Sunday, March 31st, 2019
Albany New York
Time: 12:00 PM
TV: ESPN
No. 1 UConn 34-2 Louisville 32-3
Head to Head games
H: 8-1; A: 4-1; N: 5-0
3/17/93 L 71-74 H
1/31/06 W 75-68 A
2/13/07 W 84-56 H
3/5/07 W 76-50 N
1/12/08 W 92-71 A
3/11/08 W 65-59 N
1/26/09 W 93-65 H
3/10/09 W 75-36 N
4/7/09 W 76-54 N
2/7/10 W 84-38 A
1/15/11 W 78-55 H
2/7/12 W 56-46 A
1/15/13 W 72-58 H
4/9/13 W 93-60 N
2/9/14 W 81-64 H
3/3/14 W 68-48 A
3/10/14 W 72-52 N
2/12/18 W 69-58 H
1/31/19 L 78-69 A
Overview
UConn and Louisville had a long and fairly recent history together. The games were always entertaining and some were even under a 20 point UConn winning margin like last season for example. Jeff Walz is a very entertaining coach and the Cardinal have always had some really good players. Just not good enough to beat UConn.
This year, Louisville is having another great season and they found a way to beat UConn in their first matchup at the Yum earlier in the season 78-69.
Here are highlights from the Louisville perspective. Painful to watch. I guess that makes them lowlights. I hope the team watched them and learned something!!!
Louisville's best wins were against at the time No. 19 Arizona State taking that game 58-56. They also beat at the time No. 19 Kentucky 80-75. They also beat an underrated Central Michigan team 72-68 and North Carolina 73-66. Their bad losses were both to Notre Dame, losing 82-68 and 99-79. I'm sure Geno is looking at tape on both of their games as well as UConn's loss to the Cards.
Stat by Stat Comparison
Leader is bolded
Leader is bolded
UCONN Louisville
83.0 Points Per Game 78.0
55.4 Opp Points Per Game 58.9
.495 Field Goal % .468
.338 Opp Field Goal % .378
.361 3 Point Field Goal % .362
.361 3 Point Field Goal % .362
.282 Opp 3 Point Field Goal % .290
.732 Free Throw % .749
41.9 Rebounds Per Game 36.9
34.6 Opp Rebounds Per Game 34.9
19.8 Assists Per Game 16.8
11.8 Turnovers Per Game 12.3
1.7 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.4
8.2 Steals Per Game 8.2
1.7 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.4
8.2 Steals Per Game 8.2
4.3 Blocks Per Game 4.2
UCONN
UConn Starters
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Senior Forward
3 Megan Walker
6'1" Sophomore Guard/Forward
13 Christyn Williams
5'11" Freshman Guard
UConn Bench
6'4" Freshman Forward
20 Olivia Nelson-Ododa
10 Kyra Irwin
6'2" Junior Forward
25 Molly Bent
5'9" Junior Guard
32 Batouly Camara
6'2" RS Junior Forward
4 Mykala Coombs
5'8" Sophomore Guard
*******************************************************************
Louisville Head Coach
Jeff Walz
Tennessee bound???
Louisville Starters
25 Asia Durr
5'10" Senior Guard
3 Sam Fuering
6'3" Senior Forward
23 Jazmine Jones
6' Junior Guard
11 Arica Carter
5'8" RS Senior Guard
21 Kylee Shook
6'4" Junior Forward
Louisville Bench
33 Bionca Dunham
6'2" Junior Forward
1 Dana Evans
5'6" Sophomore Guard
Game Analysis
Louisville is a little top heavy in how they operate their offense. Senior guard Asia Durr is the leading scorer on this team and has been one the of best players in the country since arriving on the scene. She has the complete offensive game. A great three point shooter, she doesn't need much room to get her shot off. And she has a terrific pull up jumper in the lane. She can get to the basket, but it's not what she does best. You know she is going to get her 15-20 shots per game. She had 24 points on 18 shots in the first match up.
