UCONN @ Baylor
Day: Thursday
Date: January 3rd, 2019
Time: 9:00
Location: Waco, TX
Ferrell Center
TV: ESPN
No. 1 UConn Huskies No. 8 Baylor Bears 10-0 9-1
Prior Meetings
BAYLOR | UCONN LEADS 4-2
H: 2-1 | A: 1-1 | N: 1-0
04/04/10 #1 UConn 70, #14 Baylor 50 San Antonio, Texas
11/16/10 #1 UConn 65, #2 Baylor 64 Hartford, Conn.
12/18/11 #1 Baylor 66, #2 UConn 61 Waco, Texas
02/18/13 #1 Baylor 76, #3 UConn 70 Hartford, Conn.
01/13/14 #1 UConn 66, #7 Baylor 55 Waco, Texas
11/17/16 #3 UConn 72, #2 Baylor 61 Storrs, Conn.
I'm a big fan of patterns, but I hope this one doesn't happen.
UConn won two, lost two, won two and now?????
Game Highlights
Team Overviews
Baylor
No. 1 UConn is now 11-0 after beating California 76-66 and then Oklahoma 72-63 on the road in games that tested the meddle of even the most optimistic UConn fan (me!). Prior to that they hammered Seton Hall 99-61 and before that St. Louis 98-42 in the game after their destruction of Notre Dame where they won 89-71.
UConn opened the season with a solid 85-53 win over Ohio State. They followed that with another very good win against Vanderbilt 80-42. In winning the Paradise Jam, the Huskies beat Ole Miss 90-50, St. John's 65-55 and Purdue 86-40. After that they put the hammer to DePaul winning 99-63.
Baylor
Baylor hasn't played the toughest schedule in accumulating nine wins and only one loss.
They started the season with RPI 168 Nichols winning 100-39 and following that up with a 116-58 win over St. Francis (PA) who has an RPI of 238. Two good stat builder games. They then played then No. 23 Arizona State, beating them 65-59. Another cupcake was next in RPI 116 Southern and Baylor feasted on them with a 94-49 win.
South Dakota State was next and they are really a tough team this year. They gave Baylor all they had but the Bears prevailed 72-66. Baylor beat up on Georgetown in the next game winning 67-46 and then put the hammer to an overrated South Carolina team, beating them 94-69. RPI 208 Morehead State was next and the Bears did as was expect in their 96-58 win.
Their only loss of the season came next, a 68-63 win for No. 4 Stanford. This is the game that I'm sure Geno used to scout Baylor and use as a roadmap for UConn.
Baylor used their last game to get the entire team plenty of minutes. When you play RPI 288 UT Rio Grande Valley and win 98-37 that's what you can do.
They started the season with RPI 168 Nichols winning 100-39 and following that up with a 116-58 win over St. Francis (PA) who has an RPI of 238. Two good stat builder games. They then played then No. 23 Arizona State, beating them 65-59. Another cupcake was next in RPI 116 Southern and Baylor feasted on them with a 94-49 win.
South Dakota State was next and they are really a tough team this year. They gave Baylor all they had but the Bears prevailed 72-66. Baylor beat up on Georgetown in the next game winning 67-46 and then put the hammer to an overrated South Carolina team, beating them 94-69. RPI 208 Morehead State was next and the Bears did as was expect in their 96-58 win.
Their only loss of the season came next, a 68-63 win for No. 4 Stanford. This is the game that I'm sure Geno used to scout Baylor and use as a roadmap for UConn.
Baylor used their last game to get the entire team plenty of minutes. When you play RPI 288 UT Rio Grande Valley and win 98-37 that's what you can do.
UConn
No. 1 UConn is now 11-0 after beating California 76-66 and then Oklahoma 72-63 on the road in games that tested the meddle of even the most optimistic UConn fan (me!). Prior to that they hammered Seton Hall 99-61 and before that St. Louis 98-42 in the game after their destruction of Notre Dame where they won 89-71.
UConn opened the season with a solid 85-53 win over Ohio State. They followed that with another very good win against Vanderbilt 80-42. In winning the Paradise Jam, the Huskies beat Ole Miss 90-50, St. John's 65-55 and Purdue 86-40. After that they put the hammer to DePaul winning 99-63.
