Day: Thursday
Date: January 31th, 2019
Location: The Yum
Louisville, Kentucky
Time: 7:00 PM
TV: ESPN
No. 1 UConn 18-1 (7-0) Louisville 19-1 (7-1)
Head to Head games
H: 8-1; A: 4-0; N: 5-0
3/17/93 L 71-74 H
1/31/06 W 75-68 A
2/13/07 W 84-56 H
3/5/07 W 76-50 N
1/12/08 W 92-71 A
3/11/08 W 65-59 N
1/26/09 W 93-65 H
3/10/09 W 75-36 N
4/7/09 W 76-54 N
2/7/10 W 84-38 A
1/15/11 W 78-55 H
2/7/12 W 56-46 A
1/15/13 W 72-58 H
4/9/13 W 93-60 N
2/9/14 W 81-64 H
3/3/14 W 68-48 A
3/10/14 W 72-52 N
2/12/18 W 69-58 H
Overview
UConn and Louisville had a long and fairly recent history together. The games were always entertaining and some were even under a 20 point UConn winning margin like last season for example. Jeff Walz is a very entertaining coach and the Cardinal have always had some really good players. Just not good enough to beat UConn.
This year, Louisville is having another great season. They are 19-1 at this time with the only loss to at the time No. 1 Notre Dame. UConn came out of their shooting slump in the first half against Central Florida, but then slipped right back into it in the second half.
Louisville's best wins were against at the time No. 19 Arizona State taking that game 58-56. They also beat at the time No. 19 Kentucky 80-75. Kentucky is still No. 19 and Arizona has since dropped to No. 21. They also beat an underrated Central Michigan team 72-68 and the team that just beat Notre Dame, North Carolina 73-66.
Stat by Stat Comparison
Leader is bolded
Leader is bolded
UCONN Louisville
81.9 Points Per Game 80.3
53.4 Opp Points Per Game 59.6
.490 Field Goal % .484
.334 Opp Field Goal % .370
.354 3 Point Field Goal % .379
.354 3 Point Field Goal % .379
.259 Opp 3 Point Field Goal % .273
.709 Free Throw % .743
41.9 Rebounds Per Game 36.8
34.9 Opp Rebounds Per Game 34.6
19.3 Assists Per Game 16.7
11.6 Turnovers Per Game 13.8
1.7 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.2
7.8 Steals Per Game 9.4
1.7 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.2
7.8 Steals Per Game 9.4
3.7 Blocks Per Game 4.3
UCONN
UConn Starters
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Senior Forward
3 Megan Walker
6'1" Sophomore Guard/Forward
13 Christyn Williams
5'11" Freshman Guard
UConn Bench
10 Kyra Irwin
6'2" Junior Forward
25 Molly Bent
5'9" Junior Guard
32 Batouly Camara
6'2" RS Junior Forward
4 Mykala Coombs
5'8" Sophomore Guard
20 Olivia Nelson-Ododa
6'4" Freshman Forward
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Louisville Head Coach
Jeff Walz
Louisville Starters
25 Asia Durr
5'10" Senior Guard
3 Sam Fuering
6'3" Senior Forward
23 Jazmine Jones
6' Junior Guard
11 Arica Carter
5'8" RS Senior Guard
33 Bionca Dunham
6'2" Junior Forward
Louisville Bench
1 Dana Evans
5'6" Sophomore Guard
21 Kylee Shook
6'4" Junior Forward
5 Mykasa Robinson
5'7" Freshman Guard
Game Analysis
Louisville is a little top heavy in how they operate their offense. Senior guard Asia Durr is the leading scorer on this team and has been one the of best players in the country since arriving on the scene. She has the complete offensive game. A great three point shooter, she doesn't need much room to get her shot off. And she has a terrific pull up jumper in the lane. She can get to the basket, but it's not what she does best. You know she is going to get her 15-20 shots per game. They will miss Myisha Hines-Allen who was a strong presence on the boards. She used her 6'2" frame well to either get to the basket with post moves or offensive rebound. Replacing her in the starting lineup is 6'2" Bionca Dunham, a solid post presence, but no Hines-Allen, especially on the boards and defensive end. While UConn is certainly missing Kia Nurse and Gabby Williams I'm not sure that the loss of Hines-Allen is the bigger impact to the final result.
Louisville starts Sam Fuerling, a 6'3" forward, Jazmine Jone, a 6' guard and Arica Carter a 5'8 guard who plays the point. In Fueling they have a nice player around the basket who can take the ball out to close to the 3 point line for shots. But her forte is carving out space in the post and receiving passes. Jones is a nice player with a quick first step to the basket. She's not a threat from deep so UConn will give her room. The point guard Carter is a very good distributor of the ball. But it's not hard to pile up the assists when you are passing to Durr. She's an improved three point shooter, and she is taking more of this this season, around 5 per game.
Off the bench, the sophomore point guard Dana Evans is a fun player to watch. She is really quick. Close to Dangerfield quick. She is a much improved player in both her shooting percentages and assist to turnover ratio. UConn has to work hard on defending her. Louisville has only one big off the bench in Kylee Shook. Shook is a BIG body and throws it around with reckless abandon. Not greatly skilled, she can cause some damage down low. And she is surprisingly effective from beyond the arc. I wouldn't be surprised to see her hit a three in this game.
