Sunday, March 5, 2023

Doggy's UConn/Villanova III Pregame Report

                                                                          


    No. 9 UConn Huskies           VS         No. 11 Villanova Wildcats                 28-5 (18-2)                                               28-5 (17-3)


Monday, March 6th, 7:00
Mohegan Sun Arena
Uncasville, Ct 
TV - FS1 

VILLANOVA | UCONN LEADS 41-18 
H: 19-7 | A: 18-8 | N: 4-3 

01/22/00 #1 UConn 79, VU 46 Villanova, Pa. 
02/04/01 #2 UConn 75, #24 VU 39 Storrs, Conn. 
02/18/01 #3 UConn 61, #25 VU 43 Villanova, Pa. 
01/19/02 #1 UConn 93, VU 60 Villanova, Pa. 
03/04/02 #1 UConn 83, VU 39 Piscataway, N.J. 
01/29/03 #2 UConn 58, #20 VU 38 Storrs, Conn. 
03/11/03 #18 VU 52, #1 UConn 48 Piscataway, N.J. 
02/28/04 VU 59, #1 UConn 56 Villanova, Pa. 
01/15/05 #16 UConn 73, VU 57 Storrs, Conn. 
12/08/05 #8 UConn 72, VU 56 Villanova, Pa
02/24/07 #3 UConn 92, VU 49 Hartford, Conn. 
01/03/08 #1 UConn 88, VU 38 Villanova, Pa. 
02/24/09 #1 UConn 74, VU 47 Storrs, Conn. 0
3/09/09 #1 UConn 72, VU 42 Hartford, Conn. 
01/23/10 #1 UConn 74, VU 35 Villanova, Pa. 
01/05/11 #2 UConn 81, VU 35 Storrs, Conn. 
01/14/12 #3 UConn 72, VU 49 Villanova, Pa. 
01/29/13 #3 UConn 76, VU 43 Hartford, Conn. 
12/22/20 #3 UConn 90, VU 52 Villanova, Pa. 
03/07/21 #1 UConn 84, VU 39 Uncasville, Conn.
02/09/22 VU 72, #8 UConn 69 Hartford, Conn. 
03/07/22 #6 UConn 70, VU 40 Uncasville, Conn.
01/29/23 #5 UConn 63, VU 58 Hartford, Conn.
02/18/23 #6 UConn 60, # 21 VU 51, Villanova, Pa. 

    Villanova Overview

Villanova beat Creighton in a hard fought battle 63-61 in their semi-final game. Maddy Siegrist was outstanding in this game and the only double digit scorer for the Wildcats. She had 37 points on 14-21 shooting and 8-9 from the foul line. She added 11 rebounds and 4 assists. A BE player of the year performance for sure.    

The rest of the team shot 10-31 from the field,  5-17 on threes and 1-2 from the free throw line. Maddy carried the day.  
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Villanova Wildcats


   Villanova Starters
Villanova Bench 





 Game Analysis

Here we go again. It's 1 vs 2 for the Big East Tournament championship. UConn won the first game at home 63-58 and the second game at Villanova 60-51. Both games were tight but UConn was just the better team those days. I believe they still are.  

Last season Villanova upset the Huskies on UConn's home court 72-69 and then UConn  hammered the Wildcats in the BE tournament final 70-40. The Huskies won't be taking the Wildcats lightly. 

Of course, returning Big East POY 6'2" senior Maddy Siegrist leads the way for Villanova and is the leading candidate to repeat. She is leading the team in scoring at 29.2PPG and rebounds at 9.3 RPG. She is shooting at 52.0% and hitting her three pointers at a 37.7% clip.  All better numbers than she had last season. She is still in the conversation for National POY. In the first game against the Huskies this year she had 25 points and 8 rebounds but it took her 23 shots to do it and she was 1-6 on threes. In the second game she had only 21 points and 2 rebounds on 8-22 shooting. She was 1-6 on threes again.    

Returning starter 5'9" sophomore guard Lucy Olsen is second leading scorer for Nova at 12.3 PPG. She also leads the team in assists at 4.4 per game.    She is shooting very well in three point shooting percentage at 37.0%. A great number. I really like her game. She is fiesty like Nika. It will be fun when they face each other. In the first match up she had 19 points on 7-17 shooting and only 1-7 on threes. UConn did a good job in the second game, holding her to 13 points on 6-14 shooting and 1-4 on threes. 

The third returning starter is Maddie Burke, a 6' junior guard. She averages 7.6 PPG and has taken the most three point shots on the team at around 6 per game. And she shoots them really well at 40.7%. She doesn't get to the FT line much but she is 17-17 for the season. She had 6 points when they first played UConn this year. And in the second game she only scored 3 points.

Christina Dalce is the only other size on the ream besides Siegrist at 6'2. The sophomore forward is a terrific shot blocker and averages over 2 per game in only 22 minutes per game. She won't add much scoring in this game or any game for that matter. She only averages 7.2 PPG and shoots a low persentage at 41.2. She had only 1 point and 5 rebounds, but she did have 4 blocks in the first match up. In the second game she had only 1 point and didn't blocks any shots.

The final starter is Brooke Mullen, a 5'11" senior guard. She is a terrible shooter, only 27.7% from the field and 23.7% on ther 93 threes she has taken. She has 117 assists and only 45 turnovers. She had only 2 points in the first match up. And in the second game she had 4 points 6 assists. 

It looks like Villanova only goes 7 deep although they did go a few more in the Creighton game.  Bella Runyan, a 5'11" junior guard, and Kaitlyn Orihel, a 5'10" sohpmore guard, round out the rotation. Between them they had only 4 points combined in the first match up. In the second game they had 9 points (all Runyan) and 2 assists.

One thing Nova does is take care of the ball. They have a 1.7 assist to turnover ratio and average only 10 turnovers per game. Wow.  

The Huskies seem to be playing on a better level than the last few games of the Big East regular season schedule. They are now truely going 7 deep with both Fudd and Ducharme available. 

It will be interesting to see how they guard Siegrist. If they can slow her down as they have done in the past, UConn should pull this out. My guess is they use a combination of Griffin and Edwards, but don't be surprised of Juhasz and Ducharme gets some time covering her as well. The Huskies will mix it up.       

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Final Prediction

So how will this game play out? 

Size matters, and UConn goes 6'5", 6'3", 6'1, 6'1 and 5'10" with 6'2 and 5'11 off the bench. Villanova goes 6'2", 6'2", 6', 5'11 and 5'9 with 5'11" and 5'10" off the bench. The Huskies have to take advantage of that. It could mean a huge rebounding margin for the Huskies. 

UConn's two bigs both had double doubles in the last game they played against each other. No reason for this not to continue. Edwards and Juhasz are both playing at a high level in the tournament.    

Nova struggled from deep against the Huskies in both games. And they struggled against Creighton from deep as well. Villanova need to hit a good percentage of their their threes in this game to have a chance of beating UConn. 

The Huskies have been struggling from deep as well but I am hopeful that Fudd will bounce back and loosen up the defense and give the Husky bigs more room to operate on the inside. Having both Fudd and Lopez Senechal on the court at the same time is a game changer.

Will fatigue be a factor in this game? Well, UConn was able to keep their minutes down with the starters only playing in the low 30's for minutes. The two stars for Villanova, Siegrist and Olsen had to play 40 and 37 minutes respectively.  

UConn has more talent on the court even with Siegrist being the best player. Gotta go with the Huskies by 6+.     

GO HUSKIES!!   

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