UCONN @ Notre Dame
Wednesday
December 7th, 2016
Place: Purcell Pavilion
Time: 7:00
TV: ESPN2
No. 2 UConn Huskies No. 1 Notre Dame
7-0 8-0
Prior Meetings
UConn - Notre Dame (34-11)
H: 16-4; A: 10-4; N: 8-3
1/18/96 W 87-64 A
2/24/96 W 86-79 H
2/24/96 W 86-79 H
3/5/96 W 71-54 H
2/9/97 W 72-49 H
3/4/97 W 86-77 H
12/6/97 W 78-59 A
2/21/98 W 73-61 H
3/2/98 W 73-53 N
12/8/98 W 106-81 A
3/2/99 W 96-75 N
2/26/00 W 77-59 H
1/15/01 L 76-92 A
3/6/01 W 78-76 H
3/30/01 L 75-90 N
1/21/02 W 80-53 H
1/20/03 W 72-53 A
2/23/03 W 77-59 H
1/13/04 L 51-66 A
1/12/05 W 67-50 A
1/30/05 L 59-65 H
3/7/05 W 67-54 N
2/19/06 W 79-64 A
3/5/06 W 71-60 N
1/27/07 W 64-47 H
1/27/08 W 81-64 A
2/22/09 W 76-66 H
1/16/10 W 70-46 H
3/1/10 W 76-51 A
3/8/10 W 59-44 N
1/8/11 W 79-76 A
2/19/11 W 78-57 H
3/8/11 W 73-64 H
4/3/11 L 72-63 N
1/7/12 L 74-67 (ot) A
2/27/12 L 72-59 H
3/6/12 W 63-54 H
4/1/12 L 83-75 (ot) N
1/5/13 L 73-72 H
3/4/13 L 96-87 (3ot) A
3/12/13 L 61-59 H
4/7/13 W 83-65 N
4/8/13 W 79-58 N
12/6/14 W 76-58 A
4/7/15 W 63-53 N
12/5/15 W 91-81 H
12/5/15 W 91-81 H
Overview
UConn vs. Notre Dame. Number 2 at Number 1. In women's college basketball, there is other no rivalry like this right now. Until UConn beat Tennessee there was no rivalry, and since they don't play anymore and Pat has stepped down, the only rivalry there is between these two teams is between the fan bases.
While the overall advantage is 32-11 UConn, the games have been evenly matched the last several years in head to head. At one point Notre Dame won 7 of 8 games between April of 2011 and March of 2013. But since then, things have changed again. UConn has won the last 5 games between the two teams. And it hasn't been that close with the margins being 18, 21, 18, two years ago National Championship UConn won by 10 points and last years regular season matchup was 10 points.
Notre Dame comes into this game at 8-0, beating up on Valparaiso 114-54 in their last outing. In their 8 games, they have played only two in what I would call competitive teams. The other six were what we like to call cupcakes. Easy wins. Glorified practices. It's really hard to make any real determinations from those games and the stats are inflated because of that. Against Green Bay, Notre Dame was able to hold on and win 71-67. In their only game against a ranked opponent, The Irish were in control for most of the game before winning 71-60 over No. 17 Washington.. When I decide who to list as starters and bench players, I always use just the competitive games.
UConn is coming off of a tough outing with Texas leading by only two in the second half before putting on a defensive display, holding Texas to 5 points before winning 72-54. UConn is certainly game ready with a road win against at the time No. 12 Florida State 78-76 and wins over then No. 2 Baylor 72-61, and their 4th top 15 opponent DePaul 91-46.
Comparative Team Statistic
Leader in Bold
Leader in Bold
UConn Notre Dame
81.0 PPG 85.8
56.9 Defensive PPG 54.0
56.9 Defensive PPG 54.0
24.1 Scoring Margin 31.8
50.5 Field Goal % 49.6
34.5 Defensive FG% 35.9
34.5 Defensive FG% 35.9
44.4 Three Point % 42.3
26.3 Defensive 3PT% 30.6
75.0 Free Throw % 70.326.3 Defensive 3PT% 30.6
37.9 Rebounds/game 44.4
3.4 Rebounding Margin 14.6
21.3 Assists per game 20.0
13.9 Turnover per game 13.9
1.5 Assists/TO ratio 1.4
8.3 Steals per game 12.4
4.0 Blocks per game 4.4
UCONN
UConn Starters
33 Katie Lou Samuelson
6'3" Sophomore Guard/Forward
After a slow first half, Katie Lou was back to her old self in the second half against Texas. Her foul trouble and slow start definitely hurt the team and kept Texas in the game. But she was also a big reason why they pulled away. She needs to hit her shots early and often against Notre Dame. Her size will make her a tough cover against the Irish. In last year's matchup she added 13 points in a breakout game for her. She won't be intimidated by the atmosphere.
