Sunday, December 25, 2022

Doggy's UConn/Creighton Pregame Report

 

                    

  UConn Huskies                                            Creighton Bluejays
9-2 (2-0)                                                           8-3 (2-1) 

Date: Wednesday, December 28th 2022
Time: 8:30 PM
Where: D.J. Sokol Arena
Omaha, Nebraska
TV: SNY 


0
CREIGHTON | UCONN LEADS 5-0 
H: 3-0 | A: 2-0 | N: 0-0 

11/23/14 #1 UConn 96, Creighton 60 Storrs, Conn. 
12/17/20 #3 UConn 80, Creighton 47 Storrs, Conn. 
02/25/21 #1 UConn 81, Creighton 49 Omaha, Neb.
01/09/22 #9 UConn 63, Creighton 55 Storrs, Conn.
02/02/21 #10 UConn 76, Creighton 56 Omaha, Neb.

Creighton

Creighton comes into this game on a slide. They won their first seven games, beating at the time No. 23 South Dakota State 78-69, South Dakota 74-51, at the time No. 22 Nebraska 77-51, Northern Iowa 85-66,  Omaha 93-71, Big East mates Xavier 57-51 and at the time No. 25 VIllanova 67-46. The nice 7-0 start had them rise to No. 13 in the country. 

But after the Villanova win they then lost to now No. 25 St. John's 66-62, beat a scrappy Drake team 75-71, at the time No. 21 Arkansas 83-75 and No. 2 Stanford 72-59

A tale of two seasons so far, 7-0 and then 1-3. But the three losses are against teams that were ranked or are currently ranked. A tough schedule. Against Stanford,  they were down early 27-10 but outscored the Cardinal team 49-45 the rest of the way.  A somewhat moral victory.     

Comparative Team Statistics
(leader in bold)

                                                    UConn                                   Creighton  

                                              84.0        PPG                            72.9
                                              67.2        Defensive PPG            63.4
                                              16.8        Scoring Margin            9.5
                                              52.7        Field Goal %               43.4
                                              38.6        Defensive FG%           38.9 
                                              42.7        Three Point %             34.7
                                              31.8        Defensive 3PT%          27.3
                                              76.7        Free Throw %             76.6
                                              40.1        Rebounds/game           37.1
                                              10.5        Rebounding Margin         .6 
                                              21.8        Assists per game          15.8
                                              17.6        Turnover per game       11.7
                                                1.2        Assists/TO ratio             1.3
                                                7.3        Steals per game             6.7
                                                3.9        Blocks per game            2.9


 UCONN 







Creighton Starters






Creighton Bench


 



Game Analysis

Are these two things possible? The Bluejays return every player in their Top 8 rotation except one, but the team is just not as good? Of course they are. 

The stats from this season so far compared to last season are definitely not as good. You can pretty much put that on the graduation of their point guard from last season. Like Nika Muhl for UConn, Tatum Rembeo really controlled the tempo for Creighton last season and was by far the leading playmaker on the team. She had great stats with 200 assists and only 69 turnovers. Losing that has been a big impact on the Bluejays. 

However, they do return everyone else. But they are just not as effective offensively without Rembeo. Either players are all slumping in shooting or they are just not getting as good a shot without Rembeo.  I'd think most of that is the latter. 

Leading scorer 6'1" Junior Morgan Maly is averaging a team high 16.9 PPG but last year she shot 37.4% on threes and this season she is shooting 32.4%. She leads the team in rebounding as well at 6.4 per game.  

Tied with Maly as leading scorer 5'10" Lauren Jensen is averaging the same at 16.9 PPG but last season she shot an amazing 43.4% on threes and this year only 31.8%. 

These two by far take the most shots on the team and the most three pointers. Look for them to take 13+ three point shots in this game. Maybe closer to 20.    

Unlike last year's Creighton team, who  spread around the minutes and the points pretty evenly between their players, this year is really top heavy with Maley and Jenson. Last year their players lived by the mantra "Depth is our strength". That is really not true this year. 

Last season's leading scorer 6'1" Junior forward Emma Ronsiek is the only other double digit scorer on the season at 12.1 PPG. And along with 5'7" Junior guard Molly Morensen and 5'8" grad student guard Rachel Saunders, they complete the starting lineup. 

Off the bench is Carly Bachelor, a 6' senior guard/forward, who started most of the season while Saunders was out with an injury. She is the second leading rebounder on the team. 

The other two players off the bench are 5'10" junior guard Jayme Horan and 6' junior forward Mallory Brake. Horan is the three point threat of the group shooting 10-21. 

So, how does this year's version of the Bluejays match up with this years UConn team? 

On offense Creighton likes to pass the ball around the perimeter looking for an open three. They drive to the hoop, looking for the kickout for an open three as well. Players are also constantly running through the lane, screening and looking for open spaces. The Bluejays will occasionally make the pass into the lane if the cutting player is open. Against Stanford's size, Creighton took 31 three pointers or 55.4% of their shots. Look for similar numbers against UConn. 

Their other method of scoring is off the fast break and they do run well when they get the chance. Defensively I didn't see any pressing, even after a made basket. However, with the high turnover rate by the Huskies, I expect Creighton to press plenty if they can make a decent percentage of their shots. 

Creighton is strickly a man-man teams with plenty of switches. They will double in the post and they have to because of their lack of size. 

UConn has to take care of the ball in this game. If they come anywhere near 20 turnovers, it will be a battle to the end. But the Huskies have an advantage at every position, especially in the post. I would look for two double-doubles for Edwards and Juhasz. Creighton has not one to match Dorka and the size and speed combination of Edwards will give the Bluejays fits. And Griffin would have been just way too athletic for them.

UConn will look to run off any Creighton misses as I don't see the Bluejays getting many offensive boards other than those annoying long rebounds off three point misses. 

UConn is the best shooting team in the country. 52.7% from the field and 42.7% on threes. They will look to get the ball inside and kickout to their deadly three point shooters.   

Creighton can stay in the game if they turn over UConn, defend the post, hit their threes at a high rate and UConn hits a low percentage of their three pointers. Unlikely for all of that to happen.  

Prediction

Creighton is desperate. After losing 3 of 4 games, they really need a win at home. Unfortunately for them, they have to play UConn.

The Huskies, even without Fudd and Griffin, has too much talent for the Bluejays to handle. 

Still, being on the road against a really smart team, it could be a close game similar to last year's game at Creighton. The Bluejays are not shooting as well as last year, but will they finally have a hot game? Certainly possible. 

On the other hand, UConn could finally have a game where they value the ball, and if they shoot well and Creighton doesn't, it could get ugly.

Now without Griffin and a really short bench, I'm guessing UConn by 10+.     

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