UConn at Notre Dame Game Preview

Disclaimer - no real babies were hurt in this picture

 

Ahh....rivalries. There is nothing like it, especially in sports. Until UConn beat Tennessee there was no rivalry, and since they don't play anymore and Pat has stepped down, the only rivalry there is between these two teams is between the fan bases.

 

The fact is, you can't have a REAL rivalry unless both teams have had success against each other.

There was a brief period of competition between UConn and Rutgers from about 2005 - 2008, but since UConn beat Rutgers for the regular-season championship in March of 2008, the Knights haven't beaten the Huskies since. So that rivalry is gone.

 

There is only one true rival right now for UConn and that is Notre Dame. Just ask Breanna Stewart who was recently quoted.

 

At practice on Wednesday, the Huskies were asked about the rivalry and if they hate the Irish.
“Yes, yes we hate them,” said Breanna Stewart."   

Her honesty was refreshing. And I seem to remember a similar quote from McBride last year. A little team hate is ok. The players don't hate each other, but they sure to hate losing to each other. 

 

While the overall advantage is 31-11 UConn, between the evenly matched records over the last several years in head to head (ND having a big advantage over part of that), the personalities (Diggins, Novosel, McBride, Ochanwa), and the interaction between the coaches (Altavilla has a great article on this), you have a great rivalry growing. Thankfully they have decided to continue meeting again in the regular season and with ND #1 in one poll and #2 in another, and UConn at #3 in both, it's another meeting of what I consider the two best teams in the country. Sorry South Carolina fans, I'm not buying you yet. 

 

UConn is coming off a nice three days of fun, sun and some excellent basketball in the Gulf Coast Classic held in Estero Florida. After a very difficult pill to swallow in that Stanford OT loss, UConn has rebounded nicely with 4 well played wins. Against a very good Green Bay team, UConn was hit hard and often in a very physical game. Geno felt they took a little while to work through it, but after a tough 15 minutes of back and forth play UConn was able to fight back and take control, winning by 36 points. It was good to see them push back when pushed. The team chemistry improved game to game and I agree with Geno when he said, "I like this team more now than I did before the tournament.".      

     

Notre Dame comes into this game undefeated and ranked first in the coaches poll and second in the AP poll right behind South Carolina. They are ranked first in scoring offense and margin of victory according to the latest NCAA Stats. This team knows how to score. Their defense helps as they look to cause a lot of turnovers if possible and run off of those errors. With Loyd, Allen and Turner they have three players that are as good as any trio in running the court and they take full advantage of that.

 

In what some thought (not me) would be a tough test for ND, on Wednesday night they played at the time #10/#15 ranked Maryland. From the start it was clear that Notre Dame was the Alpha Dog and Maryland was really intimidated. While the Irish ran their offense to perfection, Maryland had no clue how to attack the ND defense. The Terps had no one willing to take a 3 point shot, no solid screens to free shooters, no ability to finish once they drove past the defenders. And mostly The Terps had no will to handle the tough ND players, and believe me they are tough.

 

Here are the rosters of players that I anticipate getting regular minutes in this game. I had this part started days ago and now with the injury to Turner I had to move things around. The word out of South Bend is the injury is not that bad.....good news. She is going to be listed as day to day, a game time decision. So, how the hell do I write this preview? with or without her?

 

I'm going to go with writing without her. I do add a few caveats if she does end up playing.  I have no inside information but I can't believe the shoulder will be that stable, even if only a slight injury. So why chance contact that will make it worse in an OOC game in December. A loss without her won't mean much in the scheme of things.

 

So of course she will play and make the rest of this post moot.

