Doggy's UConn/South Carolina Pre Game Report

UCONN vs South Carolina Thursday

February 1st, 2018

 Colonial Life Arena

Columbia, South Carolina  

Time: 7:00

TV: ESPN

No. 1 UConn                                                No. 8 South Carolina      20-0 (9-0)                                                               18-3 (7-2)

Head to Head

UConn leads 5-0

12/17/07 W 97-39 H
12/28/08 W 77-48 A
2/9/15 W 87-62 H
2/8/16 W 66-54 A
2/13/16 W 66-55 H

Highlights from last years game

Team Overviews

It's been a tough year for South Carolina. They lost two of their starters to graduation in Davis and Gray. They lost their expected starting guard in Bianca Cuevas-Moore to a season ending injury. Their 5th year Senior transfer Lindsey Spann has been battling injuries and has missed several games and their bench forward Harrigan has also been battling a knee injury. One of their three losses was pretty much directly related to an ankle sprain that their start player A'ja Wilson suffered.

That being said, they are still 18-3 and ranked in the top ten. Their three losses are to Notre Dame, Tennessee and Missouri. All ranked teams. They have also beaten four ranked teams in Duke, Texas A&M, Maryland and the rematch game with Missouri. Wilson has been amazing this season playing more dominant than ever.  

UConn has been on an incredible roll the last three games. Sure it was against weak AAC teams, but you can tell they are playing with great confidence. Their passes are crisp, their shooting is right on, their decision making is on point and their defense is even better than their offense.

Stat by Stat Comparison

 Leader is bolded

      UCONN                                          South Carolina

                                           90.9         Points Per Game                     82.5 

                                           54.4         Opp Points Per Game             60.4

                                           .538         Field Goal %                           .501

                                           .340         Opp Field Goal %                   .364

                                           .408         3 Point Field Goal %              .337

                                           .285         Opp 3 Point Field Goal %      .343

                                           .745         Free Throw %                         .673

                                            42.2         Rebounds Per Game               40.8

                                            32.0         Opp Rebounds Per Game       32.2

                                            22.4         Assists Per Game                   16.6

                                            13.0         Turnovers Per Game              12.6
                                              1.7         Assists/Turnover Ratio            1.3

                                            10.9         Steals Per Game                      8.8

                                              5.1         Blocks Per Game                    6.4

UConn clearly has the advantage in most of the statistics. UConn is slightly below South Carolina in turnovers per game and blocks per game.   

UCONN  

                                   

UConn Starters

24 Napheesa Collier

6'1" Junior Forward

MPG 28.7, FG% .554, 3PT% .314, FT% .714, PPG 14.9, RPG 7.9, APG 3.0   

15 Gabby Williams

5'11" Senior Forward

MPG 26.2, FG% .566, 3PT% .000, FT% .692, PPG 10.4, RPG 7.4, APG 4.9    

11 Kia Nurse

6' Senior Guard

MPG 32.3, FG% .571, 3PT% .505, FT% .792, PPG 15.1, RPG 3.5, APG 2.9    

5 Crystal Dangerfield

5'5" Sophomore Guard

MPG 29.8, FG% .486, 3PT% .476, FT% .773, PPG 11.2, RPG 2.1, APG 4.4 

33 Katie Lou Samuelson

6'3" Junior Guard/Forward

MPG 27.2, FG% .527, 3PT% .463, FT% .780, PPG 17.0, RPG 4.2, APG 3.1

UConn Bench

23 Azura Stevens

6'6" Junior Forward

MPG 21.9, FG% .608, 3PT% .162, FT% .792, PPG 14.8, RPG 7.9, APG 2.3 

3 Megan Walker

6'1"  Freshman  Guard

MPG 17.1, FG% .473, 3PT% .429, FT% .794, PPG 7.3, RPG 3.5, APG 1.2

25 Kyra Irwin

6'2" Sophomore Forward

MPG 9.1, FG% .525, 3PT% .286, FT% .200, PPG 2.8, RPG 1.1, APG .5 

10 Molly Bent

5'9" Sophomore Guard

MPG 7.8, FG% .500, 3PT% .400, FT% 1.000, PPG 1.1, RPG 1.1, APG .7 

4 Mikayla Coombs

5'8" Freshman Guard

MPG 7.3, FG% .316, 3PT% .143, FT% .625, PPG 1.1, RPG .8, APG .6 

32 Batouly Camara

6'2" Sophomore Forward

MPG 3.4, FG% .375, 3PT% .000, FT% .750, PPG 1.0, RPG 1.2, APG .3 

34 Alexi Gordon

6' Freshman Guard

MPG 3.2, FG% .250, 3PT% .125, FT% .000, PPG .5, RPG .5, APG .1 

UCONN TEAM STATS

*******************************************************************

South Carolina

 

Head Coach 

Dawn Staley

When three-time Olympic gold medalist Dawn Staley took the reins of the University of South Carolina women's basketball program on May 10, 2008, the Gamecocks' stature immediately rose not just in the Southeastern Conference but on the national stage as well. Nine seasons later, Staley delivered on those expectations with the program's first NCAA National Championship in 2017. South Carolina is one of seven programs in the nation to be ranked in every Associated Press Top 25 poll since the start of the 2013-14 season, and the Gamecocks boast six straight 25-win seasons, which include four SEC regular-season championships (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017), three SEC Tournament titles (2015, 2016, 2017), two NCAA Final Four appearances (2015, 2017) and three other Sweet 16 seasons (2012, 2014, 2016), the program's first ever No. 1 national ranking and a school-record 34 wins in 2014-15. Staley's success has united every demographic in the state of South Carolina as the Gamecocks' fan base tripled over a span of three seasons, and three times led the nation in home attendance (2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17). 

