UCONN @ South Florida
Day: Monday
Date: February 27th, 2017
Time: 7:00
Location: Sun Dome, Tampa, Fla.
TV: ESPN2
No. 1 UConn Huskies No. 22 South Florida Bulls
28-0 (15-0) 22-6 (11-4)
Prior Meetings
UConn leads the series 21-0
12/28/02 W 72-56 A
12/1/04 W 75-65 (ot) H
1/24/06 W 77-47 H
2/20/07 W 81-67 A
3/4/07 W 74-54 N1/30/08 W 71-48 H
1/6/09 W 83-37 A
3/8/09 W 79-42 H
1/4/10 W 84-42 H
12/2/10 W 80-54 A
1/28/12 W 77-62 H
3/2/13 W 85-51 A
1/26/14 W 81-53 H
2/16/14 W 63-38 A
1/18/15 W 92-50 H
3/2/15 W 88-65 N
3/9/15 W 84-70 N
1/10/16 W 75-59 A
2/29/16 W 79-59 H
3/7/16 W 77-51 N
1/10/17 W 102-37 H
1/18/15 W 92-50 H
3/2/15 W 88-65 N
3/9/15 W 84-70 N
1/10/16 W 75-59 A
2/29/16 W 79-59 H
3/7/16 W 77-51 N
1/10/17 W 102-37 H
Team Overviews
You can't do team overviews without talking about the first matchup between these two teams. I thought before that game that UConn had some distinct advantages in size, speed and quickness that would lead to a 25+ point lead. Boy, did I underestimate that! The 102-37 drubbing was something else. UConn ran out to a 30-6 lead after one quarter and expanded that to 65-19 at the half. Geno put the brakes on the second half, only scoring 37 points, but the defense was still terrific holding South Florida to 18 points. Crazy game.
South Florida is 9-4 since that game. The four losses were to at the time No. 9 Louisville 66-52, Memphis 62-57, the same team that UConn just beat by 43 points, UCF 66-62 and now No. 23 Temple 77-71. In there last two game they beat Houston 79-50 and Tulsa 90-64 in their two best games in quite a while and their two highest scoring games since they met UConn.
UConn seems to have found their way after their close call against Tulane. The game against Temple where they won 90-45 and Senior Night against Memphis 91-48 had them back in the swing offensively.
Stat by Stat Comparison
Leader is bolded
UCONN South Florida
85.5 Points Per Game 72.6
53.5 Opp Points Per Game 59.4
.516 Field Goal % .438
.341 Opp Field Goal % .348
.385 3 Point Field Goal % .370
.265 Opp 3 Point Field Goal % .312
.774 Free Throw % .756
39.5 Rebounds Per Game 43.1
33.0 Opp Rebounds Per Game 33.1
23.1 Assists Per Game 14.6
12.8 Turnovers Per Game 13.3
1.8 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.1
1.8 Assists/Turnover Ratio 1.1
10.6 Steals Per Game 5.0
4.8 Blocks Per Game 2.9
UCONN
UConn Starters
33 Katie Lou Samuelson
6'3" Sophomore Guard/Forward
First UConn/USF Game 29 minutes, 18 points, 6 rebs, 1 assist, 6 steals
MPG 31.1, FG% .494, 3PT% .423, FT% .825, PPG 20.9, RPG 3.8, APG 2.9
24 Napheesa Collier
6'1" Sophomore Forward/Guard
First UConn/USF Game 26 minutes, 19 points, 3 rebs, 4 assists, 1 blk
MPG 29.8, FG% .680, 3PT% .382, FT% .825, PPG 19.8, RPG 8.9, APG 2.1
15 Gabby Williams
5'11" Junior Forward
First UConn/USF Game 21 minutes, 11 points, 13 rebs, 7 assists, 4 blks, 3 steals
MPG 28.5, FG% .556, 3PT% .167, FT% .675, PPG 12.8, RPG 8.8, APG 5.2
12 Saniya Chong
5'8" Senior Guard
First UConn/USF Game 30 minutes, 20 points, 3 rebs, 8 assists, 1 steal
MPG 29.8, FG% .467, 3PT% .386, FT% .795, PPG 8.1, RPG 2.7, APG 4.0
