course that doesn't mean Obunbowale won't continue her one game hot streak and Mabrey won't get hot against UConn. They certainly are capable. That being said they will have to hit threes at a high percentage for Notre Dame to compete in this game.
The Irish will also use the pick and roll with Nebraska transfer Jessica Shepard. They will really miss Lindsay Allen, who was excellent at this tactic. Westbeld can also find openings in the lane and is a consistent shooter from 12 feet and in but hasn't really regained her form since coming back form her ankle injury. That all being said, we all know that Notre Dame is a well coached and can play like a well-oiled offensive team and they showed that against South Carolina. But I don't see if I've seen to many one on one plays by the Irish. They are averaging only 17 assists per game. They are usually over 20.
Defensively, Notre Dame uses some trapping defenses but for the most part, they will play a switching man-to-man like UConn does. In the past what they have done best is get into the passing lanes to create turnovers. But this season they average only 6 steals per game. They will miss Briana Turner, who did a nice job protecting the basket and they will hope that the big bodied Kristine Nelson and Danielle Patterson can help fill the lane. Freshmen Mikayla Vaughn is out for the season after being injured in practice. She tore an ACL. Very tough break for this young woman.
UConn will do what they do best offensively. They will run their own motion offense, looking for post entry passes to Collier, Williams and the revived Stevens. UConn will also use their defense to spark their offense. This version of UConn relies a lot on the three point shot with Samuelson, Nurse, Dangerfield, and Collier all able to hit the open three. UConn will set screens to get them open and also use their terrific ball movement to do the same.
Defensively, look for UConn to pressure Notre Dame. Not necessarily to turn over, although that will be a big part of their defense, but more to take time off the clock forcing Notre Dame into bad shots. Here is another place Notre Dame will miss the graduated Allen. The Irish really only have the one point guard in graduate student Lili Thompson, the transfer from Stanford and she has recently been removed from the starting lineup and replaced by Westbeld, so Mabrey is the starting point guard. Mabrey is a decent ball handler but could have real trouble with the UConn pressure defense.
For this game, I'm putting together a player by player matchup. It's tough to predict because both teams have questions on who is starting and even who will play. But I'm going to take a stab at it.
Point guard - 5'7" Lili Thompson vs 5'5" Crystal Dangerfield
Lili was moved out of the starting lineup for the Michigan game, but I think she still may start against UConn. ND needs the ball handling. Lili is a pretty good player and is the only point guard on Notre Dame. She has hit 6-12 threes, so you know she is capable at hitting them but she doesn't take that many. She does a nice job of distributing the basketball averaging over 5 per game. I was never impressed with her defense at Stanford and going against Dangerfield is bad news for ND. Crystal has been terrific this year. What an improvement from last season. She will force Thompson to guard her from the outside and then blow by her to hit her pull up jumper or find a teammate for an easy basket. Dangerfield's defense has been terrific as well and she will force Thompson into some turnovers.
Advantage UConn
Shooting Guard - 5'10" Marina Mabrey vs 6' Kia Nurse
Mabrey has really struggled this year. The usually great three point shooter can't seem to get that going. Everyone will remember her freshman year game against the Huskies where she had 21 points in the first half before Jefferson shut her down. She seems a step slower (conditioning issue?) and she was never a speed merchant before that. All of this has impacted her confidence. If she hits a few threes early, that could turn things around for her. But I would think that Kia will take on the responsibility of covering Mabrey with some really tough physical defense. If Westbeld ends up starting, Dangerfield will guard Mabrey and remember what Jefferson did to her 2 years ago? Could see the same result. Mabrey might struggle covering Nurse. Kia is too quick for her. And I'm not sure she will be able to get through the screens that free up Nurse for her deadly three point shot. I'm betting there will be some trash talking quietly done between these two. Nurse has blown hot and cold this year on offense (mostly hot), but she is always playing great defense and giving full effort.
