Saturday, January 28, 2023

Doggy's UConn/Villanova Pregame Report

                                                                 

        No. 5 UConn Huskies           VS         No. 21 Villanova Wildcats
                  19-2 (11-0)                                               18-3 (9-1)


Sunday, January 29th, 2:00
XL Center, Hartford CT
TV - CBSSN 

VILLANOVA | UCONN LEADS 39-18 
H: 18-7 | A: 17-8 | N: 4-3 

01/22/00 #1 UConn 79, VU 46 Villanova, Pa. 
02/04/01 #2 UConn 75, #24 VU 39 Storrs, Conn. 
02/18/01 #3 UConn 61, #25 VU 43 Villanova, Pa. 
01/19/02 #1 UConn 93, VU 60 Villanova, Pa. 
03/04/02 #1 UConn 83, VU 39 Piscataway, N.J. 
01/29/03 #2 UConn 58, #20 VU 38 Storrs, Conn. 
03/11/03 #18 VU 52, #1 UConn 48 Piscataway, N.J. 
02/28/04 VU 59, #1 UConn 56 Villanova, Pa. 
01/15/05 #16 UConn 73, VU 57 Storrs, Conn. 
12/08/05 #8 UConn 72, VU 56 Villanova, Pa
02/24/07 #3 UConn 92, VU 49 Hartford, Conn. 
01/03/08 #1 UConn 88, VU 38 Villanova, Pa. 
02/24/09 #1 UConn 74, VU 47 Storrs, Conn. 0
3/09/09 #1 UConn 72, VU 42 Hartford, Conn. 
01/23/10 #1 UConn 74, VU 35 Villanova, Pa. 
01/05/11 #2 UConn 81, VU 35 Storrs, Conn. 
01/14/12 #3 UConn 72, VU 49 Villanova, Pa. 
01/29/13 #3 UConn 76, VU 43 Hartford, Conn. 
12/22/20 #3 UConn 90, VU 52 Villanova, Pa. 
03/07/21 #1 UConn 84, VU 39 Uncasville, Conn.
02/09/22 VU 72, #8 UConn 69 Hartford, Conn. 
03/07/22 #6 UConn 70, VU 40 Uncasville, Conn.

    Villanova Overview

Villanova has proven they are the second best team in the Big East so far this season. Their only three losses were to then No. 21 Baylor 75-70, then No. 13 Creighton 67-46, and then no. 14 Iowa State 74-62. And they were the only games against ranked players. That should tell you something.

They did win a rematch with Creighton in their last outing 73-57, but Crieghton isn't ranked anymore and has slid down in the BE standings behind both Villanova and St. John's.

They have beatend everyone else in the Big East, but the margin of victory tells a sttory. 

They beat Marquette 54-52, Georgetown 71-64, Butler 68-58, DePaul 71-64, and St. John's 64-61.  It shows that the WIldcats can win the close games but are in close games against teams UConn beat by large margins. 

        Comparative Team Statistics

Leader in Bold

                                                     UConn                                       Villanova

                                              81.8              PPG                       70.6
                                              58.8        Defensive PPG             57.5
                                              23.0        Scoring Margin            13.1
                                              52.5        Field Goal %                44.1
                                              34.8        Defensive FG%            37.3 
                                              40.5        Three Point %              35.3
                                              28.1        Defensive 3PT%           36,4
                                              75.2        Free Throw %              76.8
                                              41.8        Rebounds/game            36.4
                                              12.4         Rebounding Margin      2.1 
                                              21.2        Assists per game           16.2
                                              16.7        Turnover per game       10.5
                                                1.3        Assists/TO ratio             1.5
                                                7.2        Steals per game             6.5
                                                4.2        Blocks per game            5.4  

   
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Villanova Wildcats


   Villanova Starters
Villanova Bench 





 Game Analysis

It's 1 vs 2 for the lead in the Big East standing and run to the regular season championship. 

Last season Villanova upset the Huskies on UConn's home court 72-69 and then UConn just hammered the Wildcats in the BE tournament final 70-40. So, do those two games relate to the game on Sunday? Maybe?

You can bet that UConn is remembering that upset and they certainly did get revenge the second time they met. They won't be taking the Wildcats lightly. 

Last year, Lior Garzon was 5-10 on threes and scored 19 points in the upset win for Nova. But she transfered out and third leading scorer on the team Brianna Herlify graduated.

Of course, returning Big East POY 6'2" senior Maddy Siegrist leads the way for Villanova and is the leading candidate to repeat. She is leading the team in scoring at 28.5 PPG and rebounds at 9.6 RPG. She is shooting at 53% and hitting her three pointers at a 40.5% clip.  All better numbers than she had last season. 

Returning starter 5'9" sophomore guard Lucy Olsen is second leading scorer for Nova at 12.3 PPG. She also leads the team in assists at 4 per game.    She also leads the team in three point shooting percentage at 43.8%. A great number. I really like her game. She is fiesty like Nika. It will be fun when they face each other.

The third returning starter is Maddie Burke, a 6' junior guard. She averages 8.2 PPG and has taken the most three point shots on the team at around 6 per game. And she shoots them really well at 42.7%. She doesn't get to the FT line much but she is 9-9 for the season.

Christina Dalce is the only other size on the ream besides Siegrist at 6'2. The sophomore forward is a terrific shot blocker and averages over 2 per game in only 22 minutes per game. She won't add much scoring in this game or any game for that matter. She only averages 6.6 PPG and shoots a low persentage at 35.7. 

The final starter is Brooke Mullen, a 5'11" senior guard. She is a terrible shooter, only 24.2% from the field and 19.4% on ther 62 threes she has taken. She does have 82 assists and only 34 turnovers.

It looks like Villanova only goes 7 deep recently. Bella Runyan, a 5'11" junior guard, and Kaitlyn Orihel, a 5'10" sohpmore guard, round out the rotation. 

One thing Nova does is take care of the ball. They have a 1.5 assist to turnover ratio.  

UConn had a great game against Tennessee and will look to carry that forward to this match up. The Huskies will start their same five players and rotate in Patterson to give the starters a rest. It will be interesting to see how they guard Siegrist. If they can slow her down as they have done in the past, UConn should win easliy.My guess is they use a combination of Griffin and Edwards, but don't be surprised of Juhasz gets some time covering her as well.       
    
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Final Prediction

Will this game be like the first match up last year where Nova won in an upset? Or more like the second match up in the BE Championship game?

UConn is playing their best basketball of the year and is a really tough matchuip for the Wildcats. Nova has little size to match up with AA candidate Edwards and UConn big Juhasz. And Griffin is way too athletic for any Villanova player. In this game size matters, and UConn goes 6'5", 6'3", 6'1, 6'1 and 5'10" with 6'2 off the bench. Villanova goes 6'2", 6'2", 6', 5'11 and 5'9 with 5'11" and 5'10" off the bench. It could be a huge rebounding margin for the Huskies. 

I look for Nika to control the game and find players with position in the post and that Lou will have another big game. I don't believe the Wildcats are as good as last year although their record says they are.

UConn won't hold them to 40 points, but maybe around 55. And the Huskies will be able to get to 75.

Based on that UConn by 20+

GO HUSKIES!!   

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