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GO UCONN!!!!!
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Well, that was disappointing. I was really looking forward to a blowout win for a change. Why didn't Butler leave before the weather that kept them grounded? The Big East should award UConn the win.
Let's look at the good news. UConn will have two full days of practice geared to playing the Lady Vols.
Here is my UConn/Tennessee Pregame Report.
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Halftime Highlight: @NHSGirlsBBall @AshlynnShade with the 4-pt play. @MillerNationAD up 19-18 over @CHS_Womensbball. Highlights coming to https://t.co/33Ugb8JEvw. @IndyStarSports @indyhsscores @Brian_Haenchen pic.twitter.com/piBDeIulz4
— Clark Wade (@ClarkWade34) February 5, 2022
Ashlynn just about killed that teammate with her chest bump
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GAMES
MOST SCORES HAVE CLICKABLE LINKS TO A GAME STORY
UPSETS IN RED
No. 9 Baylor 75 No. 13 Texas 63
No. 8 Arizona No. 19 Oregon - Late Game
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Straight from the Dog
Big game in the Big 12 Friday night between No. 13 Texas and No. 9 Baylor. It has major implications in the polls but more importantly, in the seeding.
Baylor won this game 75-63 so what does it mean?
Texas was a 2 seed, ranked 7th in the initial seeding reveal. Since then they are 0-2. How can they still be a 2 seed? Well, a loss to a highly ranked team doesn't hurt that much. But geeze, two loses?
If it looks like a 3 seed, smells like a 3 seed and plays like a 3 seed. They are a 3 seed.
Does Baylor move up? Nope. They lost since the reveal as well.
If UConn beats Tennessee Sunday, between Texas and the Lady Vols losing two games, I don't see how the Huskies don't move into a 2 seed spot.
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ESPN has an article I linked about the UConn/Tennessee game. Charlie SECreme and Michelle "I hate Geno" Vopel co-wrote it. You can guess what they said. Charlie is picking Tennessee of course and Vopel grudglingly giving the momentum to UConn after Tennessee's embarrassing loss to Florida.
The article says Tennessee is the favorite. Massey has UConn as a 6+ point winner. I like that better.
The home court advantage just got better. Anyone with a Butler ticket can turn it in for upper section seats for the Tennessee game. We knew it wasn't a sellout. I figured 12,000. If they had a full house at Gample for the Butler game, and half of those go to the Tennssee game that meand a full house. Tennessee has never experienced that against the Huskies.
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Talk about being beat up. Take a gander at Tennesssee's coach Kellie Harper in her post game interview after losing by 25 to Florida. It's not a pretty sight.
You watch this and you wonder about her ability to straighten out the mess the Lady Vols have become.
Here is the day after, Coach Harper talking about the upcoming UConn game. She has it more together and had a lot of good things to say about UConn.
Ya know, I really like Kellie Jolly Harper. She is cute, funny and I just love a southern accent.
But she is in over her head.
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Tennessee record?
Tennessee has never before in history lost by 25 points or more to an unranked team.
Alabama may have been the closest in 2019, when they were unranked and beat Tennessee 86 – 65 for a 21 point win.
I did check all of history, but ranking started in 1976-77, so for games prior to that, I don't know the ranking of either opponent. However, in the years prior to the beginning of rankings, there was only one loss by 25 points or more.
In 1904, Tennessee lost to Maryville 29 – 0.
Some of the Tennessee fans were arguing that the loss to Auburn who were winless in the SEC at the time, constituted the worst boss in Tennessee history. There may be a new challenger for that crown. Clearly, Florida is better than Auburn, but factor in the size of the loss and it's a tough call.
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Minimum Watch
The NCAA set a rule the team needs to play 25 games "to make the Big Dance".
If your team doesn't complete 25 games, they can still apply for a waiver:
“But there is an individual institution waiver process,” Gavitt told CBS Sports. “So if a team [with a] situation out of its control can’t reach that number of 25 games, there’s a waiver process in place that the committees can review and grant an exception waiver for championship eligibility.”
