DoggyDaddy's UConn/Oregon Pre Game Report

UConn vs Oregon
Day: Monday

Date: March 27th, 2017

Location: Bridgeport, Ct

Time: 7:00 

TV: ESPN






UConn Huskies                                             Oregon Ducks

           35-0                                                                   23-13

Overview

Prior Meetings

UConn leads 2-0

H: 1-0; A: 1-0; N: 0-0

12/31/12 W 95-51 A
11/20/13 W 114-68 H

Oregon Overview
                                            

Oregon has had a very up and down season. Coming into this game they are 23-13 and were right on the bubble before beating No. 11 Washington in the PAC12 tournament 70-69. This was their fourth quality win of the season, enough to get them a 10 seed. They also beat UCLA 84-75, then No. 20 California 69-66, and then No. 24 Michigan State 88-55.

But they have 13 losses and some of those are pretty bad. They lost to Ole Miss 83-67, Washington State 75-59, and Colorado 76-66. And some games they were absolutely hammered by ranked teams, losing to then No. 9 Washington 99-77, and then No. 10 Stanford 81-60.

The inconsistency is no surprise considering their best two players by far are freshman and they start 3 freshman, a sophomore and a junior. But it looks like they have hit their stride in the NCAA tournament. They first beat Temple 71-70 in a game that was fun to watch. Close throughout, it took a blocked shot at the end to preserve the one point win. They went on to beat Duke 74-65. But remember that Duke lost a starting guard Kyla Lambert to injury in a practice just before this game. Finally, they beat Maryland 77-63 in what was their best played game of the season. The defensive game plan was perfect, holding the leading scoring team in the nation to almost 30 points below their average and they were able to turn the Terps over 21 times.

Just some points of interest about the Oregon team.

- Sabrina Ionescu was ESPN national FOY.
- Ruthy Hebard is a 6'4" forward from Anchorage Alaska. So was 6'3" forward Jessica Moore, former UConn players.
- Mallory McGuire is daughter of former NFL quarterback Dan McGuire and niece of former major league baseball player Mark McGuire       
- Oregon has 3 players from Australia, 1 player from Canada and one player from Spain on the roster

Comparative Team Statistic

Leader in Bold

                                            UConn                                          Oregon
                                       

                                              87.7              PPG                     71.4
                                              54.6        Defensive PPG          65.1

                                              33.1        Scoring Margin            6.3

                                              52.9        Field Goal %              45.0 
                                              34.8        Defensive FG%          39.7

                                              40.4        Three Point %            39.0
                                              27.3        Defensive 3PT%        30.7 

                                              78.4        Free Throw %            72.8 

                                              39.2        Rebounds/game        37.5 

                                              23.7        Assists per game       16.6 

                                              12.1        Turnover per game    13.9

                                                2.0        Assists/TO ratio           1.2

                                              10.0        Steals per game          7.1  

                                                4.9        Blocks per game          3.0 

                                                         

UConn dominates all of these stats, like they did with most teams. They even have the advantage in rebounding! As you can see, the Ducks are a terrific three point shooting team, just below UConn in the national stats.

UCONN

UConn Starters

33 Katie Lou Samuelson

6'3" Sophomore Guard/Forward

Albany - 33 minutes, 15 points, 3 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals
Syracuse - 35 minutes 23 points, 5 rebounds 4 assists, 1 steal
UCLA - 40 minutes, 15 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal

MPG 31.7, FG% .490, 3PT% .425, FT% .837, PPG 20.7, RPG 3.9, APG 3.2

24 Napheesa Collier

6'1" Sophomore Forward/Guard

Albany - 28 minutes, 24 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks
Syracuse - 28 minutes 17 points, 7 rebounds 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks
UCLA - 36 minutes, 27 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks

MPG 29.9, FG% .690, 3PT% .422, FT% .824, PPG 20.4, RPG 9.0, APG 2.3

15 Gabby Williams

5'11" Junior Forward

Albany - 27 minutes, 20 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 steals, 1 block 

