DoggyDaddy's 2/8/2016 UConn/South Carolina Pre Game Report

UConn at South Carolina

Monday Feb 8th 2016

Colonial Life Arena
7:00

ESPN2

   

 No. 1 UConn 22-0                                 No. 2 South Carolina 22-0

 

Head to Head

12/17/07 W 97-39 H

12/28/08 W 77-48 A
2/9/15 W 86-61 H

 

Highlights from last years matchup from a UConn perspective

Here is one from a South Carolina Perspective 


 Overview
 

Well, here we go again. The big matchup of the year. This time it's No. 2 South Carolina versus No. 1 UConn. Like last season, ESPN has been building this up for the last several weeks, mentioning it at every game they broadcast. Last year Geno sarcastically said, it's the "biggest game in history". Will he say that again?

South Carolina come into this game undefeated at 22-0. Their OOC schedule was stronger this season, pretty four ranked teams, defeating No. 6 Ohio State 88-80, No. 16 Arizona State 60-58, No. 14 (at the time) Duke 66-55 now ranked UCLA 68-65. They have met a six ranked teams in their conference schedule, beating Kentucky twice 73-62 and 78-68, beating Texas A&M twice  59-58 and 70-63, over-rated Missouri 83-58 and Mississippi State 57-51.

UConn comes into this game playing their best basketball of the season. Since the South Florida game, UConn has been more dominant in AAC play over the next seven games than they have in any other stretch.

UConn has played and beaten five top twenty-five teams in their OOC schedule, Ohio State 100-56, Notre Dame 91-81, DePaul 86-70, Florida State 73-49 and Maryland 83-73. In conference, UConn beat ranked South Florida 75-59.

 

 

Team Stat Comparison with NCAA rank in parenthesis 

Points per Game - UConn 90.0 (1), South Carolina 75.8 (24)
Assist/Turnover - UConn 1.80 (2), South Carolina 1.07 (46)
Assists per Game - UConn 22.0 (2), South Carolina 14.9 (62)
Blocks per Game - UConn 6.4 (4), South Carolina 5.5 (19)
Field Goal Percentage - UConn 53.3 (1), South Carolina 46.6 (11)
Field Goal Percentage Defense - UConn 33.5 (3), South Carolina 34.9 (29)
Free Throw Percentage - UConn 80.4 (1), South Carolina 65.3 (275)
Rebounds Per game - UConn 41.1 (60), South Carolina 41.5 (54)
Scoring Defense - UConn 48.5 (1), South Carolina 56.5 (37)
  Scoring Margin - UConn 41.6 (1), South Carolina 19.3 (8)
Steals per Game - UConn 12.4 (5), South Carolina 8.4 (128)
Three Point FG Defense - UConn 31.8 (223), South Carolina 27.9 (51)
Three Point Field Goals per Game - UConn 7.7 (27), South Carolina 5.2 (179)
Three Point Field Goal Percentage - UConn 36.2 (24), South Carolina 31.4 (148)
Turnovers per Game - UConn 12.2 (8), South Carolina 14.0 (45)

 

The stats speak for themselves. UConn has been cleaning up against the weak AAC and it shows in the numbers. But the defensive numbers for SC are made on the backs of the weak shooting SEC teams.
 

 

UConn Starters

 

30 Breanna Stewart 

6'4" Senior Forward

Stewart is having an amazing year. She is averaging more points, shooting a higher percentage from the field, on 3's and from the FT line. She is averaging more rebounds, steals, blocks, assists. You name it, she is having a better year doing it than any other in her career. What is amazing is that over the last seven games, she is averaging 19.7 points, 8.3 rebound, 4.7 assists, 3.7 blocks, 2.3 steals. And only 1 turnover per game. All of this in 25 minutes per game. Amazing.
 

2015-16 Stats
22 Games - MPG 28.5, FG% .595, 3PT% .424, PPG 19.4 RPG 8.2, APG 4.3, 36 steals, 67 blocks

3 Morgan Tuck
6'2" RS Junior Forward

 

Tuck played in her second game since resting her knee and at times looked like the old Tuck. But there was still plenty of rust after missing four games. But she brings back a strong body to help defend the tough South Carolina front line. Geno kept her minutes down in both games but I doubt there will be limitations in the game Monday night. Before the injury, Tuck was having a wonderful season. She will soon be back at that same level.   

