Sunday, January 22, 2023

Doggy's UConn/DePaul Pregame Report



  UConn Huskies                                         DePaul Blue Demons
17-2 (9-0)                                                           11-9 (4-5) 

 Monday, January 23rd 2023
Time: 7:00 PM
 Gampel Pavilion
Storrs, Ct.
TV: SNY 

Prior Meetings

DEPAUL | UCONN LEADS 21-1 
H: 8-0 | A: 9-0 | N: 4-1 

12/28/83 DePaul 70, UConn 64 Coral Gables, Fla. 
01/28/06 #5 UConn 84, #12 DePaul 75 Chicago, Ill. 
03/06/06 #8 UConn 69, #15 DePaul 57 Hartford, Conn. 
01/24/07 #7 UConn 88, DePaul 76 Storrs, Conn. 
03/01/08 #1 UConn 77, DePaul 76 Chicago, Ill. 
03/09/08 #1 UConn 86, DePaul 67 Hartford, Conn. 
01/13/09 #1 UConn 77, DePaul 62 Storrs, Conn. 
02/10/10 #1 UConn 95, DePaul 62 Chicago, Ill. 
02/05/11 #2 UConn 89, #9 DePaul 66 Storrs, Conn. 
01/21/12 #3 UConn 88, #21 DePaul 44 Chicago, Ill. 
02/10/13 #3 UConn 91, DePaul 44 Storrs, Conn. 
03/10/13 #3 UConn 94, DePaul 61 Hartford, Conn. 
12/19/14 #2 UConn 98, #29 DePaul 64 Bridgeport, Conn. 
12/02/15 #1 UConn 86, #18 DePaul 70 Chicago, Ill. 
12/01/16 #2 UConn 91, #15 DePaul 46 Storrs, Conn. 
12/08/17 #1 UConn 103, DePaul 69 Chicago, Ill. 
11/28/18 #2 UConn 99, #16 DePaul 63 Hartford, Conn. 
12/16/19 #2 UConn 84, #16 DePaul 74 Chicago, Ill. 
12/29/20 #4 UConn 75, #18 DePaul 52 Storrs, Conn. 
01/31/21 #3 UConn 100, #17 DePaul 62 Chicago, Ill.
01/26/22 #10 UConn 80, DePaul 78 Chicago, Ill. 
02/11/22 #8 UConn 84, DePaul 60 Storrs, Conn.

DePaul Season to Date

Comparing scores is not always a wise thing to come up with a prediction, but it's still worth noting.

Maryland - UConn lost 84-78, DePaul won 76-67
Marquette - UConn won 78-41, DePaul lost  72-63
Butler - UConn won 80-47, DePaul won 78-72
Creighton  - UConn won 72-47, DePaul lost 92-82
Georgetown - UConn won 65-50, DePaul lost 87-73
St. John's - UConn won 82-52, DePaul lost 81-72 

Going by this, UConn has a huge advantage. 

They were supposed to meet on January 8th, but since then DePaul has really struggled going 1-3.

DePaul lost to Villanova 71-64 in one of their better efforts, beat Xavier 91-56, and then lost their last two games, first to Georgetown 87-73 and then to St. John's 81-72

    Comparative Team Statistics
(leader in bold)

                                                    UConn                                     DePaul

                                              81.0        PPG                            77.5
                                              58.8        Defensive PPG            70.9
                                              22.2        Scoring Margin             6.6
                                              52.2        Field Goal %               42.1
                                              35.1        Defensive FG%           42.0 
                                              40.4        Three Point %             31.7
                                              28.4        Defensive 3PT%          31.9
                                              74.8        Free Throw %             67.8
                                              41.5        Rebounds/game           41.9
                                              12.8        Rebounding Margin       4.8 
                                              20.9        Assists per game          16.3
                                              16.6        Turnover per game       14.3
                                                1.3        Assists/TO ratio             1.1
                                                6.9        Steals per game             9.0
                                                4.3        Blocks per game            3.1


 UCONN 

*******************************************************************

DEPAUL


DePaul Starters



 Game Analysis

It seems like I write the same analysis every time for this match up.  "DePaul does what they usually do in scoring a lot of points averaging almost 90 points per game, shooting amd making a lot of three point shots......." 

