UCONN @ Baylor
Day: Monday
Date: March 29th, 2021
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: San Antonio, TX
TV: ESPN
1 Seed UConn 27-1 2 Seed Baylor 28-2
Head to Head games
BAYLOR | UCONN
BAYLOR | UCONN
Series Tied 4-4
H: 2-2 | A: 1-2 | N: 1-0
04/04/10 #1 UConn 70, #14 Baylor 50 San Antonio, Texas
11/16/10 #1 UConn 65, #2 Baylor 64 Hartford, Conn.
12/18/11 #1 Baylor 66, #2 UConn 61 Waco, Texas
02/18/13 #1 Baylor 76, #3 UConn 70 Hartford, Conn.
01/13/14 #1 UConn 66, #7 Baylor 55 Waco, Texas
11/17/16 #3 UConn 72, #2 Baylor 61 Storrs, Conn.
01/03/19 #8 Baylor 68, #1 UConn 57 Waco, Texas
1/09/20 #6 Baylor 74, #1 UConn 58 Storrs, Conn.
The player and coaches names for both teams
are clickable to see their Bios
So we can drop the "Baylor has too much size for UConn" argument. It's just not true.
UConn is going to want to run and run and run in this game. UConn is in great shape because of their difficult practices and the many minutes the starters play in games. The big question about this team is their three point shooting. It's been a disappointment this season. If UConn can hit above 35% in this game, Baylor is in trouble. That is certainly doable.
Defensively, UConn will have an easier time in this game compared to last year. Without the outside game of Landrum, Cox and Cooper this year, UConn is going to be able to help off the ball more and defend Smith and/or Egbo with the occasional double team.
04/04/10 #1 UConn 70, #14 Baylor 50 San Antonio, Texas
11/16/10 #1 UConn 65, #2 Baylor 64 Hartford, Conn.
12/18/11 #1 Baylor 66, #2 UConn 61 Waco, Texas
02/18/13 #1 Baylor 76, #3 UConn 70 Hartford, Conn.
01/13/14 #1 UConn 66, #7 Baylor 55 Waco, Texas
11/17/16 #3 UConn 72, #2 Baylor 61 Storrs, Conn.
01/03/19 #8 Baylor 68, #1 UConn 57 Waco, Texas
1/09/20 #6 Baylor 74, #1 UConn 58 Storrs, Conn.
This match up has always been a great game and an indicator on how good these two teams have been during the Geno/Kim era. It's been a very competitive series, with the series tied 4-4.
Mulkey chickened out during the last two Stewart years after seeing what she could do to her team. So, back she came two seasons ago and ended UConn's 126 game regular season winning streak with a 68-57 win in Waco 2 year ago. UConn was ranked No. 1 and Baylor was ranked No. 8. And last season with UConn ranked No. 1 and Baylor No. 6, the Bears defeated the Huskies 74-58 ending UConn's 98 game home winning streak. Think Geno doesn't remember the last two seasons?
Here were my observations from last year's game.
Christyn Williams was great for a long time in this game. Strong on the boards and fearless in the paint, she did a lot of hard work to keep this game close for a long time. Crystal Dangerfield can shoot from LONG range. She forced a couple but hit a few clutch threes to stop Baylor from extending their lead. Walker looked like an AA early on. Not much after that. Geno put Irwin on Cox in the fourth quarter and she was 1-7 from the field as Kyla bodied her up.
That was about it for good things that happened. Even I can't find the silver lining in this dark cloud of a performance.
Olivia Nelson-Ododa was just really really bad in this game in every aspect of her play. She was timid. She was weak. She was indecisive. The refs in this game let Baylor play really physical and that is to the Bear's benefit and Cox took advantage of that to push Olivia off the block and bodied her up so Olivia next got a good look. After a while it was clear that Cox got in Olivia's head and took her out of the game completely.
The freshmen played like freshmen, not ready for prime time although Griffin was fouled several times on her rebounding efforts and nothing was called.
Baylor is a good team, but they were there to be had. Credit them for playing tough both physically and mentally. And credit Kim for her classy comments after the game.
Folks seem to only remember that UConn was blown out by 16 in this game. But it was 55-54 Baylor with 5:42 left in the game. Yes, the team fell apart the last 5:42, but that doesn't change that they had a chance to win this game. As you will read further on, this is not close to the same UConn team.
