Thursday, December 7, 2023

Doggy's UConn/North Carolina Pregame Report

 





No. 17 UConn Huskies               VS              No. 24 North Carolina     5-3                                                                            6-3

Date: Sunday 
 December 10th, 2023
Uncasville, Connecticut
Mohegan Sun Arena
Time: 5:00
TV: ESPN

Prior Meetings

NORTH CAROLINA vs UCONN
 
UCONN LEADS 7-5 H: 4-1 | A; 2-2 | N: 1-2
 
01/12/80 UNC 84, UConn 51 Chapel Hill, N.C. 
03/26/94 #4 UNC 81, #3 UConn 69 Piscataway, N.J. 
12/02/95 #2 UConn 77, #24 UNC 62 Richmond, Va. 
11/15/01 #1 UConn 94, UNC 74 Storrs, Conn. 
11/21/04 #9 UNC 71, #4 UConn 65 Raleigh, N.C. 
12/05/05 #7 UNC 77, #8 UConn 54 Hartford, Conn. 
01/15/07 #2 UNC 82, #6 UConn 76 Chapel Hill, N.C. 
01/21/08 #1 UConn 82, #3 UNC 71 Storrs, Conn. 
01/19/09 #1 UConn 88, #2 UNC 58 Chapel Hill, N.C. 
01/09/10 #1 UConn 88, #7 UNC 47 Storrs, Conn. 
01/17/11 #3 UConn 83, #10 UNC 57 Chapel Hill, N.C. 
01/16/12 #3 UConn 86, #24 UNC 35 Storrs, Conn
 
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North Carolina Season to Date

It's been a tough year for the Tar Heels. You could see it coming. They started the season against really weak teams, beating Gardner-Webb 102-49, Davidson 74-70, Hampton 62-32, Elon 68-39 and Vermont 54-51. The Davidson win by only 4 points and the Vermont win by only 3 points should have sent out red flashing warning signals. 

They lost their next three games to No. 16 Kansas State 63-56, Florida Gulf Coast 65-64 and to their credit played South Carolina tough losing 65-58.

In their last game they beat UNC Greensboro 81-66

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Comparative Team Statistics
(leader in bold)

                                                 UConn                                       North Carolina 

                                              77.6        PPG                            68.8
                                              65.8        Defensive PPG            55.6
                                              11.8        Scoring Margin           13.2
                                              48.2        Field Goal %               40.6
                                              38.1        Defensive FG%           37.2 
                                              34.5        Three Point %             26.6
                                              31.6        Defensive 3PT%          32.1
                                              72.9        Free Throw %             66.5
                                              37.4        Rebounds/game           37.8
                                                2.9        Rebounding Margin      2.8 
                                              15.8        Assists per game          12.2
                                              14.3        Turnover per game       11.4
                                                1.1        Assists/TO ratio             1.1
                                                9.0        Steals per game              8.9
                                                4.3        Blocks per game            4.4

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North Carolina Starters

Day to Day


 

Game Analysis

North Caorlina has had their own injury bugs, especially among their big players. 

Former UConn target Ciera Toomey, a 6'4" freshman forward is out for the season after summer surgery and is still recovering.

Teonni Key, a 6'4" RS sophomore has been out all season. I haven't been able to find out exactly why other than she was wearing a walking boot. She missed the season two years ago with an ACL injury. 

Laila Hull, a 6'1" freshman guard is also out for the season. She was Miss Indiana last year. She beat out Ashlynn Shade for the honor.

These are three important players for the Tar Heels. And there is more.   

The Tar Heels were also missing guards Kayla McPherson and Paulina Paris in their last game, as they are both considered “day-to-day” with undisclosed injuries.

McPherson has been hampered by injuries during her early UNC women’s basketball career but has emerged into a starting role over the last stretch of games.

After being one of the Tar Heels’ biggest contributors to start the season, Paris has seen her role decrease over the last four contests. 

If they are out, it will impact UNC's depth for sure. It's a familiar story for UConn fans.  