This season it is just not the same DePaul team. Scoring only 77.5 PPG and shooting only 41.2% from the field and  31.7% on threes, this team outside of their wonderful center Aneesah Morrow and sophomore guard Darione Rogers struggles to score. 

But the lack of defense by the Blue Demons holds true again this season. I'm sure Coach Bruno realizes his teams only chance to make a game of it is to make a lot of threes. DePaul  takes a lot of threes, averaging 25 takes per game. And as I said this season they are hitting at a weak 31.7%. 

Usually DePaul is one of the best passing teams in the country. They always average 20+ assists per game. But this season is different only averaging 16.3 APG.  Coach Bruno is an excellent offensive coach and his players usually do a great job valuing the ball.  This season they have turned the ball over 14.3 times per game. Certainly better than UConn. But the Assist/Turnover ratio is weaker than usual.

This team really misses both Sonya Morris and Lexi Held to take a lot of three point shots. They both averaged around 5 taken per game. That being said, every player on the court for DePaul will fire away.

The question for DePaul is twofold. Can they hit their three point shots at a high percentage against UConn? Can they find a way to play enough defense to keep UConn under 80? It's the same question I asked the last four years and DePaul failed in both aspects. 

Sophomore phenom 6'1" Aneesha Morrow is the star of the team and a candidate for Player of the Year in the Big East  AND the entire country.  She brings needed rebounding and paint scoring for the Blue Demons. Her stats are amazing. She is averaging 25.2 PPG and 11.9 RPG. She has had double digit rebounding against all comers. No reason to think that won't happen against UConn. Last season she had 30 points and 14 rebounds in their heartbreaking loss to the Huskies 80-78. And 20 points and 16 rebounds in their second matchup an easy 84-60 win for UConn. I was surprised to see how low her shooting percentages are. 42% from the field, 22% on threes and 61% from the FT line. However, she averages 24 shots per game. I'd have to say she really is a volume shooter. She will get hers.         

Darione Rogers, a 5'11" junior guard, is the second leading scorer at 18.5 PPG and by far, takes the second most shot each game at 15 per game. One of their better three point shooters, she hits them at 35%. She also does most of the ball handling handing out 5 assists per game but turns the ball over 4 times per game. 

The only other double digit scorer, with 10.2 PPG, is Kendall Holmes, a 5'11" junior guard. By far the best three point shooter on the team, she hits them at a very good 42.7%.        

DePaul is able to create turnovers against most teams, and UConn can't afford to be sloppy with the ball. It could be a problem with only one day off between games. UConn has srtuggled with turnovers, so it could be an issue.  DePaul will press to try to disrupt the UConn offense. 

It almost goes with saying but UConn's defense will have to work hard in preventing open threes even if they aren't shooting as well as years past.. DePaul seems to find that open player with the extra pass.   UConn is the best at closing in on the open shooter with their amazing switching defense and their advantage with their length. However, it's certain that DePaul will get some open looks. If they hit them at a high rate, DePaul can certainly make it tough on the Huskies but I don't see how they can slow down the UConn offense. 

UConn usually likes a fast pace, so it will be interesting to see if they still want to do that with a team that scores so quickly like DePaul and with UConn only going 7-8 deep. However, DePaul is short handed as well with maybe only 6 players in the rotation.

 The Huskies have a size advantage and they will run off DePaul misses and I expect there to be enough of those to allow UConn so score plenty of points. And with the size advantage of  both Edwards and Juhasz, the Huskies will look to score plenty inside.    
 
Final Prediction

After a loss in their first meeting ever in 1983, UConn has won the last 21 games in a rivalry that started in 2006. In their first 4 meeting since 2006 UConn won by an average of 8 PPG with one really close game won in the last second by the Huskies. Since then UConn has won the last 16 games by an average of 30 PPG. They did have a close game in the first matchup last year.

DePaul has had their share of injuries this season. The latest is starter Jorie Allen. Coach Bruno said he was going to make a change anyway so freshman Maeve McErlane was going to move into the starting roation with or without the injury to Allen. Not sure if Allen will be back but DePaul will probably only go 6 deep.
  
Even without Fudd and Ducharme, UConn has too much firepower for DePaul to handle. 

UConn by 15+

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