We are in uncharted territory, so we have no historical information to help us understand what may qualify for a waiver, and I'm not aware that the NCAA has articulated any specific rules.
The omicron related cancellations appear to be over, but in light of the loss of the Butler game (subject to potential rescheduling), it may be worth looking at what teams are concerned about meeting the minimums. Even without the Butler game Connecticut has 18 games under its belt and eight more scheduled, so should meet the 25 game minimum with a game to spare.
I put together a list of teams worth watching. The first number is the number of games played to date, the second number is the remaining number of games on the schedule, and the third is the total, the number of games they will have at the end of the season if they play all their scheduled games.
Connecticut 18 8 26
Arizona 18 8 26
Indiana 18 7 25
Utah 18 8 26
Oregon State 16 8 24
UCF 18 7 25
UCLA 16 7 23
Kentucky 18 8 26
Arizona State 17 8 25
Washington 14 8 22
Wright State 18 8 22
Roughly the first half of this list are teams that are likely to make the tournament on their merits, while the second half includes teams that are unlikely to get an at-large bid and may need to count on winning the conference tournament. While it might seem obvious that even teams in danger meeting the minimum during the regular season will get additional opportunities in the conference tournament, the NCAA has stated:
"The waiver window is Feb. 14-25."
Source
That window ends before conference tournament start, which suggests that conference tournament games don't count toward the minimum.
I don't pretend that my list is complete — for example Delaware State only has 12 games and is highly likely to get to 25 by the end of regular season but they haven't won a game so I think qualifying for the tournament is moot.
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The last NCAA selection committee revealed was on 27 January. Doggydaddy recently posted the records of those teams after the reveal. I thought I would do a deep dive into some of the teams.
I’ll start by examining who might be added or removed from the list of the top 16. While I could look at movements in the AP or coaches poll for guidance, I think the Massey ratings generally do a better job of prediction. That said, the first team I am going to examine may be an example of a team where the Massey ratings don’t do a great job.
Maryland wasn’t on the first reveal list. They were just outside the top 16 in the AP poll, at number 17. I don’t know where they were ranked in Massey on that date, but they are number 16 in the Massey ranking today, so would just barely qualify. They are an interesting team for several reasons, one of which is that they are a team the UConn fan community seems to love to hate.
Maryland was 13 – 6 on the day of the first reveal, and have subsequently won 3 games, against Rutgers, Penn State and Michigan State. None of these games were particularly notable; in each case their margin of victory was reasonably close to their expected margin of victory. If they didn’t make the list on 27 January, none of those victories is clear evidence they should move on to the list (with the obvious exception that one can move on to the list if teams above them deserve to fall back.)
Maryland has a history of playing cupcakes, but giving credit where credit is due, they did have games against Massey’s number one, number two and number three teams.
The current strength of schedule is ranked number 12 which is a substantial improvement from last year’s number 35.
Close losses to very good teams can play a small part of an overall resume, but the best resume builders are wins over good teams. Let’s make a list of all the teams likely to be NCAA at-large teams over which Maryland has a win:
• Baylor
That’s it.
I’ve seen years where a team with a single win over a potential at-large team means they are on the bubble for invitation and often times not going to make it. We are not talking about an invitation, we are talking about whether they are a top 16 team. I haven’t checked, but I’ll be surprised if any of the potential top 16 teams have as few as one win over a likely at-large team.
However, there is a lot of good news for Maryland.
They have six games left on their schedule, and if you were asked to design the ideal schedule to earn a top seed, you’d be hard-pressed to do better than Maryland’s remaining six games.
Only one game is a cupcake, that against Wisconsin. You can pencil that in as a win.
The other five games are all top 25, and with one exception, close to the bottom of the top 25. The ideal schedule has strong teams but not so strong that you’re going to lose.
