UConn @ Ohio State Opening Game Preview






UCONN @ Ohio State

Day: Monday

Date: November 16th, 2015

Location: Columbus Ohio

Time: 5:30

TV: ESPN2

 

 

No. 1 UConn Huskies                           No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes

Prior Meetings

 

UConn - 2-0

12/19/10 W 81-50 Maggie Dixon Classic
12/1/13 W 70-49 Women's Basketball Hall of Fame Challenge 

 

 Overview
 

UConn

 

UConn is coming off of it's third consecutive WCBB national championship. Ahh...that is so nice to type. This game is the start of what UConn and their fans hope will be a magical trip to the final four, the championship game and ultimately to a place that no other University has done in WCBB. A fourth consecutive championship.    

 

UConn  returns four starters from last year, including the NPOY, All-American Breanna Stewart and  the Lieberman Award winning all-American, Moriah Jefferson. By most experts rankings, those are the  No. 1 and No. 2 players in the country. If that isn't enough, they return red shirt junior, Morgan Tuck, who was on some 10 player AA teams and Kia Nurse, MVP of the Canadian National team in their win over Team USA. What a fabulous foursome.

 

The fifth starter looks to be Gabby Williams. A great athlete, great defender and improving offensive player. Coming off the bench for this game are two of the three great freshman, Katie Lou Samuelson and Napheesha Collier. Filling out the rest of the rotation is Courtney Ekmark. The former walk-on's and now scholarship players, Tierney Lawlor and Briana Pulido will possible get a few minutes at the end of this game. 

       

 

Ohio State

This looks like a great year for Ohio State. The Buckeyes return all five starters and eight of its nine letterwinners from a 24-11 team from last season. They were 13-5 in the Big Ten and runner up to Maryland in their conference tournament. They lost a tough game to North Carolina in the second round of the NCAA tournament 86-84.

The Buckeyes featured the top-scoring backcourt in the country in 2014-15 of Kelsey Mitchell and Ameryst Alston.  In the post, freshman Alexa Hart developed into one of the best low-post threats in the conference as the 2014-15 progressed. They also started Cait Craft and and Asia Doss, two guards that completed the 4 guard lineup. Shayla Cooper was the first forward off the bench once she became eligible after her transfer from Georgetown. They pretty much played with these 6 players last year.

Several players were injured that will be coming back and this will give Ohio State a lot of options in keeping the players fresh.

                         

 

 

UConn Starters

 

11 Kia Nurse

6' Sophomore Guard

 

Coming off a terrific freshman season, an outstanding Canadian national team summer and a solid exhibition season, Nurse is primed for a big freshman-sophomore jump. She looks bigger and stronger, but what I like is how much more under control she looks. Her decision making international games was outstanding. She took advantage of her size and took the ball strong to the basket. I love her use of the backboard with her pull up jumper, even straight on she uses the glass. Old school! Where she really earns her schollie is with her defense. She is so strong she can body any guard off the ball without fouling. 

  

Exhibition Stats

49 minutes, 29 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers, 2 steals, 1 block 

2014-15 Stats

  MPG 25.0, FG% .486, 3PT% 408, PPG 10.2, RPG 3.1, APG 2.8, 55 steals, 2 block

4 Moriah Jefferson
5'7" Senior Guard

 

Well, what can you say about the best guard in the country? She was terrific last season, winning the Lieberman award, becoming a first team AA and just dominating games on both sides of the ball. No guard in the country brings so much to defense and offense. The scary thing for UConn's opponents is that she truly expects to be even better this year. So how? Shot over 50% on threes? Increase her assists to 6 per game? Who knows? I know it will be fun to watch.   

Exhibition Stats

55 minutes, 35 points, 3 rebounds, 10 assists, 2 turnovers, 10 steals, 0 blocks
 

 2014-15 Stats
 

   MPG 28.7, FG% .586, 3PT% .496, PPG 12.4, RPG 2.9, APG 4.9, 100 steals, 5 blocks

3 Morgan Tuck
6'2" RS Junior Forward

Tuck had some knee soreness in the first exhibition game, limiting her to only 12 minutes and a seat on the bench in the second half. I'm sure many were worried about that. But she played 27 pain free minutes and while she didn't have dominating stats, she had her usual solid game. The battle with Ohio State's Cooper should be fun. Two physical players that can step out to hit the three. The bad news for Cooper is Tuck does everything better. Morgan should improve her outside shot compared to last season. She started off so slowly and I don't see that happening again. Her improvement over 30% will go a long way in UConn's pursuit of four NC's in a row.      