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1 Sophomore Forward/Guard
Napheesa was just amazing in the Texas game. Her game keeps expanding, adding in a nice three point shot to her repertoire. In last years matchup, she was a no show. Maybe a little overwhelmed. A not ready for prime time player.
11 Kia Nurse
6' Junior Guard
Kia is starting to feel more comfortable with her shooting and that is trouble for opponents. She was terrific in face guarding the Texas point guard and keeping her from the ball in the half court offense for the Longhorns. She had an ok game in last years matchup with Notre Dame. 31 minutes, 9 points 3 assists, 2 rebounds and 2 steals. UConn will need more this time around.
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Junior Forward
I'm going to start calling her Larry Bird with her point forward type skills. She is getting so good at finding the cutters with her passes, leading UConn in assists for the second straight game. She just doesn't have a comfortable looking jumper. If that ever comes around, look out! Against Notre Dame last year, she played 16 quiet minutes scoring only 6 points and grabbing 2 rebounds. You won't see a repeat of that performance in this game.
12 Saniya Chong
5'8" Senior Guard
Saniya is coming off one of her weaker games. She just didn't see to be as active against Texas. And her limited minutes showed that Geno recognized that as well. She needs to contribute more against Notre Dame. Last year she only played 7 minutes.
UConn Bench
51 Natalie Butler
6'5" RS Sophomore Center
The new "Big Girl" (ok, she is no Kara) Butler is showing improvement in every game. She is giving the Huskies just what they need. Her 26 minutes against Texas were pretty much all positive. Her defense on Lang was crucial and she had just enough offense to keep the Longhorns honest. Hopefully she will bring that forward to the Notre Dame game. She was still recovering from her thumb injury for last years game. But I'm not sure she would have seen much time anyway.
5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Freshman Guard
Ok....it's time for the big time. Can Crystal give a performance like in the Baylor game, when she exploded into the national stage. She will be playing in her third game since the concussion and has improved in each one. She needs to play better on the ball defense against Notre Dame or Geno might not play her as much as I think she needs to play.
10 Molly Bent
5'9" Freshman Guard
Molly won't see much time in this one unless there is foul trouble. Geno will shrink the bench like he does in the NCAA's.
25 Kyla Irwin
6'2" Freshman Forward
6'2" Freshman Forward
Same goes for Kyla as I said for Molly. But when the AAC games start against weaker opponents, she will get plenty of minutes to try and improve her game.
20 Tierney Lawlor
5'7" Junior Guard
Hopefully she gets plenty of three point hand slapping done in the Notre Dame game. If she gets in to the game, that will be a great sign for UConn fans. It means a big lead at the end of the game.
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Coach
Muffet McGraw
McGraw is considered by many the 2nd best active coach in WCBB. It's hard to argue that based on the accomplishments of her program. She is a terrific recruiter, a fine tactician and a wonderful motivator of young women. Notre Dame certainly knows that and in July 2012, she signed a landmark 10-year contract extension that will keep her coaching at Notre Dame through the 2021-22 campaign.
The past 21seasons (1995-96 to the present) have been the most successful in Notre Dame's history.
If you want to read some terrific detail about her career, here is the link to her Notre Dame Bio.
If you want to read some terrific detail about her career, here is the link to her Notre Dame Bio.
Notre Dame Starters
30 Lindsay Allen
5'8" Senior Guard
Last year Allen played all 40 minutes against UConn. She might have to do that again this game. She scored 11 points and had 6 assists and only 2 turnovers. It was an iron woman performance for the diminutive point guard.
Allen received some nice honors last year. She as an Associated Press Honorable Mention All-America, Full Court Press Honorable Mention All-America, Nancy Lieberman Award Finalist.
Allen received some nice honors last year. She as an Associated Press Honorable Mention All-America, Full Court Press Honorable Mention All-America, Nancy Lieberman Award Finalist.
She had a great tournament as well earing the NCAA Oklahoma City Regional Most Outstanding Player and making the NCAA Oklahoma City Regional All-Tournament Team.
Allen ranks fourth in school history with .835 career free-throw percentage. She is seventh in program history for highest career assist average (4.6 apg.), ninth in Irish history for career minutes average (28.9 mpg.), second and fourth on school's single-season assist/turnover ratio list (2.24 in 2013-14; 2.14 in 2014-15) and is tied for sixth on Notre Dame single-season assist chart (205 in 2014-15).