Advantage UConn
Swing Forward/Guard - 5'8" Arike Ogunbowale vs 5'11" Gabby Williams
These two don't match up in positions, but you can bet Geno will want his best defender on Ogunbowale. Arike is the leading scorer for the Irish and is really fearless on offense. She has the green light from Muffett and will shoot as soon as she sees an opening sometimes to the detriment of the team. At 5'8" she is not a big player, but she plays like one. Williams is just too tough in the post for Ogunbowale so don't expect her to cover Williams. Although I don't see who else will unless Young moves to cover her. Gabby will post up whenever she can and if she can hit the mid range shot, it will be a long night for whoever is guarding her. Williams will cheat off Ogunbowale at times to stick her hand in the passing lane and that can be dangerous for the Huskies. But with Ogunbowale struggling from three point land prior to the Michigan game, UConn might see if she is still hot before adjusting.
Advantage UConn
Forward - 6' Jackie Young vs 6'3" Katie Lou Samuelson
First game back for Katie Lou, so I'm not sure she will be guarding Young but if she is cleared to go, I believe she can use her height advantage to neutralize her. Young is a terrific player who has made as big a jump from her freshman to sophomore season as Dangerfield has done for UConn. Not a threat from outside the arc, she is so athletic she can get to the basket and either make the shot or get fouled with ease. She will be a handful for anyone that guards her. Samuelson is just coming back from her ankle injury but we all know what she can do. Her game has really expanded this season before the injury and her defense has been a difference maker. Katie Lou will give Young a lot of trouble when she has the ball with her quick three pointer or hard drive to the basket. And she will post up almost every player that guards her in this game.
Advantage UConn
Center - 6'4" Jessica Shepard vs 6'1" Napheesa Collier
I'm sure Shepard remembers the 1-13 she had two years ago when UConn played Nebraska. It was a nightmare for her. But Stewart, who tortured her in that game is not here. But Collier is. I'm not sure if Napheesa will guard her much because Stevens will play plenty of minutes at center. Shepard has not taken a three pointer this year but don't be surprised if she does this game. Her main offensive game is using her very large lower body to move players as she posts up and makes a strong move to the basket. She is too slow to cover Collier so ND will have to help her out. Collier will use her quickness to drive by Shepard or step back for an open jumper. The Michigan post had her way with Shepard and she is no Collier. And Napheesa will run, run, run until Shepard cries uncle.
Advantage UConn
Bench - 6'4" Kristine Nelson, (6'2" Kathryn Westbeld or Lili Thompson) , 6'2" Danielle Peterson vs (6'6" Azure Stevens or 6'3" Kati Lou Samuelson), 6'1" Megan Walker, 6'2" Batouly Camara
Not a real guard among them unless Thompson comes off the bench, but it's clear who has the advantage here. Even if it's Stevens or Samuelson the only player off the bench, it would be advantage UConn. But add in the improving freshman Walker and UConn's bench has the advantage. I'm not even sure that Vaughn or Peterson will see much time. And Vaughn might not be playing due to a possible injury situation. Stevens has been playing like an AA the last few games and is close to averaging a double-double. She also has 10 blocks and 8 steals, so Geno's hammering at her defense is paying off. There is no one on Notre Dame that can guard her.
Advantage UConn
Coaching - Geno vs Muffet. Two of the best coaches in WCBB. Geno though gets the nod. He is just the best.
Advantage UConn
Final Prediction
Whew.....lots of info to digest. I have UConn with an advantage in every one of my matchups. Yeah, a little UConn homerism. But really, it's not that much of a stretch.
Last year I predicted a 7 point win for UConn, and it ended up at 11. So, what has changed?
Well, for one, All-American Briana Turner won't be playing, out with an injury for the season. Last year she was the leading scorer for ND with 16 points and had 12 rebounds and 3 assist and 2 blocks. Also not there was honorable mention Lindsay Allen who graduated. She was the second leading scorer for ND in this game with 11 points and she added 8 assists. That is some big time production - gone. On a smaller scale but still pretty important was the loss of Mychal Johnson, the only other point guard on the team. Thompson can't play 40 minutes and Mabrey is her back up and will struggle against the UConn defense. So, that is what is gone. What is new? Well, ND was able to convince the NCAA to allow Shepard to play this year. As I mentioned, she had a horrible game against UConn two years ago, but she is a more mature player. I don't think she will be intimidated. I mentioned Thompson as well and Young enters the starting lineup as a potential star. The other new players are Mikayla Vaughn and Danielle Patterson, a freshman center and freshman forward. Vaughn tore her ACL and is out for the season and I don't think Patterson will play much in this game.