Exhibition Stats

39 minutes, 14 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 turnover, 3 steals, 1 block

2014-15 Stats
 

   MPG 25.5, FG% .596, 3PT% .292, PPG 14.4, RPG 5.5, APG 2.9, 31 steals, 13 blocks

 

30 Breanna Stewart 
6'4" Senior Forward

 

Stewart has taken her game to another level again this season.  Bigger and stronger, she is also continuing to grow in her approach to the game. Until Butler is back, Stewart is the only dominant shot blocker on the team and with 9 blocks in the two exhibition games, she looks better than ever in that department. I was excited to see how nice her three point shot looked in exhibition game one. And equally disappointed in her three point shot in the second exhibition game. Maybe it was the bigger ball and the longer line. If she can get her percentage up from 31% to 35+ she will have taken the next step in her progression. OSU has no one to guard her (who does?) so expect a big game.         

  

Exhibition Stats

59 minutes, 40 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 turnover, 5 steals, 9 blocks

2014-15 Stats
 

  MPG 28.3, FG% .539, 3PT% .313, PPG 17.6, RPG 7.8, APG 3.1, 61 steals, 104 blocks
 

 

15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Sophomore Forward

 

Williams second season looks to be something that will catapult her into AA discussion for next year. Geno says she is the BEST athlete he has ever coached. That is an amazing statement from someone that has coached Maya Moore. Gabby looks bigger, stronger and quicker. At the small forward, she can dominate the small players with her strength and leaping ability and the bigger players with her quickness. It appears that she has added a mid-range jumper to her arsenal. If she can hit that regularly she becomes impossible to defend. Williams has also worked hard on her foul shooting and it showed in the two exhibition games. Gabby went to the line the third most on the team behind Stewart and Nurse. But her 46% shooting negated that stat. I expect she will get to the line more often in more minutes at a higher percentage. She will see a lot of court time against OSU. They don't match up well with her.             

Exhibition Stats

46 minutes, 27 points, 17 rebounds, 3 assists, 6 turnover, 9 steals, 1 block

2014-15 Stats
 

  MPG 15.6, FG% .637, 3PT% .000, PPG 8.3, RPG 5.7, APG 1.3, 46 steals, 14 blocks

UConn Bench

 

 

 

22 Courtney Ekmark 6'

Sophomore Guard

 

You can see how hard she worked in the off season after seeing her on the court. She looks leaner, played quicker and as time went on, gained more confidence. Her corner three in the second exhibition game was a thing of beauty. Shooters don't forget how to shoot. It's all about confidence. With the deep roster it might be tough for her to get extended minutes, but she will bring a better game to the table this year.

Exhibition Stats

13 minutes, 9 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 steal, 0 blocks

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 9.7, FG% .328, 3PT% .270, PPG 5.6, RPG 1.4, APG .7, 6 steals, 0 blocks

33 Katie Lou Samuelson

6'3" Freshman Guard/Forward

 

Katie Lou comes in to UConn with all the expectations of the No. 1 ranked recruit in her class. After both injury and personal issues kept her from playing for Team USA this summer, it felt like many forgot how good a player this young woman is. But even after a poor exhibition shooting performance, you have to love what you see from this talented young woman. She WILL start hitting her three point shots. It's what she does best. But I love many other facets of her game. She is a good passer, a surprisingly strong rebounder and her long arms make her a sneaky defender in the passing lanes. OSU should be an interesting test for her.       

