No. 5 UConn Huskies No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks
21-2 (11-0) 22-0 (9-0)
Sunday February 5th , 2023
12:00 PM
XL Center
Hartford, Connecticut
FOX
SOUTH CAROLINA | UCONN LEADS 9-3
H: 5-0 | A: 3-1 | N: 1-2
12/17/07 #2 UConn 97, USC 39 Storrs, Conn.
12/28/08 #1 UConn 77, USC 48 Columbia, S.C.
02/09/15 #2 UConn 87, #1 USC 62 Storrs, Conn.
02/08/16 #1 UConn 66, #2 USC 54 Columbia, S.C.
02/13/17 #1 UConn 66, #6 USC 55 Storrs, Conn.
02/01/18 #1 UConn 83, #7 USC 58 Columbia, S.C.
03/26/18 #1 UConn 94, #7 USC 65 Albany, N.Y.
02/11/19 #4 UConn 97, #11 USC 79 Hartford, Conn.
02/10/20 #1 USC 70, #5 UConn 52 Columbia, S.C.
02/08/21 #2 UConn 63, #1 USC 59 (OT) Storrs, Conn.
11/22/21 #2 UConn 57, #1 USC 73 Paridise Island, Bahamas
04/03/22 #1 USC 64, #5 UConn 49 Minneapolis, Minn.
PREGAME PRESSERS
Nika
Aaliyah
Geno
******************************************************
South Carolina
Season to Date
From the beginning of the season to the end, South Carolina came into every game ranked No. 1, favored to win. Not once were they the underdog. They beat then No. 2 Stanford 76-71 in overtime early in the season, hammered then No. 17 Maryland 81-56 and then No. 15 UCLA 73-64. Those were the only Top 25 games on their schedule. Their last 10 games were against SEC teams and with the conference down this year, it hasn't been the challenge it usually is. Only Arkansas was ranked at any time this year and the Gamecocks destroyed the Razorbacks 92-46. However, 22-0 is nothing to sneeze at. They are having a dominant season.
Comparative Team Statistics
UConn South Carolina
80.2 PPG 82.0
58.6 Defensive PPG 46.0
21.6 Scoring Margin 36.0
52.0 Field Goal % 47.1
34.9 Defensive FG% 29.0
40.3 Three Point % 32.0
28.1 Defensive 3PT% 22.8
75.6 Free Throw % 69.1
41.3 Rebounds/game 50.9
12.0 Rebounding Margin 22.1
20.4 Assists per game 16.6
16.8 Turnover per game 13.0
1.2 Assists/TO ratio 1.3
7.0 Steals per game 8.0
UCONN
are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
UConn Injuries
Concussion Protocal
Out for undetermined time
Knee Injury
OUT FOR THE SEASON
*******************************************************************
SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina Starters
Game Analysis
Well, here we go again. The big, mean, South Carolina Gamecocks' game is here and fans on both sides are settled in their thoughts about the outcome.
South Carolina fans are confident that they can come to a sold out XL center and use their size and "depth" to overwhelm the Huskies for a double digit win.
UConn fans are cowering in the corner, worried about UConn's lack of a bench, fatigues players and their best players in a slump.
All that is well and good, but it's time to look at facts when you do an analysis. Here are a few.
South Carolina has started the same five players all season with Boston, Cooke, Beal, Saxton, and Fletcher other than two games that Fletcher missed in mid-season. Talk about consistency. I like to look at the competitive games to see the trend during the season who will see minutes on Sunday.
Three of the starters will see 30+ minutes.
Aliyah Boston, a 6'5" senior forward, is once again a contender for POY. However, her stats are down this season although in 4 less minutes per game. She is second in scoring at 12.9 PPG and leads the team in rebounding with 9.8 RPG. And as usual, she is a dominant force on defense with 43 blocks, 2 per game. Last season she added a three point shot to her game. This year? Not so much, going 1-11.
Zia Cooke, a 5'9" senior guard, has picked up some of the scoring slack with the departure of Destiny Henderson. She leads the team in scoring at 15.4 PPG and takes the most three pointers on the team. She hits them at a solid 38% but in their 6 competative games, she was only 10-35 for 28.5%. That being said, she is streaky and can get hot from the outside.
Brea Beal, a 6' senior guard, is the defensive star in the backcourt. Not a great scorer at 5.1 PPG, she is second on the team in assists and has a great 50/18 Assists/TO ratio. She is shooting 38% from the field and has parlayed a few hot games to shoot 40% on threes, but she only takes on average 2 per game. South Carolina puts her on the best scoring guard and she does a great job taking that player out of her comfort zone. She has 27 blocks and 18 steals.
The other two starters will only see 15-18 minutes.
Kierra Fletcher, a 5'9" grad student, is the starting point guard on the team. A transfer from Georgia Tech, she is only playing around 16 MPG. I would say that she has not embraced the role and played well enough to get more minutes. She is averaging 4.2 PPG and 1.8 APG. She has a decent assist/TO ratio with 38/21. Her weakness is her shooting. She only shoots 38.7% from the floor and is 1-13 on threes.
Victaria Saxton, a 6'2" fifth year senior forward starts at the power forward position. She doesn't see the same court time as she did last year and it shows in her stats. Averaging only 4.5 PPG and 3.5 RPG, it sometimes feels like she is starting only because she have been there forever. She can still hit the boards hard and play good defense, but Staley is quick to make a change to her bench.
Every analysis of South Carolina talks about their depth. And compared to many schools, they do have a big roster of available players. However, in this game, I believe you will only see 2-3 players off the bench, whichever ones Staley thinks matches up with the Huskies. While 13 players are averaging double digit minutes on the season, in the most competitive games, they really only go 8 deep. The exception was a 9th player in the Alabama game.