The toughest challenge will be at Michigan, who seems to be a hot team right now, but it is not inconceivable that they would win four of the five. They are a three point underdog at Iowa, but favored in four of the games. If they win five of six and play Michigan close, they might make the cut for the top 16. Anything less than that, and they’ll still earn a bid to the tournament but not be playing at home. The ball is literally in their court.
I’ll start by examining who might be added or removed from the list of the top 16. While I could look at movements in the AP or coaches poll for guidance, I think the Massey ratings generally do a better job of prediction. That said, the first team I am going to examine may be an example of a team where the Massey ratings don’t do a great job.
Maryland
Maryland was 13 – 6 on the day of the first reveal, and have subsequently won 3 games, against Rutgers, Penn State and Michigan State. None of these games were particularly notable; in each case their margin of victory was reasonably close to their expected margin of victory. If they didn’t make the list on 27 January, none of those victories is clear evidence they should move on to the list (with the obvious exception that one can move on to the list if teams above them deserve to fall back.)
Maryland has a history of playing cupcakes, but giving credit where credit is due, they did have games against Massey’s number one, number two and number three teams.
The current strength of schedule is ranked number 12 which is a substantial improvement from last year’s number 35.
Close losses to very good teams can play a small part of an overall resume, but the best resume builders are wins over good teams. Let’s make a list of all the teams likely to be NCAA at-large teams over which Maryland has a win:
• Baylor
That’s it.
I’ve seen years where a team with a single win over a potential at-large team means they are on the bubble for invitation and often times not going to make it. We are not talking about an invitation, we are talking about whether they are a top 16 team. I haven’t checked, but I’ll be surprised if any of the potential top 16 teams have as few as one win over a likely at-large team.
However, there is a lot of good news for Maryland.
They have six games left on their schedule, and if you were asked to design the ideal schedule to earn a top seed, you’d be hard-pressed to do better than Maryland’s remaining six games.
Only one game is a cupcake, that against Wisconsin. You can pencil that in as a win.
The other five games are all top 25, and with one exception, close to the bottom of the top 25. The ideal schedule has strong teams but not so strong that you’re going to lose.
The toughest challenge will be at Michigan, who seems to be a hot team right now, but it is not inconceivable that they would win four of the five. They are a three point underdog at Iowa, but favored in four of the games. If they win five of six and play Michigan close, they might make the cut for the top 16. Anything less than that, and they’ll still earn a bid to the tournament but not be playing at home. The ball is literally in their court.
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By David in Naples
UConn has managed to play 18 games so far this season. Three additional games have been "postponed" and one canceled outright. In addition, various players have missed more games due to injury or illness.
Consider:
1. Paige has missed 12 of the team's 18 games.
2. Azzi Fudd has not dressed for 11 games.
3. Nika missed 3 games due to injury.
4. Christyn was ill for 3 games and sat out.
5. Dorka has missed the last two games with a foot injury.
6. Caroline dressed for every game, but did not play in 1.
Clearly, illness and injury has hurt the Huskies starting lineup. From Paige to Dorka, a total of 30 games have been missed. Hard to get chemistry right with a revolving door in the starting lineup.
Interestingly, Olivia is the only player to dress and start all 18 games. Both Evina and Aaliyah have played in all 18 games, but not started every one.
Go Huskies..!!
1. Paige has missed 12 of the team's 18 games.
2. Azzi Fudd has not dressed for 11 games.
3. Nika missed 3 games due to injury.
4. Christyn was ill for 3 games and sat out.
5. Dorka has missed the last two games with a foot injury.
6. Caroline dressed for every game, but did not play in 1.
Clearly, illness and injury has hurt the Huskies starting lineup. From Paige to Dorka, a total of 30 games have been missed. Hard to get chemistry right with a revolving door in the starting lineup.
Interestingly, Olivia is the only player to dress and start all 18 games. Both Evina and Aaliyah have played in all 18 games, but not started every one.
Go Huskies..!!
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