So, both teams have injury issues and short benches. Some might call this a battle of attrition. Kinda harsh though. The question is how they match up with the players that can play.

For this game I'm going to go with the players UNC used in their game on Wednesday against UNC Greensboro.

The Tar Heels are similar in size as UConn. They start 5'8" Senior guard Deja Kelly, 5'10" Sophomore guard Indya Nivar, 6' Grad Student guard Lexi Donarski, 6'1" Senior forward Alyssa Ustby and 6'3" Senior forward Maria Gakdeng. 

Who is starting for UConn? Well, for sure we know it will be 5'11" Muhl, 6' Bueckers, 6'3" Edwards. So who for this game? I think Geno really likes what 5'10" Shade brings to the table so I'm thinking she starts. That 5th starter is a tough one. He might want Griffin to guard the Tar Heels leading rebound Alyssa Ustby. They are similar in size and might be too much for one of the UConn guards is Arnold starts. But Geno really liked how the two freshman played so I'll bet he starts Shade and Arnold.

How will the game play out?

Deja Kelly is the leading scorer for UNC averaging 16.6 PPG. She takes by far the most shots on the team with 129. Her problem is her shooting percentages. She is only shooting 37.2% from the field and 26.7% on threes. Not a good shooter. 65.1% from the FT line. 

Alyssa Ustby is averaging 11.0 PPG and takes the second most shots on the game with 91. Lots of those are on putbacks off of offensive rebounds. She leads the team in rebounding at 8.4 RPG. And she has grabbed 31 offensive rebounds. at 6'1",  she plays like Griffin, bigger than her height. 

Maria Gakdeng is their big in the starting lineup. Averaging 10.9 PPG she is a good matchup for Aaliyah. She is shooting 71% from the field, so you know she takes most of her shots from right next to the basket. Second on the team in rebounding at 6.1 RPG.

Lexi Donarski is their fourth double digit scorer at 10.6 PPG. She had a season high 22 points against UNC Greensboro with 22 points on 6-8 shooting from deep. It increased her three point shooting percentage from 34% to 40%. She has had games where she shot 4-9, 3-6, 2-4 and now 6-8. But she has also had games where she was 2-6, 1-5, 1-8 and 3-9. Very streaky. 

Like UConn the fifth starter has been a revolving door. UNC has had 4 different players start in that spot. Who will it be? I just went with Indya Nivar as she started the previous game. She is averaing 6.6 PPG and 4.9 RPG.

Off the bench if they only have 7 players available my guess is Anya Poole and Reniya Kelly get the call as they are the two healthy players. Poole is the only other height on the team at 6'2". Kelly is 0-13 on threes so far this season. Wanna bet she hits her first one in this game? 

The Tar Heels are just not a good shooting team. They need to keep UConn in the low 60's to win this game. They only shoot 40.6% from the field and 26.6% on threes as a team. Not a great rebounding team either. For them it's all about defense.   

North Carolina doesn't pressure the ball. They use a switching man to man to defend. Watching their last game, I'll be honest. I was not that impressed. They were slow to defend open shooters and left UNC Greensboro back into the game. They were only up 2 at the half.        

The Huskies will have to go often to Edwards in the post. She could get their center in foul trouble. Gakdeng looked to be prone to foul on good post moves. The advantage is also with Paige. Paige and Paige. She is still not playing like the freshman Paige. But she is getting there. This could be a great game for her to break out. 

The big advantage is the weak UNC offense vs the good UConn defense. The Huskies haven't played their usual lock down defense but I expect them to be good enough to control the Tar Heels.  

Final Prediction


For a few reasons, I really like UConn's chances to beat UNC. This could be similar to the Maryland game. UConn is just the more talented team and with no size advantage per say, UConn's skill level should rule the day. The Huskies bench of Griffin, Ice and Q will play a big role in this win. It still won't be easy. It's just the way of this season. But it will be a win.

UConn by 8+.   

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