 

 

#3 UCONN @ #1 Notre Dame

Day: Saturday

Date: December 6, 2014

Location: Notre Dame, Ind. (Purcell Pavilion) 

Time: 3:30

TV: ESPN

Records UConn 5-1, Notre Dame 8-0  




   

UConn Starters
 

11 Kia Nurse 6' Freshman Guard


MPG 26.2, FG% .600, 3PT% .421,

PPG 13.7, RPG 4.8, APG 3.0, 9 steals, 0 blocks

4 Moriah Jefferson 5'7" Junior Guard



MPG 27.3, FG% .542, 3PT% .412,

PPG 11.2, RPG 2.0, APG 5.2, 13 steals, 2 blocks

 




23 Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis 5'11" Senior Forward


MPG 31.8, FG% .577, 3PT% .615,

PPG 18.0, RPG 4.6, APG 2.2, 13 steals, 0 blocks

3 Morgan Tuck 6'2" Sophomore Forward



MPG 24.5, FG% .450, 3PT% .214,

PPG 12.5, RPG 4.2, APG 3.0, 4 steal, 0 blocks

30 Breanna Stewart 6'4" Junior Forward


MPG 29.7, FG% .556, 3PT% .455,

PPG 16.7, RPG 6.8, APG 3.0, 10 steals, 7 blocks

UConn Bench

41 Kiah Stokes 6'3"  Senior Center


MPG 20.2, FG% .519, 3PT% .000

PPG 6.2, RPG 7.5, APG 1.3, 2 steals, 21 blocks

 

12 Saniya Chong 5'8" Sophomore Guard



MPG 24.0, FG% .450, 3PT% .345

PPG 8.0, RPG 3.0, APG 1.8, 3 steal, 2 blocks


 




15 Gabby Williams 5'11" Freshman Guard


MPG 16.2, FG% .667, 3PT% .000

PPG 7.6, RPG 4.8, APG 0.4, 8 steals, 2 blocks





UConn Complete Stats




 

 

 

Notre Dame Starters

 

 

                        

 

 

  32  Jewel Loyd 5'10" Junior Guard

  

 

MPG 23.4 FG% .533, 3PT% .389

PPG 21.1, RPG 5.3, APG 3.5, 13 steals, 4 blocks

 

15 Lindsay Allen 5'7" Sophomore Guard

MPG 23.3, FG% .609, 3PT% .375

PPG 8.6, RPG 4.3, APG 4.0, 13 steals, 0 blocks

 

23  Michaela Mabry 5'10" Junior Guard

 

 

MPG 23.3, FG% .417, 3PT% .417

PPG 9.5, RPG 2.6, APG, 3.9, 7 steal, 0 blocks

 

12 Taya Reimer 6'3  Sophomore Forward

 

MPG 19.6, FG% .557, 3PT% .000

PPG 10.4, RPG 6.0, APG 2.3, 5 steals, 8 blocks

 

 

34 Markisha Wright 6'2" Senior Forward

 

MPG 14.9, FG% .565, 3PT% .000

PPG 4.9, RPG 3.1, APG 0.6, 4 steals, 3 blocks 

 

Notre Dame Bench

 

 

33 Kathryn Westbeld 6'2" Freshman Forward

 

MPG 18.8, FG% .488, 3PT% .800

PPG 7.8, RPG 5.8, APG 2.4, 11 steals, 6 blocks 

 

 

22 Madison Cable 5'11" Senior Guard

MPG 15.3, FG% .444, 3PT% .500

PPG 5.0, RPG 3.4, APG .6, 12 steals, 2 blocks

14 Mychala  Johnson 5'8" Freshman Guard

MPG 17.1, FG% .357, 3PT% .353

PPG 6.1, RPG 2.0, APG 2.1, 7 steals, 4 blocks

24 Hannah Huffman 5'9" Junior Guard

 

MPG 16.9, FG% .563, 3PT% .000

PPG 5.3, RPG 3.4, APG 1.1, 17 steals, 1 blocks

 

 

Game Time Decision

11 Brianna Turner 6'4" Freshman Forward

MPG 19.9, FG% .662, 3PT% .000

PPG 15.3, RPG 6.1, APG .9, 12 steals, 11 blocks 

 

 

 

Notre Dame Team Stats

Match ups

Many times games are won and lost based on match ups. Notre Dame will be playing a lot of zone with Turner out and the matchups don't always stay the same during the course of the game, but it's a good start to look at who has the advantage position by position. I believe that Stokes is the only center that will play on either team so I will just match up the forwards as best I can.  

