This season is very different from the usual UConn/DePaul matchups. It is just not the same DePaul team or the same UConn team lately.
Scoring only 77.3 PPG and shooting only 42.1% from the field and 31.0% on threes, this team outside of their wonderful center Aneesah Morrow and sophomore guard Darione Rogers struggles to score.
The lack of defense by the Blue Demons holds true again this season. I'm sure Coach Bruno realizes his teams only chance to make a game of it is to make a lot of threes. DePaul takes a lot of threes, averaging 25 takes per game. And as I said this season they are hitting at a weak 31.0%.
Usually DePaul is one of the best passing teams in the country. They always average 20+ assists per game. But this season is different only averaging 16.7 APG. Coach Bruno is an excellent offensive coach and his players usually do a great job valuing the ball. This season they have turned the ball over 14.0 times per game. Certainly better than UConn. The Assist/Turnover ratio is weaker than usual.
This team really misses both Sonya Morris and Lexi Held to take a lot of three point shots. They both averaged around 5 taken per game. That being said, every player on the court for DePaul will fire away.
The question for DePaul is twofold. Can they hit their three point shots at a high percentage against UConn? Can they find a way to play enough defense to keep UConn under 80? It's the same question I asked the last four years and DePaul failed in both aspects.
Sophomore phenom 6'1" Aneesha Morrow is the star of the team and a candidate for Player of the Year in the Big East AND the entire country. She brings needed rebounding and paint scoring for the Blue Demons. Her stats are amazing. She is averaging 25.7 PPG and 12.3 RPG. She has had double digit rebounding against all comers. No reason to think that won't happen against UConn. Last season she had 30 points and 14 rebounds in their heartbreaking loss to the Huskies 80-78. And 20 points and 16 rebounds in their second matchup an easy 84-60 win for UConn. I was surprised to see how low her shooting percentages are. 42% from the field, 22% on threes and 61% from the FT line. However, she averages 24 shots per game. I'd have to say she really is a volume shooter. She will get hers. UConn did a great job in the first game holding her to 20 points and 12 rebounds.
Darione Rogers, a 5'11" junior guard, is the second leading scorer at 18.5 PPG and by far, takes the second most shot each game at 15 per game. Early on she was one of their better three point shooters, but now she hits them at 31.8%. She also does most of the ball handling handing out 5 assists per game but turns the ball over 4 times per game. She had only 7 points in the first matchup on 3-14 shooting.
Kendall Holmes, a 5'11" junior guard is averaging 9.4 PPG. By far the best three point shooter on the team, she hits them at a very good 37.5% and takes around 5 each game. She had 3 points in the first matchup.
DePaul is able to create turnovers against most teams, and UConn can't afford to be sloppy with the ball. UConn has srtuggled with turnovers, so it could be an issue. DePaul will press to try to disrupt the UConn offense.
It almost goes with saying but UConn's defense will have to work hard in preventing open threes even if they aren't shooting as well as years past.. DePaul seems to find that open player with the extra pass. UConn is the best at closing in on the open shooter with their amazing switching defense and their advantage with their length. However, it's certain that DePaul will get some open looks. If they hit them at a high rate, DePaul can certainly make it tough on the Huskies but I don't see how they can slow down the UConn offense.
UConn did exactly what they needed to do in the first matchup. They prevented easy open shots and made Morrow work hard for her shots. Holding the Blue Demons to 51 points was unexpected for sure.
UConn usually likes a fast pace, so it will be interesting to see if they still want to do that again against a team that scores so quickly like DePaul and with UConn only going 6 deep. However, DePaul is short handed as well with maybe only 6-7 players in the rotation.
The Huskies have a size advantage and they will run off DePaul misses and I expect there to be enough of those to allow UConn so score plenty of points. And with the size advantage of both Edwards and Juhasz, the Huskies will look to score inside.
Final Prediction
After a loss in their first meeting ever in 1983, UConn has won the last 22 games in a rivalry that started in 2006. In their first 4 meeting since 2006 UConn won by an average of 8 PPG with one really close game won in the last second by the Huskies. Since then UConn has won the last 16 games by an average of 30 PPG. They did have a close game in the first matchup last year.
DePaul has had their share of injuries this season. Before the first match up it was starter Jorie Allen and that limited her minutes.
If there is a game that UConn can get the offense going again, this is it. It's also doubtful that UConn can hold DePaul to 51 points again. I expect a much closer game.
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