VS
No. 5 UConn Huskies Unranked Tenn Lady Vols
18-2 (10-0) 16-6 (8-0)
UCONN LEADS 16-9
Home: 6-4
Away: 5-3
Neutral: 5-2
01/16/95 #2 UConn 77, #1 UT 66 Storrs, Conn.
04/02/95 #1 UConn 70, #3 UT 64 Minneapolis, Minn.
01/06/96 #2 UConn 59, #4 UT 53 Knoxville, Tenn.
03/29/96 #4 UT 88, #2 UConn 83 (OT) Charlotte, N.C.
01/05/97 #1 UConn 72, #8 UT 57 Hartford, Conn.
03/24/97 #10 UT 91, #1 UConn 81 Iowa City, Iowa
01/03/98 #1 UT 84, #3 UConn 69 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/10/99 #2 UT 92, #1 UConn 81 Storrs, Conn.
01/08/00 #1 UConn 74, #2 UT 67 Knoxville, Tenn.
02/02/00 #4 UT 72, #1 UConn 71 Storrs, Conn.
04/02/00 #1 UConn 71, #2 UT 52 Philadelphia, Pa.
12/30/00 #1 UConn 81, #2 UT 76 Hartford, Conn.
02/01/01 #3 UT 92, #2 UConn 88 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/05/02 #1 UConn 86, #2 UT 72 Knoxville, Tenn.
03/29/02 #1 UConn 79, #6 UT 56 San Antonio, Texas
01/04/03 #3 UConn 63, #5 UT 62 (OT) Hartford, Conn.
04/08/03 #1 UConn 73, #5 UT 68 Atlanta, Ga.
02/05/04 #4 UConn 81, #1 UT 67 Knoxville, Tenn.
04/06/04 #6 UConn 70, #2 UT 61 New Orleans, La.
01/08/05 #10 UT 68, #15 UConn 67 Hartford, Conn.
01/07/06 #1 UT 89, #7 UConn 80 Knoxville, Tenn.
01/06/07 #4 UT 70, #5 UConn 64 Hartford, Conn.
1/23/20 #3 UConn 60 #23 Tennessee 45 Storrs, Conn.
1/29/21 #3 UConn 67 #25 Tennessee 61 Knoxville, Tenn.
02/06/22 #10 UConn 75, #7 Tennessee 56 Hartford, Conn.
Tennessee has had two seasons so far this year. They played a really tough schedule early on. They opened the season with then No. 14 Ohio State losing 87-75. They followed that with a 74-65 win over UMass and then a loss to at the time No. 12 Indiana 79-67. They beat Rutgers 94-54, and then a two game losing streak to UCLA and Gonzaga, two teams that are now ranked. That made them 2-4 to start the season with all four losses against team that are now ranked 2, 6, 9 and 16. And they dropped from No. 4 to unranked.
Over the next 16 games, the Lady Vols have gone 14-2 with their only losses against then No. 9 Virginia Tech 59-56 and then No. 2 Stanford 77-70. That makes 0-6 against ranked teams. Well, one caveat with the Tennessee beating then unranked Colorado, who is now No. 24 after popping up in the rankings this week. The Buffalos just lost to Stanford to maybe they drop out of the rankings as quickly as they entered.
With no signature win, Tennessee will have a few chances to improve their NCAA standing. This game against UConn and then No. 3 LSU right after. A tough back to back series. And their last chance for a big win is against No. 1 South Carolina at the end of the regular season before the SEC tournament.
Comparative Team Statistics
Leader in Bold
UConn Tennessee
81.7 PPG 77.4
58.4 Defensive PPG 64.5
23.3 Scoring Margin 12.9
52.3 Field Goal % 45.3
34.5 Defensive FG% 37.8
39.8 Three Point % 30.9
27.9 Defensive 3PT% 31.3
74.9 Free Throw % 70.1
42.4 Rebounds/game 43.3
13.6 Rebounding Margin 10.9
21.1 Assists per game 15.8
16.8 Turnover per game 14.8
1.3 Assists/TO ratio 1.1
7.0 Steals per game 7.6
UCONN
are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
UConn Injuries
Concussion Protocal
Out for undetermined time
Knee Injury
OUT FOR THE SEASON
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Tennessee Lady Vols
Tennessee Starters
Tennessee Bench
OUT FOR THE SEASON
Game Analysis
For the purposes of this analysis I am doing what Coach Harper should have done already. Put Rickea Jackson, their best player, in the starting lineup.