6'2" Bionca Dunham started the first game and played 21 minutes and added 8 points and 7 rebounds. But she is coming off the bench since that game. She is a solid post presence and will see double digit minutes.
Replacing her in the starting lineup is 6'4" Kylee Shook. Shook is a BIG body and throws it around with reckless abandon. Not greatly skilled, she can cause some damage down low. And she is surprisingly effective from beyond the arc. I wouldn't be surprised to see her hit a three in this game. Just one more big for UConn to deal with.
Louisville also starts Sam Fuerling, a 6'3" forward, Jazmine Jone, a 6' guard and Arica Carter a 5'8 guard who plays the point.
In Fueling they have a nice player around the basket who can take the ball out to close to the 3 point line for shots. But her forte is carving out space in the post and receiving passes. She surprised everyone by hitting 3 threes against Oregon State. She played 36 minutes against UConn and had a double double with 10 points and 12 rebounds. She will be a tough match up.
Jones is a nice player with a quick first step to the basket. She's not a threat from deep so UConn will give her room. But she really rebounds well from the guard spot and also had a double double against UConn with 13 points and 12 rebounds.
The point guard Carter is a very good distributor of the ball. But it's not hard to pile up the assists when you are passing to Durr. She's an improved three point shooter, and she is taking more of this this season, around 5 per game.
Off the bench, the sophomore point guard Dana Evans is a fun player to watch. She is really quick. Close to Dangerfield quick. She is a much improved player in both her shooting percentages and assist to turnover ratio. She was what I thought the big difference in the first game against UConn. She played 29 minutes and was 5-10 on threes and scored 20 points and had 4 assists in that game.
Defensively, Louisville is strictly a man-to-man team. They so plenty of switching but certainly not on the UConn level. They really don't pressure the ball unless Evans is in the game. She is a real pest for the ball handler. But I saw her get beat to the basket several times when whoever she was guarding got a step on her. The battle with Dangerfield will be fun to watch. Louisville doesn't block a ton of shots and Shook is really the only one that has the ability to defend the basket. But she just doesn't get enough minutes to make a difference. Their help defense can be a step slow leaving a lot of open shots.
Offensively UConn will do what they do with ball movement and finding the open shot. There will be lanes open to the basket and with no real shot blocker there, UConn could have their way. If they can hit their outside shots, it will open up the middle for Collier to dominate.
The key for UConn is simple Shoot better and defend better. They lost their man several times on defense allowing open shots to both Durr and Evans. That will kill them if they do that again. And shooting 38% for the game just won't cut it. Did Louisville force them into tougher shots? At times. But the Huskies have to shoot closer to their season average of 49.5% in order to win this game.
It's been a while since UConn had a rematch during the season where they were 0-1 against the team. The last time was in the 2012-13 season where Notre Dame (of course) beat UConn twice in the season before losing to the Huskies in the National Semi-final game.
Does the familiarity between the two teams give anyone an advantage? Probably not. But Louisville had one big advantage in that game and that was the YUM!. That is one heck of a home court advantage. In this game, there will be a pretty good advantage for the Huskies, playing in Albany, where UConn has had so much success.
I always like the team that lost the first game to win the second when the teams are pretty even. And to tell you the truth, I don't think it's even. I believe UConn is the better team, even with losing the first matchup.
But....there are two factors that could make a difference. Shook is not going to play 5 minutes like she did in the first game and Katie Lou appears to be still not 100%. That will make this a closer game.
I was so proud of how UConn stood tall in the UCLA game and that will do them well in future close games. They certainly didn't do that in the first Louisville game so I'm confident they will handle anything that Louisville has to offer. They can't be more physical than the Bruins were.
So, with all I've said here, and looking at my Magic Eight Ball, I can confidently say - UConn by 7+.
6'2" Bionca Dunham started the first game and played 21 minutes and added 8 points and 7 rebounds. But she is coming off the bench since that game. She is a solid post presence and will see double digit minutes.