Exhibition Stats

58 minutes, 17 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 turnover, 3 steal, 1 block

24 Napheesha Collier 6'1

Freshman Forward/Guard

 

Boy, do I love her game. She is long armed and long legged allowing her to play bigger than her listed 6'1" height. After her initial nervousness in her first appearance for The Huskies, Collier settled down in her second game for UConn. I would expect her to get regular minutes this year and that means 20+ minutes. Her best skill to me is her defensive ability. She is excellent in defending players one on one and has a knack for deflecting passes with her long arms and great instincts. She showed all of that in her second appearance. Looking forward to seeing her against better competition. She has shown she can be the best player in her age group with her team USA play. It won't be long before she does the same on the college level.    

Exhibition Stats

47 minutes, 20 points, 18 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 turnover, 5 steal, 2 blocks

20 Tierney Lawlor 5'7"

Junior Guard

Exhibition Stats


8 minutes, 2 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 steal, 0 blocks

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 3.9, FG% .167, 3PT% .176, PPG .4, RPG .4, APG .2, 5 steals, 0 blocks

22 Briana Pulido 5'7"

Senior Guard

Exhibition Stats

7 minutes, 0 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 0 turnovers, 0 steals, 0 blocks

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 2.5, FG% .231, 3PT% .250, PPG .2, RPG .3, APG .1, 2 steals, 2 blocks

 

Out for the game

12 Saniya Chong 5'8" 
Junior Guard

Saniya had a nice jump from her freshman year to her sophomore season but it is yet to be determined how she will improve in her junior year. Coming off an injury plagued pre-season, Chong might see some time in the Ohio State team. A steady and improved Chong would be a great backup for Jefferson allowing Mo to get enough rest to play all out every game.  But for now, we will have to wait until the next game. Geno said Saturday that Chong would miss OSU but should be ready to practice next week. 

2014-15 Stats
 

 MPG 19.0, FG% .470, 3PT% .366, PPG 5.6, RPG 1.9, APG 1.9, 26 steals, 8 blocks

51 Natalie Butler
6'5" RS Sophomore Center

I was hoping that Butler would be ready to play earlier after her thumb surgery. But now, according to Geno, it looks like she won't be ready until after Christmas. She will continue to do the cardio to stay in some kind of shape but until she gets the soft cast off, she won't know how soon she will be back.

35 De'Janae Boykin
6'2" Freshman Forward

Boykin is finally running full steam but she still hasn't practiced. Geno was pretty non-committal about when she will be her returning to full practice. More to come later, but it was good to see her running.

 







*******************************************************************

 

Head Coach 

Kevin McGuff

 

McGuff has been successful wherever he has coached. For 6 years he was an assistant under Muffet McGraw at Notre Dame and was part of a National Championship team in 2001. Yes, UConn fans, that team. He parlayed that success to a head coaching gig at Xavier University. If you remember those very successful Atlantic 10 team, you know that he was a great recruiter for a team not in a power conference. He had a great twin tower combo in Amber Harris and Ta'shia Phillips. That year they went 30-3 and lost in the Elite Eight. He moved to Washington state for two non-descript years before landing the power 5 conference job he was looking for. He was able to land a two for one by hiring Mark Mitchell, superstar Kelsey Mitchell's father. By adding her and a few other pieces to the puzzle, he was able to improve after his first season to an NCAA tournament and 20 win season team in his second year. He will continue to improve this program, fighting for league championships before too long.      

 

Ohio State Starters

14 Ameryst Alston
5'9" Senior Guard

Alston should be the poster child for how rankings don't mean everything. She was not ranked by ESPN and they considered her the 45th ranked guard. Alston has turned into one of the best guards in the country. She had a terrific assist/to ration and average close to 20 ppg. She had to play almost 40 MPG last year with the short roster. She gets to the line a lot (almost 200 trips to the line) and makes a spectacular 83.2%. She had a great season in 2014-15 finishing with 694 points, the sixth-most in a single-season in school history.

 

She was first team freshman All-Big Ten her first year and in her junior and sophomore seasons she was First Team All-Big Ten. Expect a three-peat for that honor as she was preseason 1st team All-Big Ten for this season. Alston was third in the B1G in scoring last year. A very consistent performer she had double-figures scoring in all but three games. She was one of five players added to the Mid-Season Wade Watch List.  