Stanford - Amihere with 28 minutes, Hall with 22 and Johnson with 18.
UCLA - Amihere with 17, Hall with 12 and Cardoso with 26
SD ST - Amihere with 17, Hall with 15 and Cardoso with 23
Georgia - Amihere with 17, Johnson with 13 and Cardoso with 20
Miss. St - Johnson with 21, Hall with 13 and Cardoso with 25
Alabama - Amihere with 13, Hall with 25, Johnson with 24 and Cardoso with 18
No one else in these games had double digit minutes.
That being said, the players that will come off the bench are solid. Two bigs and two guards.
Cardoso is the big one, certainly in stature. The 6'7" junior center plays all of that size. She is third on the team in scoring at 9.3 PPG and makes most of her baskets from inside the charge/block circle. She is second on the team in rebounding at 8.4 RPG. Staley doesn't play her many minutes with Boston but sometimes they do play the twin towers. Forget getting to the basket when that happens.
Amihere is a hybrid. At 6'4", she plays the forward position, usually coming in for Saxton. But she also plays some point forward at the top of the key. She is a terrific athlete but not a great offensive player. She is averaging 7.2 PPG and only 2.3 RPG. Another weak three point shooter, she is only 2-13 from deep. She adds great defense when she is in there.
Bree Hall, a 6' Sophomore guard brings some offense off the bench at the guard position. She is averaging 6.1 PPG in her 16 minutes and while she doesn't score a lot she has recently scored 18 points against Alabama in her second double digit scoring effort of the season. Not a good ball handler, like many South Carolina players, it's her defense that gets her minutes.
The second player in the point guard duo with Fletcher is 5'8" RS freshman Raven Johnson. She seems to be getting a few more minutes recently and no doubt she is a talented player. But she is not a scoring player averaging only 3.6 PPG. She does lead the team with 66 assists and only 27 turnovers. Ranked No. 2 in the class, her knee injury last season put her behind in development. She has some skills
Any way you look at it, Dawn is most likely only playing 8 players against UConn with significant minutes. They pretty much tag team at every position.
PG - Fletcher, Johnson
SG - Cooke, Hall
Center - Boston, Cardoso
PF - Saxton, Cardoso, Amihere
G - Beal, Amihere
We all know this South Carolina team very well. Boston is just a dominant player. Juhasz and Edwards will have their hands full. Once she gets the ball in the paint, she has a myriad of post moves that pretty much makes her unstoppable. She either makes the basket or gets fouled. The Huskies can't stop her but they can make if more difficult for her by denying the entry pass and pressuring the guards so they can't make that pass.
The problem with that strategy is that Cooke can dribble drive past the defender when they are played close. Then it will be up to Dorka and Edwards to protect the rim. Look for both guards to pass off the drives if that is the case. It's a real conundrum for the Huskies. Hey, it's not supposed to be easy according to Geno.
Cardoso has almost as many offensive rebounds as defensive rebounds. She is just a terrific rebounder and solid at putting them in the basket. It's a huge part of their offense as Boston has the same number of offensive rebounds. Between the two of them they grab almost 8 per game.
So, I've only mentioned three players on offense and there is a reason for that. Boston, Cardoso and Cooke take over 41% of their shots on the season. And against those six teams I mentioned earlier it's even more. Over 50% of their shots.
As a team, South Carolina has struggled at times offensively. Their offense is a little better than last year, but that is not why they are so good. They are shooting 47.1% from the field and 32% on threes. Not that good for the top rated/ranked team in the country. In regards to three pointers, Cooke has improved this season to 38% and takes around 33% of their threes. Hall and Beal are really the only other three point threats but they don't take that many, only around 4-5 per game between them. They each had a couple of good games that brought them to their combined 37.6%.
While not a great shooting team from deep, they have a solid assists/turnover ratio. Only 16.6 assists per game but that makes sence since they score a ton on offensive rebounds.
But it's not offense that propels South Carolina to their wins. They win with great defense. They only give up an incredible 29% on field goals and 22.8% on threes. That's 1st and 2nd in the country. Their big advantage is their rebounding, especially on the offensive end. It's the reason they take more shots than their opponents. They grab 46% more offensive rebounds than their opponents. Put the rebounding advantage and FG% numbers together and you can see why they only give up 46 PPG (1st in the country).
UConn is clearly going to have their hands full with South Carolina. They just don't let you get good shots. The Huskies will have to hit their threes when they do open up and do three big things, rebound, rebound, rebound. That means blocking out when South Carolina misses a shot.
It looks like UConn will again go with big minutes for their starting five, so different than the Gamecocks. You can bet that unless there is foul trouble 38-40 minutes for each with Patterson allowing Geno to grab a minute here and there for spelling the starters.
So, the questions are -
Will the 8 player rotation for South Carolina equal UConn's starting five in production?
Can UConn rebound well enough to prevent South Carolina from dominating the paint?
Can UConn get and hit their open threes?
Can South Carolina hit enough threes to keep UConn from packing the paint?
Final Prediction
To me, this is a game between the two best teams in the country. SECCreme has finally made UConn a No. 1 seed, as they deserve. And they 1/2 in Massey, NET and probably everywhere but the subjective polls. But that is another subject for another time.
With three days off between games and the adrenaline rush, I just don't see fatigue for the Huskies being an issue. And if that is the case and UConn can stay out of foul trouble, the Huskies will have more talent on the court. I'm sure the South Carolina fans would disagree, but they'd be wrong.
We can't forget the 16K+ fans cheering on UConn. It makes a difference.
I said in a blog the other day that this South Carolina team reminds me of the really good Tennessee teams that win on defense and rebounding. However, I seem to remember UConn finding a way to beat those teams many times with skill and guile. So...you can guess what that means.
UConn by 3+.
No comments:
Post a Comment