 

2015-16 Stats

  17 Games - MPG 27.2, FG% .532, 3PT% .333, PPG 14.2, RPG 5.8, APG 32., 11 steals, 7 blocks

 

4 Moriah Jefferson
5'7" Senior Guard

Jefferson has taken her game to another level the last three games. She is 19-28 from the field, 21 assists, only 5 turnovers, 11 steals and intense defensive pressure.

 

Her speed is as much a difference maker as Stewarts length.    

 

2015-16 Stats

   21 Games - MPG 30.9, FG% .589, 3PT% .408, PPG 13.5, RPG 2.6, APG 5.6, 60 steals, 1 block

 

11 Kia Nurse

6' Sophomore Guard

  

Did her last game against East Carolina break the drought? I have a feeling it did. And boy oh boy, does that change the dynamics for an already explosive UConn offense.

 

Her defense, hustle and intensity are unmatched at the off guard position in WCBB.  



 

2015-16 Stats

   21 Games - MPG 27.4, FG% .428, 3PT% .330, PPG 9.6, RPG 2.0, APG 2.9, 34 steals, 6 blocks

 

 

33 Katie Lou Samuelson

6'3" Freshman Guard/Forward

 

The game against East Carolina was not exactly what Samuelson wanted prior to such a big game. But on the bright side, I thought her defense was terrific, taking a couple of offensive fouls and forcing a few turnovers. Can she raise her game in a game this big?



 

2015-16 Stats

   22 Games - MPG 21.3, FG% .435, 3PT% .339, PPG 9.5, RPG 3.2, APG 2.4, 21 steals, 3 blocks
 

UConn Bench

 

 

15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Sophomore Forward

I suppose the questions about her playing well against bigger teams will only be answered when she does it. So far that hasn't happened, but I expect that she will "rise" to the occasion. No bigger challenge than the South Carolina front line.

Her play in limited minutes has been nothing short of spectacular. Geno's comments have been positively glowing.

  

2015-16 Stats

   22 Games - MPG 19.3, FG% .630, 3PT% .000, PPG 10.0 RPG 6.1, APG 1.3, 46 steals, 10 blocks 

 

24 Napheesa Collier

6'1 Freshman Forward/Guard

Napheesa has had a real freshman season, playing great one day and clueless another. I felt for sure she would adjust to the college game quickly, but it's taking time. The good news is that her shooting over the last 6 games has been off the charts at 25-34. And after missing two free throws in the opening game she has gone 24 for her last 25 from the line. Talk about efficiency!  

 

2015-16 Stats

   22 Games - MPG 19.4 FG% .549, 3PT% .000, PPG 7.4, RPG 6.0, APG .9, 35 steals, 33 blocks

51 Natalie Butler
6'5" RS Sophomore Center



Natalie is still rounding into shape. Geno is limiting her minutes. But if you take her stats and give her the minutes she had at Georgetown, she is remarkably playing at the same level when on the court.

 

Her ppg would be 15.6. Her rpg would be 11.9. Her assists would be 2.99. She also would average 1.7 steals and 2.1 blocks. Right there with her Big East FOY numbers.     

 

2015-16 Stats

   12 Game - MPG 15.4, FG% .563, 3PT% .000, PPG 6.8, RPG 5.2, APG 1.3, 9 steals, 11 blocks
 

12 Saniya Chong
5'8" Junior Guard

  

I'm always interested in stats. But the most important stat for Chong is not on the offensive end or defensive end. Her most important stat is minutes played.

Over the last 11 games, she has played double digit minutes in 10 of them. She has played 20+ minutes in 4 of her last 6 games. I suspect she will see minutes against South Carolina as well. It's great to see her managing the IT band injury so well. Kudos to Ms. Ragle.
  

2015-16 Stats

   18 Games - MPG 16.1, FG% .441, 3PT% .409, PPG 5.3, RPG 1.6, APG 1.3, 13 steals, 2 blocks

 

No offense to the rest of the team but I think we will see much of them in this game. But the stats are current.
 