 

Point Guard - Moriah Jefferson vs Lindsay Allen.

A terrific matchup of two of the best point guards in the country.

Allen has elevated her game this year in almost every possible way. She is shooting better, running the court better, facilitating better, scoring more, rebounding more. Mentally, she is no longer acquiescing to McBride and Achonwa, who were so forceful in their leadership abilities. It might be Loyd's team when talking about leading by example and just being THE player, but it's clear that Allen is becoming the leader of this team.

Jefferson had a slow start to the season, but found her footing in the Gulf Coast Classic. She was disruptive on defense and aggressive on offense. She is has continued with her excellent 3 point shooting from last year and that combined with her incredibly quick first step makes her almost impossible to guard.

Allen has improved, but so has Jefferson. Great matchup, but the edge goes to The Jet.

Advantage UConn

Shooting Guard - Kia Nurse vs Jewell Loyd.

 

Maybe the most intriguing matchup in the game.

 

On one hand you have clearly a 1st team AA player in Loyd. She has the entire package. An incredible athlete, her 3 point shooting has improved to go along with her ability to get to the basket. She is just an incredible scorer. She is also excellent in disrupting the passing lanes and her rebounding is underrated.

On the other hand, Nurse is a future AA as Geno stated. I think it will be sooner rather than later. She is also quite the athlete although not at the same level as Loyd. But Nurse is bigger and I think a little stronger. She seems to never get upset or show any anxiousness on the court, unusual for a freshman, but as we have seen all year, she is no ordinary freshman. I'm not sure there is anything ND can throw at her that would shake her up. She is cool as Ice out there. Ice...hmm...I like that....Ice water in her veins.

There is no way you can't give this matchup to Loyd. She is one of the best players in the country. Nurse is not....yet.

Advantage Notre Dame          

 

 

Forward - Kaleena Mosquada-Lewis vs Michaela Mabrey 

 

A matchup of two terrific shooters. 

 

Mabrey can be deadly when left open. And if you come up to defend, she will try to drive by you. But she has take 60 shots this year. 48 were three pointers. She is a decent passer but fairly one dimensional.

 

KML is the best open shooter in the country. She has struggled this year to get her own shot but has worked harder in recent games to get to the basket. Kaleena is a terrific rebounder and sees the court really well. I like her chances to post up Mabrey. Big advantage here. 

 

KML is an All-American. Mabrey is not.

 

Advantage UConn 

 

Forward -  Morgan Tuck vs Taya Reimer

 

I love this matchup. Two very strong and talented front court players.

 

Reimer has had a very solid start to her season and with Turner out against Maryland, she scored 21 points to help pick up the scoring for the missing Turner. Last year she was no match for Dolson who used her size advantage to dominate Reimer. 

 

Tuck has come back healthy and ready to play. She is a tough player to guard with her inside outside game and she has great is somewhat erratic post moves. 

 

A very tough one to call, so I'll wimp out and say.....

 

Advantage: EVEN

 

 

Forward - Breanna Stewart vs Markisha Wright/Brianna Turner 

 

As I've said earlier in this post, it's hard for me to imagine McGraw taking a chance with Turner. And even if she plays how effective will she be. Wright has had her moments for the Irish, but she struggled last year against UConn. 

 

Stewart has not been her dominant self, although most players would love to have her statistics. She looked more aggressive and almost pissed off in the Green Bay game, and I think Notre Dame brings out the best in her. Look for a breakout game..if a 2 time Final Four MVP needs one.

 

It doesn't matter who is across from Stewart.

 

Advantage UConn 

 

Bench - Stokes, Chong and Williams vs Westbeld, Cable, Johnson and Huffman

With Notre Dame, it's hard to figure how deep they will go. They haven't been in any tough games where they would shrink the rotation. So Johnson and/or Johnson might get some time. It's clear that Stokes is the best player on the bench and gives UConn the only game changer, be it on the defensive end, to come in and make an impact. Westbeld is an excellent freshman but she hasn't been in a game like this before.