Last Years Full Game
And if you can't stand to watch the entire game,
here are the game highlights
Comparative Team Statistics
Leader In Bold
UConn Baylor
83.1 PPG 82.4
51.5 Defensive PPG 54.9
31.6 Scoring Margin 27.5
51.9 Field Goal % 48.7
33.3 Defensive FG% 32.3
35.1 Three Point % 33.4
27.0 Defensive 3PT 27.1
72.0 Free Throw % 71.3
41.9 Rebounds/game 48.7
12.2 Rebounding Margin 19.2
21.2 Assists per game 20.5
14.2 Turnover per game 16.1
1.5 Assists/TO ratio 1.3
9.9 Steals per game 9.5
5.7 Blocks per game 5.2
It looks pretty close statistically to me. But UConn does lead in every category except rebounding and rebounding margin.
UCONN
The player and coaches names for both teams
are clickable to see their Bios
UConn Starters
*******************************************************************
BAYLOR
Baylor Starters
Game Analysis
Here we go again, another match up between two of the better programs in WCBB. Right now, with Baylor winning the last two games between these two teams, the series is tied 4-4. Last year's game was a kick in the ass, but it did give me a kind of blueprint to what this game might look like.
*** Nike Muhl out with that ankle sprain.
One of the advantages I hear that Baylor has is their size. Is that really the case? At least in who is going to get minutes in this game?
Nope.
Nope.
Baylor starts 6'3" Junior Egbo, 6'2" Junior NaLyssa Smith, 6'1" Senior DiDi Richards, 5'6" Senior Moon Ursin and 5'10" RS Junior Trinity Oliver.
UConn starts 6'5" Junior Oliva Nelson-Ododa, 6'3"Freshman Aaliyah Edwards, 6'0" RS Junior Evina Westbrook, , 5'11" Junior Christyn Williams, and 5'11" Freshman Paige Bueckers.
Looks pretty even to me.
Off the bench Baylor will play 5'11" DiJonai Carrington and 6' Caitlin Bickles. That is all that saw minutes against Michigan.
UConn has off the bench 6'2" Sophomore Aubrey Griffin, and 6'1" Anna Markurat.
If you didn't notice, I still have Edwards starting. Even if Nika is available, she won't start against Baylor. Geno hates breaking up a good thing and Edwards/Nelson-Ododa is just too good to change.
So we can drop the "Baylor has too much size for UConn" argument. It's just not true.
So how do the teams match up in ability?
Last season they started three guards with 5'8" guard T'ea Cooper, 5'8" Juicy Landrum and 6'1" DiDi Richards. Only Richards returns. The two guards replacing Cooper and Landrum in the starting lineup are Ursin and Oliver. No other way to look at it other than a big step down. Richards is not a big offensive threat. She hasn't taken a three point shot all season. Her claim to fame is her great defense as she is the returning Defensive POY. She is not an outside threat, taking only one three point shoot and missing that one. Ursin kept getting better and better as the season went on. She is the true second scoring threat behind Smith.
The two bigs in the starting lineup are the driving force for the Baylor teams. Smith can be a beast out there but has been more consistent this season. She is the leading scorer and rebounder on the team. She is an aggressive player that loves to attack the basket and hits the boards hard. She is always a possible double-double player. Her close to 4 offensive rebounds per game are a big part of Baylor's success. The Queen, Egbo, is a mixed bag. She certainly has talent, but she is a foul waiting to happen.
Baylor has a long bench, as I mentioned, but only two players are guaranteed minutes in this game and that is Carrington and Bickle. Carrington is a solid player who plays a smart and controlled game. She has been terrific in the tournament and without her they don't beat Michigan. Bickle is a good player as well. Her best ability is rebounding the ball where she is third on the team. She is only 6' but uses her strong body to carve out position for rebounds.
Based on the Michigan game, I don't expect Baylor to go much deeper than 6 players with minutes. Baylor had 4 players with 44 or 45 minutes in the OT game. Egbo and Bickle split their 45 minutes.
I don't think I've seen Mulkey with such a short leash. Starter Trinity Oliver play ONE minutes, and she was taken out, never to reenter the game. Kim, just start Carrington and get it over with!