Defensively, Louisville is strictly a man-to-man team. They so plenty of switching but certainly not on the UConn level. They really don't pressure the ball unless Evans is in the game. She is a real pest for the ball handler. But I saw her get beat to the basket several times when whoever she was guarding got a step on her. The battle with Dangerfield will be fun to watch. Louisville doesn't block a ton of shots and Shook is really the only one that has the ability to defend the basket. But she just doesn't get enough minutes to make a difference. Their help defense can be a step slow leaving a lot of open shots.
UConn will put Dangerfield on Durr and offer little help in double teams. And they will put pressure on the ball in order to take Louisville out of their offense. The Huskies have been sliding into a zone after pressuring the ball and it's been really effective. I expect to see more of that in this game unless Louisville forces them into man-to-man with good outside shoot and finding the gaps with Durr.
Offensively UConn will do what they do with ball movement and finding the open shot. There will be lanes open to the basket and with no real shot blocker there, UConn could have their way. If they can hit their outside shots, it will open up the middle for Collier to dominate.
Shonnie Schimmel, Angel McCoughtry and now Asia Durr. All great players. But what they have in common is UConn being able to shut them down on some level. They might get their points but it always takes a extraordinary number of shots to do it. I don't see much different in this game.
It will take a big effort on everyone else's part for Louisville to have a shot in this game. The home court advantage will be huge. It will be LOUD in favor of the Cards.
In last years game, several players that had no impact on that result will have to have an impact in this game in order for their team to win. For Louisville, Shook, Evans and Jones had 57 minutes played between them and 5 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists. For UConn, Megan Walker played only 2 minutes and had 2 assists. She will have to come close to a double-double in this one.
If UConn is hitting their shots I can't see Louisville holding UConn down offensively. Walz teams just don't play tough enough defense. And the Cardinals haven't seen a defense like UConn's other than Notre Dame at times and you saw what happened in that game.
I'm sure the second half of last years matchup will give Louisville plenty of confidence in this game and playing at home? It will be a tough one for the Huskies. But they will prevail.
UConn by 10+.
Louisville starts Sam Fuerling, a 6'3" forward, Jazmine Jone, a 6' guard and Arica Carter a 5'8 guard who plays the point. In Fueling they have a nice player around the basket who can take the ball out to close to the 3 point line for shots. But her forte is carving out space in the post and receiving passes. Jones is a nice player with a quick first step to the basket. She's not a threat from deep so UConn will give her room. The point guard Carter is a very good distributor of the ball. But it's not hard to pile up the assists when you are passing to Durr. She's an improved three point shooter, and she is taking more of this this season, around 5 per game.
Off the bench, the sophomore point guard Dana Evans is a fun player to watch. She is really quick. Close to Dangerfield quick. She is a much improved player in both her shooting percentages and assist to turnover ratio. UConn has to work hard on defending her. Louisville has only one big off the bench in Kylee Shook. Shook is a BIG body and throws it around with reckless abandon. Not greatly skilled, she can cause some damage down low. And she is surprisingly effective from beyond the arc. I wouldn't be surprised to see her hit a three in this game.
Defensively, Louisville is strictly a man-to-man team. They so plenty of switching but certainly not on the UConn level. They really don't pressure the ball unless Evans is in the game. She is a real pest for the ball handler. But I saw her get beat to the basket several times when whoever she was guarding got a step on her. The battle with Dangerfield will be fun to watch. Louisville doesn't block a ton of shots and Shook is really the only one that has the ability to defend the basket. But she just doesn't get enough minutes to make a difference. Their help defense can be a step slow leaving a lot of open shots.
UConn will put Dangerfield on Durr and offer little help in double teams. And they will put pressure on the ball in order to take Louisville out of their offense. The Huskies have been sliding into a zone after pressuring the ball and it's been really effective. I expect to see more of that in this game unless Louisville forces them into man-to-man with good outside shoot and finding the gaps with Durr.
Offensively UConn will do what they do with ball movement and finding the open shot. There will be lanes open to the basket and with no real shot blocker there, UConn could have their way. If they can hit their outside shots, it will open up the middle for Collier to dominate.
Game Prediction
Shonnie Schimmel, Angel McCoughtry and now Asia Durr. All great players. But what they have in common is UConn being able to shut them down on some level. They might get their points but it always takes a extraordinary number of shots to do it. I don't see much different in this game.
It will take a big effort on everyone else's part for Louisville to have a shot in this game. The home court advantage will be huge. It will be LOUD in favor of the Cards.
In last years game, several players that had no impact on that result will have to have an impact in this game in order for their team to win. For Louisville, Shook, Evans and Jones had 57 minutes played between them and 5 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists. For UConn, Megan Walker played only 2 minutes and had 2 assists. She will have to come close to a double-double in this one.
If UConn is hitting their shots I can't see Louisville holding UConn down offensively. Walz teams just don't play tough enough defense. And the Cardinals haven't seen a defense like UConn's other than Notre Dame at times and you saw what happened in that game.
I'm sure the second half of last years matchup will give Louisville plenty of confidence in this game and playing at home? It will be a tough one for the Huskies. But they will prevail.
UConn by 10+.
Love the analysis DD! I'd love to see Meg make a statement in this game.
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