I don't always do a player by player comparison, but the Tennessee-UConn game is one that I do it with. The match ups are how I expect UConn to guard Tennessee, not position by position.
5'10" Junior Nika Muhl
6.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 8.8 APG, 167 assists, 67 TO, 26 steals
vs
5'8" Grad Student Jordan Walker
4.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.9 APG, 64 assists, 33 TO, 25 steals
Muhl is maybe the best pure point guard in the country. She doesn't score but she doesn't look to score either. And her defense is as good as any guard. Look for Nika to pick her opponent's pocket at least one time. Nika said she was mad that Geno benched her two years ago when the Huskies went to Knoxville. So she is very excited to play on that court. The look on her face when she said that should scare the hell out of Tennessee. An extra motivated Nika?
Walker is a quick guard with a decent handle. Her shooting is just awful at 34% from the field and 16.7% on threes. Nika won't make it any easier for her. She was a starter at the beginning of the season and went to the bench and is now starting again. Not the consistency you want from the point guard position.
Advantage UConn
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6'1 Grad Student Lou Lopez Senechal
16.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.7 APG, 34 assists, 40 TO, 11 steals
vs
6'1" Junior Tess Darby
7.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.0 APG, 22 assists, 15 TO, 18 steals
Where would UConn be without the Grad Transfer Lopez Senechal? She doesn't do everything great, like ball handling and she is not a premier defender, but her shooting has been outstanding and with Fudd and Ducharme out, she is the main three point threat. Shooting 49.4% from the field and 49% on threes, she is just a natural scorer. Pull up jumpers, drives to the basket and long range, she can do it all.
Darby is by far the best three point threat on the Lady Vols. She shoots them at 40% and takes twice as many as any other player on the team. She doesn't really do much else on offense. Not a great passer she has taken 129 shots, with 103 of them from behind the line. She is also not the best defender. Not particularly quick, she struggles to keep her opponent in front of her.
Advantage UConn
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6'1" Redshirt Junior Aubrey Griffin
13.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.2 APG, 21 assists, 37 TO, 30 steals
vs
6'2" Senior Jordon Horston
15.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 3.5 APG, 71 assists, 48 TO, 30 steals
This is going to be a great matchuip. More so Griffin's defense vs Horston's offense.
Horston is really athletic and also a strong player and a very good leaper. Her outside shooting is spotty. She only shoots 44% from the field and 28.6% on threes. Her offensive game is on the fast break and driving to the basket in their half court sets. But once she gets a head of steam she is tough to stop.
The polar opposite is Griffin. She is so efficient. Aubrey shoots 59% from the field and a decent 33% on threes. She is impossible to stop around the basket with her long arms and legs and quick moves.
Defense is not Horston's strong suit. Two premier athletes going 1-1.
Advantage Even
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6'3" Junior Aaliyah Edwards
17.2 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, 57 assists, 56 TO, 22 steals, 24 blks
vs
6'2" Senior Rickea Jackson
18.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.2 APG, 24 assists, 47 TO, 16 steals, 4 blks
Another great matchup. With Fudd out for UConn, Edwards is the leading scorer for UConn and Jackson is the leading scorer for Tennessee. Aaliyah has been playing at an AA clip, scoring 20+ points in four games in a row and 8 out of her last 12 games. She has added a hard dribble drive to the basket to her game and her elbow jumper has been very consistent. What also stands out is her defense, jumping the passing lanes for break away layups. She has perfect technique in boxing out and is just an outstanding rebounder and great at starting the fast break.
It's been a strange season for Jackson, a senior transfer from Mississippi State. She was held out for unannounced reasons earlier in the season. It was a coaches decision and not an injury or illness. And when she was allowed back, she came off the bench instead of starting. But she is a starter in minutes for sure. Jackson is a terrific talent with a great perimeter game and a terrific finisher around the basket. She loves to do a little crossover dribble in the lane to free herself for a jumper. She is very efficient as shoots 56% from the field. Tennessee needs her to have a big game.
