Monday Feb 13th 2017
Gampel Pavilion, Storrs
Time: 9:00
TV: ESPN2
No. 1 UConn 24-0 No. 2 South Carolina 21-2
Head to Head
Team Overviews
Fun "I can make your hands clap" video
Stat by Stat Comparison
Leader is bolded
South Carolina comes into this game on a three game winning streak after their 76-74 loss to Tennessee in a game that SC had no business losing. Their only other loss this season was 74-63 to now ranked Duke. They have several wins over teams ranked when they played them. They beat then No. 25 Kentucky 75-63, then No. 4 Mississippi State 64-61, then No. 9 UCLA 66-57, then No. 14 Texas 76-67, then No. 4 Louisville 83-59 and then No. Ohio State 92-80. So, they have beaten every ranked team they have played and their two losses are to unranked teams (although both are ranked now). They are also 11-1 in the SEC leading that conference by 1/2 game over Mississippi State. In looking at their stats, I was so impressed with the home attendance for the GameCocks. They get over 12,000 per game. Sadly UConn is under 9000.
UConn is now 24-0 after winning against SMU XX_XX. They have now scored over 90 points in their last 8 outings. UConn has now beaten 8 ranked teams.
Stat by Stat Comparison
Leader is bolded
UCONN South Carolina
86.8 Points Per Game 77.0
53.7 Opp Points Per Game 54.9
.520 Field Goal % .466
.343 Opp Field Goal % .346
.396 3 Point Field Goal % .342
.256 Opp 3 Point Field Goal % .269
.773 Free Throw % .701
39.3 Rebounds Per Game 41.9
33.4 Opp Rebounds Per Game 32.3
23.5 Assists Per Game 15.4
12.3 Turnovers Per Game 13.3
1.9 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.2
1.9 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.2
10.5 Steals Per Game 8.7
4.8 Blocks Per Game 5.9
UConn clearly has the advantage in most of the statistics. It's no surprise that South Carolina leads in three categories that are directly related to their size advantage, Rebounds per game, Opponents rebounds per game and blocked shots per game. UConn leads in every other category.
UCONN
UConn Starters
33 Katie Lou Samuelson
6'3" Sophomore Guard/Forward
MPG 30.9, FG% .501, 3PT% .432, FT% .807, PPG 21.4, RPG 3.9, APG 2.6
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Sophomore Forward/Guard
MPG 29.5, FG% .675, 3PT% .346, FT% .800, PPG 19.1, RPG 8.7, APG 2.3
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Junior Forward
MPG 27.6, FG% .558, 3PT% .200, FT% .667, PPG 12.5, RPG 8.4, APG 5.4
11 Kia Nurse
6' Junior Guard
MPG 32.3, FG% .464, 3PT% .421, FT% .857, PPG 13.3, RPG 2.5, APG 4.0
12 Saniya Chong
5'8" Senior Guard
MPG 28.2, FG% .487, 3PT% .422, FT% .795, PPG 7.9, RPG 2.5, APG 4.0
UConn Bench
5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Freshman Guard
MPG 22.2, FG% .402, 3PT% .304, FT% .636, PPG 5.7, RPG 2.4, APG 3.2
51 Natalie Butler
6'5" RS Sophomore Center
MPG 17.5, FG% .484, 3PT% .000, FT% .750, PPG 5.8, RPG 4.8, APG 1.1
10 Molly Bent
5'9" Freshman Guard
MPG 10.7, FG% .267, 3PT% .286, FT% .625, PPG 1.1, RPG 1.7, APG 1.5
25 Kyla Irwin
6'2" Freshman Forward
MPG 8.1, FG% .425, 3PT% .250, FT% .684, PPG 2.4, RPG 1.5, APG .5
20 Tierney Lawlor
5'7" Senior Guard
MPG 3.2, FG% .000, 3PT% .000, FT% .500, PPG 0.0, RPG .3, APG .1
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Head Coach Dawn Staley
At the helm of the Gamecocks over the last eight seasons, Staley has been named National Coach of the Year (2014, Basketball Times), a Naismith National Coach of the Year Finalist (2014, 2015, 2016), SEC Coach of the Year (2014, Coaches and AP; 2015, Coaches; 2016, Coaches and AP) and BCA Female Coach of the Year (2012). Under Staley's leadership, four Gamecocks have collected eight All-America selections, two have picked up three SEC Player of the Year honors, two have earned SEC Defensive Player of the Year recognition, one has been the SEC 6th Player of the Year and three were named SEC Freshman of the Year. She has coached 10 Gamecocks who earned All-SEC honors a combined 19 times, including nine first-team selections, and two Gamecocks have been selected in the WNBA Draft in the last two seasons, including 2016 selection Tiffany Mitchell who became the third first-round selection for South Carolina.