11 Briana Turner
6'3" Junior Forward
Turner missed last years matchup with her shoulder injury.
Last season Turner was selected to the WBCA Coaches' All-America Team, the USBWA All-America Team, the John R. Wooden Award All-America Team, and the Sports Illustrated All-America Team. She was also an Associated Press All-America Second Team, an espnW All-America Second Team a Honda Sport Award Finalist (Top 4) and a WBCA Wade Trophy Finalist (Top 12).
2014 Gatorade National High School Female Athlete of the Year (third Notre Dame athlete in five years to earn honor after women's basketball's Skylar Diggins in 2009 and women's soccer's Morgan Andrews in 2013) ... 2014 USA Today National High School Player of the Year.
Turner was ranked No. 1 in Class of 2014 by Blue Star Basketball, ranked No. 2 (five-star player) by espnW Hoopgurlz and Collegiate Girls Basketball Report, ranked No. 3 by Peach State Basketball/JumpOffPlus, ranked No. 4 by All-Star Girls Report, ranked No. 5 by Prospects Nation and ranked as top power forward in the nation in Class of 2014 by Blue Star Basketball and All-Star Girls Report, while others ranked her second.
33 Kathryn Westbeld
6'2" Sophomore Forward
Westbeld started in last years game and played a solid 29 minutes garnering 8 rebounds and handing out 4 assists. She did have 4 crucial turnovers. But not bad for a freshman. That should help her in this game.
I've always been a big fan of Westbeld. Last season she played in all 39 games, tying Natalie Achonwa's 2010-11 school record for games played by a freshman and averaged 6.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game with .526 field-goal percentage.
I've always been a big fan of Westbeld. Last season she played in all 39 games, tying Natalie Achonwa's 2010-11 school record for games played by a freshman and averaged 6.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game with .526 field-goal percentage.
Westbeld was a 2014 McDonald's High School All-America selection. She was a 2013 MaxPreps third-team All-America pick. Westbeld was also ranked No. 16 in Class of 2014 by Blue Star Basketball and ranked No. 21 (five-star player) by espnW Hoopgurlz, All-Star Girls Report and Collegiate Girls Basketball Report.
3 Marina Mabrey
5'11" Sophomore Guard
The younger Mabrey killed it in the first half against UConn with 21 points. It was totally unexpected and until Geno put Jefferson on her in the second half, she was having her way with the Huskies. She played 33 minutes and scored 23 points. But she also had 5 turnovers. Still, a great game for the freshman. She will probably start in this game.
Marina was a 2015 McDonald's High School All-America selection, 2015 Parade All-America selection, 2015 MaxPreps All-America First Team pick, 2015 USA Today All-USA Second Team choice, 2015 Naismith Trophy second-team All-American, 2015 Women's Basketball Coaches Association (WBCA) honorable mention All-American, 2015 Gatorade New Jersey High School Player of the Year.
Mabrey was ranked No. 7 in Class of 2015 by Prospects Nation, No. 8 by Blue Star Basketball, No. 11 by All-Star Girls Report and No. 26 (five-star player) by espnW Hoopgurlz.
She earned a gold medal as a member of the 2014 USA Basketball Under-18 National Team at the FIBA Americas U18 Championship in Colorado Springs, Colorado, helped 2014 USA U18 squad to a 5-0 record at the FIBA Americas U18 Championship.
2 Arike Ogunbowale
5'8" Sophomore Guard
She only played 16 minutes in last years game, but she was effective scoring 12 points and hitting 3-4 three point shots. She is now the leading scorer and will see 35+ minutes in this outing.
Ogunbowale was a 2015 McDonald's High School All-America selection and just the third Wisconsin native ever to earn McDonald's All-America status. She was a finalist for 2015 Morgan Wootten Award, a 2015 Parade All-American, a 2015 USA Today All-USA Second Team choice. She was also a 2015 Naismith Trophy second-team All-American and a 2015 Women's Basketball Coaches Association (WBCA) All-American.
Ogunbowale was a 2015 McDonald's High School All-America selection and just the third Wisconsin native ever to earn McDonald's All-America status. She was a finalist for 2015 Morgan Wootten Award, a 2015 Parade All-American, a 2015 USA Today All-USA Second Team choice. She was also a 2015 Naismith Trophy second-team All-American and a 2015 Women's Basketball Coaches Association (WBCA) All-American.
Arike was ranked No. 4 in Class of 2015 by All-Star Girls Report, No. 5 by Prospects Nation, No. 6 by Blue Star Basketball and ranked No. 10 (five-star player) by espnW Hoopgurlz.