Syracuse - 32 minutes 23 points, 6 rebounds 5 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks
UCLA - 38 minutes, 17 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 steal

MPG 28.8, FG% .577, 3PT% .167, FT% .713, PPG 13.8, RPG 8.4, APG 5.3

11 Kia Nurse

6' Junior Guard

Albany - 24 minutes, 24 points, 0 rebounds, 3 assists
Syracuse - 34 minutes, 29 points, 1 rebound, 6 assists
UCLA - 31 minutes, 9 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists

MPG 30.4, FG% .482, 3PT% .463, FT% .864, PPG 13.0, RPG 2.2, APG 3.9

12 Saniya Chong

5'8" Senior Guard

Albany - 31 minutes, 6 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals
Syracuse - 31 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 7 assists
UCLA - 38 minutes, 16 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists

MPG 30.5, FG% .466, 3PT% .387, FT% .808, PPG 8.1, RPG 3.0, APG 4.0

UConn Bench

5 Crystal Dangerfield

5'5" Freshman Guard

Albany - 29 minutes, 16 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 block
Syracuse - 23 minutes, 2 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal
UCLA - 17 minutes, 2 points, 0 rebounds, 4 assists

PPG 24.6, FG% .407 3PT% .325, FT% .600, PPG 6.4, RPG 2.3, APG 3.9

51 Natalie Butler

6'5" RS Junior Center

Albany - 15 minutes, 8 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks
Syracuse - 8 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound
UCLA - DNP

MPG 16.1, FG% .500, 3PT% .000, FT% .732, PPG 5.6, RPG 5.0, APG 1.1

10 Molly Bent

5'9" Freshman Guard

Albany - 5 minutes
Syracuse - 3 minutes
UCLA - DNP

MPG 9.5 FG% .303, 3PT% .333, FT% .625, PPG 1.1, RPG 1.4, APG 1.3

25 Kyla Irwin

6'2" Freshman Forward

Albany - 5 minutes, 3 points, 1 assist
Syracuse - 4 minutes
UCLA - DNP

MPG 8.0, FG% .462, 3PT% .353, FT% .714, PPG 2.4, RPG 1.4, APG .5

20 Tierney Lawlor

5'7" Senior Guard

Albany - 2 minutes, 1 steal
Syracuse - 3 minutes, 1 assist
UCLA - DNP

MPG 3.4, FG% .000, 3PT% .000, FT% .500, PPG 0.1, RPG .4, APG .1

UCONN TEAM STATS

Oregon

                                       

  

Kelly Graves

Head Coach

Kelly Graves is in his third season at the helm of the Oregon women’s basketball program. Graves was named the seventh head coach in program history on April 7, 2014.

Graves guided the Ducks to a 24-11 record and an appearance in the semifinals of the WNIT in 2015-16. Oregon's improvement by 8.5 games over the previous year was tied for the 13th most in the NCAA. Oregon's 24 wins was just one shy of the program record of 25, set in both 1980-81 and 1998-99.

Oregon is Graves’ fourth head coaching position, previously leading the programs at Big Bend Community College (1989-92), Saint Mary’s (1997-2000) and Gonzaga (2000-14).

Graves added USA Basketball to his resume in the summer of 2012, becoming an assistant coach with the U18 women’s basketball squad and helping the team to a gold medal at the 2012 FIBA Americas. He again coached for USA Basketball in the summer of 2013. As an assistant with Team USA, he helped the U19 squad win the FIBA World Championship for Women. Another coach on the U19 staff was current Miami head coach, Katie Meier.

“Kelly is a tremendous teacher of the game,” Meier said. “His teams are always disciplined, smart, fun to watch and display the same enthusiasm and love for the game that he possesses. He builds winning cultures first, which leads to championship teams. Oregon has made a tremendous hire. Kelly is a talented coach full of integrity and a man who treats his players as family.”

Graves and his wife Mary have three sons - Max (1995) Jackson (1997) and Will (2000). Max currently attends the UO and works as a practice player for the team. 

