Friday, February 4, 2022

Doggy's UConn/Tenneessee Pre Game Report

 







VS






No. 10 UConn Huskies                         No. 7 Tennessee Lady Vols
                  14-4 (9-0)                                                  19-3 (8-2)


Sunday
 February 6th, 2022

XL Center
Hartford, Ct
 12:00 P.M.
FOX

Prior Meetings

 UCONN LEADS 15-9

Home: 5-4
 Away: 5-3
 Neutral: 5-2

01/16/95 #2 UConn 77, #1 UT 66 Storrs, Conn.
04/02/95 #1 UConn 70, #3 UT 64 Minneapolis, Minn.
01/06/96 #2 UConn 59, #4 UT 53 Knoxville, Tenn.
03/29/96 #4 UT 88, #2 UConn 83 (OT) Charlotte, N.C.
01/05/97 #1 UConn 72, #8 UT 57 Hartford, Conn.
03/24/97 #10 UT 91, #1 UConn 81 Iowa City, Iowa
01/03/98 #1 UT 84, #3 UConn 69 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/10/99 #2 UT 92, #1 UConn 81 Storrs, Conn.
01/08/00 #1 UConn 74, #2 UT 67 Knoxville, Tenn.
02/02/00 #4 UT 72, #1 UConn 71 Storrs, Conn.
04/02/00 #1 UConn 71, #2 UT 52 Philadelphia, Pa.
12/30/00 #1 UConn 81, #2 UT 76 Hartford, Conn.
02/01/01 #3 UT 92, #2 UConn 88 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/05/02 #1 UConn 86, #2 UT 72 Knoxville, Tenn.
03/29/02 #1 UConn 79, #6 UT 56 San Antonio, Texas
01/04/03 #3 UConn 63, #5 UT 62 (OT) Hartford, Conn.
04/08/03 #1 UConn 73, #5 UT 68 Atlanta, Ga.
02/05/04 #4 UConn 81, #1 UT 67 Knoxville, Tenn.
04/06/04 #6 UConn 70, #2 UT 61 New Orleans, La.
01/08/05 #10 UT 68, #15 UConn 67 Hartford, Conn.
01/07/06 #1 UT 89, #7 UConn 80 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/06/07 #4 UT 70, #5 UConn 64 Hartford, Conn.
1/23/20 #3 UConn 60 #23 Tennessee 45 Storrs, Conn.
1/29/21 #3 UConn 67 #25 Tennessee 61 Knoxville, Tenn.

Here is my write up and some videos from last years game


Wow, what a tense game. UConn/Tennessee old school!

I admit, I really can't watch the game live. I have to watch it after the fact. I get way too nervous. But after reviewing the game, it was an easy analysis.

Despite having an off shooting night UConn won 67-61 on the road. That is the bottom line.

UConn shot 25-61 from the floor (41%) and just 7-25 (28%) from three. The Huskies also had a miserable night at the foul line, hitting just 10-21.

Geno must have been really concerned with Tennessee's size because they shot the ball early and often in the first quarter with its first four shots and 10 of its first 15 coming from beyond the arc. And many of those were from Nelson-Ododa and Griffin. Crazy. Taking those shots is ok as long as you make them. They only made two. They didn't even score for the first 2 1/2 minutes until a Nelson-Ododa layup.

The Huskies also struggled to keep Tennessee off the offensive glass. In the first quarter alone, the Vols grabbed seven offensive boards which resulted in seven second-chance points. Because of that Tennessee was able to take a one point lead after the first quarter after Williams hit a jumper with 3 seconds left in the quarter to make it 17-16.

UConn make more of an effort to get the ball inside only taking two three-pointers in the second quarter. That sparked an 8-0 run from the Huskies which put them ahead by five, their largest lead of the game to that point. Tennessee snapped the run with a three and UConn’s offense went cold. The Huskies scored just six points over the next four and a half minutes as the Lady Vols to took the lead.

The two teams went into the locker room at halftime with Tennessee up 35-34. It was the first time UConn had trailed at the half this season.