South Carolina Starters

  22 A'ja Wilson
6'5" Senior Forward    

MPG 27.9, FG% .571, 3PT% .500, FT%  .688, PPG 23.1, RPG 11.2, APG 1.7

35  Alexis Jennings 

6'3" RS Junior Foward Guard

     

MPG 25.4, FG% .641, 3PT% .167, FT%  .711, PPG 13.0, RPG 7.5, APG 1.0

 

52 Tyasha Harris

5'10" Sophomore Guard     

MPG 32.3, FG% .455, 3PT% .269, FT%  .721, PPG 11.6, RPG 3.2, APG 6.8

4 Doniya Cliney 

6'0" Junior Guard

    

MPG 29.1, FG% .424, 3PT% .244, FT%  .684, PPG 8.1, RPG 3.2, APG 2.6

 

10 Bianca Jackson 

6'0" Freshman Guard

   

MPG 27.5, FG% .392, 3PT% .362, FT%  .778, PPG 6.5, RPG 3.4, APG 2.0

South Carolina Bench

 21 Mikiah Herbert Harrigan
6'2" Sophomore Forward

MPG 15.9, FG% .510, 3PT% .333, FT%  .744, PPG 7.2, RPG 3.2, APG .7

21 LeLe Grissett

6' Freshman Forward

MPG 14.0, FG% .528, 3PT% .000, FT%  .509, PPG 4.9, RPG 3.7, APG .5

23 Ladazhia Williams 

6'2" Freshman Forward

MPG 6.8, FG% .346, 3PT% .667, FT%  .313, PPG 1.5, RPG 1.5, APG .1

0 Victoria Patrick

5'8" Sophomore Guard

MPG 12.5, FG% .250, 3PT% .250, FT%  .667, PPG 2.5, RPG .6, APG .7

Out with Injury

11 Lindsey Spann

5'6" RS Senior Guard

MPG 24.8, FG% .495, 3PT% .480, FT%  .778, PPG 11.2, RPG 1.2, APG 1.3

 South Carolina Stats

 Game Analysis

I always like to use past performances against each other when looking at how games will go. I thought last year's UConn team would run away from South Carolina. It didn't happen.

UConn had real trouble making shots they usually hit. UConn hit only 41% of their shots and 23% of their threes. Maybe their worst shooting performance in years. Katie Lou was the main culprit going 2-12 from the field and 0-5 on threes. I'm sure she remembers that. Kia Nurse had a terrible game as well. She only played 18 minutes, and scored 3 points with 2 assists. Geno gave Dangerfield 30 minutes in this game, and she played like a freshman with 5 points on 2-7 shooting. She did hand out 7 assists. Gabby had a great game with 26 points and 14 rebounds against the bigger front line of the Gamecocks. And Williams added 18 points and 9 rebounds.     

South Carolina had an even worse offensive game shooting only 35% from the field. They were led by A'ja Wilson with 17 points. Alana Coates added 10 points and 14 rebounds and Bianca Cuevas-Moore added 13 points on 3-4 three pointers off the bench.

So, how will this game play out? Well, both teams are different than last year's models.

South Carolina lost three starters in Davis, Gray and Coates. All drafted in the WNBA. They also lost Cuevas-Moore to a season ending injury. These four players accounted for 116 of the 200 minutes in the last matchup. And no matter how you look at it, the players that are replacing them are not nearly as good.

The Gamecocks also won't have Lindsey Spann, a transfer Grad student from Penn State. She has an injured knee and is not expected to be well enough to play in Thursday's game. She has been SC's best three point shooter by far. In spite of playing only 13 of the 21 games, she is still leading in three point shots taken and is hitting them at a 48% clip. She will be really missed in this game if she can't find a way to play.

Two starters are returning this year and they are the most important players on the team.

All-American A'ja Wilson is back and better than ever. She is bigger (6'5"), meaner and stronger. If she gets the ball on the left side in a one-on-one situation it's Katy-bar-the-door time. No one player can stop her. She is averaging an amazing 23.1 PPG and 11.1 RPG. And in only 27 minutes per game. She has taken her game to another level this senior season. South Carolina will look for her early and often.    

The other returning starter is Tyasha Harris, a super sophomore point guard. She is a big point at 5'10" and is averaging a terrific 6.9 assists per game. She had 117 assists all last season and has 140 already this year. Harris has had some big scoring games this season, but really is a distributor. She only shoots 27% on threes so UConn will probably lay off her and try to stop her penetration and dishing.