5 Crystal Dangerfield
5'5" Freshman Guard
First UConn/USF Game 20 minutes, 5 points, 2 rebs, 2 assists
MPG 23.8, FG% .385, 3PT% .298, FT% .550, PPG 5.8, RPG 2.2, APG 3.3
UConn Bench
51 Natalie Butler
6'5" RS Junior Center
First UConn/USF Game 19 minutes, 10 points, 4 rebs, 2 assists, 2 blocks
MPG 17.1, FG% .475, 3PT% .000, FT% .710, PPG 5.5, RPG 4.9, APG 1.1
10 Molly Bent
5'9" Freshman Guard
First UConn/USF Game 16 minutes, 2 points, 3 assists
MPG 10.5 FG% .267, 3PT% .286, FT% .625, PPG 1.0, RPG 1.6, APG 1.5
25 Kyla Irwin
6'2" Freshman Forward
First UConn/USF Game 11 minutes, 6 points, 3 rebs, 1 assists, 1 steal
MPG 8.3, FG% .432, 3PT% .286, FT% .714, PPG 2.4, RPG 1.5, APG .5
20 Tierney Lawlor
5'7" Senior Guard
First UConn/USF Game 3 minutes
MPG 3.5, FG% .000, 3PT% .000, FT% .500, PPG 0.0, RPG .4, APG .1
Out for the game
11 Kia Nurse
6' Junior Guard
First UConn/USF Game 25 minutes, 13 points, 7 rebs, 3 assists
MPG 32.7, FG% .462, 3PT% .422, FT% .857, PPG 12.8, RPG 2.4, APG 4.2
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Coach Jose Fernandez
Entering his 17th season as head coach, Fernandez is primed for another record-breaking season. The Bulls enter 2016 ranked in the AP Poll for 22-consecutive weeks and ended the 2015-16 season in the top-25 for the second straight year. Along with coaching the programs first All-American, Fernandez lifted the team to new heights in 2015-16 and achieved the highest ranking in program history, No. 15 in both the AP and USA Today coaches’ polls. USF made its 12th postseason run in 13 seasons and its fourth NCAA Tournament appearance in program history.
In 16 years at USF, Fernandez became the all-time winningest basketball coach (men’s or women’s) in school history with a program record of 285 wins. Fernandez adds a 2009 WNIT championship to his resume as well, and took the Bulls to the 2014 WNIT Final Four, becoming the winningest coach in the WNIT with 13 wins.
South Florida Starters
33 Kitija Laska
6' Sophomore Forward
First UConn/USF Game 32 minutes, 7 points, 2 rebounds
MPG 34.4, FG% .415, 3PT% .395, PPG 19.7, RPG 3.8 APG .9
11 Ariadna Pujol
6'1" Senior Guard/Forward
First UConn/USF Game 32 minutes, 6 points, 5 rebs, 1 block, 2 steals
MPG 34.6, FG% .434, 3PT% .228, PPG 12.8, RPG 6.7 APG 2.5
6'0" Junior Forward
First UConn/USF Game 37 minutes, 11 points, 7 rebounds
MPG 35.1, FG% .427, 3PT% .302, PPG 15.6, RPG 9.0 APG 1.8
5'7" Junior Guard
First UConn/USF Game 38 minutes, 6 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal
MPG 36.4, FG% .373, 3PT% .299, PPG 8.4, RPG 4.4 APG 6.2
23 Tamara Henshaw
6'1" Freshman Forward
First UConn/USF Game 18 minutes, 1 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal
MPG 25.9, FG% .630, 3PT% .000, PPG 6.9, RPG 7.3 APG 1.0
South Florida Bench
13 Dorottya Nagy
6'2" Freshman Forward
First UConn/USF Game 10 minutes, 2 rebounds
MPG 14.6, FG% .468, 3PT% .375, PPG 3.7, RPG 2.5 APG 1.4
Game Analysis
On some level, I think you can take that first game of the season out of the equation when analyzing this game.