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 37.7, FG% .450, 3PT% .356, PPG 19.8, RPG 4.2, APG 4.0, 45 steals, 5 blocks

 

32 Shayla Cooper
6'2" Junior Forward

 

Cooper is from Norcross, Georgia. I recall another player from there. She was Blue Star's No. 50 prospect her senior year. She played two games for Georgetown before deciding to transfer to Ohio State. As UConn fans know, that is the year before Butler transferred. Because of Cooper's early transfer, she was able to play second semester for the Buckeyes last season and very effectively.

 

Great story from her first game for Georgetown her freshman year. In the Georgetown-Richmond  game Cooper lost her shoe early in the second half and tried to block a Spiders’ 3-pointer by throwing her sneaker at the ball. She missed. A technical foul should have been called  but the officials missed the call.     

 

Cooper looks to be in the starting lineup replacing Durr. They will need the size this season to be a more balance team. She will help do that.

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 26.0, FG% .477, 3PT% .381, PPG 10.7, RPG 7.8, APG 1.4, 18 steals, 6 blocks

 

3 Kelsey Mitchell
5'8" Sophomore Guard 

 

The numbers speak for themselves. Mitchell was the first freshman to led the NCAA in scoring at 24.9 ppg and set an OSU and Big Ten single-season record with 873 points. Mitchell also made an NCAA single-season record 127 three-pointers. One thing she can do is score.

 

Personal awards last year were many and among them she was named the National Freshman of the Year as well as the Co-Big Ten Player of the Year.  

 

Mitchell was a very highly ranked recruit after her great HS senior season. She was voted 2014 McDonald's, Parade and WBCA All-American. She was also the AP Ohio Ms. Basketball and Division I Player of the Year. Along with that she was selected the 2014 Ohio Gatorade Player of the Year. In the rankings, she was No. 1 in Prospects Nation, No. 5 by ESPN.

 

Ok...those are the numbers and awards. But until you see her play, you can't appreciate how good she is.   

  

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 37.1, FG% .415, 3PT% .378, PPG 24.8, RPG 4.2, APG 4.2, 59 steals, 6 blocks

  

 

22 Alexa Hart

 6'2" Sophomore Forward

 

What great freshman season for Hart. Another Ohio State player that didn't have great rankings out of high school but came in and made a huge impact for the Buckeyes and in the Big Ten Conference. She was only ranked No. 82 overall and 15th at her position by ESPN and No. 21 prospect, No. 3 at position by Prospects Nation.  

 

Hart was named to the Big Ten All-Freshman Team as well as the B1G All-Tournament Team. A great double! Speaking of doubles, she led the team with 13 double-doubles and blocked an OSU single-season record 129 shots breaking the record held by Jessica Davenport. Amazing for a 6'2" player.

 

She had a strong finish in really big games at the end of the season. A double-double in the B1G Championship game vs. Maryland (13 points and 10 rebounds)  while being named to the B1G All-Tournament Team, almost  had a triple-double in the NCAA Tournament win over James Madison, notching 20 points, 13 rebounds and seven blocked shots and finally, she had her 13th double-double of the year with 15 points and 10 rebounds in the season-finale against North Carolina. 

 

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 30.3, FG% .627, 3PT% .000, PPG 12.2, RPG 8.9, APG .7, 31 steals, 129 blocks 

 

 

13 Cait Craft

5'8" Senior Guard 

 

 Craft came in as an unranked player, 232nd at her position according to ESPN. And she has worked herself into a 2 year starter her sophomore and junior season. Looks like she will start again this year. She is just a solid performer that brings steadiness to the team. Her problem is she is just not that good a shooter. 32% from the field and 31% on threes. With additional players this season, her minutes could go down, but based on the South Carolina game, maybe not.

    

 

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 34.0, FG% .321, 3PT% .314, PPG 7.6, RPG 4.0, APG 2.2, 55 steals, 6 blocks 

 

 

Ohio State Bench

24 Makayla Waterman

 6'2" RS Freshman Forward

 

Waterman tore her ACL last year in the first practice on October 6th. She was ranked 99th overall and 19th at her position by ESPN and No. 35 prospect, No. 10 at her position according to Prospects Nation.