Comparative Team Statistics
UConn Baylor
85.4 PPG 86.5
55.1 Defensive PPG 54.9
30.3 Scoring Margin 11.6
51.1 Field Goal % 52.5
33.3 Defensive FG% 29.5
39.0 Three Point % 42.1
26.0 Defensive 3PT% 31.8
75.7 Free Throw % 61.6
42.7 Rebounds/game 51.7
9.2 Rebounding Margin 22.9
19.1 Assists per game 24.0
10.7 Turnover per game 15.4
1.8 Assists/TO ratio 1.6
6.6 Steals per game 8.3
3.0 Blocks per game 6.9
UCONN
UConn Starters
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Senior Forward
3 Megan Walker
6'1" Sophomore Guard/Forward
5'11" Freshman Guard
UConn Bench
10 Kyra Irwin
6'2" Junior Forward
25 Molly Bent
5'9" Junior Guard
32 Batouly Camara
6'2" RS Junior Forward
4 Mykala Coombs
5'8" Sophomore Guard
20 Olivia Nelson-Ododa
6'4" Freshman Forward
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Baylor
Head Coach
Kim Mulkey
I usually post a short bio of the opposing coach here, but the Baylor site has a 1,000 page write up on Mulkey. No doubt she wrote it herself. Here is the link if you want to read it because you can't sleep.
Kim Mulkey Bio
Kim Mulkey Bio
Baylor Starters
21 Kalani Brown
6'7" Senior Center
15 Lauren Cox
6'4" Junior Forward
24 Chloe Jackson
5'8" Fifth Year Guard
20 Juicy Landrum
5'8" Junior Guard
02 DiDi Richards
6'1" Sophomore Guard
Baylor Bench
01 NaLyssa Smith
6'2" Freshman Forward
25 Queen Egbo
6'3" Freshman Center
10 Aquira DeCosta
6' Freshman Forward
Game Analysis
So, how many times has UConn played the Bears two games in a row? It may be the first time after beating the California Bears in their last game and now the Baylor Bears in this game. Ok, on to the real analysis.
Like I do with most top opponents when I analyze them, I only look at the competitive game because that is what the UConn game will be. Just because they have nine players in double digit minutes per game, two with over 9 mpg and one player over 8 mpg doesn't mean they will go deep into the bench. In their three competitive games, Arizona State, South Dakota State and their loss to Stanford. They went only 6 deep in the first two and they did play two more off the bench in the Stanford loss but more on that later.
Baylor starts a big lineup with their leading scorer 6'7" senior Kalani Brown. She is a real load in the middle but she is not as dominant as she has been in prior season. I'm not sure why, but she doesn't seem to be the same player. Along side her is 6'4" junior, former UConn target Lauren Cox. At time, Cox looks slow and out of shape. Is she struggling with her diabetes? She does the best she can dealing with it but sometimes it appears to get the better of her.
They start three guards with the big two with 5'8" point guard Chloe Jackson the leading assister at 6.2 per game. Jackson has filled in nicely for their expected starting point guard Alexis Morris, who was dismissed from the team for violations. That was a big loss for the Bears as Morris was not only a great distributor but a terrific scorer as well. The other two guards are 5'8" Juicy Landrum and 6'1" DiDi Richards. Landrum is the only three point shooter on the team and Richards is more of a swing player than a true guard. These guards are good players, but none of them are great.
Baylor has a long bench, as I mentioned, but only one player is guaranteed and that is freshman NyLissa Smith, the second leading scorer on the team. She is an aggressive player that loves to attack the basket and hits the boards hard. She is always a possible double-double player. Now, I'm not sure we will see either of the other two bench players I listed. Both Aquina DeCosta (back from injury) and Queen Egbo saw time against Stanford but that was mostly because Cox really struggled against the smaller but quicker Stanford players. That could happen against the Huskies.
The Bears will try to use their size advantage with Brown and Cox to the fullest, posting up Brown and having Cox run the high-low to her. Cox is a threat from three point land, but just doesn't take that many averaging 1.4 attempts per game. But it usually keeps the defense honest. Juicy Landry (Why do I love typing that name?) is the only consistent three point threat but she only take around 5 per game. In fact, that 42.9% three point shooting is very deceiving as they only take around 10 per game. I don't see that being too much of a factor.
