I forgot to post about big doings for a couple of UConn Alumni.
One of my favorite players, Morgan Tuck, had to finally succumb to her bad knees after only 5 years in the WNBA. She is only 26 years old.
She won 4 National Championships along with her buddy Breanna Stewart. She also won 5 gold medals for USA basketball.
A big heart with a bum knee. Sad to see, but I'm sure she will have a great life and contribute to whatever path that leads her to. Good luck Morgan!
And another great UConn player, Jen Rizzoti was fired from her head coaching position at George Washington. Coincidentally, she coach GW for the same 5 years that Morgan played in the WNBA. Before GW, Rizzoti coached at Hartford for several years.
As a player, we all remember Jen as the sparkplug on UConn's first National Championship team and earning National Player of he Year awards.
This season the UConn players are shooting 51.3% from the field and 71.2% from the charity stripe. How does that compare to previous years? Let's see...
The steady decline in overall shooting & free throw accuracy is a bit disturbing. Those 2016 & 2017 teams had Lou, Kia, Gabby and Pheesa. Very good shooting group. This year's group is young, so the accuracy should improve for the freshman. Then add in Azzi, CD4 next year and things should be leaps and bounds better.
You probably know by now that I put a lot of stock in Massey results, not just the rankings but expected margin of victory and probability of winning.
I thought I’d look at the path to the final four for each of the top four seeds, making the simplifying assumption that chalk holds, and their respective opponents are the 16, 8, 4 and 2 seeds. Of course, if there’s an upset (other than to the top four seeds) the probability should get a little better unless you believe that, for example, if Tennessee can beat Baylor that means they are really better than Baylor.
Top Seed
Opponent
Probability of winning
1 UConn
16 High Point
100%
8 Syracuse
93%
4 Kentucky
91%
2 Baylor
60%
Cumulative (probability of making it to Final Four)
51%
Top Seed
Opponent
Probability of winning
1 Stanford
16 Utah Valley
100%
8 Oklahoma State
92%
4 Arkansas
86%
2 Louisville
81%
Cumulative (probability of making it to Final Four)
64%
Top Seed
Opponent
Probability of winning
1 South Carolina
16 Mercer
99%
8 Oregon State
79%
4 West Virginia
84%
2 Maryland
50%
Cumulative (probability of making it to Final Four)
33%
Top Seed
Opponent
Probability of winning
1 NC State
16 NC A&T
98%
8 South Florida
79%
4 Indiana
50%
2 Texas A&M
57%
Cumulative (probability of making it to Final Four)
22%
Probability that all four teams make it to the final four – 2%
A couple things jumped out at me. Massey has a South Carolina – Maryland game as a pick ‘em
Massey sees Indiana as a tougher opponent for NC State than Texas A&M
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