 

She is a fairly skilled interior performer with solid footwork in traffic. She is a real hard worker on the court.   

 

21 Lisa Blair

 6'6" RS Junior Center

 

Coming into OSU, she was a three-star prospect and rated the 38th best center in the nation by ESPN Hoopgurlz. She played in all 35 games last year. Defense is clearly her strong point and she had the second most blocks on the team last season.

 

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 9.5, FG% .534, 3PT% .000, PPG 2.1, RPG 3.1, 1 assist0, 14 steals, 50 blocks 

 

 

20 Asia Doss

 5'7" Sophomore Guard

 

Doss started every game last year but it looks like she has been moved to the bench to allow OSU to match up better defensively in the post. She had a nice TO/Assist ratio of 2-1. Her problem is that she really struggled with her shooting as you can see from her stats from last season.

 

  

2014-15 Stats

 MPG 29.5, FG% .306, 3PT% .232, PPG 5.4, RPG 3.7, APG 2.9, 40 steals, 10 blocks
 

12 Kianna Howard

 5'9" RS Freshman Guard

Howard sat out last year with a knee injury and according to her coach she gives them a "really, really" great three-point shooter. Two "really"s might mean she is a very good shooter. He also said she will help spread the floor and gives them a little more balance with having a lot of guards that attack the basket so well. She was ranked 32 in the ESPN site and the #8 point guard.   Holland is a transfer from Duke. She never did suit up for Duke in 2013 due to compartment syndrome in her leg. She then decided to take her talents to OSU where she sat out last year after tearing her ACL last Halloween.

 

 

 

34 Theresa Ekhelar

 6'6" Freshman Center

 

Ekhelar was ranked No. 104 by Prospects Nation and is a three-star player, according to ESPN's HoopGurlz and a four-star recruit by Prospect Nation.

 

From Olsen at ESPN - Emerging low-post prospect with next level frame; defends key, rebounds and initiates fast break; mobile in uptempo; inconsistent interior producer with suspect effort, yet the positives outweigh the negatives; among the potential next level sleepers in the class of 2015.  

 

 

 Game Analysis

 

 

At 7:00 Friday night, I was concerned some about UConn going against the Ohio State Buckeyes. OSU improved last year as the season went on using a very limited roster. They almost beat UNC in the second round and looked to be a tougher team this year.

 

They return for a full season of Georgetown transfer Shayla Cooper, who was a nice addition second semester last year. They add two players who were injured before the season started last season in freshmen Makayla Waterman and Kianna Howard, who would allow for a deeper rotation giving the talented backcourt of Mitchell and Alston more rest and allowing them to be more effective. Last years freshman breakout player Alexa Hart would be even better in her second year on the roster.

The only change from last season in the lineup for OSU is that that Cooper has moved into the starting lineup and Doss has moved to the bench.

 

Well, my concerns have kinda drifted away after watching OSU lose to South Carolina in their opening game. I'm sure Geno took the time to watch the game or at least his coaches did putting together their scouting report.

 

OSU still played only 7 players with more than 10 minutes and their starting guards played 38 minutes each. Against SC Kelsey Mitchel scored 34 points on 10-24 shooting, 4-9 from behind the arc and 12-13 from the line.  She is incredibly difficult to keep in front on you, and she can shoot a step-back three from almost anywhere on the court. But she has never played against a guard with the defensive chops like Jefferson. And against a team that plays great team defense like UConn. For someone that has the ball in her hands so much during a game she is not a great passer. She only had  one assist against SC.

 

Ameryst Alston, the other starting guard also is a volume shooter like Mitchell. She put up 19 shots, made 8 and was 4-5 from behind the arc. She ended up with 23 points. But she only had one assist as well. She is a big bodied guard and very physical. The matchup with Nurse should be a great battle.   

 

Shayla Cooper killed OSU against SC by going 2-17 from the field, 0-4 on 3's and 8 turnovers. She is a big body but not tall at 6'2. I expect her to match up with Tuck and if she fouled out playing against SC's front line, she will struggle against Tuck and her superb post offense. 