On Staley's watch, the Gamecocks are enjoying the most sustained success in program history, especially standing out among their 25 seasons in the SEC. After posting back-to-back 25-win seasons in 2011-12 and 2012-13 for the first time in more than 30 years, the 2014-15 team broke the school record with 34 wins. South Carolina has won more SEC games than the season before in each of Staley's last seven seasons, culminating in the 2015-16 team recording just the second 16-0 conference record in league history. Staley's 83 SEC wins are more than any other Gamecock coach, accounting for 56.5 percent of the program's total 147 wins over its 25 seasons in the SEC. She has delivered the only SEC championships in program history, lifting that trophy three times in as many seasons, and she has helped the Gamecocks to five of the program's six top-four finishes in the SEC. Off the court, Staley's Gamecocks have been active in the community and thriving in the classroom. Every student-athlete who completed her eligibility under Staley at South Carolina has graduated or is on track to graduate, and the team GPA has been over 3.0 for the last seven semesters. During the historic 2014-15 season, eight Gamecocks posted at least a 3.0 GPA for the year.
Team Video
South Carolina Starters
22 A'ja Wilson
6'5" Junior Forward
6'5" Junior Forward
2016-17: MPG 26.5, FG% .582, 3PT% .000, FT% .705, PPG 17.0, RPG 7.1, APG 1.7
41 Alana Coates
6'4" Senior Center
2016-17: MPG 27.6, FG% .670, 3PT% .000, FT% .670, PPG 14.0, RPG 11.5, APG 1.6
52 Tyasha Harris
5'10" Freshman Guard
2016-17: MPG 24.6, FG% .402, 3PT% .302, FT% .667, PPG 5.0, RPG 1.7, APG 3.0
10 Allisha Gray
6' Junior Guard
2016-17: MPG 27.8, FG% .505, 3PT% .345, FT% .747, PPG 13.2, RPG 4.6, APG 2.7
3 Kaela Davis
6'2" Junior Guard
2016-17: MPG 27.1, FG% .348, 3PT% .371, FT% .790, PPG 12.1, RPG 3.7, APG 2.3
South Carolina Bench
1 Bianca Cuevas
5'6" Junior Guard
2016-17: MPG 21.7, FG% .396, 3PT% .393, FT% .736, PPG 8.4, RPG 2.0, APG 1.9
4 Doniya Cliney
6'0" RS Sophomore Guard
2016-17: MPG 18.0, FG% .360, 3PT% .267, FT% .576, PPG 2.6, RPG 3.1, APG 1.1
21 Mikiah Herbert Harrigan
6'2" Freshman Forward
2016-17: MPG 15.7, FG% .404, 3PT% .000, FT% .667, PPG 4.1, RPG 3.7, APG .5
Game Analysis
Same - 6'5" A'ja Wilson and 6'4" Alaina Coates will be a handful. Both are so strong in the post once they receive the ball. And if they miss the first attempt but both can rebound the miss and put the ball back up quickly. Coates and Wilson have also improved in their passing to each other and the high-low game has been more effective.
Wilson is their leading scorer and second leading rebounder. She only goes left, or right then spin to the left. Everyone knows it. But she is talented enough to score anyway. I had thought she had matured some, but I still see her pout after fouls and the technical for continually saying "bullshit" to the ref after one call probably cost South Carolina the Tennessee game.