Defensively, Baylor will have trouble with covering UConn. The Huskies are just quicker along the front line. That is why you might see those freshmen off the bench. Brown and Cox cannot cover Samuelson and Collier. They will take them to the outside and Katie Lou will shoot if the sage back and Collier will drive by the slower Bears. Baylor will have to find a way to slow down the Husky fast break. UConn will run and run and run, tiring out the Bears and look to make it a fast breaking layup drill kind of game.
The question for UConn fans is once again the bench. Will anyone see any time on the court? Unless ONO has shown something different in practice or UConn get's into any foul trouble, I just don't see it. But when you have the more talented starting five and maybe the best conditioned players in WCBB, you can easily get away with it.
UConn is in great shape because of their difficult practices and the many minutes they play in games. for Baylor, one issue in playing your starters so few minutes on the season is they are not prepared as well to play extended minutes and tire out more quickly. I can see that happening in this game.
Like I do with most top opponents when I analyze them, I only look at the competitive game because that is what the UConn game will be. Just because they have nine players in double digit minutes per game, two with over 9 mpg and one player over 8 mpg doesn't mean they will go deep into the bench. In their three competitive games, Arizona State, South Dakota State and their loss to Stanford. They went only 6 deep in the first two and they did play two more off the bench in the Stanford loss but more on that later.
Baylor starts a big lineup with their leading scorer 6'7" senior Kalani Brown. She is a real load in the middle but she is not as dominant as she has been in prior season. I'm not sure why, but she doesn't seem to be the same player. Along side her is 6'4" junior, former UConn target Lauren Cox. At time, Cox looks slow and out of shape. Is she struggling with her diabetes? She does the best she can dealing with it but sometimes it appears to get the better of her.
They start three guards with the big two with 5'8" point guard Chloe Jackson the leading assister at 6.2 per game. Jackson has filled in nicely for their expected starting point guard Alexis Morris, who was dismissed from the team for violations. That was a big loss for the Bears as Morris was not only a great distributor but a terrific scorer as well. The other two guards are 5'8" Juicy Landrum and 6'1" DiDi Richards. Landrum is the only three point shooter on the team and Richards is more of a swing player than a true guard. These guards are good players, but none of them are great.
Baylor has a long bench, as I mentioned, but only one player is guaranteed and that is freshman NyLissa Smith, the second leading scorer on the team. She is an aggressive player that loves to attack the basket and hits the boards hard. She is always a possible double-double player. Now, I'm not sure we will see either of the other two bench players I listed. Both Aquina DeCosta (back from injury) and Queen Egbo saw time against Stanford but that was mostly because Cox really struggled against the smaller but quicker Stanford players. That could happen against the Huskies.
The Bears will try to use their size advantage with Brown and Cox to the fullest, posting up Brown and having Cox run the high-low to her. Cox is a threat from three point land, but just doesn't take that many averaging 1.4 attempts per game. But it usually keeps the defense honest. Juicy Landry (Why do I love typing that name?) is the only consistent three point threat but she only take around 5 per game. In fact, that 42.9% three point shooting is very deceiving as they only take around 10 per game. I don't see that being too much of a factor.
Defensively, Baylor will have trouble with covering UConn. The Huskies are just quicker along the front line. That is why you might see those freshmen off the bench. Brown and Cox cannot cover Samuelson and Collier. They will take them to the outside and Katie Lou will shoot if the sage back and Collier will drive by the slower Bears. Baylor will have to find a way to slow down the Husky fast break. UConn will run and run and run, tiring out the Bears and look to make it a fast breaking layup drill kind of game.
The question for UConn fans is once again the bench. Will anyone see any time on the court? Unless ONO has shown something different in practice or UConn get's into any foul trouble, I just don't see it. But when you have the more talented starting five and maybe the best conditioned players in WCBB, you can easily get away with it.
UConn is in great shape because of their difficult practices and the many minutes they play in games. for Baylor, one issue in playing your starters so few minutes on the season is they are not prepared as well to play extended minutes and tire out more quickly. I can see that happening in this game.
Final Prediction
Well, here we go. The last OOC game before the AAC conference games start. And there is a real possibility UConn could lost this game. Massey has UConn as a 2 point favorite and the Huskies with a 58% chance of winning.
To me, it's always about matchups and while many see the Baylor size advantage as the difference in the game, I see UConn's speed and quickness advantage as the way UConn will win this game. It's certainly won't be a blowout. Stanford beat Baylor by 5 and they have similar players to UConn to throw at the Bears only not as good. So I expect UConn to win this game.
UConn by 8+.
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