UConn brings back four starters from that game and loses only Saniya Chong, who only played 19 minutes in that game scoring 3 points. The trio of Williams, Samuelson and Collier scored 57 points and had 20 rebounds. Did I mention they will be all back for this game? So, what is different? Well, Dangerfield, who played 24 minutes and scored only 4 points with 2 assists and FIVE turnovers, is not the same player. Not even close. And they add potential AA Azura Stevens to the rotation. And the No. 1 recruit from 2017 Megan Walker. UConn is just a much better team than last year.
So, the final was 72-61 last year. With all the changes on both rosters and all the returning players as well, I see a different outcome. UConn is a much better team and I don't believe that Notre Dame is as good as last year. The matchups don't favor ND in trying to compete against this UConn team. In fact, this game could get ugly.
The wildcard is the fact that this IS Notre Dame and McGraw is a terrific coach that will have some kind of plan to slow down this UConn juggernaut. I'm sure she will try to slow down the game and keep it as close as possible and find a way to win at the end. It just won't be effective. Too much offensive talent on UConn. And I like UConn's ability to take away the top offensive threat and that means Ogunbowale. With the injury to Vaughn I can see McGraw going small with Westbeld playing center, but that is a tough assignment with all the talented size that UConn has.
I also like to look at the scores for each team, who they played and the margin of victory. Just based on the 5 point win against Oregon State that could have gone either way, the 10 point margin against South Florida, a team UConn would beat by 30-40 and the 13 point win against Western Kentucky, you can see that this is not the most talented Notre Dame team of recent times.
Any way I look at it, I see a pretty good size UConn win. I'll knock it down a little for the ND mystique, and say UConn by 18+.
Last year I predicted a 7 point win for UConn, and it ended up at 11. So, what has changed?
Well, for one, All-American Briana Turner won't be playing, out with an injury for the season. Last year she was the leading scorer for ND with 16 points and had 12 rebounds and 3 assist and 2 blocks. Also not there was honorable mention Lindsay Allen who graduated. She was the second leading scorer for ND in this game with 11 points and she added 8 assists. That is some big time production - gone. On a smaller scale but still pretty important was the loss of Mychal Johnson, the only other point guard on the team. Thompson can't play 40 minutes and Mabrey is her back up and will struggle against the UConn defense. So, that is what is gone. What is new? Well, ND was able to convince the NCAA to allow Shepard to play this year. As I mentioned, she had a horrible game against UConn two years ago, but she is a more mature player. I don't think she will be intimidated. I mentioned Thompson as well and Young enters the starting lineup as a potential star. The other new players are Mikayla Vaughn and Danielle Patterson, a freshman center and freshman forward. Vaughn tore her ACL and is out for the season and I don't think Patterson will play much in this game.
UConn brings back four starters from that game and loses only Saniya Chong, who only played 19 minutes in that game scoring 3 points. The trio of Williams, Samuelson and Collier scored 57 points and had 20 rebounds. Did I mention they will be all back for this game? So, what is different? Well, Dangerfield, who played 24 minutes and scored only 4 points with 2 assists and FIVE turnovers, is not the same player. Not even close. And they add potential AA Azura Stevens to the rotation. And the No. 1 recruit from 2017 Megan Walker. UConn is just a much better team than last year.
So, the final was 72-61 last year. With all the changes on both rosters and all the returning players as well, I see a different outcome. UConn is a much better team and I don't believe that Notre Dame is as good as last year. The matchups don't favor ND in trying to compete against this UConn team. In fact, this game could get ugly.
The wildcard is the fact that this IS Notre Dame and McGraw is a terrific coach that will have some kind of plan to slow down this UConn juggernaut. I'm sure she will try to slow down the game and keep it as close as possible and find a way to win at the end. It just won't be effective. Too much offensive talent on UConn. And I like UConn's ability to take away the top offensive threat and that means Ogunbowale. With the injury to Vaughn I can see McGraw going small with Westbeld playing center, but that is a tough assignment with all the talented size that UConn has.
I also like to look at the scores for each team, who they played and the margin of victory. Just based on the 5 point win against Oregon State that could have gone either way, the 10 point margin against South Florida, a team UConn would beat by 30-40 and the 13 point win against Western Kentucky, you can see that this is not the most talented Notre Dame team of recent times.
Any way I look at it, I see a pretty good size UConn win. I'll knock it down a little for the ND mystique, and say UConn by 18+.
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