She is a Five-time USA Basketball medalist (four gold, one silver).
Notre Dame Bench
14 Mychal Johnson
5'7" Junior Guard
Johnson did not play in last years UConn game. But she should see some good minutes in this one.
Johnson was ranked No. 17 in Class of 2014 by Blue Star Basketball, No. 36 by Prospects Nation, No. 45 by Peach State Basketball/JumpOffPlus, No. 50 by All-Star Girls Report and No. 80 (four-star player) by espnW Hoopgurlz.
21 Kristina Nelson
6'4" Senior Forward/Center
A really big body, she will see some good minutes against UConn giving Turner a rest. She played 13 minutes in last years game and scored 4 points. But she also had 4 fouls in those 13 minutes.
She was ranked No. 39 by ESPN Hoopgurlz ... ranked No. 44 by Blue Star Basketball ... ranked No. 48 by All-Star Girls Report.
5 Jackie Young
6' Freshman Guard
Young has quite the list of accomplishments while in high school. She was the 2016 Naismith National Player of the Year, a 2016 McDonald’s All-American, the 2016 Indiana Gatorade Player of the Year. She was the all time scoring leader for career points for the state of Indiana. That is quite the accomplishment for anyone in that state. Ranked 11 for the 2016 class by ESPN Hoopgurlz.
Game Analysis
Another game between the two best teams and two best programs in WCBB.
Offensively, Notre Dame will play their usual motion offense no matter who is in the lineup. They set tough off the ball screens, trying to get their shooters open. Notre Dame is going to be using every tactic they can to free outside shooters. And with Marina Mabrey and Arke Ogunbale they have two very capable long range shooters. Allen can also give you the occasional three as well. They will have to hit these at a high percentage. The Irish will also use the pick and roll to perfection in getting Turner open lanes to the basket and the guards open jumpers if the Huskies focus on Turner. Allen is excellent at this. Westbeld can also find openings in the lane and is a consistant shooter from the foul line in. Notre Dame is just a well coached and well-oiled offensive team.
Defensively, Notre Dame uses some trapping defenses but for the most part, they will play a switching man-to-man like UConn does. But what they do best is get into the passing lanes to create turnovers. They average around 13 steals per game and if UConn is a little sloppy with the ball, they will be there to take advantage. Turner does a nice job protecting the basket and the big bodied Nelson fills the lane.
UConn will do what they do best offensively. They will run their own motion offense, looking for post entry passes to Collier, Williams. UConn will also use their defense to spark their offense. This version of UConn relies a lot on the three point shot with Samuelson, Nurse, Dangerfield, Chong and now Collier all able to hit the three. UConn will set screens to get them open and also use their terrific ball movement to do the same.
Defensively, look for UConn to occasionally pressure Notre Dame. Not necessarily to turn over the Irish, but more to take time off the clock forcing Notre Dame into bad shots. In the half court, UConn will double Turner in the post and try to keep pressure on the outside shooters. Marina Mabrey and Arike Ogunbowale are terrific from three point range and are not shy in taking them. Ogunbowale is hitting 55% from long range this season and is also terrific at getting to the basket. She is certainly one player I wish had picked UConn.
For this game, I'm putting together a player by player matchup. It's not the starters vs the starters, as I believe that Dangerfield will get a ton of time playing the point for the Huskies. I'll start with that matchup.
Point guard - 5'8" Lindsay Allen (8.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 7.5 APG) vs 5'5" Crystal Dangerfield (7.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.3 APG).
Allen, the senior, is the on the court leader for this team. She is terrific at running their offense and getting into the lane for jumpers. Her three point shooting has dropped, not in percentage, but in attempts. Dangerfield is just feeling her way through WCBB and has had games where she is terrific and others where she looks like the freshman she is. But she seems to rise to the occasion (see Baylor), so this could be a good one.
Advantage Notre Dame
Shooting Guard - 5'10" Marina Mabrey (13.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.6 APG) vs 6' Kia Nurse (13.9 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 4.6 APG).
Yeah, I know, Nurse is a combo guard, but for this analysis, I'm matching her up with Mabrey. Mabrey has had a few good games this year, but isn't going to surprise UConn this year. I would be that Kia will take on the responsibility of covering Mabrey with some really tough physical defense. Mabrey might struggle covering Nurse. Kia is too quick for her. But I'm betting there will be some trash talking quietly done between these two.
Advantage UConn
Swing Forward/Guard - 5'8" Arike Ogunbowale (17.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.8 APG) vs 5'11" Gabby Williams (10.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.6 APG).
