Saturday, December 3, 2022

Doggy's UConn/Notre Dame Pregame Report

 



Date: Sunday 
 December 4th, 2022
South Bend,  Indiana
Purcell Pavilion
Time: 3:00
TV: ABC




No. 3 UConn Huskies                                No. 8 Notre Dame

      6-0                                                            7-1


Prior Meetings

NOTRE DAME | UCONN LEADS 39-13
H: 21-4 | A: 12-4 | N: 5-5

 01/18/96 #3 UConn 87, ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
02/24/96 #3 UConn 86, ND 79 Storrs, Conn. 
03/05/96 #2 UConn 71, ND 54 Storrs, Conn. 
02/09/97 #1 UConn 72, ND 49 Storrs, Conn. 
03/04/97 #1 UConn 86, ND77 Storrs, Conn. 
12/06/97 #3 UConn 78, ND 59 South Bend, Ind. 
02/21/98 #2 UConn 73, ND 61 Storrs, Conn. 
03/02/98 #3 UConn 73, ND 53 Piscataway, N.J. 
12/08/98 #1 UConn 106, ND 81 South Bend, Ind. 
03/02/99 #6 UConn 96, ND 75 Piscataway, N.J. 
02/26/00 #1 UConn 77, ND 59 Hartford, Conn. 
01/15/01 ND 92, #1 UConn 76 South Bend, Ind.
03/06/01 #2 UConn 78, ND 76 Storrs, Conn. 
03/30/01 ND 90, #1 UConn 75 St. Louis, Mo. 
01/21/02 #1 UConn 80, ND 53 Hartford, Conn. 
01/20/03 #2 UConn 72, ND 53 South Bend, Ind. 
02/23/03 #1 UConn 77, ND59 Storrs, Conn. 
01/13/04 ND 66, #4 UConn 51 South Bend, Ind.
01/12/05 #16 UConn 67, #7 ND 50 South Bend, Ind. 
01/30/05 #6 ND 65, #9 UConn 59 Storrs, Conn.
03/07/05 #14 UConn 67, #10 ND 54 Hartford, Conn. 
02/19/06 #8 UConn 79, ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
03/05/06 #7 UConn 71, ND 60 Hartford, Conn. 
01/27/07 #6 UConn 64, ND 47 Storrs, Conn. 
01/27/08 #1 UConn 81, #16 ND 64 South Bend, Ind. 
02/22/09 #1 UConn 76, #24 ND 66 Hartford, Conn. 
01/16/10 #1 UConn 70, #3 ND 46 Storrs, Conn. 
03/01/10 #1 UConn 76, #8 ND 51 South Bend, Ind. 
03/08/10 #1 UConn 59, #6 ND 44 Hartford, Conn. 
01/08/11 #2 UConn 79, #19 ND 76 South Bend, Ind. 
02/19/11 #2 UConn 78, #8 ND 57 Storrs, Conn. 
03/08/11 #1 UConn 73, #10 ND 64 Hartford, Conn. 
04/03/11 #10 ND 72, #1 UConn 63 Indianapolis, Ind.
01/07/12 ND 74, #2 UConn 67 (OT) South Bend, Ind.
02/27/12 #3 ND 72, #4 UConn 59 Storrs, Conn.
03/06/12 #4 UConn 63, #3 ND 54 Hartford, Conn. 
04/01/12 #4 ND 83, #3 UConn 75 (OT) Denver, Colo.
01/05/13 #5 ND 73, #1 UConn 72 Storrs, Conn.
03/04/13 #2 ND 96, #3 UConn 87 (3OT) South Bend, Ind.
03/12/13 #2 ND 62, #3 UConn 59 Hartford, Conn.
04/07/13 #3 UConn 85, #2 ND 65 New Orleans, La. 
04/08/14 #1 UConn 79, #2 ND 58 Nashville, Tenn. 
12/06/14 #3 UConn 76, #2 ND 58 South Bend, Ind. 
04/07/15 #1 UConn 63, #2 ND 53 Tampa, Fla. 
12/05/15 #1 UConn 91, #3 ND 81 Storrs, Conn. 
12/07/16 #1 UConn 72, #2 ND 61 South Bend, Ind. 
12/03/17 #1 UConn 80, #3 ND 71 Hartford, Conn. 
03/30/18 #3 ND 91, #1 UConn 89 (OT) Columbus, Ohio
12/02/18 #2 UConn 89, #1 ND 71 South Bend, Ind.
04/05/19 #3 ND 81, #2 UConn 76 Tampa, Fla. 
12/08/19 #2 UConn 81, ND 57 Storrs, Conn.
12/05/21 #2 UConn 73, #24 Notre Dame 54  Hartford, Conn.

