Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Doggy's UConn at Arkansas Pregame Report









            













Thursday January 28, 2021
6:00 EST (Changed from 5:00)
  • Bud Walton Arena 
Fayetteville Arkansas
ESPN2


No. 3 UConn Huskies                         No. 19 Arkansas Razorbacks
                10-0                                                               11-6


Prior Meetings

 UCONN LEADS 1-0 
H: 0-0 | A: 0-0 | N: 1-0
 
11/14/98 #3 UConn 100, No. 18 Arkansas 64 San Jose, Calif


Believe it or not, here is the full game 
from the 1998 match up.

Gary Blair, current coach of Texas A&M was the coach for Arkansas in this game. 
He coached there 10 years.

It was a lot of fun to watch!

Arkansas Season to Date

Arkansas come into this game after losing 75-73 in a heart breaker to No. 22 Georgia on Monday night. They led for most of the game but lost at the buzzer. Killer loss. The Razorbacks come into this game ranked No. 19. You might wonder how a team with 5 (now 6) losses is still ranked. They started out at No. 14. Sometimes it's who you lose to. After three wins to start the season they lose to No. 12
Maryland 115-96 in an offensive explosion for both teams. That loss moved Arkansas down two spots to No. 16. They then won 6 games in a row including a big 83-78 win over No. 9 Baylor. They jumped up 3 spots to No. 13. After that winning streak they moved up to No. 10, their season's high point. Arkansas then lost to No. 13 Kentucky 75-64 and the Razorbacks dropped back down to No. 13. They soon lost back to back games to soon to be ranked Tennessee 88-73 and to No. 8 Texas A&M 74-73 in another tough loss. This dropped them 4 spots to No. 17. They beat Florida 84-80 to somehow move up 2 spots to No. 15. And finally, after getting hammered by No. 4 South Carolina 104-82, they dropped to their current spot of No. 19.

Whew.

Well, after the loss to Georgia, a loss to UConn give them 7 losses and would knock them out of the Top 25. As you can imagine, this is a huge game for the Razorbacks.

Comparative Team Stats

                                           UConn                                       Arkansas

                                              89.0              PPG                        85.4
                                              47.9        Defensive PPG             74.4
                                              41.1        Scoring Margin            11.8
                                              54.5        Field Goal %                43.6
                                              29.4        Defensive FG%            43.4 
                                              35.8        Three Point %             37.4
                                              23.8        Defensive 3PT%          32.2
                                              72.0        Free Throw %              73.9
                                              43.9        Rebounds/game            36.1
                                              14.6        Rebounding Margin     -5.6 
                                              22.8        Assists per game           13.2
                                              14.9        Turnover per game      10.4
                                                1.5        Assists/TO ratio             1.3
                                              10.3        Steals per game              8.5
                                                5.6        Blocks per game            2.6  

UCONN 




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Arkansas Razorbacks




   Arkansas Starters



 Game Analysis
     
Thank you Mike Neighbors for inviting UConn to Arkansas to add a game to the schedule. Not only does it give UConn another game so there is not such a long gap between games, but the Huskies also get to play against a Top 25 team. At least for this week.

As I mentioned, Arkansas is probably going to drop out of the Top 25 if they lose to UConn. If you take a closer look at the Razorbacks last 7 games, you will see how quickly the fall has been. After beating Arkansas Pine-Bluff to go 9-1 and enter the Top 10, they have now gone 2-5. The only wins were against the bottom of the SEC. 

The Razorbacks start 4 guards in 5'11" RS Senior guard Chelsea Dungee who averages 21.6 PPG, 5'7" RS Senior guard Destiny Slocum 15.6 PPG, 5'9" Sophomore guard Makayla Daniels 13.1 PPG, 5'9" RS Senior guard Amber Ramirez 11.6 PPG, and their only size in the starting lineup 6'1" Senior forward Tayla Thomas 6.5 RPG.     

Off the bench, the Razorbacks will only play 5'9" RS Senior guard Jailyn Mason 4.3 PPG, 6'2" RS Sophomore forward Erin Barnum 8.4 PPG second leading rebounds at 4.8 per game and 6' Sophomore foward Marquesha Davis 5.6 PPG.      

The Razorbacks problem is clearly defense. When looking at the comparable stats I actually thought I made a mistake when I typed it in. They give up 74.4 points per game. That is just horrible. Inf fact, it's 305th in the country. Think about that! Part of the issues is that they play so quickly that both teams get a lot of shots off and add to that they they allow 43.4% shooting for their opponents and you can see their problems. 

They also allow 12 offensive rebounds per game giving their opponents way too many second chances. UConn only gives up 6 per game. Speaking of rebounds, Arkansas only grabs 36 RPG and gives up 43 RPG. It's a big disadvantage.   
 
Arkansas has a very simple formula. Take a lot of threes for one. Take them on the break, take them on kick out passes, just take them. And they love to get to the free throw line. Dungee in particular will drive with reckless abandon and force the defense to foul her. They get to the line around 25 times a game. That is a really big numbers. That is how they beat Baylor. UConn will have to take care not to get in foul trouble. Geno will have someone help on Dungee and look for Nelson-Ododa to block some off the defender blocks. She is excellent at that. 

I'm sure everyone will remember when the Razorbacks second leading scorer Destiny Slocum played for Maryland and in her freshman season she scored 23 points and was 5-10 on three pointers along with 7 assists in coming close to leading the Terps to an upset of UConn. Does she have a flashback and have a big game? We all thought she would end up an All-American,  but she really never reached that level.

Arkansas plays man-to-man on defense but just struggles to keep opponents out of the paint. I'm sure that Nelson-Ododa and Aubrey Griffin will be tough on the board, especially Griffin on the offensive boards. She is a brutal match-up for the Razorbacks.

UConn will use their outstanding ball movement to get plenty of open shots. The question will be how many they hit. If Paige is close to 100%,  she will slice up the Razorback defense will her passes and pull up jumpers. And if they dominate the defensive boards, UConn will run, run, and run some more.

In the half court, I'm hoping that Nelson-Ododa lives in the low block. They have no one to cover her and she really could have a big game here. If Arkansas sags in the middle to double Olivia, there should be plenty of open shots, and Williams and Westbrook should take advantage of that. 

Anyway you look at it, this game will be a lot of fun to watch. 

Final Prediction

I did a quick statistical comparison of Arkansas with DePaul and the similarities are amazing. This is my guide to predicting this game. They both score a lot and give up a lot of points. But when UConn played DePaul, they held them to 52 points while winning by 23 points. 

I don't see UConn holding them to 52 points. Arkansas is a little more aggressive than DePaul and will get to the foul line more often. But I think UConn will score more than 75 points as well. 

A lot will depend on the status of UConn's best player, Paige Bueckers.  

I'll go  with UConn by 18+. And without Paige? 12+  

4 comments:

  1. I enjoyed the 1998 rerun game. Some take aways
    * In the first half Shea Ralph reminded me of Nika Muhl with her
    intensity and mannerisms
    *The similarities between that team and the current one especially
    with all the freshmen
    * How energetic and positive Geno was in the end seems the years have
    worn him down.
    * Swintayla Cash
    * Lisa Mattingly as a young ref

    ReplyDelete
  2. Didnt Destiny leave UMD after her freshman year? Anybody know why. That game where she almost beat Uconn was the one where Katie Lou barfed into a bucket during a timeout, still played 39 mins and had 23 pts. Great game.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear Unknown 2 you have a great memory

    ReplyDelete