Slight Advantage UConn
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6'5" Grad Student Dorka Juhasz
14.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 47 assists, 24 TO, 18 steals, 20 blks
vs
6'3 Sophomore Karoline Striplin
5.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG, .8 APG, 16 assists, 16 TO, 9 steals, 11 blks
This might be UConn's biggest advantage.
Juhasz has had a fantastic year, averaging a double-double. And not only that she is a fantastic passer. A 2-1 assist to turnover ratio for a center is pretty much unheard of. Geno was right when he said she could be a top 5 WNBA draft pick. UConn lost their only two games when she was out with her broken finger.
Striplin is who Coach Harper decided on to start at center. But she is only playing 13 MPG and really shares the position with Franklin and Hollingshead. A very strong player, she is surprisingly a good shooter. She is foul prone so we will see how long she lasts in the game.
Advantage UConn
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Bench
6'5 Sophomore Amari Deberry
6'2" Freshman Anaya Patterson
5'9" Freshman Ina Bettencourt
vs
6'2" Sophomore Forward Sara Puckett
5'6" Senior Guard Jasmine Powell
6'1" Grad Forward Jasmine Franklin
6'5" Sophomore Center Jillian Hollingshead
This is the only clear cut advantage for Tennessee. When UConn subs, their play suffers. Not the same for Tennessee. But that is mostly because other than Horston and Jackson, the players are interchangable.
Geno will play his subs to rest his starters unless it's a blowout. Everything would be different if Fudd and Ducharme were available but unfortunately they are not. With who he has in a game like this he typically plays his starters 35+ minutes each. I would look for that again.
Harper loves to substitue. She will bring in 3 players at a time every 4-5 minutes. Is that good or bad? So far it's been ok. Powell comes in at the point guard replacement and she has been inconsistent at best. Franklin and Hollingshead are part of the three headed center position. And Puckett has actually been starting with Jackson on the bench.
Advantage Tennessee
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Coach
Do I really have to do a comparison here? The best coach over the last 25 years vs a coach in her fourth season at her Alma Mater.
Geno has been the standard for a long time now. With 11 national championships and after passing Pat he has 1099 wins and better than .885 winning percentage, he is without peer at this time. He continues to recruit at the highest level.
Kellie Jolly Harper is a terrific young coach that is building a very nice resume. She has coached at Western Carolina, NC State, Missouri State and now Tennessee. Her 2020 class was not that great and her 2021 class was not that much better. And she had only one 2022 recruit and zero for 2023.
Even with one more year of experience, Harper continues to make mistakes in time outs and substitutions. And mistakes in this game will be consequential.
It's really not close.
Advantage UConn
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Intangibles
There should be over 10,000 fans at Thompson Boiling Arena. They will make a difference.
Advantage Tennessee
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Final Prediction
UConn has an advantage at almost every position. Tennessee has the stronger bench, but the only thing that happens when Tennessee goes to the bench is UConn still has the advantage.
The two headed point guards for Tennessee Walker and Powell, will be no match for Muhl. It's certainly possible that Tennessee will have a breakout shooting game, but teams usualy are who they are. The Lady Vols best chance is to play lock down defense, but 1-1 they aren't a great defensive team. It will be interesting who will cover Edwards. At 6'3" and with her strength and quickness combination, she will cause all sorts of problems for Tennessee. And the 5th year center Juhasz will use her expereince to give both sophomore centers for the Lady Vols a lesson.
Tennessee will need a big game from Horston, but has she recovered from her illness that kept her out of their pervious game? And she hasn't seen a defender like Griffin before.
Tennessee has won their last 9 games, but all against a weak Wofford team and then 8 wins against the bottom of the SEC standings. They needed an 8-0 run at the end of the game to squeak out a win against a mediocre Missouri team in their last outing. They only averaged 68 PPG in their last 4 outings I would imagine UConn would only give up in the low 60's. Tennessee does play some great defense at times, so they could hold UConn to a few points under their average of 81 PPG
I can see a 75-63 win for the Huskies. UConn by 12+.
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