Griffin scored four of the Huskies’ first six points of the third quarter but picked up her third and fourth fouls in quick succession, which sent her to the bench. Williams scored UConn’s final eight points of the quarter. UConn was only down one point 45-44 before backup point guard Walker hit a big three pointer and then hit one of two free throws for a 5 point lead for Tennessee. I turned away at this point..lol. Williams hit a free throw but the Huskies still went into the final 10 minutes trailing by four.

UConn’s defense stepped up in the fourth, holding Tennessee to just one basket in the first five minutes. The Huskies threes also started to fall with four of their seven makes coming in the final quarter. Westbrook hit two of those and boy were those huge. That must have felt good doing that against her former team. A 9-0 run gave UConn the lead for good with 4:46 left and looked poised to pull away before Paige Bueckers twisted her ankle. This really gave Tennessee to get back into the game as the Huskies could not find a good shot. After getting her ankle taped underneath the bleachers, the freshman returned with 1:16 left. Tennessee cut UConn’s lead to two with 55 seconds left.

On the next possession with the shot clock winding down, Evina Westbrook found an open Bueckers, who buried a 3-pointer as the shot clock expired to put UConn ahead by five. The Vols didn’t score again as the Huskies came away with a six-point victory on the road.

Game Highlights


Full Game Replay

     Team Overviews

Tennessee is coming into this game with big problems. They dodged a bullet in their OT win against Arkansas, but were easily handled by SEC last place team Auburn and then were slapped around in a 25 point loss to mid-conference team Florida. None of these three teams were ranked and Tennessee not only lost but looked really bad while doing it. 

On the season, it doesn't look too bad. Tennessee fans will be happy to point out they are 18-3. Yep. A really nice record. But it's how you play that matters, and Tennesssee is in a really bad place.

UConn is coming in off a great second half comeback against Creighton, a sluggish game before that against Providence and a tough 2 point win on the road against DePaul. They were hoping to obliterate the last place team Butler on Friday night but the game was cancelled because Butler couldn't travel to Connecticut.  Instead they will have an additional practice that will help them prepare specifically for Tennessee.

The teams couldn't be in more different mindsets coming into this game. But as we know, UConn-Tennessee games mean throw out most of that out the window.        
 
        Comparative Team Statistics

                                                     UConn                                       Tennessee

                                              71.4              PPG                       71.1
                                              59.0        Defensive PPG             57.9
                                              12.4        Scoring Margin            13.2
                                              47.1        Field Goal %                42.0
                                              37.2        Defensive FG%            32.5 
                                              30.1        Three Point %              30.4
                                              28.2        Defensive 3PT%           25.9
                                              66.4        Free Throw %              63.2
                                              38.9        Rebounds/game            49.9
                                               6.1         Rebounding Margin     15.3 
                                              17.9        Assists per game           14.6
                                              15.1        Turnover per game       17.6
                                                1.2        Assists/TO ratio             .8
                                                8.8        Steals per game             6.8
                                                4.6        Blocks per game            6.1  

   
*******************************************************************

Tennessee Lady Vols




Kellie Harper
   Tennessee Starters

Rae Burrell




Tennessee Bench 







 Game Analysis
     

Well, here we go! For many fans of both teams, winning this game is as good as it gets. Lots of history and now the second game of the revival is here. 

Let me start this analysis with a player match up exercise.

Point Guard

5'10" Sophomore Nika Muhl 
vs 
5'8" Grad Student Jordan Walker

This is going to be an interesting matchup. Muhl will try to disrupt Walker as she and Horston initiate the Tennessee offense. Walker is really good at driving and drawing fouls a weakness in Muhls defensive game. I haven't been impressed with Walker's defense. Muhl's offense is just as unimpressive. I think they pretty much cancel each other out.   

Advantage EVEN    

Shooting Guard

5'11 Senior Christyn Williams
 vs 
6'2" Junior Jordon Horston 

Williams is playing maybe the best basketball of her career even with the Covid interuption. She has been hitting her three pointers and driving hard to the basket. That might be harder with Tennessee's rim protector, but she will get some steals that lead directly to scores. Horston is an enigma. She really does have some great skills. She is tall for a guard, has a decent handle and can finish around the basket. But I believe that she is weak mentally and always tries to do it on her own. I can't tell you how many times I see her dribble down the court and I just know she won't pass the ball. And she doesn't. 84 turnovers is just unacceptable.   