These two don't match up in positions, but you can bet Geno will want his best defender on Ogunbowale. Ogunbowale is the leading scorer for the Irish and is really fearless on offense. She has the green light from Muffett and will shoot as soon as she sees an opening. Not a big player, but she plays like one. Williams is just too tough in the post for Ogunbowale so don't expect her to cover Williams. Although I don't see who else will unless Young gets some serious time off the bench. Gabby will post up whenever she can and if she can hit the mid range shot, it will be a long night for whoever is guarding her. And the way she is dishing the ball brings another facet to UConn's diverse offense
Even
Power Forward - 6'2" Katherine Westbeld (9.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 APG) vs 6'3" Katie Lou Samuelson (19.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.1 APG).
Yes, I have Katie Lou playing the PF, but I'm going more with the matchups than the positions. Westbeld is the only ND player that has enough size to cover Katie Lou. But she doesn't have the quickness. Lou will come off screens for jumpers and get to open spots beyond the arc for open threes. Westbeld is strong than Lou but when they match up, Lou should be able to handle her.
Advantage UConn
Center - 6'3" Brianna Turner (13.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1 APG) vs 6'1" Napheesa Collier (19.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.9 APG).
Yep, two forwards playing center. And doing a great job. Now, I know that Turner is 6'3" and can jump. But Colliers long arms and timing make her play just as big. Funny thing, Turner only has 8 blocks and Collier has 13. But both will protect the paint to some extent. Turner is a tough matchup in the post for Collier though. Brianna has terrific post moves and is quick for her size. Collier will be a handful for Turner as well. She has that knack in the paint with her equally strong left hand and multiple post moves. She also has that short baseline jumper that she never seems to miss and now she has taken her game out past the three point line.
Two terrifically talented players.
Even
Backup Post - 6'4" Kristina Nelson (5.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.5 APG) vs 6'5" Natalie Butler(4.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, .9 APG).
Two big girls that fill similar roles for their teams. I would expect their playing to mimic each other. I have a feeling Geno will put in Butler and then McGraw will then take out Turner to give her a blow and put in Nelson. I don't think McGraw would put in Nelson first to cover Collier. It would be a match up nightmare for the Irish. We may see some zone when these two players are in the game.
Even
Backup Guard - 5'7" Mychal Johnson (2.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 1.1 APG) vs 5'8" Saniya Chong (4.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 2.7 APG).
Based on timing, these two won't match up early. Chong actually will start and Johnson will come in later. But they will match up at times. Very similar players and both might not see as much time as usual as the benches shrink for both teams. Good shooters, smart players.
Even
The wildcard for this game is the freshman 6' guard Jackie Young (10.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.8 APG). A terrific player. She can shoot the ball, great handle, can hit threes and is big enough to help with the UConn forwards. Will she be an impact player in this game like Mabrey was last year? We shall see.
Coaching - Geno vs Muffet. Two of the best coaches in WCBB. Geno though gets the nod. He is just the best.
Advantage UConn
Final Prediction
Whew.....lots of info to digest. I have UConn with a 3-1 advantage in my matchups with 5 even. But with the home court advantage, it makes it a veritable even game.
What makes this tough to call is the weaker Notre Dame schedule. It skews the comparisons when one team has played 4 top 15 teams and the other has played only 1. I watched both the Green Bay game and the Washington game to get a handle on the Notre Dame team. I was not that impressed with their play in either game. But the individual talent is as I have described. They have some great talent that certainly can rise to the occasion of playin for the top spot in the nation.
The home court can be huge as well. Some say 3 points. Other say 5.
Finally, in looking at the matchups, I see some struggles for Notre Dame. They really don't have anyone to guard Williams or Samuelson effectively. That can be a big problem.
So, like I have said I won't pick against UConn and that will continue. But I do expect a competitive game that will be incredibly entertaining.
UConn by 7.
What makes this tough to call is the weaker Notre Dame schedule. It skews the comparisons when one team has played 4 top 15 teams and the other has played only 1. I watched both the Green Bay game and the Washington game to get a handle on the Notre Dame team. I was not that impressed with their play in either game. But the individual talent is as I have described. They have some great talent that certainly can rise to the occasion of playin for the top spot in the nation.
The home court can be huge as well. Some say 3 points. Other say 5.
Finally, in looking at the matchups, I see some struggles for Notre Dame. They really don't have anyone to guard Williams or Samuelson effectively. That can be a big problem.
So, like I have said I won't pick against UConn and that will continue. But I do expect a competitive game that will be incredibly entertaining.
UConn by 7.
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