 

22 Courtney Ekmark

6' Sophomore Guard

 

  

2015-16 Stats

   19 Games - MPG 10.4 FG% .486, 3PT% .360, PPG 2.5, RPG 1.3, APG 0.8, 5 steals, 1 block

 

20 Tierney Lawlor

5'7" Junior Guard

 



2015-16 Stats

   18 Games - MPG 3.3, FG% .500, 3PT% .400, PPG .5, RPG 0.2, APG 0.2, 1 steals, 0 blocks

22 Briana Pulido 
5'7" Senior Guard

 

2015-16 Stats

   15 Games - MPG 2.5, FG% .273, 3PT% .167, PPG 0.5, RPG 0.1, APG 0.1, 0 steals, 0 blocks

  

 

UConn Complete Stats

 



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South Carolina Starters

 25 Tiffany Mitchell 5'9" Senior Guard

Last year Mitchell was the star of the team. She was the only AA and deserved that honor. She is still the leader on the team but it's clear her play is not what it was last season. Early on she was recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the summertime USA play. But it's clear she is not the same player.  Her sling shot three pointer from the shoulder is not nearly as accurate, shooting only 33.6% and her field goal percentage is only 41.9%. Both numbers are way down from last year. She is still a very smart player and at times she still has the knack of taking and making big shots. She loves to drive the right side of the lane and when confronted with the defense, spin to the middle and hit a little fade away in the lane or a pass to a big in the post. These are not the stats of an AA player, but she still might make it on reputation.        

 

2015-16: MPG 29.6, FG% .419, 3PT% .336, PPG 14.6, RPG 2.9, APG 2.4, 38 steals, 4 blocks

 

5 Kadisha Sessions 5'8" Senior Guard

 

Sessions is still starting at point guard and does a decent job in facilitating the offense. Last season she really struggled from the field, but she has shown marked improvement. Even her three point shot can't be ignored, although she is still hesitant to take them. Sessions loves to come off screens and will use them to drive the lane and either try to get to the basket of dish off to a big.  She does play excellent defense. She likes to get in the face of the offensive player. It's clear that she has become the emotional leader of the team with the graduation of Welch.    

 

2015-16: MPG 26.3, FG% .500, 3PT% .355, PPG 6.5, RPG 2.6, APG 2.4, 44 steals, 2 blocks

23 Tina Roy 5'11" Senior Guard

 

Roy was a starter at the beginning of the season but after several games, Staley switched to Dozier. I think she liked the three point shooting Roy to come off the bench. With the Dozier injury, Roy is back in the starting lineup. She is clearly a three point specialist. She has taken 142 shots and 122 of them have been three pointers.  Defensively, she is strong but not particularly quick and might have trouble keeping any of the UConn guards in front of her. She doesn't turn the ball over much but that is because she receives the ball ready to shoot the three. She rarely is handling the ball in any fashion.      

 

2015-16: MPG 20.8, FG% .338, 3PT% .369, PPG 6.6, RPG 1.4, APG 2.4, 12 steals, 1 block

 

  22 A'ja Wilson 6'4" Sophomore Forward

 

Wilson is the star of this team now and will be until she graduates. She has improved in two ways. One, her conditioning. She appears to have lost a little weight and is a little quicker around the basket. She has also been able to play more minutes at a time without getting fatigued. The second improvement has been mental. She plays with more confidence, is much more aggressive in getting to the basket and more aggressive with her help defense, blocking many more shots than last year. She is very left handed strong but she will go to her right and occasionally use her off hand. She likes to shoot the mid-range jumper, but I would bet she only shoots around 40% on those shots. She loves the ball at the foul line and then either use a screen or just strides past the defender, getting to the basket in only 2 dribbles. She is LONG. She has learned to embrace the physicality of the game, she definitely is a good rebounder.      