 

Advantage UConn 

 

Coaches - Geno vs Muffet

I liked it better last year when they were slapping each other around...verbally that is. Now, after meeting this summer, it's nicey nicey....blech!!!

Just two of the best coaches in the country and neither one has an advantage.

Advantage EVEN
      

Final Analysis

Ok....these can't all be coincidences, can they?

Last year before the two teams met, Notre Dame played Maryland. Their best post player is injured and can't play. Notre Dame ran out to a big lead and destroyed Maryland even without the post player. Wright had a great game with 12 points and 9 rebounds.

This year before the two teams meet, Notre Dame played Maryland. Their best post player is injured (4 minutes into the game) and can't play. Notre Dame ran out to a big lead and destroyed Maryland even without the post player. Wright had a great game with 9 points and 8 rebounds.

Will UConn dominate again based on these similarities? Did man really land on the moon?

Spooky, huh? And who is that on the grassy knoll????

So, beyond the eerie coincidences, the bottom line are the players and their performances.

With Turner, ND can compete with UConn if she plays like a seasoned college player. She is capable but we wont really know if she is out with this shoulder injury or less than 100%.

Without her? It will be a big uphill climb to compete in this game. They don't have anyone to cover Stewart. If they double someone will be open and UConn looked good over the weekend in finding that person and then knocking down the shot. With only 3 forwards and no shot blockers, UConn should be able to get to the rim against either a zone or man. I can't imagine ND will predominantly play a zone. Against an excellent outside shooting team, that could be dangerous if the shots fall. onn the other hand, they had bad 1-1 matchups. Not an easy choice for McGraw.

UConn will play mostly man-to-man defense. I think Geno likes his matchups. But it will be the usual switching defense so you won't see Nurse playing on Loyd 100% of the time. They did this last year with great success. If UConn takes Loyd out of her game, then who scores for ND? Who makes up for the 15 points that Turner has been producing? Can Mabrey find open spots to launch her accurate 3 pointers?

I know that recent concerns have been expressed by many UConn fans on the way players drive by UConn defenders. I'm not sure that is the issue. To me it was the lack of help defense. UConn plays it's best defense when they are constantly switching and helping when one player is beaten by the opposing player. And the post defender rotates in to help out.  As the weekend went on, UConn looked much better in this aspect of their game and I expect that to continue on Saturday. I believe Stewart will have more defensive freedom if Turner is out. This will allow her to come off of her man to help protect the basket. ND has no one to match up with Stokes either and she will be a force defending the box. I haven't mentioned Williams yet, but she just keeps getting better and better. I think she matches up well at the 4 with either Wright or Westbeld. And speaking of Westbeld, she is having a solid freshman year. You can see why Geno was so high on her during the recruiting process. I do expect her to have a good game. I'll be looking for her and Tuck to match up at times. Two strong players battling...I love it. 

So, final prediction? Notre Dame games are always tough to get a handle on. And even tougher when you are missing a key player like Turner or she isn't 100%.  They are so well coached and they just intimidate with their "aura" especially at home. They get great attendance and more so when UConn is involved. That arena will be rocking. But even with that strong home court advantage I just don't think Notre Dame has enough firepower to keep it close. After the early adrenalin rush, UConn will pull away. The guard play will counter each other but the UConn front line of Stewart, Tuck, KML and Stokes will be too much for the depleted Irish front court. But McGraw is such a great coach and she will use every trick she knows to keep it close. So.........

UConn by 10+.

GO HUSKIES!!!!!!

P.S. I was reminded by one of the posters on NDNation, the Notre Dame board, that I did not include foul trouble in my analysis. He is of course, correct, foul trouble can change everything. If Turner is out, ND can not afford Reimer to get into foul trouble and of course, UConn is always wary of the occasional flop. The refs could have a lot to do with the outcome, but I'm hopeful we won't even notice them.