Replacing her in the starting lineup is 6'4" Kylee Shook. Shook is a BIG body and throws it around with reckless abandon. Not greatly skilled, she can cause some damage down low. And she is surprisingly effective from beyond the arc. I wouldn't be surprised to see her hit a three in this game. Just one more big for UConn to deal with.
Louisville also starts Sam Fuerling, a 6'3" forward, Jazmine Jone, a 6' guard and Arica Carter a 5'8 guard who plays the point.
In Fueling they have a nice player around the basket who can take the ball out to close to the 3 point line for shots. But her forte is carving out space in the post and receiving passes. She surprised everyone by hitting 3 threes against Oregon State. She played 36 minutes against UConn and had a double double with 10 points and 12 rebounds. She will be a tough match up.
Jones is a nice player with a quick first step to the basket. She's not a threat from deep so UConn will give her room. But she really rebounds well from the guard spot and also had a double double against UConn with 13 points and 12 rebounds.
The point guard Carter is a very good distributor of the ball. But it's not hard to pile up the assists when you are passing to Durr. She's an improved three point shooter, and she is taking more of this this season, around 5 per game.
Off the bench, the sophomore point guard Dana Evans is a fun player to watch. She is really quick. Close to Dangerfield quick. She is a much improved player in both her shooting percentages and assist to turnover ratio. She was what I thought the big difference in the first game against UConn. She played 29 minutes and was 5-10 on threes and scored 20 points and had 4 assists in that game.
Defensively, Louisville is strictly a man-to-man team. They so plenty of switching but certainly not on the UConn level. They really don't pressure the ball unless Evans is in the game. She is a real pest for the ball handler. But I saw her get beat to the basket several times when whoever she was guarding got a step on her. The battle with Dangerfield will be fun to watch. Louisville doesn't block a ton of shots and Shook is really the only one that has the ability to defend the basket. But she just doesn't get enough minutes to make a difference. Their help defense can be a step slow leaving a lot of open shots.
Offensively UConn will do what they do with ball movement and finding the open shot. There will be lanes open to the basket and with no real shot blocker there, UConn could have their way. If they can hit their outside shots, it will open up the middle for Collier to dominate.
The key for UConn is simple Shoot better and defend better. They lost their man several times on defense allowing open shots to both Durr and Evans. That will kill them if they do that again. And shooting 38% for the game just won't cut it. Did Louisville force them into tougher shots? At times. But the Huskies have to shoot closer to their season average of 49.5% in order to win this game.
Game Prediction
It's been a while since UConn had a rematch during the season where they were 0-1 against the team. The last time was in the 2012-13 season where Notre Dame (of course) beat UConn twice in the season before losing to the Huskies in the National Semi-final game.
Does the familiarity between the two teams give anyone an advantage? Probably not. But Louisville had one big advantage in that game and that was the YUM!. That is one heck of a home court advantage. In this game, there will be a pretty good advantage for the Huskies, playing in Albany, where UConn has had so much success.
I always like the team that lost the first game to win the second when the teams are pretty even. And to tell you the truth, I don't think it's even. I believe UConn is the better team, even with losing the first matchup.
But....there are two factors that could make a difference. Shook is not going to play 5 minutes like she did in the first game and Katie Lou appears to be still not 100%. That will make this a closer game.
I was so proud of how UConn stood tall in the UCLA game and that will do them well in future close games. They certainly didn't do that in the first Louisville game so I'm confident they will handle anything that Louisville has to offer. They can't be more physical than the Bruins were.
So, with all I've said here, and looking at my Magic Eight Ball, I can confidently say - UConn by 7+.
I love your positive spin but I’m legitimately worried that We have become too predictable. The book on us is crowd KLS, hope for indecision on Walker and Williams. Almost no bench to have to,scout. So, we really are down to shooting great even when closely guarded and hope the underclassmen show up. I hate being in that position.
ReplyDelete