Offensively, Baylor will look to get it inside to Smith and Egbo. They will drive hard to the basket and try to finish at the rim or dish to a big. As I mentioned, they just won't take many threes. And it's probably a good thing despite what Charlie Creme says. They don't shot it well. Where they shine is grabbing their misses and putting the ball back in the basket. Offensive rebounding is where they do their damage. UConn will have to work hard to secure the defensive rebounds. Baylor will also try to turn defense into offense. They love to run and throw that alley-oop pass off the break to Smith. The Huskies will have to get back quickly on defense after a miss.
Baylor relies on offensive rebounding for their scoring. However, year after year, Baylor is known for their many high scoring games against weak opponents. I did a study one time about how many times they scored more in the fourth quarter in easy wins than the other quarters. Kim doesn't let her team let up. It's her philosophy, love it or hate it.
This year was no different. They are billed as one of the best rebounding teams in the country. But that is built on the backs of their weak opponents, including the unusually weak conference teams. Over the first 9 games against a terrible OOC schedule they averaged 53 RPG. Over the rest of the schedule? 46 RPG. Big difference. Now, I'm not saying they don't have a terrific rebounding team. They do. But it's not this huge advantage over UConn.
Baylor will play a tough man-to-man defense. They use their long arms to defend to disrupt their opponents and get into the passing lanes. Especially Richards. She is a tough on the ball defender. They love to double the ball once it's in the paint and look for steals. They all seem to have quick hands. It's a real strength and the Huskies will have to be looking for that.
One of the key match ups will be Defensive POY Richards covering Bueckers. I can't wait for that one. Richards is just difficult to play against. Her long arms and active posture makes life miserable for whoever she is guarding. The flip side is that I don't believe I have seen a player better with the ball than Bueckers. Her long arms, dribbling ability and intuitive play makes her a nightmare to defend 1-1. You can bet I will be focusing my eyes on those two players.
UConn is going to want to run and run and run in this game. UConn is in great shape because of their difficult practices and the many minutes the starters play in games. The big question about this team is their three point shooting. It's been a disappointment this season. If UConn can hit above 35% in this game, Baylor is in trouble. That is certainly doable.
While Baylor has some size, I don't believe they have anyone to guard the new and improved ONO. Neither Smith or Ogno can defend Nelson-Ododa like Cox did last year. Geno will likely start Edwards to help counter the Smith/Egbo duo.
Defensively, UConn will have an easier time in this game compared to last year. Without the outside game of Landrum, Cox and Cooper this year, UConn is going to be able to help off the ball more and defend Smith and/or Egbo with the occasional double team.
I watched the Baylor -Michigan game and came away unimpressed with this version of the Bears. They still have a strong interior game. They have to, as their outside shooting is really suspect. However I was impressed with their mid-range game. Short jumpers by Smith, Ursin and Richards were very effective. Ursin may be short but her stocky build and fearless game lets her grab rebounds.
Let's just look at the individual match ups.
PG - 5'11" Freshman Paige Bueckers vs 6'1" Senior DiDi Richards.
I first wrote this game preview before their match up was cancelled due to Covid. And I made this comparison even. No advantage. But that was early in the season and while Paige was great, I didn't know how great she would be.
Bueckers has been her great self in the NCAA tournament averaging 20.7 PPG, 6 APG and 7.7 RPG. Her shooting percentage are a little down so far but that doesn't change her impact in the games so far.
Richards is a terrific defensive player. Hey, she's defending DPOY. Her reputation is well deserved. But I'm not sure she has seen anyone like Bueckers this year. She might slow her down but not the entire game. Offensively she does a great job distributing the ball averaging 7.3 APG. But scoring? Not so much. She is only shooting 27.7% from the field and hasn't taken a three point shot - ALL YEAR. Not a good thing for a point guard.
I know that Richards is a great defensive player, but Bueckers will get hers and Richards is really a scoring liability. Potential POY vs Potential DPOY?
Advantage UConn
SG - 5'11" Junior Christyn Williams vs 5'6" Senior Moon Ursin.
Williams is having a terrific Junior season and has really turned it on in the tournament. Not only is she averaging 17 PPG in the tournament, she is shooting threes at a 41.1% clip. Her defense has been as good as anyone I've seen this year. She is playing like an All-American.