South Carolina has three new starters this year.

Alexis Jennings is a transfer from Kentucky who had to sit out last season. The 6'2" forward is a big part of the South Carolina offense. Right not she is the second leading scorer on the team at 13 points per game and adds 7 rebounds as well. She is a wide body that can score in the post with either hand. Not a great outside shooter, she likes to work the paint area.  

Doniya Cliney is a 6' wing for the Gamecocks, getting her chance in the starting lineup in her junior season. Her best quality is her defense. She does a nice job in the SC man to man on whoever she guards. But she is a liability on offense. She does have a knack for hitting big threes occasionally, but she is only shooting 24% from long range this year.

Due to the Spann injury, freshman guard 6' Bianca Jackson gets the nod as the fifth starter. She will be a nice player for the Gamecocks, but I have a feeling she is out of her comfort zone against UConn. She is a decent threat from long range at 37% so UConn will have to pay attention to her.    
Off the bench, the best South Carolina player is Herbert Harrigan, the 6'2" sophomore. She has been battling a knee issue and just got back from her latest absence against Missouri this Sunday. For whatever reason, she hasn't been the player expected of her by the SC fans. Two freshman forwards LeLe Grissett and Ladazhia Williams give the Gamecocks some minutes. The only guard off the bench is 5'8" sophomore Victoria Patrick. With Spann injured and Jackson in the starting lineup, the bench will not be much help in this game.  

Offensively, you can bet that they will try to take advantage of their size and get the ball in the hands of Wilson and Jennings. My guess is that Geno will have the 5'11" Gabby Williams cover Wilson. Giving up 6 inches to the talented Wilson will be her biggest challenge of the season. Wilson should be able to get her shot off so it will be more about keeping the ball out of her hands. One way is to keep the pressure on the guards to make that entry pass difficult or sag back from the shooters and front the posts. Of course, sagging back will give the shooters room to make threes but that is not a South Carolina strength with Spann not in the game.

UConn is a different team this season as well, but mostly in a good way. Four starters have returned in Samuelson, Williams, Nurse and Collier. With Dangerfield moving into the starting lineup and playing as well as they have, the first five players are definitely a better team. Add in 6'6" Stevens and an improving freshman Walker and you have a stronger bench as well.

UConn will put a ton of pressure on the guards as soon as they inbound trying to get SC to have as little time on the shot clock to set up their offense. The Huskies will also look to turn over South Carolina as they have every team. I'm not sure how well Jackson and Cliney will handle the pressure if UConn can keep the ball out of Harris's hands.

On offense, UConn will try to bring out both Jennings and Wilson away from the basket and then drive by them with Williams and Collier. It worked against Wilson and Coates last time they played.  There is no way that the SC players can keep them in front of them. Both have a tendency to foul when the player they are guarding drives by them. UConn will have to hit a decent percentage of their threes to keep the South Carolina defense honest as Dawn will want to use their size to their advantage. It should be interesting to see how South Carolina matchups up against UConn in their man-to-man defense. I believe that Cliney will cover Dangerfield. She is the only player quick enough to even try to stay with Crystal. Harris has some size in the backcourt to cover Samuelson leaving the freshman Jackson to try to handle Nurse. None of these matchups favor South Carolina.  

Defensively, UConn will try to force the ball out of Harris's hands so she isn't the one running the offense. And they will try to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands in the paint. When she does get it, UConn will double her quickly. A'ja only has around 2 assists per game, so once she gets it, she will try to score. That can play into UConn's defensive scheme. When UConn does double, it will be using players that would be guarding Harris and Cliney as both are not great outside shooters. It would be a different story if Spann was playing. It will be interesting to see how Stevens does in guarding either one of the South Carolina bigs. She could be a difference maker.

Final Prediction

Two years ago, UConn won 66-54. Last year is was 66-55. Will this year be 66-55?

Massey has it as 81-67 in favor or UConn. So, how do I see it?

Well, looking at the season stats, some things stand out. One of UConn's strength is three point shooting at almost 41%. South Carolina is weak in defending the three at 34%. UConn is averaging more rebounds than the bigger South Carolina. Both teams take care of the ball averaging only around 13 turnovers per game. South Carolina is known as a defensive team but UConn averages less points per game given up at 54 PPG vs 60 PPG.

After watching South Carolina play against Missouri on Sunday I feel a lot better about UConn's chances. Sure a hot shooting for SC vs cold shooting for UConn could happen. But the Gamecocks just don't have the offensive firepower to outscore the Huskies.

UConn should run them into the ground. I can't see the slower Gamecocks (Wilson/Jennings) keeping up with UConn and slowing the game down will only limit South Carolina's scoring chances. UConn will run no matter what.

So, what does this mean? I feel confident that UConn will win this game but my fear of the Mojo gods keeps my margin grounded.

The last two years weird stuff happened so it could be closer than I predict.

I'll say UConn by 15+ points. Something like 80-65.