Oregon Starters

24 Ruthy Hebard
6'4" Freshman Forward

Temple -  37 minutes, 23 points, 7 rebounds, 0 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal
Duke - 36 minutes, 20 points, 15 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 block 2 steals
Maryland - 33 minutes, 16 points, 8 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 steals 

MPG 27.2, FG% .593, 3PT% .000, PPG 15.0, RPG 8.7, APG .8


20 Sabrina Ionescu
5'10" Freshman Guard

Temple -  39 minutes, 16 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal
Duke - 40 minutes, 13 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 block, 2 steals
Maryland -  38 minutes, 21 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals

MPG 32.8, FG% .388, 3PT% .414, PPG 14.6, RPG 6.6, APG 5.6

10 Lexi Brando
5'9" Junior Guard

Temple -  40 minutes, 5 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals
Duke - 36 minutes, 14 points, 2 rebounds, 5 assists
Maryland - 38 minutes, 10 points, 1 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals

MPG 30.3, FG% .425, 3PT% .472, PPG 10.4 RPG 2.7, APG 1.4


05 Maite Cazorla
5'10" Sophomore Guard

Temple -  40 minutes, 5 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals
Duke - 34 minutes, 17 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists
Maryland - 40 minutes, 15 points, 1 rebounds, 2 assists

MPG 30.6, FG% .399, 3PT% .359, PPG 8.1 RPG 1.5, APG 3.9


44 Mallory McGuire
6'5" Freshman Forward

Temple -  30 minutes, 13 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks
Duke - 21 minutes, 4 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks
Maryland - 21 minutes, 4 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block

MPG 16.3, FG% .534, 3PT% .000 PPG 7.4 RPG 4.2, APG .7

Oregon Bench

32 Oti Gilden
6'1" Sophomore Forward

Temple -  9 minutes, 5 points, 2 rebounds
Duke - 9 minutes, 4 points, 1 rebound
Maryland - 25 minutes, 11 points, 9 rebounds, 4 steals

MPG 9.9, FG% .579, 3PT% .000, PPG 4.5 RPG 2.5, APG .2

15 Jacinta Vandenberg
6'5" Senior Forward

Temple -  DNP
Duke - 16 minutes, 0 points, 0 rebounds, 1 assist
Maryland - 2 minutes, 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists

MPG 15.0, FG% .425, 3PT% .000, PPG 2.1, RPG 3.0, APG 1.5


03 Justine Hall
5'10" Junior Guard

Temple -  11 minutes, 2 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assists
Duke - 8 minutes, 2 points, 1 rebounds, 1 steal
Maryland - 4 minutes, 0 points, 0 rebounds, 1 assists

MPG 11.76, FG% .415, 3PT% .378, PPG 3.5, RPG .9, APG .4

Oregon Stats



*******************************************************************

Game Analysis

A 10 seed vs the overall No. 1 seed would seem like an earlier round game, but Oregon has surprised everyone and won their first three games to get into the Elite Eight against UConn. They are doing what they need to do to win each game, but they did catch a break with Duke being down a starting guard in their matchup.

The Ducks are led by National FOY Sabina Ionescu, a terrific player that is absolutely fearless. In so many ways she reminds me of Diana Taurasi, just not quite as skilled. She has terrific court vision and has a great three point shot. But like Taurasi, she is as tough as nails on the court. UConn will not intimidate her.

Oregon has a terrific freshman post player in Ruthy Hebard. She is a true 6'4" with long arms. Her skill at offensive rebounds has really been a factor in the tournament. She has more than UConn's Williams or Collier for the season. She posts hard and knows how to finish.

The wildcard for Oregon is Lexi Bando, their three point shooting specialist. If you leave her open, odds are good she will hit the long range shot. A lefty, she reminds me a little of the South Florida guard Pujol. She seems to play in perpetual motion, running from corner to corner, looking to get open.