Advantage UConn 

Wing

 6'2"Freshman Caroline Ducharme 
vs 
6'2" Senior Rae Burrell

You would thiknk that someone with the preseason chops of Burrell would give Tennessee the advantage. However, Burrell is not the same Burrell as last season. Since coming back form a bad knee injury, she just doesn't seem to play the same way. She is playing more like the Freshman Burrell. Out of control. And maybe playing for herself to get a better WNBA draft position? Or is she still not fully recovered? 

Ducharme came in as the "other" freshman. But wow, what an impact she has had on UConn. At this point in time, she is the better player.   

Slight Advantage UConn
Forward

 6'5" Grad Student Dorka Juhasz  
vs  
6' Grad Student Alexa Dye 

One came of Big Ten team Ohio State. The other came from Liberty. One is getting better every game, the other is struggling with the physical play in the SEC. 

Advantage UConn     

Center

6'5" Senior Olivia Nelson-Ododa 
vs 
6'7" Junior Tamari Key

This is another interesting match up. ONO has had terrific season for sure and Key is playing at a higher level than last season. Defense is the mainstay for both of these players. Both are terrific shot blockers and shot alterers. 

Foul trouble could come into play and I am concerned that Nelson-Ododa could have that happen defending  the bigger player. 

ONO has had several dominating games while recently Key has not. And right now, with the loss of Keyen Green as her backup, she has to play more minutes and seems to be fatigueing. Key also looks to be more tentative as she can't afford to get into foul trouble.  

Advantage UConn  

Bench

6' Senior Guard Evina Westbrook
6'3" Sophomore Forward Aliyah Edwards 
5'11" Freshman Guard Azzi Fudd
vs
6'1' Sophomore Guard/Forward Tess Darby
6'2" Freshmand Forward Sara Puckett
5'4" Freshman Guard Brooklynn Miles   
6'5" Junior Center Emily Saunders

This is not even close. If you had to rank the players on the bench, UConn would have the top 3 and Tennessee would be the bottom four.



Advantage UConn       

Coach

Do I really have to do a comparison here? The best coach over the last 25 years vs a coach in her first season at her Alma Mater. 

Geno has been the standard for a long time now. With 11 national championships and after passing Pat he has 1099 wins and better than .885 winning percentage, he is without peer at this time. He continues to recruit at the highest level.

Kellie Jolly Harper is a terrific young coach that is building a very nice resume. She has coached at Western Carolina, NC State, Missouri State and now Tennessee. Her 2020 class was not that great, but her 2021 class is better. 

Even with one more year of experience, Harper continues to make mistakes in time outs and substitutions. And mistakes in this game will be consequential. 

It's really not close.       

Advantage UConn

Intangibles

It could be over 12,000 fans at the XL Center. They will make a difference. 

Advantage UConn


My take is that UConn has the advahntage in almost every position. Some are closer than others and maybe I could have called one or two as even. But with the team closer fo full strength, the Huskies are just better.  

Tennessee still doesn't seem to run much of an offense. They love to rebound and then run, but it always seems forced. So much 1-1 play. Especially Horston and Burrell. A lot of standing around. Spacing is better but still pretty awful. 

What they do well is defend the rim.  Key is just a great shot blocker and could make a difference. But time after time, when I watch Tenensee games, teams get plenty of open looks. I expect UConn to hit a fair percentage of them  

This will be an intense game from beginning to end and like last years game, the outcome could depend on which team handles the situation better. No matter how many times Geno downplays the game, everyone knows, including the players, that this is still a big game. Bigger this time because better seeding is on line.  

Final Prediction

I think the big difference is where both teams are mentaly. They are going in opposite directions. 

Geno and Chris will watch the Florida/Tennessee game and gameplan based on the Gators' successful distruction of the Lady Vols. I don't think it will be that big a hammering, but UConn will pull away late for the win. 

UConn by 8+.  

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