I put the UConn wins in bold to emphasize the UConn dominance

 
*******************************************************************
Notre Dame

Notre Dame just hit a speed bump with their 74-72 loss to No. 20 Maryland, their first of the season. The Irish haven't exactly played the toughest schedule before that game. They started the season with an easy 88-48 win over Northern Illinois. They then handled PAC 12 opponent Califorrnia 90-79 in a game that was really competitive. After a 31-22 first quarter lead for the Irish, the Golden Bears actually only lost the last three quarters by 2 points.


The next three games were against easy opponents, beating Northwestern 92-58, Ball State 95-60 and American University 90-65. The next game completed the PAC 12 sandwich with a 85-65 win over Arizona State.


 
Comparative Team Statistics
(leader in bold)

                                             UConn                                       Notre Dame 

                                              89.0        PPG                            87.4
                                              61.0        Defensive PPG            64.1
                                              28.0        Scoring Margin           23.3
                                              53.8        Field Goal %               48.4
                                              36.5        Defensive FG%           36.9 
                                              42.7        Three Point %             36.5
                                              29.5        Defensive 3PT%          30.3
                                              73.5        Free Throw %             72.2
                                              40.7        Rebounds/game           46.7
                                              11.2        Rebounding Margin     14.3 
                                              22.5        Assists per game          18.3
                                              14.7        Turnover per game       16.0
                                                1.5        Assists/TO ratio             1.1
                                                9.8        Steals per game              8.4
                                                3.8        Blocks per game            5.2

You  have to consider the Realtime RPI rankings  before making much of the stats.  

UConn has an advantage in almost every category  against a tougher schedule.

Notre Dame

DateOpponentOpp. RPI RkResults
  11-07   Northern Illinois  6-1 (0-0)68 88-48 W
  11-12  at California  5-1 (0-0)135 90-79 W
  11-16  at Northwestern  4-3 (0-0)121 92-58 W
  11-20   Ball St.  4-2 (0-0)124 95-60 W
  11-24  at American  0-6 (0-0)223 90-65 W
  11-26  at Arizona St.  6-2 (0-0)79 85-65 W
  12-01   Maryland  7-2 (0-0)14 72-74 L

UCONN
DateOpponentOpp. RPI RkResults
  11-10   Northeastern  3-5 (0-0)172 98-39 W
  11-14   Texas  3-4 (0-0)63 83-76 W
  11-20   N.C. State  7-1 (0-0)5 91-69 W
  11-25   Duke  7-1 (0-0)18 78-50 W
11-27  at Iowa  5-3 (0-0)32 86-79 W
  12-02   Providence  6-3 (0-1)148 98-53

   


DateOpponentResultPFPA
Thu 11-10
Northeastern
206
(3-5)
W
9839
Mon 11-14
Texas
25
(3-3)
W
8376
Sun 11-20
NC State
4
(7-1)
W
9169
Fri 11-25
vsDuke
@ Portland, OR
23
(7-1)
W
7850
Sun 11-27
vsIowa
22
(5-3)
W
8679
Fri 12-02

Providence
114
(6-2)
W
9853
    
 UCONN 


*******************************************************************




 


Notre Dame Starters
 Game Analysis

UConn at Notre Dame. Purcell Pavilion. Gotta love it. A team I love to hate. Not as much as Tennessee, and not as much since Muffet retired, but still a great rivalry. But a rivalry has to have competitive games. And UConn beat Notre Dame the last two times they met by 19 and 24 points.   


I'm sure we all remember last year's game as the one where Paige hurt her knee. I'd rather forget about it. But there are things to learn from that game that can be applied to this year's matchup. 


Five Notre Dame players return this season with four of them making big contributions in that game. Those players scored 44 of the 54 points that ND finished with. 


UConn, on the other hand, returns four players, with three that came off the bench. They only contributed 30 of the 73 points for the Huskies. 


So what does that mean? Beats me. On to this  year's analysis. 


I watched the entire Notre Dame/Maryland game and I thought it was quite revealing. The Irish only played 7 players in that game with meaningful minutes. Same in the two other decent teams they played, California and Arizona State. Let's look at the players.


Olivia Miles, their 5'10" sophomore point guard is the floor leader for this team. She is averaging 15.7 PPG and almost 7 APG. She is also a decent rebounding guard. She is a terrific finisher around the basket and always has an eye out for a pass off her dribble. You can play off her some as she is only shooting 31% on threes. But she is streaky from deep so she could get hot. She was in quick foul trouble against Maryland. That would be the kiss of death for the Irish against the Huskies. They need her on the floor for 35+ minutes. Defensively, she is great in deflections and steals off the ball, but not so great in 1-1 coverage. Her tendency to not move her feet and use her hands to defend will give Muhl (if Miles covers her) driving and dishing opportunities.