Coates is one big kid. She is a fantastic rebounder and can really carve out space in the post. Down low she is an excellent finisher, although she rarely uses her left hand. She has no range at all. A very one dimensional offensive player. She gets up and down the court better than she used to but no one will mistake her for a forward. A true center. I know there has been talk of AA status for her and she might make one of the 10 player teams. But she has had several games where she scored less than double digits and some of those were 5 or less points.
Change - South Carolina added two very talented transfers who are eligible this season. Allisha Gray came to the Gamecocks from North Carolina after two terrific seasons there. She is an excellent ball handler and a very streaky shooter. She loves to drive the lane and defenders better play her left hand hard. She is terrific at finding ways to get off her shot in traffic. I haven't been impressed with her defensive skills. She is a little slow afoot and sometimes reaches in too much.
The other transfer is the ultra-talented 6'2" guard Kaela Davis. But she tends to shoot too much for a player that only hits 35% of her shots. She is similar to Tennessee's Deshields in that way without as much "Diva". She is long and a difficult matchup for most teams. In reviewing her performances in their two losses and the tough win against MSU, she really struggled in those games.
The fifth starter is freshman guard Tyasha Harris. She is a good sized guard at 5'10". She is has taken and made some clutch shots this season. I really like her game and she will probably start the rest of her career after taking that role 13 games ago. She leads the team in assists and is the only player on the team to average over 3 assists per game. But I'm not so sure she is ready for this kind of defense that UConn will put on her.
The bench is comprised of three players. Bianca Cuevas-Moore, the 5'6" guard has had an interesting season so far. She started the first 11 games of the season before Dawn moved her to the bench. She has been inconsistent this season. She has had several games where she was terrific and others where she just disappeared. But she is shooting better this season overall and has a positive assist/TO ratio. She only played 5 minutes in the last game for South Carolina against Auburn. According to some reports Staley intentionally didn't play her - "South Carolina coach Dawn Staley wanted to take more time on offense, perhaps with an eye toward shortening a game against UConn, an opponent which can overwhelm opponents in transition. Staley mostly liked what she saw, saying when the Gamecocks broke ranks, Auburn made them pay with a fast-break basket or two. To that end, South Carolina backup point guard Bianca Cuevas-Moore played only five minutes and didn't get a shot off. Cuevas-Moore's specialty is fast-paced, high-impact scoring."
Doniyah Cliney a 6' sophomore guard and Harrigan Herbert a 6'2" forward comprise the rest of the bench. Cliney might see some minutes in this game, but she doesn't do much other than give the other players a rest. Herbert is the only size off the bench but I don't expect her to see many minutes at all unless there is some serious foul trouble.
So, how will Dawn use these players to beat the undefeated Huskies?
Offensively, you can bet that they will try to take advantage of their size and get the ball in the hands of Wilson and Coates. My guess is that Geno will have the 5'11" Gabby Williams cover Wilson. Giving up 6 inches to the talented Wilson will be her biggest challenge of the season. Wilson should be able to get her shot off so it will be more about keeping the ball out of her hands. One way is to keep the pressure on the guards to make that entry pass difficult or sag back from the shooters and front the posts. Of course, sagging back will give the shooters room to make threes and Gray and Davis both can get hot, so that is a risk.
UConn will put a ton of pressure on the guards as soon as they inbound trying to get SC to have as little time on the shot clock to set up their offense. The Huskies will also look to turn over South Carolina as they have every team.
It appears that Staley might slow down the game to keep UConn from running and scoring quickly. Let me tell you, Dawn Staley is no Harry Perretta. There is no way that this tactic will be effective. They don't have the players or the practiced strategy to do that.
On offense, I would bet that Geno will try to bring out both Coates and Wilson away from the basket and then drive by them with Williams and Collier. There is no way that the SC players can keep them in front of them. Both had a tendency to foul when the player they are guarding drives by them. Just watch last years game and see what Morgan Tuck did to Coates. I would look for a few back door plays to either Gabby or Napheesa. UConn will have to hit a decent percentage of their threes to keep the South Carolina defense honest.
I'm not sure how SC will counter this other than maybe going smaller and platooning the two bigs. I wouldn't be surprised if we see that some and maybe for even longer if there is foul trouble for either Wilson or Coates.
