No. 10 UConn Huskies Oregon Ducks
9-3 (4-0) 9-5 (2-1)
UConn at Oregon
Monday January 17th,5:00 PM
Eugene, Oregon
Mathew Knight Arena
ESPN2
Prior Meetings
OREGON | UCONN LEADS 3-1
H: 1-1 | A: 1-0 | N: 1-0
12/31/12 #1 UConn 95, Oregon 51 Eugene, Ore.
11/20/13 #1 UConn 114, Oregon 68 Hartford, Conn.
03/27/17 #1 UConn 90, Oregon 52 Bridgeport, Conn.
02/03/20 #3 Oregon 74, #4 UConn 56 Storrs, Conn.
Highlight from last meeting 2/3/2020
Ignore this game. Not one player from Oregon played in that game.
Oregon Overview
Oregon has had a similar season to UConn in regards to missing players. Sabally only played 3 games in 2021. She has been back for all the games in January. Rogers only played one game in 2021 and has been back for all the January games. And finally, their best guard, PaoPao had the same playing time as Rogers. One game in 2021 and finally back for all of January. That four game stretch is huge in builing continuity. The opposite end of the injury situation is Prince. She played most of 2021 but has missed a few games in January.
So bottome line, the last game against Arizona was the first time they had all their players available. It's a picture of what can happen when Bueckers and Fudd are back for UConn. Huge improvement. And it showed when Oregon made a huge comeback in the fourth quarter to beat the 7th ranked Wildcats 68-66 in overtime.
The earlier season losses have to be taken with a grain of salt without their full compliment of players.
UCONN
It's just crazy who has transfered and who is out with injuried.
Down to nine of the original fourteen.
are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
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OREGON
OREGON STARTERS
OREGON BENCH
Game Analysis
Boy, it's been a while since I wrote a full Pregame Report. I forgot how much work it is!! But I loved doing it.
So, how should I start off. Well, let me just say that Oregon is a better team than their record shows. Three of their starters, Sabally, PaoPao and Rogers have played a total of 17 games between them. And those are their three leading scorer. Imagine that Paige and Azzi came back for this game. That is close to the equivalent.
At full strength, the Ducks are a handful. But I believe even shorthanded, UConn matches up well with them. So, for this game, I'll try to do a player to player comparison and then a final analysis.
5'9" Te-hina PaoPao vs 5'10" Nika Muhl. Now, this should be a great matchup. PaoPao is a terrific offensive player. She can get to the rim, and while her long range shooting is down, it's over a short period of time. This is why I believe Geno will assign Nike to her. If Muhl can contain her, UConn has a good chance of taking this game. Advantage Oregon
5'7" Endia Rogers vs 5'11" Christyn Williams. Rogers is the true point guard on this team and does a great job taking care of the ball. A good three point shooter, Williams will have to stay with her on the perimeter. I'm not sure that Rogers can handle the physical nature of Christyn's game. I'd look for UConn to take advantage of this match up. Advantage UConn
5'11" Maddie Scherr vs 6'2" Caroline Ducharme. Two big guards going after it. Both good three point shooters but Scheff is the better ball handler, certainly as the more experienced player. I think Carolina's size will give her an advantage. Advantage UConn
6'5" Nyara Sabally vs 6'5" Olivia Nelson-Ododa. Wow...two really good big and it's tough to say how this matchup will go. Sabally is a really good scorer and rebounder. Certainly will eventually join her sister in the WNBA. ONO will have her hands full. Sabally will run the court and pound the glass. But ONO is on a roll, seems to have figured some things out and I expect her to come up big. However, it's as even as it gets. Advantage EVEN.
6'7" Sedona Prince vs 6'5" Dorka Juhasz. Another great matchup. And two big and physical players. Healthy, Prince is a great center. Moves better than her size would tell you. But she hasn't been healthy and I believe her minutes could be limited, especially after a tough game just two days before this one. Dorka has had a downturn the last couple of game but we have all seen what she is capable of. Still have to give a slitght edge to Prince. Advantage Oregon.
Bench - Parrish, Hurst and Pinto vs Edward and Westbrook. I like the two players coming off the bench for UConn vs the three for Oregon. I think Westbrook is the most talented of all the bench players and Edwards is right behind her. Great three point shooting in Parrish and Hurst for Oregon. Advantage UConn
I've read in multiple places that Oregon has a big advantage in size. But it's really not true. It's 6'7", 6'5", 5'11", 5'9" and 5'7" vs 6'5", 6'5", 6'2", 5'11", and 5'10". I don't see much of an advantage there for Oregon. In fact, Duchame tips the scales in UConn's favor. And with 6' Westbrook and 6'3" Edwards coming off the bench for UConn, it's really in UConn's favor.
Intagibles are in favor of Oregon. The home court is a big one. UConn having to fly cross country is another. One in favor of UConn is the fatigue factor. It was a tough and wearing game against Arizona and with only one day to recover and an early start (2:00 PST) UConn might be able to wear them out. One more intangible. It's Westbrooks return home game. I'd look for a big game from her.
Final Prediction
This is a tough one to figure out. Oregon has some great players, but they just haven't been on the court at the same time. They are now. UConn is just starting to figure out how to play without Bueckers. It's been a tough road, but it's easy to see how much better they are playing. But again the last two games have been against pretty weak opponents. Is it fool's gold to think they can do it against a team as good as Oregon?
UConn has to get out on the three point shooters and keep Oregon off the FT line. Not easy with Sabally and Prince down low. But I like how UConn's defense has become the personality of this team. Lots of hedging and recovering by the players.
I'm really looking forward to this game. It will be a true test of the willpower and intensity of this UConn team. And I'm thinking they come through with flying colors.
UConn by 8+.
I have UCONN winning but by a closer margin. Good writeup.
ReplyDeleteWestbrook will come up big to show her homies so DD's prediction will come true.
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