Sonia Citron is the leading scorer for Notre Dame at 16.6 PPG. The 6'1'' sophomore guard is a tough matchup for anyone. A big guard, she is tough to defend. She also leads the team in rebounds at 8 RPG. I was prepared to say she is a good three point shooter, but her 4-5 game against Maryland makes that an understatement. However, it looks like she needs a little space to get off her long range shot. She was the leading scorer against UCoon last year with 19 points, the only player in double digit scoring. I would use the word fearless for her game. She can be a little sloppy with the ball so pressure could take her out of the game. 


The third guard in the lineup is a familiar name. So familiar, it makes me a little nauseous when I hear it. Another Mabrey, Dara, is playing her final year of eligibility this season. Mabrey,  the 5'7" fifth year senior is carrying on the legacy for her family at Notre Dame. Third in scoring on the team at 12.1 PPG, she is the volume three point shooter on the team and hitting a solid 35.3% from deep. She has the ability to stop and pop in the lane but UConn's length will bother her. She is the least talented of the Mabrey sisters and part of that is her small stature. At 5'7", it's harder for her to get open threes and she is a defensive liability. However, her leadership, like Nika, can't be understated.


At forward is 6'3" junior Maddy Westbeld, another sibling connection with her sister Kathryn playing for the Irish from 2014-2018. She is a fundamentally sound player with a decent outside shot. But too slow to get to the basket regularly. She is scoring 7.3 PPG and 5.9 RPG. Not quick afoot, she struggles to guard quicker players.


The final starter is a transfer from Oregon, 6'4" junior  forward Kaylee Watson. Averaging 9.1 PPG and 4.7 RPG, Watson is a big body under the basket. The reality is she really doesn't play that big. Not a plodder, but  she is a little slow of foot. She does have a mean face!


Notre Dame will probably only play two players off the bench.


Lauren Ebo, a 6’4” center,  is a transfer from Texas playing as a graduate student. She is what you would call a load in the paint. Hard to move, she lives off the offensive boards. She actually has more offensive than defensive rebounds on the season. A double digit scorer, she dominates the weaker teams but is too slow to get significant minutes against the better teams. Her size reminds me of Courtney Paris. But not her game. 


KK Bransford is the only freshman on the game and is improving every time out. The 5'11" guard will give the starters a blow and hit the occasional jumper. Her on the ball defense is solid for a freshman.


The Irish will play a man to man defense or  matchup zone for most of the game. Who will guard who is the question for both teams. I expect that Watson will guard Edwards and visa versa. 


Griffin and Westbeld will match up and I believe that Aubrey's quickness will be too much for Maddy.


Lou will start out covering Citron. Many fans seem to be really worried about this matchup. I'm not sure why. Citron will have to play honest defense on Lou as she can score in so many ways. And the same goes when Notre Dame has the ball. Can Lou defend Citron is a fair question. However, when Ducharme enters the game, I like her defensive ability against Citron. 


The two guard positions will be interesting to see how the coaches assign the defensive assignments.


It's easy for UConn. Geno will put the pest Nika Muhl on Miles. Miles is easily frustrated, and Muihl is just the player to do it. Fudd will defend Mabrey and all she needs to do is battle through the screens and recover after doubling the post. Notre Dame will probably reverse that with Mabrey defending Muhl and the bigger Miles on Fudd. Either way, it's a tough matchup for the Irish.                     


Final Prediction


If you had asked me two days ago about this game I would have said something different than what I believe now. The Maryland game changed my mind. 


Notre Dame is just a step slower at every position. They don't pass as well as past ND teams, and because of that they turn the ball over more. 


Can they defend UConn's three point shooting? Can Miles keep her cool with Muhl covering her tight? Do the Irish have an answer to Edwards post game? Can Notre Dame slow down the UConn fastbreak?


You know my answers to those questions. No, No, No, and No!


UConn is just the better team and as long as they overcome any Purcell jitters UConn will win this game. By how much? If UConn hits their threes it will be a double digit win. I'm looking for a cooler night on unfaniliar rims. So......


Huskies by 8.



1 comment:

  1. Absolutely correct on ND being a step slower all around than UConn.
    The Huskies lead the nation in fg % and are third in 3pt %. I don't see how ND holds UConn under 80 points, and they will most likely be in the 90's. UConn by a dozen.

    ReplyDelete