 

The other forward is 6'2 Alexia Hart. She and Cooper will switch off between Stewart and Tuck and neither is a good matchup for OSU. Hart really struggled against the SC big front line and I don't see Hart having much more success against Stewart or Tuck.

 

The last matchup of the starting players is the third guard Cait Craft who will match up with Williams. UConn has a huge advantage here. Craft is a nice player that helps settle down the frenetic pace of play when OSU is out of control. But she is no offensive threat and she has no chance in defending Williams. I can see Geno isolating Williams in the box for post moves.     

 

UConn has a big advantage on the bench, even with Chong, Butler and Boykin out with injuries. Ohio State will play forward Waterman some minutes, but I just don't see them playing their big girl, Lisa Blair much. She is 6'6" but too slow up and down the court to keep up with UConn's bigs. She might see a few minutes here and there, but it's just not a good matchup for her. Doss only saw 5 minutes. Wll she see more against UConn? Only of the other guard are in foul trouble. UConn counters with three players that are better than anyone on OSU other than the two star guards. Yes, two of UConn's players off the bench are freshman, and it's their first real game. Yes, it's on the road in a hostile environment. But you watch. I expect Collier and Samuelson to get plenty of minutes. Ekmark is the other player off the bench for UConn. I'm not sure how much time she will see. OSU's backcourt speed might be too much for Ekmark.

 

So, there are the matchups. How will the two teams approach the game?

 

OSU wants to run. I think they will run even against UConn. They played a full court press early in the game against SC and I would expect to see that again. It's really their only chance. They will try to get UConn to play fast. In the half court, they play a lot of trapping man-to-man defense. It was pretty effective in their game against SC. They need to force UConn into bad shots and hope they can grab the rebounds to trigger their running game. That is where Mitchell and Alston are so deadly. Give Mitchell a head of steam and she is almost unstoppable. In the half court, the Buckeyes go into 1-1 mode. They had THREEE assists the entire game against SC. That is just an unbelievable but true statistic. Mitchell and Altson are great players in creating their own offense. But they have to shoot a lot to score and they will put up shots quickly and often.

 

UConn is one team that will run against Ohio State and be comfortable with it. I don't think UConn is vulnerable to the press as other teams. Jefferson can break most presses on her own, and they have several ball handlers that can relieve the pressure. UConn is too good a passing team to struggle with a trapping defense in the half court. Jefferson can get by the first line of defense and it's over. She will either get to the basket or find an open player. I think OSU will quickly stop using that tactic once UConn beats that defense a few times. I did not see any zone from Ohio State, but it's possible I missed it. UConn just has the advantage in every position to be successfully guarded by a man-to-man defense. Stewart will have a field day.   

 

UConn's defense will be something that Ohio State has never seen before. Mitchell's ability to dribble makes her tough to press, so I don't see UConn doing that too often. They might use it to force OSU to use some time up, but it won't matter. The Buckeyes don't need much time to get a shot off. But UConn will make sure it's a really tough shot. We all know how good UConn's defense is. It will be a big challenge against a player like Mitchell and I can't wait to see how it plays out.         

 

Final Prediction

I see a lot of pain for OSU on Monday unless they can play better defense. They fouled South Carolina an amazing 29 times. It will get ugly pretty quickly if they play defense like this against UConn. But with two great players like Mitchell and Altson, OSU can stay in the game against the Huskies for a while. They just don't pass much and will try to make plays taking advantage of the no hand check rule. They will score points, but OSU still has to stop UConn and they will have problems stopping UConn from scoring points.

A theme in my player by player evaluation for UConn was how much stronger a team they appear to be. Other than Cooper, OSU looks to be on the smallish side. They struggled with South Carolina's size and they will struggle against UConn's physicality.

 

I figure that the two best backcourts in the country going head to head will neutralize each other and the game will be won by UConn's advantage in the frontcourt. The talent level is not even close. Stewart, Tuck, Williams, Collier, Samuelson vs Cooper, Hart, Waterman and Blair. Say goodnight Gracie.....  

   

I'm seeing a 15-20 point win for UConn. It could be worse if Mitchell see's any bench time.