 

2015-16: MPG 26.8, FG% .537, 3PT% .000, PPG 16.7, RPG 9.2, APG 1.4, 13 steals, 63 blocks

 

41 Alana Coates 6'4" Junior Center

 

Caotes has also improved this her junior season.She was FOY in the SEC two years ago and is the third leading scorer on this team. She leads the team in rebounds averaging 10 rebounds a game. Big and strong and with an attitude, she still lets the play frustrate her and impact her decision making. Just a little immaturity that should be gone by now. I've been impressed with her agility for a player that size, and she runs the court well, often beating guards down the court. She had a great performance in the game leading up to the UConn encounter scoring 27 points against Kentucky. I love her ability to offensive rebounds and follow that with a nice put back. She does that often. She seems like a future pro to me.  

 

2015-16: MPG 26.3, FG% .691, 3PT% .000, PPG 12.9, RPG 10.0, APG 1.2, 21 steals, 34 blocks

 

 

South Carolina Bench

 

 

1 Bianca Cuevas 5'6" Sophomore Guard

  

I said last year that most freshman point guards will struggle early on, and Cuevas was not any different. Her problem is that she is playing worse this season. Her shooting percentage are down and her ball handling and decision making is not any better. It must be difficult for Staley to play her important minutes. I do believe she is almost as quick as Jefferson but that is where the comparison ends.  Her defense is erratic but her quickness allows her to disrupt slow moving offenses.       

 

2015-16: MPG 16.7, FG% .367, 3PT% .178, PPG 6.7, RPG 1.5, APG 1.5, 26 steals, 0 blocks

 

40 Jatarie White 6'4" Sophomore Forward

 

Last season White was in and out of the lineup all year. She missed several games with a stress fracture in her foot. Then she was out with the flu. So, the consensus was that her poor performance was due to rust and she would be much improved in he sophomore season. Unfortunately, last year is being duplicated this season. She is only getting 14 mpg and lower against the tougher teams. That is always more of an indication of how a player is performing. Her stats are dismal, particularly her 35.3% shooting percentage. How does someone 6'4 miss so many shots? I remember a South Carolina fan telling me that White was shooting well from beyond the arc in practice and that would be a weapon. White is 0-3 on threes. Looks like that weapon if firing blanks.              

 

2015-16: MPG 14.0, FG% .353, 3PT% .000, PPG 3.2, RPG 3.3, APG .5, 5 steals, 10 blocks

 

24 Sarah Imovbioh 6'2" Senior Forward

  

Imovbioh took advantage of the 5th year rule in transferring from Virginia to South Carolina and came to the Gamecocks with high expectations. Here is what a well known South Carolina fan said about her - "Imovbioh is only a one-year fix for the loss of former team captain Aleigsha Welch, but she's a great fix. She is athletic and tough like Welch was, and is a great rebounder like Welch was as well. She also was a career double-digit scorer at UVA, and led the ACC in FG% her freshman year and was 3rd in FG% last season, so she's also a very efficient scorer as well. She isn't much of a shot-blocker, but she checks off all the other boxes. As long as there isn't any huge difference in philosophies and schemes between UVA and USC, Sarah should acclimate quickly and should be a huge contributor next season".

 

Huge contributor? Not so much.

 

2015-16: MPG 13.5, FG% .603, 3PT% .000, PPG 4.4, RPG 5.0, APG .4, 7 steals, 3 blocks

4 Doniya Cliney 6'0" RS freshman Guard

  

Cliney sat out all of last season with an injury and was a medical redshirt. She didn't come back until eight games ago. With Dozier out she might get a few minutes against UConn. She is a big guard in the Nurse mold and very aggressive on offense.    

 

2015-16: MPG 10.3, FG% .400, 3PT% .333, PPG 2.8, RPG .9, APG .4, 2 steals, 0 blocks

 

OUT FOR THE GAME

31 Asia Dozier 6' Senior Forward

     

   

    2015-16: MPG 16.5, FG% .395 3PT% .328, PPG 4.1, RPG 1.0, APG 2.0, 11 steals, 3 blocks

 

 South Carolina Stats
 

 

 Game Analysis

Last year UConn had to consider the three point shot when defending SC. Mitchell was a big threat from beyond the arc and they were not a bad three point shooting team. Not so this year. Mitchell's shooting is much worse this season. It's clear that the Gamecocks will go inside to Wilson and Coates. Staley has come out and even said that. It's not that difficult to understand that strategy. It's their strength and if they can get Tuck and Stewart into foul trouble. I believe it's their only chance to beat the Huskies. Mitchell, Sessions and Roy will be looking for entry passes to the bigs.  