For one thing, Kia Nurse won't be playing. While UConn seems to have adjusted well to that situation, they are just not the same team without her. The rotation is short, the guard defense is weaker and there is some missing leadership on the court.
The other thing is that South Florida is not as bad as they played in the first game and being on their home court for this one and the embarrassment of the first game, I'm pretty sure we won't see the same USF team that lost by 65 points.
That being said, the same matchup issues between these two squads still exists and UConn just has some advantages that won't go away in 6 weeks.
The 6' Katija Laksa is still the scoring star of this team. She has improved her scoring this year, trying to pick up some of the slack for the graduation losses. She is averaging 34.4 minutes and just short of 20 points per game. She takes almost 9 three point shots per game hitting them at a 39% clip. She really struggled in the last UConn game with Williams defending her for most of the game. But she is coming off a huge second half in their win over Tulsa scoring 27 points in the 20 minutes. So she might be on a roll.
The rest of starting lineup is made up of returning players that didn't have much impact statistically but have stepped up their game.
Maria Jesperson started 11 games last year and is an anchor in the starting lineup this season. The 6'2" forward has made a huge jump in her junior season. In her 35.1 mpg, she has her scoring up from 5.9 ppg to 15.6 and her rebounding up from 4.5 to 9.0. An amazing improvement for the young woman from Denmark. Even against the weak schedule, it's an impressive change. She is a terrific spot up three point shooter. And loves to drive hard right to the basket. She will find this much harder to do against the Huskies.
Another new starter this year is Ariadna Pujol, the 6'1" guard/forward from Spain. She has made as amazing a jump in her play as Jesperson has. Pujol started 2 games last year but has started every game this season. Her scoring is up from 2.9 to 12.8 and her rebounding up from 1.1 to 6.7. Some of that can be attributed to her increase in minutes, from 8.6 to 34.6. That she is performing well with those increased minutes is a great tribute to this young woman. She had a really nice handle and loves to tricky dribble in the lane. But UConn's quick hands will force turnovers.
Laia Flores, the 5'7" point guard is from the same town in Spain as Pujol. She started 26 games last year, so starting the game is not new to her. But she only played 13 minutes per game and this year, she is playing a ton more at her 36.4 mpg. Her scoring is up from 1.8 to 8.4 and rebounding up from 1.4 to 4.4. She also has a good handle and a nice eye for finding the open player.
As you can see, these four starters are from around the world, 2 from Spain, one from Latvia and one from Denmark. A world of experience even if they didn't play nearly as much last year except for Laksa.
The fifth starter just doesn't match the profile of a Coach Hernandez's player on this years team. One, she is from Palm Coast, Florida not overseas and she is a freshman, not an upper classman like her starting teammates. Tamara Henshaw is a big 6'1" forward that has pushed her way into the starting lineup by rebounding like a demon. She is only averaging 6.9 ppg, but her rebounding has been solid at 7.3 per game. She has had a few double digit rebounding efforts.
The only other player that will see significant minutes is Dorottya Nagy, a 6'2" forward for Pec, Hungary. She is the only other player that sees double digit minutes. But she is really there just to allow the starters to get a minute or two of rest or replace Henshaw when she is not performing.
Just like the first time these two teams met this season, I believe this is a really matchup for South Florida as they play only 6 players.
South Florida plays almost exclusively man-to-man, and they do it very well. They are not that quick, but they know how to move their feet to keep the defender in front of them. They have been well drilled. They held a high scoring UConn team to under 80 points three times last year but this year, they were just run over without the quick players that graduated from last years roster.
UConn will try to tire out the Bulls as four of their starters will be close to the 40 minute mark. UConn will press, run off misses, run off makes, run run run.
UConn will also be able to get to the rim as USF has no shot blocking presence. And as they try to protect the basket, Samuelson and Chong will get open looks from deep. This killed the Bulls in the last matchup.
Final Prediction
UConn has all the advantages and a player that has the ability on defense in Williams to shut down the best USF scorer. I would expect the game to be much closer than the 65 point margin, and at some time in the game, surprisingly close. But UConn will end up on the good end of a big score.
UConn by 35+.
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