Sunday, March 19, 2023

UConn/Baylor Round of 32 Pregame Report

                                                           

    2 Seed UConn Huskies           VS        7 Seed Baylor Lady Bears                30-5 (18-2)                                               20-12 (10-8)


Monday, March 20th, 9:00 PM
Gampel Arena
Storrs, Ct 
TV - ESPN

BAYLOR | UCONN LEADS 
5-4 H: 2-2 | A: 1-2 | N: 2-0
 
04/04/10 #1 UConn, #14 Baylor 50 San Antonio, Texas 
11/16/10 #1 UConn 65, #2 Baylor 64 Hartford, Conn. 
12/18/11 #1 Baylor 66, #2 UConn 61 Waco, Texas 
02/18/13 #1 Baylor 76, #3 UConn 70 Hartford, Conn. 
01/13/14 #1 UConn 66, #7 Baylor 55 Waco, Texas 
11/17/16 #3 UConn 72, #2 Baylor 61 Storrs, Conn. 
01/03/19 #8 Baylor 68, #1 UConn 57 Waco, Texas 
01/09/20 #6 Baylor 74, #1 UConn 58 Hartford, Conn. 
03/29/21 #1 UConn 69, #5 Baylor 67 San Antonio, Texas

Baylor Overview

Baylor has had an up and down season. But they finished the season on a 7-9 and 4-6 over their last 10 games. They did beat Villanova, Iowa State, Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma, all ranked teams when they played them. 

They used three point shooting to outgun Alabama to get to this game.

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Baylor Lady Bears




   Baylor Starters
Baylor Bench 


 


 Game Analysis

This isn't your momma's Baylor team. Or Mulkey's. They just won their 20th game in beating Alabama in the first round. And it took their best shooting game of the season to so it.

I'm sure you all remember the last time these two teams met. The Huskies pulled out a close one in the Elite Eight game 69-67 with some controvery at the end of the game. 

There are a couple of players that played in that game. Bickle played 6 minutes and Andrews played 11 minutes. They scored 2 points each.

UConn had two players as well in that game that are playing now. Edwards played 24 minutes, scoring 4 points and grabbing 7 rebounds. Griffin played 25 minutes but didn't do much while on the court. She had 2 points, 3 rebounds and 2 blocks. 

So basically these are two different teams.

Sarah Andrews, a 5'6" junior guard is the leading scorer, at 15 PPG. She is a best player that is a holdover from Mulkey's roster. She averages 4.34 APG and only 2.6 turnover per game. She is not a great shooter, making her shots at a 38% clip and 34% from threes. But she takes more shots by far than anyone else on the team. If she is hot like against Alabama, that is a good thing. Not so much if she reverts to her averages. 

Her backcourt mate and ball handler, Jadan Owen is a 5'8" senior transferred in to Baylor from UCLA a couple of years ago. A quick guard, she is averaging only 7.8 PPG. But she is a terrific ball handler averaging 5.8 assists per game. And like Andrews, under 3 turnovers per game. Her job is to get the ball to open shooters. She is shooting 37% from the field and 28% on threes. With those numbers it's better she passes than shoots.

Caitlin Bickel is entering her 10th year at Baylor. Ok, not really but it feels that way. The 6'1" Grad Student, is the only size on this team. And while she is not tall,  she is pretty wide. Second on the team in scoring at 12.2 PPG, she is second on the team in rebounding at 7.1 RPG. Bickel is a pretty good shooter make them at a 51% clip. She doesn't take many threes but she is a threat from deep at 38%. She also gets to the FT line more than anyone else and makes 81% of them. 

Ja'Mee Asberry, a 5'5" grad student transfer from Oklahoma State is in her second year at Baylor. Quick and shifty, she had the game of her life against Alabama, making 7 of 13 three pointers. On the season she only hits them at a 33% clip. She is third on the team in scoring at 11.3 PPG. 

The last starter is Bella Fontleroy, a 6' freshman forward. Bella is averaging 8.7 PPG and 5.1 RPG. Great stats for a first year player. She had no bigger rebound than the offensive board she had on a missed free throw at the end of the game which allowed Bayor to get a four point lead with 15 seconds left to seal the win. 

They aer pretty much a two player team off the bench. 

Darianna Littlepage-Buggs (great name) is a 6'1" freshman forward. She is the only other double digit scorer at 10.8 PPG. She only scores from close in shooting 51% from the field. Not a big player, she has a knack for rebounding averaging 9.3 RPG. And she leads the team in blocked shots with 28 on the season. 

Jana Van Gytenbeek, a 5'7" junior guard, may not see a lot of time in this game. She just doesn't add much to the offense or defense against a team like UConn. 

It should be interesting to see how Baylor defends UConn. The Lady Bears might be the smallest team UConn faces this season. Similar to Creighton in stature, Baylor has no one to match up with Juhasz, and maybe Bickel will guard her? Then who guards Edwards. The Huskies will have to take advantage of their size like they did against Vermont. The size advantage is not only in the front court. 6'1" wing, Lou Lopez Senechal presents a big challenge for the three guards, who go 5'5", 5'6" and 5'8. Both Nika and Fudd have that size advantage as well.  

But that size advantage can be negated on defense for UConn. Baylor will force the two bigs to guard on the outside drawing them out for create lanes to the basket. That could be the plan but its a tough one to execute. 

The UConn avantage is they can take out Dorka and put in Griffin. Aubrey presents a different issue for Baylor to deal with.      

Final Prediction

Between Alabama and Baylor, I was rooting for the Lady Bears to win. I believe they are a better matchup for the Huskies.

Baylor is too small and they don't shoot well enough. Their pesky defense could present the occasional problem for UConn but the Huskies will hit the offensive boards hard to grab a ton of misses. 

If Baylor shoots like they did against Alabama they could make a game of it, but that would be an unusual happenstance. They only shoot 42% from the field and 32% on threes for the season. Geno will note how hot they were from the outside and focus on covering the three ball. That might allow Baylor to drive to the basket, but with Dorka and Edwards inside to pretect the basket, it will probably not be very effective.

There is a reason that Baylor was 19-12 coming into the tournament. They aren't a very good team. 

UConn by 20+.

GO HUSKIES!!
 

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