SC are also down a guard in Dozier. Not that she added much to the offense but it forces Roy to start and that shrinks their small number of guards that they can trust. Roy has had some crazy hot games, going 5-11, 7-12, 3-3, 4-6, 4-7, and 3-4 at different times. Right now she is in a 4-20 slump her last three games.

They really only have Cuevas with any experience other than Cliney who has played only eight games in her career. It would be a tough spot for her to be thrown in, and I'm sure the UConn defense would be licking their chops.

So, back to the bigs, Wilson and Coates will be a handful. Both are so strong in the post once they receive the ball. And if they miss the first attempt but both can rebound the miss and put the ball back up quickly. Coates and Wilson have also improved in their passing to each other and the high-low game has been more effective.

Defensively, UConn will put a ton of pressure on the guards as soon as they inbound trying to get SC to have as little time on the shot clock to set up their offense. The Huskies will look to turn over South Carolina as they have every team. Once SC sets up, they will be looking to get the ball to the posts. UConn will try to prevent that two ways. One is to keep the pressure on the guards to make that entry pass difficult or two, sag back from the weaker shooters and front the posts. I'm more worried about the blind dog finding a bone and the SC poor shooters get hot. So I hope they just pressure all the time.
     
Offensive, UConn will try to create offense with their defense as I already mentioned. When Jefferson, Nurse and Williams are in the game, look for that to happen often. The South Carolina guards are not the best ball handlers.

When in the half court, UConn will pull out the South Carolina bigs with Stewart and Tuck on the perimeter. Last year Tuck drove past Coates several times. Coates appears a little. Can she stay with Tuck when she has the ball outside the arc. The Stewart/Wilson matchup is very interesting. Stewie will take her outside all game long. That opens up the middle for Jefferson and Nurse to drive to the basket without the Gamecocks best shot blocker there to defend.

UConn is shooting the three much better the second half of the season. Stewart, Jefferson, Samuelson and to a lesser extent, Tuck and Nurse are all solid threats.

South Carolina really has matchup problems in this game. Mitchell can't be 100% after that bad fall in their last game. Can she keep up with Jefferson? She is not big enough to handle Nurse. Sessions is a very good defensive player. But does she cover Jefferson or Nurse? She is quick but Jefferson has a big advantage. Roy and Samuelson should be a matchup that favors UConn. And as good as Wilson and Coates are, Stewart and Tuck are better.

There is no comparisons when you look at the bench. Cuevas really has struggled this season. She will make an exciting play here and there but her shooting and decision making will hurt SC. Dawn will have a quick hook in this game.

The big matchup is going to be fun to watch. Four excellent players that are totally different. Which player(s) will impose their will on the game? You can guess who I think it will be.....lol.        
      
 

Final Prediction

Last season Massey had UConn a 13 point favorite with an 89% chance of winning.

Sagarin had UConn as a 14 point favorite.

It's not that much different now. Massey has UConn winning 75-63 with the Huskies having an 86% chance of winning.

Sagarin has UConn a 16 point favorite including the 3 points for the home court advantage for South Carolina.

Remember that last years game had UConn winning 87-62. How do the teams compare to last years version.

On some levels, you could say UConn is better. Certainly UConn is not the three point shooting team they were with KML on the team. And they don't block as many shots with Stokes gone. But to me the overall play has been better.

From what I have seen in the many South Carolina games that I have seen, they are not as good as last year's version. They have had several close games that they easily could have lost. It's clear when you compare the stats from last year to this season coming into the UConn game. I posted this year's stats earlier in the blog. I used my preview from last year as a shell for this one. When I looked up the numbers and the national rankings I would overlay last years. I was shocked by the difference. Last years SC team had many categories that were ranked in the top ten and some in the top five. Not so this year. In fact EVERY single statistic I listed, the Gamecock were worse and not by a little bit.

So, what does this mean? I'm pretty sure UConn will win this game. I'll say 10+ points because weird stuff will happen that will keep it close.