Maiti Cazorla is the third guard in the starting rotation and a pretty good passer and facilitator. She can also get hot from the outside. But she doesn't have a very diverse game. Not one to drive to much to the basket, she will try to get the ball to the right person at the right time more than take on any offense on herself.

The last starter is another freshman, 6'5" Mallory McGuire. She has a nice mid-range jump shot and is a very good positional rebounder. She is a little slow up and down the court, but really works hard out there. While the other four starters have played 30+ minutes per game, she is around 20.

The bench is really limited. I listed three players, but they only have played a total of 84 minutes in the three games, an average of less than 10 minutes per game each. I don't expect that to change in this game.

On offense, Oregon will try to do a few things. Get the ball inside to their big post Hebard. She really likes to set up on the right side and turn to hit little jump hooks off the backboard. But when she gets ball in position, she rarely finds a player in scoring position with a pass. She only has 29 assists for the season. Even Natalie Butler has more assists than her to put that in perspective.

The key to the offense is Ionescu. She is a strong guard at 5'10" and can get to the rim if not defended right. She can finish with either hand and loves to kick the ball out to open players when the defense impedes her drive to the hoop. And she is a terrific three point shooter with pretty much unlimited range. In that regard, she reminds me of Laksa of South Florida.

The recipient of those kick outs is usually Brando, who hits threes at close to 50%. She has a quick release and will not hesitate to let it fly. The other player who benefits from Ionescu's passes is McGuire, who loves to play the high post looking for passes so she can take her shot foul line jumper.

Nothing fancy about their offense. They dribble too much for my taste, but they have been pretty effective in the tournament.

On defense, they look to play a matchup zone with the guard, with the two bigs reacting to the ball to help on any attempts by the offense to get to the basket. It can be very effective when they are moving quickly enough. But it does leave open long range shots. They don't press much and they really don't pressure the ball. But what they do is force the ball into places they feel the other team is uncomfortable.

The problem is they are playing a team that doesn't have many places they are uncomfortable with on the court. UConn's offense of passing without putting the ball on the floor will get them plenty of open looks. And as usual, Samuelson will be a matchup problem for a team playing three sub-6 foot guards. One of them will have to cover Lou in the post. UConn will also take advantage of their clear advantage in quickness in all positions. Brando seem to me to be the quickest player on the court for Oregon, but that is not enough to help at the other mismatches.

Williams and Collier should be able to beat the Oregon posts at will to the basket. I'm curious to see how Oregon plans to handle this. If they try to help the posts on defense, the outside shooting for UConn will be a big factor. Nurse and Chong are coming off big shooting games, and I expect Samuelson to have plenty of open looks as well.

UConn will try to run, run and run some more after a rebound and even after a made basket. The two posts for Oregon will not be able to keep up with UConn for very long.

I think that Dangerfield will see more minutes in this game. She is quicker than anyone on the Ducks can produce and should be able to get into the lane to cause confusion for Oregon.

On defense, UConn will really pressure the Duck, trying to put the very young Ducks in situations they haven't been in before. UConn will full court press early to see how they handle it. Oregon turns the ball over 14 times a game and UConn will want to reach at least that number. UConn's quick hands (Gabby) will disrupt the passing lanes.

I'm sure Geno will want to play extra attention to Ionescu and probably will start with Nurse on her. That will be the key matchup in the game. If they shut down Sabrina, they shut down the Oregon offense.     
                    

      Final Prediction

The ride ends here for the Ducks. As good as a coach that Kelly Graves is, UConn will prove way too much for Oregon to handle. They might be able to stay with UConn in spurts, but UConn should have several typical Husky runs to open a big lead. We will see then how well Oregon handles the pressure.   

UConn will be looking to rebound from what they probably feel was a lousy effort. I'm not sure how lousy it was, but it certainly wasn't up to their standards. The slow start and the weak finish is probably sticking in the players craw and I expect them to come out firing on all cylinders. This one could get ugly.

I have to believe it will be a 35+ point win for the Huskies!!! And on to the Final Four.