Ursin has had a very good tournament averaging 21.6 PPG and has really turned into a great player. Strong physically, she can get to the basket on drives and has a nice pull up jumper. She doesn't take a lot of threes but is the best long range shooter on the team, and is 5-9 in the tournament.
I think both players are really good offensively, but it's Williams defense that makes the difference here.
Advantage UConn
SF - 6' RS Junior Evina Westbrook vs 5'11" Senior Dijonai Carrington.
Westbrook has had a great tournament and that last game against Iowa was maybe her best of the season. One rebound short of a triple double. But she has been inconsistent from game to game other than her terrific rebounding. She does seem to be on a mission.
Carrington has been a god-send for Baylor. Pretty much a DeFacto starter she has made a big difference on the court for the Lady Bears. She is averaging 16.6 PPG in the tournament. But her three point shooting is an issue. Only 4-17 in the tournament.
Two very experienced players, but I've got to give this to Evina by an eyelash...lol.
Advantage UConn
PF - 6'3" Freshman Aaliyah Edwards vs 6'2" Junior NaLyssa Smith.
This was thought to be Baylor's big advantage. Whoever had to play against Smith would be at a big disadvantage. But with Smith and Edwards going head to head, that advantage is minimal.
Edwards is shining and has been in the last 10-15 games. And in the tournament she is averaging 18 PPG and is shooting 22-26 from the field. Amazing.
Now, Smith is one of my favorite players. I love her game. That is why I'm so happy to have Edwards on the Husky roster. I'm not sure how often Smith faces a player with equal physical ability. In the tournament Smith is averaging 19 PPG and is shooting 26-33 from the field. just as amazing.
I know this will make Baylor fans cringe, but I'm calling this match up
EVEN
C - 6'5" Junior Olivia Nelson-Ododa vs 6'3" Junior Queen Egbo.
Nelson-Ododa has really come on this season and the question was always how she will play against better and bigger players. I believe she has answered that question for several games now. Her passing ability from the post makes her unique. And she is rebounding really well. That will be huge for UConn.
Egbo has had a tough time staying on the court earlier in the season but seems to be over that issue. And only against small teams has she had big games. She only played 30 minutes in the OT win against Michigan and was not a big factor in that game.
Advantage UConn
Bench
6'2" Sophmore Forward Aubrey Griffin, 6'1" Sophomore Guard/Forward Anna Makurat
vs
6' Junior Forward Caitlin Bickle, 5'10" Sophomore Guard Trinity Oliver.
It's really not a close call here. Griffin will give Edwards a blow and let Edwards slide to center and give Nelson-Ododa a rest. And Makurat can swing into any and all positions with her size and shooting ability.
Bickle is the only player what will see serious time off the bench. She might hit a three or two if left open and take a charge. But her game impact will be minimal. Oliver played one minute against Michigan. Enough said. This one is an easy call.
Advantage UConn
Coaching - Geno Auriemma vs Kim Mulkey.
Kim is great. Geno is greater. Just ask Kim. She admits it. "I won't be out-coaching Geno".
Advantage UConn
Wow seven comparisons and UConn has the advantage in 6 and 1 is even. That surprises me but it's how I see it. Now, the advantages aren't big but they are there.
Game Prediction
Sometimes the outcome is clear as day to me. This is a bad match up for Baylor. They lost too much from last year in Cooper, Landrum and especially Cox. UConn has replaced their losses of Walker and Dangerfield with Westbrook and Bueckers. And while they have some size, Egbo is an Enigma and Gusters, who needs a guster of wind behind her to stay with Nelson-Ododa, won't see the light of day. I can't imagine Nelson-Ododa going 0-8 from the field again like last season, can you? And Edwards has become a difference maker.
Their guard play is good but a few steps below UConn's level. Baylor has a dilemma. If Richards covers Bueckers then who covers Williams? And who covers Westbrook? Overall the advantage that UConn has over Baylor is it's guard play. It's an advantage UConn has over every team. Best guard rotation in the country. That means something.
I'm going with UConn by 8+.
great analysis, as usual. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteActually, the BU Defensive FG% is better, by not much, than UConn.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your wonderful analysis!! You rock!!
ReplyDelete