Player Matchups
I'm pretty sure that both teams will play man to man and the starting lineups are set. So here is how I see the matchups.
Point Guard - Saniya Chong vs Tayisha Harris. Just having a senior go against a freshman is an advantage. Chong is a better shooter, a better ball handler, a better passer. Harris's size might pose a problem for Chong, but the matchup is a clear advantage.
Advantage UConn.
Shooting Guard - Kia Nurse vs Allisha Gray. Maybe the best matchup of the game. Two hardnosed players who won't give an inch to each other. Kia is the better shooter and passer statistically, but when these two go head to head, you can throw those stats out the window. Both players will have to make sure the other doesn't get open looks from deep. Gray is streaky and I'm sure Geno doesn't want Kia to let her get off early.
Advantage EVEN
Small Forward/Guard - Katie Lou Samuelson vs Kaela Davis. This has the possibility of being another great matchup. Davis is quick enough and long enough to give Samuelson difficulty on the defensive end. But Katie Lou knows how to get open and she will run Davis through screen after screen to get her shot. Davis is just not a great shooter. Occasionally hot, but Samuelson's defense is underrated.
Advantage UConn.
Power Forward - Gabby Williams vs A'ja Wilson. The most unusual matchup of the game. 5'11" vs 6'5". On the surface, you would think this is all Wilson. How can Williams stop her? But UConn fans have watched Williams do some crazy things this year with her athletic ability and basketball smarts. She handled Mompremier of Baylor by using her quickness and lower body strength to keep her off the block. She can do this somewhat against Wilson. But A'ja is a better offensive player and she will get her 15-20 points no matter what. Williams will bring Wilson away from the basket and attempt to drive by her and finish with her trademark left hand. Should be fun to watch.
Advantage EVEN
Center - Napheesa Collier vs Alaina Coates - Another interesting matchup. 6'1 Collier and her slender body against 6'4" Coates and her ample size. Coates' issue is that she is no where near quick enough to cover Collier. Napheesa can bring Coates away from the basket and as Tuck did, drive by her fairly easily. Can Coates get the inside position and can the guards get her the ball? Will the big-to-big passing with Wilson work? Certainly it can some of the time. Collier is deceptively strong, so she will try to keep Coates off the blocks. And Coates is finishing better than years past.
Slight Advantage UConn.
Benches - Crystal Dangerfield and Natalie Butler vs Bianca Cuevas-Moore, Doniyah Cliney and Harrigan Herbert. Three against two? It comes down to who will contribute more in this particular game. And with Cuevas-Moore looking like her minutes will be limited, you have to think that UConn's bench will contribute a little more. But.....that is not necessarily true. Geno tends to shrink the benches minutes in big games. I don't expect this to be any different. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if neither bench makes that big a difference. Dangerfield is the wildcard in that theory. She will get her minutes.
Advantage UConn.
Coaches - Geno vs Dawn. Well, this is no contest. I know that Dawn has been pretty successful the last few years, but I have watched several games where she just makes too many mistakes in either time outs, game strategy or substitutions. Her plan to slow the game down (If that is what they really do) might be their only chance, but that is not in the DNA of her players. It can only screw them up. Geno is the best. Period. And given the challenge of handling South Carolina's bigs for Geno and the challenge of handling UConn's quickness for Dawn, well, I like UConn's chances.
Advantage UConn.
Final Prediction
Last season Massey had UConn winning 75-63 with the Huskies having an 86% chance of winning. It couldn't be more similar this year with Massey predicting a 76-64 win with an 86% chance of winning.
I guess you could tell where I am going with my prediction when I don't have one matchup favoring South Carolina. Sure, foul trouble can make a difference. Hot shooting for SC vs cold shooting for UConn could happen. But UConn will run them into the ground. I can't see the slower Gamecocks keeping up with UConn and slowing the game down will only limit South Carolina's scoring chances. UConn will run no matter what.
So, what does this mean? I feel confident that UConn will win this game. I'll say UConn by 10+ points because weird stuff will happen that will keep it close.
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